Friday, December 29, 2006

Winter Rain??

Another storm system is affecting areas of the plains already today, areas of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska have had heavy snow reports throughout the afternoon. In some reports, thundersnow was mentioned with the snow accumulating over 3 inches an hour. Highest totals so far have been featured in the Colorado mountains, where over 2 feet of snow just today has occurred. Look for highest snow totals on the plains to be featured from northwest Kansas through central Nebraska, where areas may see over 18 inches of snow. Higher snow amounts may also be seen in central Dakotas, although a foot is likely to be the highest amount possible. The snow will taper off in amounts to the west and east of the heavy bands forecasted in those areas… Other snowfall is likely by Sunday/Monday across central Minnesota although highest amounts there are likely in the 2-5 inch range.

As for Iowa, looks like another rain event for the state through Sunday afternoon. Rain today has tapered off for a while, although more is likely tonight and tomorrow. Several bands of rain are likely to make their way through the state over the weekend, even as temperatures slowly fall during the day on Sunday. Finally by Sunday evening it does look like areas of northwest Iowa may be cold enough to handle some snowfall, although amounts at this time are looking to only be 1-2 inches at most. That snow may make for some slippery conditions, but nothing very hazardous seems likely right now. Nonetheless, travelers for New Year’s parties may want to keep an eye out if anything changes as systems like this could easily change tracks or become slightly cooler or warmer and thus change precipitation form. But, for now the latest forecast is looking like rain even though winter is supposed to be here!

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Another Potential Winter Storm

Well if you haven’t been paying attention to the forecasts, another system is making its’ way onto the plains in the next couple of days and has the potential for winter weather once again. Currently, the forecast is varied depending on what model you go with and what TV station or NWS office you listen too. The best choice as of right now is looking at mainly a rain forecast for the state of Iowa, at least until Saturday. Saturday is when the forecast gets a bit trickier, with cold air really moving in as we are northwest of the low. Potential is there for some freezing rain as well as the changeover from rain to snow as the night goes on. Entering the day on Sunday looks to have all snow in the forecast through much of the state, but exact amounts are going to depend on how fast the system moves and how much moisture is still in the atmosphere by this time.

Total amounts are not being discussed at the moment, not at least for areas of IA/MN as well as eastern NE/SD beings the snowfall shouldn’t begin in those areas until Sunday. Thus, with it still that far out in the forecast, the NAM hasn’t yet been able to grasp whether or not the snow will fall or the rain will continue. They do agree on the forecast out to Saturday night, with areas of western/central Nebraska as well as adjacent areas of South Dakota receiving the snowfall. By Sunday the snow begins to make its’ way northeastward as well, with the GFS making the snowline roughly Norfolk, NE to Sioux Falls continuing to the Twin Cities. Those snowfall amounts just north of the line aren’t terribly impressive yet looking at basic snow ratios, but looking at BUFKIT data for better forecasted amounts there may be potential for 6-9 inches of snow in those areas.

Still a lot of things to be worked out, areas of NE/SD and others to be affected by this storm already before the work week is over can start to hone in on the amounts. Areas further east are going to have to wait at least another 24 hours to see how the NAM treats this storm and thus the forecasted snow amounts become better defined. Look for another update in that 24 hours for the areas of Iowa to have their first snowfall forecast from this system!

Monday, December 25, 2006

Merry Christmas!

Hope everybody has a great Christmas and safe travels to wherever you are headed, although most of your traveling may have been done over the weekend. The forecast for Christmas looks good, featuring temperatures from the lower to mid 30s throughout the state of Iowa. Christmas lows should drop to the lower teens in northwest Iowa, while some lower 20s in the southeast. The only foreseeable problem with the forecast may be the slightly breezy winds, northwest winds 10-20 mph seem likely across the state with some gusts likely getting up to that 25 mph mark.

Dry week until Thursday/Friday when the next system should be making its’ way onto the plains and thus bringing the chance once again for some type of winter weather. Of course this far out it is hard to make a good estimation of how the system looks and thus I won’t say too much more about it at this point. Just to keep a watch out as things may be able to get a little interesting before the weekend…

Friday, December 22, 2006

Winter Storm Bust!

Well, at least for the portions of Iowa that were expecting a sign of winter this was a big time snowfall bust. The system was there and it put down plenty of precipitation, unfortunately just not in the frozen form of snow. Instead areas of northwest Iowa and much of the surrounding areas ended up with rain, some freezing rain on occasions and then yesterday into today some dense fog. Other areas to the north in central Minnesota did get a good mix of winter precip along with our areas to the west. Some areas of central/western Nebraska did get close to a foot of snow, with areas of Colorado getting snow measured in feet!

All in all, another winter storm bust for some areas of the plains… Currently there is a slight chance of some snow just before Christmas that may be able to make some things white. But, don’t be hoping for anything as it certainly looks like it will be a green/brown christmas instead of the hopeful white one.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Pre-Christmas Winter Storm

Update #4

Rain has fallen most of the night and is currently still occurring, the roadways are wet and the ground is very mushy with the large amounts of rain that have fallen over the past 24 hours. Winter Weather Advisory still in effect for the counties of Dickinson, Osceola and Lyon counties in northwest Iowa, surrounding areas of southwest Minnesota as well as South Dakota are in at least an advisory as well. Look for raining conditions to continue into the afternoon, then changing over to snow as the temperature begins to drop around 3 pm today… This will likely cause some freezing conditions on roadways making travel hazardous once again. Snowfall amounts are still variable with warmer than expected temperatures so far in the area, thus rainfall turning over to light snow is the likely wording you will hear today. Thus, icy conditions are the reasoning behind the advisory.

Only rain here to speak of, had ice last night but with slightly warmer temperatures and the rain that has melted off. Look for icy conditions to develop once again this evening/tonight however…

Winter Arrives!!

Update #3

As winter official begins with December 21st, winter also arrives with the feeling of ice and the forecast of more ice/snow. Currently sitting at temperatures right at freezing, with light rain falling for the past couple of hours is creating some hazardous conditions finally. Roadways in northwest Iowa are beginning to freeze over, thus partly covered with ice conditions probably exist across many of the roads. The ice is also audible thanks to the wind which is slowly swaying the trees giving the all ominous sound of crackling. So at least a light layer of ice exists across the area…

Winter Weather Advisory still in effect for Iowa counties north of highway 20 and west of highway 4, although icy conditions do exist just east of highway 4 as well. Although this advisory does not begin until 6 am, as you can tell the conditions will deteriorate rapidly in some areas, still looking for light accumulations of ice throughout the night and morning, potentially with some rain before turning over to all snow with 2-4 inches of accumulation possible.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Pre-Christmas Winter Storm

Update #2

Light rain occurred off and on throughout the afternoon, total accumulation here was .03 inches. Temperature has slowly dropped since 3 pm this afternoon, we are now sitting just above freezing at 33 degrees. Expect another band of rain to work its’ way into northwest Iowa over the next couple of hours as it is currently near Onawa, IA and spread back to the southeast. This should work its’ way north and thus producing a little more rain on surfaces that may potentially freeze later tonight as the temperature continues to drop.

Expect this light rain to continue, potentially freezing during the early morning hours before turning over to snow. Snowfall amounts in areas over northwest Iowa will range from a dusting to 6 inches over extreme northwest Iowa. Just to name a few cities and their forecasted amounts:

Sioux City: 1-3 Inches
LeMars: 2-4 Inches
Sheldon: 4-7 Inches
Storm Lake: 2-4 Inches
Spencer: 3-6 Inches
Spirit Lake: 3-6 Inches
Estherville: 2-4 Inches

Pre-Christmas Winter Storm

Update #1

The NWS out of Sioux Falls has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas of northwest Iowa tonight through Thursday evening.

The counties of Lyon, Sioux and Plymouth are under this advisory from 10 pm tonight through 6 pm Thursday; Temperatures just above freezing will halt any freezing rain that was possible this morning, thus mostly rain falling this afternoon before temperatures begin to drop once again. This rain should change over to snow tonight, with heavy snow possible tomorrow morning, total accumulations at this time are forecasted to be 4-7 inches…
Other counties within the FSD warning area, including Osceola, Dickinson, O’Brien, Clay, Cherokee, Buena Vista and Ida are also under the winter weather advisory from 3 am Thursday until Midnight Thursday. Areas of freezing rain and snow should move into the area tonight, becoming all snow by Thursday morning where total snow accumulations should reach 2-4 inches. Some light ice accumulations are also possible before the snow changeover…
The rest of the state will likely be looking at mainly rain throughout this system, however counties nearby ones under the advisories will likely see a changeover to snow on Thursday as well, but only an inch or two seems likely at the moment.

Currently precipitation is rotating around this low that is centered in southwestern corner of Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle. The low should move northeast into central Kansas this afternoon giving latest pressure falls over the plains. This is putting the deformation zone, or any area near the low that will be under nearly constant precipitation over most of the state of Nebraska as well as the mountains of Colorado. Other precipitation is moving north through eastern Kansas as well as Missouri, should begin to enter the state of Iowa this afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible in southern Iowa with this system, luckily most of this will fall as rain and not freezing rain like it was last night in areas of KS/OK/TX.

Only some light rain this morning here at my house, expecting more precipitation to slowly work its’ way into the area this afternoon and the main core of the storm to begin late tonight. Any slight shift in the path could affect the amounts of snow/ice, so although this current forecast looks good, don’t be surprised to here any changes this afternoon as the low continues to move.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Winter Storm Nears…

The last couple of hours have been a flurry of Winter Storm Watches that have been issued for much of the western plains states. The watches now extend into northwestern Iowa as Sioux Falls just released their watch indicating a significant winter storm may be on its’ way. Currently the storm system is affecting areas of the southwest and southern plains states, mainly Texas/Oklahoma and into the Rockies. Ice Storm Warnings as well as Winter Storm Warnings are posted for the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma panhandle, with ice accumulations expected to be over a 1/4 of an inch. This storm will move north tonight/Tuesday and setup somewhere in Nebraska before moving off to the east on Wednesday over some portion of Iowa.

Currently the forecasted track is still fairly variable, as the system has yet to make its’ way north to setup for its’ trip east, it is quite possible for the track to change slightly either north or south. Thus, no solid forecast amounts for ice or snow have been made for the northern plains quite yet. Early indications do have areas of eastern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota with a potential 3-6 inches of snow at least. That to go along with some ice accumulations early in the storm. Northwest Iowa as well as extreme southwest Minnesota currently on on the forecast of significant ice accumulations, potentially above a 1/4 inch. Snow totals aren’t as great in this area, but 3 inches or more could easily be possible. Another update will be likely tomorrow morning and afternoon, most likely as these watches are switched over to some type of warning. In the meantime, the latest Winter Storm Watch texts from throughout the nation can be read here: NWS WSW Text’s

White Christmas?!?

Well although there are plenty of people who don’t like the snow, most of them still want a white Christmas and as of now very few have that. So, what does the forecast say about this? Well it shows that some areas of the plains may get there shot at a white Christmas thanks to this next system midweek this week. Before I go on about the track of this system and any type of precipitation, I will put the nice disclaimer that the track is highly likely to change at least somewhat in which could change what an area gets as far as precipitation goes and with the change in track/strength the temperature profiles from this storm are likely to change and thus have a change in potential precipitation type.

Now as for this system, a low pressure system breaking off from the southern jet stream should move nearly northward from the Texas panhandle into the Nebraska panhandle or at least some portion of NE. This type of low is called a Texas Hooker, sorry just had to share the great name. Once this system makes its’ way northward, which is likely to occur during the day on Tuesday, it will be picked up by a shortwave from the north. This will likely give the system upper level support that it needs to strengthen during the night Tuesday and into Wednesday as it starts to move towards the east across Nebraska and into Iowa. The track of this system should then take it into the Great Lakes region, but as it does show most of the support for the low seems to be taken away and thus weakening is expected. So, in review, areas of the western Plains are likely to be affected by this system Tuesday night into Wednesday with the potential of light freezing rain as well as snow. Snow amounts just beyond the mountains in CO and into western Nebraska and western Kansas are likely to be in the 6-12 inch range. Other areas of NE/KS and areas southeast are likely to see significant amounts of rain, over an inch likely.

As this system moves across the plains, winter weather will potentially affect areas of Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota for the most part. As the low moves across the central portions of the state as far as the current forecast goes, the areas to the south/east and thus southeast of the low will likely receive rain as the main precipitation type. Just to the north, northwest and west of the low, with warmer air still residing in some parts of the atmosphere the potential will likely be there for freezing rain. Further north of the low, approx. 75-100 miles and beyond you will then see more light snow likely with more significant snows possible northwest and west of the low about that same distance and beyond. But, as you will likely guess, the most significant winter weather that will come into play will be the freezing rain. I should get another update up tomorrow night or sometime on Tuesday to give a better idea of the track and potential hazardous conditions. For now, definitely need to keep an eye on this system as it does hold potential…

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Strong Winds bring Record Warmth

Areas of Iowa will see gusty winds today as a weather system moves over the state, some areas of the state have been put under a Wind Advisory. Areas of the state under the wind advisory may see winds average 25 to 40 mph with gusts upwards of 45 mph. Other areas of the state may not see winds that high, but still have gusty winds from the west. These gusty winds although may make it feel a bit cooler, the wind is actually partially responsible for bringing in some very warm temperatures. Temperatures across the state will be nearing the 60 degree mark in western and southern Iowa while areas of northeastern Iowa may only see temperatures in the mid 50s it is still well above normal.

So, look out for the gusty winds as you are going throughout your day as well as get out and enjoy the potential record warmth that is spreading over the area!

Monday, December 11, 2006

Surprise! Freezing Fog & Severe Weather!

Northwest Iowa is watching for the potential of freezing fog and freezing drizzle tonight into the early morning hours while central Iowa is watching a line of thunderstorms moving through with one of them being severe warned!

Very foggy conditions have hung around much of the state today and should continue through the night, this has prompted the NWS to issue Dense Fog Advisories for portions of southeastern Iowa. Although no Dense Fog Advisory is issued for northwest Iowa, the same can most likely be expected there tonight. The exception is with near freezing temperatures in that region, a more likely chance will be there for Freezing Rain/Fog. Lyon, Sioux and Plymouth counties in northwest Iowa have been listed under a Freezing Rain Advisory. Surrounding areas should still keep an eye on conditions as they could also be treacherous for driving.

The severe weather is mainly affecting a small portion of the state, as only one cell has been severe warned. But, this cell has maintained its’ severe status for over 30 minutes. Counties of Madison and Dallas were listed under the warning at 9:23 PM with the potential for penny sized hail. Madison county was dropped from this warning as the cell moved into eastern Dallas county and has maintained its’ potential for severe weather. The storm is currently to the northwest of Des Moines and looks to be moving to the north/northeast at 30 mph. The warning expires within a couple of minutes and I do not believe it will be extended, but still a lightning show and some moderate rainfall when you don’t usually see that as we near the middle of December. Hence the title of ‘Surprise!’

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Active Week

At least a little more active weather-wise, a lot more active school-wise as it is finals week! Four finals to get through this week, in fact, 4 finals to get through just in the first half of the week. A final on Monday, 2 finals on Tuesday and I’ll finish up on Wednesday with a 10-Noon final and then on my way back home for the long awaited semester break sometime Wednesday afternoon. But, now for the more active weather…

Two systems look to affect the area, one starting as soon as tomorrow. Some areas of drizzle and/or light showers are possible across the state tomorrow afternoon. But, by tomorrow night it looks like more widespread areas of rain should affect eastern Iowa. Central Iowa may see more of a light rain/drizzle event for much of the time, while areas of western Iowa may just have more of drizzle if nothing at all. The rain should last into Tuesday for areas of eastern Iowa, drizzle still possible in central Iowa and western Iowa should be dry by then. Tuesday evening should be the end for all rain over the state, although areas of drizzle/fog may still remain across the state.
The next system to move through will be a quick moving clipper, much like what the state saw midweek last week. The same path looks like it may occur, thus areas of northern Iowa may be impacted the most by it. This system is still questionable as with all clippers being such quick moving and with the lack of moisture, precipitation doesn’t look definite at this time. A light snow/rain mix is possible with this system, potentially causing some slick roadway conditions once again over northern Iowa. This system could change however, so just a lookout to be on the lookout for any drastic changes.

As for temperatures over the week, they look to be fairly steady. Highs today are reaching into the upper 40s and lower 50s across the state with lows tonight in the upper 20s to mid 30s from northwest to southeast. Mondays’ highs should range from 40 to the mid 40s across the state from north to south; Lows Monday may drop in the west with the passing of the first system while they remain mild in the east. Mid 20s in the northwest corner of the state, lower 30s in the central portion of the state and upper 30s seem likely in the east where cloudcover should hold the temperatures up. Tuesday temperatures should hover around 40 for most of the state, lows on Tuesday ranging from low/mid 20s in the west to around the 30 mark in the eastern portion of the state. Highs for the remainder of the week should range from 40-45 in the northwest, lower 40s to upper 40s in the rest of the state as they slowly rise Wednesday through Friday. Lows over that time should be in the lower 20s in the northwest while upper 20s are more likely in the southwest.

Wednesday, December 6, 2006

December 6th Clipper

A nice clipper is currently on its’ way through the state of Iowa and surrounding areas, initial forecasts for this system indicated that it would likely be too dry for any snowfall to occur or if it did only flurries would be the ones to survive to the ground. This morning a band of snow developed in areas of southeast South Dakota and made its’ way across southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa while continuing to expand to the southwest. Currently this band of snow stretches from southwestern Wisconsin through central Iowa. Although the snow is mainly light, some areas of moderate snow have been seen reducing visibilities to a mile or two at times. Winds are gusty at times and thus some blowing snow across the roadways may become hazardous if drivers are not careful. At this time it looks like the most any area should receive is an inch although most places should receive even less as the band of snow works its’ way through.

A nice little winter surprise for people in the area and goes to show how difficult winter weather forecasting can be with rapid changing conditions.

Tuesday, December 5, 2006

'Dead Week'

Well besides several colleges being in what they call dead week, the weather has seemingly taken off this week. This is the final week before Fall semester Finals begin, thus ending the semester for most college students by December 15th. I’ll get up a Finals’ forecast sometime this weekend, but for now a look at the remainder of this week and through the weekend.

Waking up tomorrow should have everybody around the state in the lower to mid 20s, while highs will vary a bit more across the state. Northern portions of the state will likely just get above 30 degrees, while southern Iowa reaches the mid 30s and potentially some upper 30s to near 40 in southwestern Iowa. Thursday night with high pressure above the state the temperatures look to drop dramatically, nearing Zero across northern Iowa. Otherwise, the rest of the state should still be in single digits with the warmest locations being in the extreme southern corners. Highs on Thursday look to be in the lower 20s across most of the state, while lows Thursday night once again drop hard in the east where lows will drop to the single digits. While a new air mass is moving into the state on Thursday night, western areas of the state will see the lower teens and central Iowa looks at around 10 for the low. This new airmass makes its’ way across the entire state by Friday, where highs from the lower 30s in the east to near the 40 degree mark along the western edges.

This weekends’ lows should be fairly steady, with Friday nights’ ranging from the lower 20s to mid 20s. Saturday nights’ lows a little warmer, from the mid 20s to potentially some upper 20s in the south. Sunday night the lows drop a little bit, but still remaining in the lower 20s for the most part although some areas of northwest Iowa may drop into the upper teens. Highs on Saturday actually look to be above normal, with highs in the east near the snowpack remaining near 40 while the western portion of the state is reaching to the 50 mark. Sundays’ highs are nearly the same, most likely a degree or two cooler than Saturday.

No precipitation looks to be in sight at the moment, if anybody sees anything it will at most be a few snow flurries although even that looks like a long shot.

Friday, December 1, 2006

Winter Storm Ends

The winter storm that went across the central Plains and has been featured in quite a few of the National news programs has finally came to an end. Some areas in Central Missouri reached snowfall totals of 17 inches to go along with strong winds in the area. Other portions of Missouri & Illinois saw more of an ice event, where nearly an inch of ice crippled the power lines. All in all, 9 different National Weather Service offices have issued special reports showing the impact of this winter storm. They ranged from Lubbock, TX through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri all the way northeastward to Chicago where areas of Illinois saw 10 inches of snow. It continued overnight as it reached into Wisconsin area as well, highest storm total from the Milwaukee, WI NWS office also indicates that 17.5 inches of snow fell! This storm was one of the worst ones that many of those areas have had for quite a while, with power being lost for over 24 hours and I’m sure some people still without power this afternoon as crews struggle getting around in the very cold temperatures. I’ve gathered together links from the NWS offices so you can go check out some pictures as well as images of the snowfall totals across their region, they’re listed below:

Lubbock, TX Snowfall Images/Totals Map

Amarillo, TX Snowfall Map

Norman, OK Enhanced Webpage Featuring Several Cool Snowfall Maps

Tulsa, OK Snowfall Report Maps

Wichita, KS Snow Report Listing

Springfield, MO Snowfall Image

Kansas City 18″ Snow Reports & Ice Storm Summary

St. Louis, MO Snowfall Report Maps

Central Illinois Snowfall Reports

Chicago, IL Snowfall Reports

Wisconsin Snowfall Reports

Thursday, November 30, 2006

The Big Picture

The storm system that has been skirting areas of Iowa yesterday and today is making quite an impact in the central US. Yesterday, the system produced several severe thunderstorms across TX/MO and prompted a tornado watch over areas of Texas that are now being hit by winter weather that is being caused from this same storm. No severe weather to speak of today, at least not yet with this system. Instead, we have winter weather warnings/advisories issued from Texas through portions of OK/AR/MO/KS/IA/IL/IL/WI/MI and the potential for more as this system continues to move east, northeastward. For the latest image on what Warnings/Advisories that have been issued, check out the US Warnings Map from the NWS.

This system is capable of producing quite the winter weather, with such cold air behind it and the ability to bring in moisture from the gulf even behind it is leading to major storm system. Forecasting ice amounts of a tenth of an inch to nearly a half inch of ice are possible in areas of MO/IL and possibly southward as well. Snow amounts in some areas are going to well exceed a foot in central MO and surroundings, with the Kansas City NWS calling for over 16 inches of snow. Even areas of Oklahoma are watching for nearly a foot of snow to fall over today and into tonight. This system could very well be affecting some areas of central plains into tomorrow morning before moving off eastward to affect the northeast. Tomorrow’s update will likely feature plots of the snowfall that occurred today/tonight in those areas providing the NWS has them available.

As for the longer term future of this system, well it could once again be a severe weather producer. As it moves into the northeast, strong southerly winds ahead of it will be bringing up nearly 60 degree dewpoints. Thus providing the area with ample instability for severe weather tomorrow afternoon given daytime heating and moisture return. A line of thunderstorms should already be underway just ahead of the front as it reaches into PA/NY tomorrow afternoon. This line of thunderstorms is likely to intensify as it enters the northeast in the afternoon hours, providing the potential for very damaging winds given the speed of the storms and already high winds that are expected in the area. Strong bow echoes from this linear system may also give way for the potential for supercells as well, capable of a tornado or two given the strong low level shear via the low pressure system. This is something that is not certain as this time, but is being monitored by the Storm Prediction Center as a possibility. Areas of the northeast should definitely be on thel ookout as this system heads there way tomorrow…

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Winter Weather Advisory

Approximately the southeastern half of Iowa has been put under a Winter Weather Advisory for this afternoon/evening. Areas of central Iowa that have been put under this advisory by the Des Moines NWS are forecasted to have a mix of precip throughout the afternoon, turning over to all snow by this evening. Sleet and possible Freezing Rain are possible in those areas, no major accumulation is expected though. Snowfall may be decent at times, total accumulations of around an inch or so can be expected for areas of central Iowa. For the latest Winter Weather Product out of Des Moines, see this link.

Areas of southeast Iowa and eastcentral Iowa are also under a Winter Weather Advisory by the Quad Cities NWS. Their forecast indicates that freezing rain accumulations do seem likely this evening during the first half of the advisory. So essentially from 6 to 9 pm the potential is there for up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. The latter half of the advisory period that goes until midnight will see snowfall as the likely precip. No major accumulations of snow are expected, but an inch seems possible. Even this inch of snow on top of any type of ice could make for a very dangerous situation on roadways, etc. Thus any traveling tonight should be done carefully. For the latest Winter Weather Message from the Quad Cities NWS, see this link.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Cold Front

The cold front is making its’ way through the state as I write, currently being marked out very well by a line of showers and occasional thundershower. Also coming along with this front is a very sharp drop in temperatures; the cold front came through the Ames area just after 5 pm. The front combined with the loss of the sun really allowed temperatures to drop quickly and they are still dropping now. Here is a cool graph from one of the Ames schools, courtesy of the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

Ames, IA 1-Minute Temperature Plot

Thus, with this passage of the cold front, tonights’ low temperatures should be in the teens for northwest Iowa. While areas of central Iowa should be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Areas of eastern Iowa may not see the cold front pass tonight, thus their lows could be in the 40s and even mid 50s in the extreme southeast. Highs tomorrow will not bounce up much, only lower 20s in northwest Iowa and near 60 where the cold front once again stalls out in the Dubuque to Cedar Rapids line. As this front passes, the precipitation will as well. Meaning areas of western Iowa and most of central Iowa should be done with the rain, although areas of eastern Iowa should see the rain holding on until Wednesday night. The snowfall forecast has dwindled for the most part with only dustings being likely over most of the state. Rain will be the most likely precip to fall over eastern Iowa, although some sleet/snow mix does seem possible tomorrow with any lingering precipitation behind the front. Eastern Iowa may see some of this mix by the time the rain dwindles on Wednesday night.

Cold Front

The cold front is making its’ way through the state as I write, currently being marked out very well by a line of showers and occasional thundershower. Also coming along with this front is a very sharp drop in temperatures; the cold front came through the Ames area just after 5 pm. The front combined with the loss of the sun really allowed temperatures to drop quickly and they are still dropping now. Here is a cool graph from one of the Ames schools, courtesy of the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

Ames, IA 1-Minute Temperature Plot

Thus, with this passage of the cold front, tonights’ low temperatures should be in the teens for northwest Iowa. While areas of central Iowa should be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Areas of eastern Iowa may not see the cold front pass tonight, thus their lows could be in the 40s and even mid 50s in the extreme southeast. Highs tomorrow will not bounce up much, only lower 20s in northwest Iowa and near 60 where the cold front once again stalls out in the Dubuque to Cedar Rapids line. As this front passes, the precipitation will as well. Meaning areas of western Iowa and most of central Iowa should be done with the rain, although areas of eastern Iowa should see the rain holding on until Wednesday night. The snowfall forecast has dwindled for the most part with only dustings being likely over most of the state. Rain will be the most likely precip to fall over eastern Iowa, although some sleet/snow mix does seem possible tomorrow with any lingering precipitation behind the front. Eastern Iowa may see some of this mix by the time the rain dwindles on Wednesday night.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Wet & Cold Forecast

A quick forecast for the state of Iowa through the end of the week this week. Starting off with temperature forecasts tomorrow, where lower 50s in the northwest will be in place, but south of the warm front some mid 60s are likely in the southeast portion of the state. Lows tomorrow should be very variable depending on the location of the cold front. Some locations in northwest corner may drop down to near 20 degrees and possibly lower! While areas in the central portion of the state hold in the 30s, the southeast corner of the state with the help of cloudcover and south winds may hold temperatures in the mid 50s for lows! Those temperatures shouldn’t rise too much though no matter where you are, with highs in the lower 20s in the northeast and near 60 in the southeast corner. Temperatures should drop throughout the day and into the night, where the lowest temperatures of the season will be felt in the state. Lows in the west and central portion of the state should be in the teens, while eastern portions of the state should be in the 20s and a couple near 30 marks along the Mississippi. Highs on Thursday begin to rebound, ranging from near 20 to the lower 30s from northwest to southeast. Friday will continue the moderation of temperatures, where mid 30s in the southeast can be found and upper 20s in the northwest.

Precipitation should be found in some form or another, whether its’ rain, snow or sleet and a drizzly fog over the state throughout until Wednesday night. By Wednesday night, precipitation should move off to the east for the most part where the forecasts currently have the rain/snow showers lingering just a bit through the day on Thursday. This is likely just a precaution for the forecast and we should see the precip move out during the morning on Thursday and Thursday night at the latest along the IA/IL border.

As for the type of precipitation, well we should see rain for the most part until early Wednesday morning where snow may begin to fall in the western portion of the state. By Wednesday afternoon, the western half of the state could be seeing a rain/snow mix or snow. Wednesday evening should see the transition in the east, where some freezing rain could be possible as well. Otherwise Wednesday night should see an all snow forecast in the state, although precip could likely be at an end in the west. Any precipitation that can hold in the area during the day on Thursday will likely be falling as snow, as the cold air has taken hold by then.

As for snowfall amounts, by Wednesday evening only areas of western Iowa should see any type of snow at all. Only accumulations coming west of a Mason City to Creston line. Amounts nearing an inch or so could be seen in northwest Iowa by then, otherwise maybe a half inch near the Mason City area. While areas of southwestern Iowa could be looking at only a dusting of snow. Plenty of rain may be seen in the eastern portion of the state though, but this doesn’t seem to be a major concern at the moment as to how much rain will fall.

Last Weekends’ Weather

Well just a quick review of what happened over the weekend weatherwise and what is continuing into the week on this Monday and Monday night. Saturday was a good day, seeing ‘decent’ temperatures and overall not to bad of a day from what I remember. Sunday was a different story, waking up to see a dense layer of fog throughout the state that continued into the night. This fog was helped along with the drizzle and actual thunderstorms that moved into the area by evening. The cold weather and cold ground prompted several counties in northwest Iowa to go under a Freezing Rain Advisory for a while. Even with the rainfall, the warm front was laid out across the state and thus the same weather exists when this morning began and is still occurring now as we head into Monday night.

Dense fog has existed throughout the day, with visibilities being anywhere from less than a 1/4 mile to around a mile or two in other parts of the state. Currently a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the northwestern half of the state, where fog should continue throughout the night and into the morning with visibilities down to near zero in some areas. Other areas south of the front and where the Fog Advisory has not been issued will still have foggy conditions, but will also be looking at thunderstorms! Several strong cells are featured across the state right now just south of the warm front that cuts the state nearly in half from northeast to southwest.

Another update will be posted in a short while, featuring the forecast for the rest of the week for Iowa.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Beautiful Thanksgiving Day!

Forecast for the entire Northern Plains looks like it will be quite the day as far as weather is concerned. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the upper 50s and possibly a 60 degree reading in the south to just the mid 50s across northern Iowa. Beings a lot of people are hitting the road for their Thanksgiving to visit family, I’ll give an update on more of the surrounding states as well. Nebraska should see temperatures from the lower 60s in northern sections to the mid 60s in the south. Kansas and Missouri should both range from the lower 60s to upper 60s throughout their respective states as well. To the east of Iowa, Illinois temperatures should range from the lower 50s near Chicago to near 60 degree marks in much of the rest of the state. Wisconsin should see mid 50s in the south, while northern sections may struggle a bit to reach the 50 mark, but otherwise at the lowest a couple of upper 40s for highs. Minnesota should see lower 40s in the northernmost sections of the state, while upper 40s become likely through areas of Duluth to Fargo. South of their highs for Thanksgiving should remain in the lower to mid 50s in the rest of the state. South Dakota highs should be near 60 in the south and west, while other sections of the state remain in lower to mid 50s. North Dakota should be fairly steady across the state, with mid 40s in the northern half to a couple of 50 degree marks in the southern half.

Only precipitation chances should be limited to the western sections of North Dakota and extreme western areas of South Dakota. This is where some possibility of rain/snow showers has been forecasted, amounts seem to be very light, so drizzle or flurries seems to be the better wording. Otherwise the rest of the northern plains looks to stay dry for the day. That area of precip should continue to move eastward, affecting mainly areas of ND and into MN on Friday, still nothing heavy expected at this point. Temperatures for the weekend look to slowly drop as cold air makes’ its’ way into the plains. By Sunday, highs should range from near 50 in southern Iowa/Nebraska to only the mid 20s in northern ND/MN. Precipitation chances don’t seem to jump up to much with this next system, although I suggest to keep a watchful eye on the forecast for Monday/Tuesday next week as this system could affect some areas of the plains.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Winter Still Coming…

First off I need to mention extreme areas of northwest Iowa as well as adjacent areas to the west are under a Freezing Rain Advisory tomorrow morning. The latest text on that advisory for the nearby area can be found here.

This has been in the forecast for quite a few days, each day in which there should be a better idea of what is going to happen is completely opposite. Models came together a few days ago and had a decent idea, making most forecasters believe that they have caught on and should begin to hone in on the solution. Well since that day they have slowly trended warm, cold and now back to warm this morning. Along with trending the low pressure system further to the south with each of the last 4 or 5 runs. Well, tonights’ models’ are going to keep that trend alive, pushing it even 50 miles further south and going opposite temperature wise again, this time going fairly cool.

The lows track was always stated as being important to what type of precipitation you are going to get, well the low is on a current track to pass through Kansas into northern Missouri by Friday morning. This is slower than previously thought and much further south, given trends and current pressure drops in the south the low should begin to take shape over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles tonight and continue to take shape through the day tomorrow as it finally starts to move into southcentral Kansas. By Thursday is should continue to slowly move across Kansas and enter into Northern Missouri early on Friday as it weakens and dissolves into the normal flow during Friday afternoon. The strength of this low is hard to figure out, as it seemingly fluctuates its’ strength over time. With it being a stacked cold core low, once it enters into the central plains it shouldn’t be able to last much more than 48 hours before falling apart completely.

As for the precipitation around this low, currently large amounts of rain/freezing rain and snow are falling across Texas/Oklahoma and Kansas as well as the intermountain areas. Also looks like some light areas of freezing rain are already possible over areas of NE/SD and potentially into IA/MN early morning tomorrow. Tomorrow should features snow across Texas and Oklahoma panhandles’, as well as extreme western Kansas, Colorado and western Nebraska. Freezing rain looks possible just east of that area, through central Nebraska, western Kansas and into eastern portions of the panhandles. During the night on Wednesday and into Thursday snow should continue to move north, putting areas of central/western Nebraska, northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado and into southern South Dakota. Freezing rain looks possible along a line from 50 miles west of Sioux Falls, SD up to Minneapolis, MN and anywhere 100 miles north/south of that line. Thus, putting northwest Iowa in a shot for a tenth or two of freezing rain by latest forecasts…

If you would like a quick forecast made by me, be sure to leave a comment and I will try and answer it with the latest forecast for you. Thanks… Another update sometime tomorrow with the latest on warnings in the area and updated forecasts.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Thanksgiving Break Forecast!

Well, at least the college students will have all of next week off and I know most people will get the latter half of the week off. So, how about a nice first forecast for the vacation week! Keep in mind with the forecast beings such a long range one that it will likely change somewhat, hopefully this will be a good enough rough idea to what is likely to happen over the next week.

The drive home for the college students shouldn’t be too bad, some sunshine which will allow highs ranging from near 50 in southern Iowa to the lower 40s across northern sections. Friday night should see lows drop from the upper 20s in eastern Iowa to the upper teens in northwestern Iowa. The weekend should hold highs of the lower 40s across the state on Saturday, continuing the lower 40s in the east on Sunday, while the west should see a slight warmup to the mid to maybe upper 40s. Lows during the weekend should range from the upper teens in the northwest to the upper 20s in the southeast during Saturday night. Sunday nights’ lows should be fairly uniform across the state; in the mid to upper 20s throughout.

The first half of the week should see high temperatures slowly rise. Northeastern portions of the state should see upper 40s on Monday, with near 50 in Tuesday and lower 50s by Wednesday. Southwestern portions of the state should start out in the mid 50s, slowly working their way up to near 60 by Wednesday. Other areas of the state should see temperatures within those same ranges. Lows early in the week should be somewhat uniform across the state, ranging from the lower 30s to the mid 30s.

By the time vacation time comes around for everybody, temperatures actually look as if they might fall back down a bit. Although this is a long ways out, temperatures currently look to fall a couple of degrees for Turkey day. I’ll hopefully get an update sometime early in the week next week, hope this does some good for now.

Friday, November 10, 2006

Snowfall Amounts

Updated @ 1:30 PM

Snowfall amounts through the northern portion of Iowa are well above what was expected last night and even this morning. As the system moved through the area, sufficient moisture and some instability in the atmosphere actually allowed for some strong thunderstorms in the state. Some of the thunderstorms were even included in the snowfall across the state, several reports of thundersnow have been seen. Total amounts for snow are significant in some areas, a list of some of the higher amounts in areas listed below.

Worthington, MN: 4 Inches
Jackson, MN: 5 Inches
LuVerne, MN: 1 Inch

Sibley, IA: 1 Inch
Cherokee, IA: 4 Inches
Spirit Lake, IA: 5 Inches
Spencer, IA: 6 Inches
Sioux Rapids, IA: 6 Inches
Storm Lake, IA: 4 Inches
Emmetsburg, IA: 9 Inches
Swea City, IA: 6.6 Inches
Thompson, IA: 10 Inches
Ames, IA: 1 Inch
Des Moines, IA: 1 Inch

Several other reports of snow throughout northeast IA/southeast MN and into Wisconsin. Many of those reports ranged from 4-8 inches of snow, more still falling in some of those locations now. Several winter storm warnings were issued, along with heavy snow warnings, winter weather advisories, snow advisories, etc… Very impressive first winter storm that went across the state today, I do have some pictures from the ISU Dorms of the snow falling and what it currently looks like after the snow has now stopped. Those are linked below:

Snow Falling in Ames
Ames Snowfall

Thursday, November 9, 2006

Nov. 9 Winter Storm (Forecast #1)

This is forecast #1 for the winter storm possible on mainly November 9th across MN/IA/WI. For now, looks like through Midnight, snow flurries to some moderate snow could occur in SD and in southwest MN. Otherwise rain and rain/snow mix in northwest Iowa. As we head overnight, heavier precip should fall throughout SD and into IA/MN. It should remain as mostly rain through IA, with mainly snow in MN and heavier snow possible in SD. By sunrise the snow should make its’ way into northern IA and also start to become heavier in MN/WI. Continuing through the noon hour heavier snow should begin throughout the northern 2/3rds of Iowa as well as southern MN and all of WI, that should continue through most of the afternoon and evening possibly. By tomorrow night we should see the snow taper off in all but WI…

Potential Snow Amounts:

Pierre, SD: 0-1 Inch
Aberdeen, SD: 0-1 Inch
Sioux Falls, SD: 0-1 Inch

Pipestone, MN: 0-1 Inch
Minneapolis: 0-1 Inch
Mankato, MN: 2-4 Inches

Sioux City, IA: 0-1/2 Inch
Ft. Dodge, IA: 1-2 Inches
Waterloo, IA: 1-2 Inches
Dubuque, IA: 0-1/2 Inch

LaCrosse, WI: 4-6 Inches
Wausau, WI: 4-7 Inches

As you can see, heavier snow amounts will likely be found in southeastern MN and into WI. Otherwise, a big mix of precip will be found across Iowa, as you could see quite a variance in the amounts forecasted depending on how quickly it turns over. Difficult forecasting situation, but definitely worth the watch as some areas of the northern plains are likely to see their first significant snowfall. To keep up with the latest discussion please read the forums thread, or the Watches/Advisories thread.

Wednesday, November 8, 2006

McCarney Resignation

Well, the time came, after all of the weeks of talk throughout Cyclone Nation the time came that head coach Dan McCarney announced that he will resign once this years’ games are complete. In case you are unaware of what may have led up to this, a quick review. 2004 & 2005 saw the ISU football team make tremendous efforts to win the big 12 North title. But, both times coming down to the final regular season game in which Iowa State led, they failed to finish it off. With expectations high with tremendous offensive talent, the team struggled this year, barely winning over Toledo in the home opener in 3OT’s; Squeaking by UNLV and by Division II team Northern Iowa… Add on top the toughest schedule in Cyclone history and one of the toughest in the nation this year and the team now sits at 3-7 on the year. No bowl game even in sight for a team that was expected to put up a great fight for the big 12 north title once again this year.

But, those are the negatives of the McCarney era! McCarney was brought into the program over 12 years ago to turn around a team that hadn’t had consecutive winning seasons since, well nobody can really remember! He did turn the program around, put it on the map as it has been said throughout the season looking back on things. Making Iowa State a potential contender for conference titles and a name often heard in the bowl season for the first time in its’ history. A complete losing program, declared to be one of the worst in the nation is now a fairly respected team. This has all been done thanks to his work here, which shouldn’t go unnoticed. A lot of the things that are being said are probably things that you will hear all the time from people, but I still gotta say what I feel. Honestly, I thought that McCarney would be here for one more season, that one last hope with Meyer and Blythe next year for them to do something great. But, that was before this latest weekends lashing from a Kansas team which was probably and simply unacceptable by the programs’ standards. With all of the talk throughout the fans, you knew it was coming… Although even through all of the weeks of talk to the players, staff and even to McCarney and his staff, it was consistently said that it would be the end of the season before something was done. The only thing that is the mystery to me was why it was made at this time, why not wait until the end of the season or was their finally to much pressure on everybody to hold back the obvious thing that was likely to occur. Don’t know and that was never really explained from what I heard at the conference…

All in all… Coach Mac had a great tenure here at Iowa State, I hope he is still shown respect from the Cyclone fans for all that he really has done for the program. It was time to move on and that is what has happened… I hope that the last two games for the Cyclones finish off on a positive note and can get the things rolling for next season as that is what we have to look forward too now as Cyclone fans. I can’t wait to see what the Pollards’ staff can bring in for a head coach and staff next year. I’m sure I missed over quite a few things that I wanted to say, but either way, I got my point/review across. Thanks for reading…

Monday, October 30, 2006

Drastic Drop!

A strong cold front made its’ way across the state late this afternoon, picking up the winds and dropping the temperatures! Here in Ames, we reached a high of 70 degrees; this occurring at 3 PM this afternoon. The cold front began to push through by 4 and was passed the Ames area by 5 pm as winds switched around the the northwest by that time. Also, the temperature quickly dropped from 70 degrees to 52 by 5 pm! It has continued to drop throughout with the aide of the sunset and is currently below 40 degrees here just after 9 PM. Other cities within the state have seen the similar drop in temperatures, Lamoni saw their high of 71 quickly drop within the same period of time and they now sit at a chilly 39 degrees. These types of temperatures will remain in the forecast as highs over the remainder of the week will be in the 40s and lows will be in the 20s to some lower 30s possibly. Either way, a much chillier week then the weekend…

Also, just as a side note here. The Iowa State American Meteorological Society is selling calendars for a fund raiser. These calendars are $10 without shipping otherwise if you would have to have them shipped they would cost you $12. Essentially if you are interested in buying one, get ahold of me in one of the many ways possible and I can get one for you. A preview of the calendar can be found here: ISU AMS 2007 Weather Calendar

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

NW Iowa Snow! … New Site Page!

Last night into today featured a fast moving system that brought quite a bit of rain and even snow to areas of the state. Some areas of northwest Iowa actually received accumulating snowfall, with Orange City coming out with nearly an inch of snowfall. Other areas of northwest Iowa also received light accumulation to a dusting of snowfall that was able to actually stay on the ground for a while. Otherwise, the rest of the state was under a pretty good sheet of rain for most of the morning. This system has moved off quickly and the state is fairly dry now this afternoon, however with another system moving in by Friday night the area won’t have much time to dry. This system should bring rainfall into the picture on Friday night, but during the day on Saturday as temperatures once again begin to drop a mix of rain/snow will be possible. Along with this next system will come the cold temperatures, with lows below 30 degrees and highs only reaching into the lower 40s in the warmest region of the state.

Also, for a little site update, I have a new page that is featured on the website. This is mainly a page for college and career people, as it features 4-year plan for courses, course justifications and several goals pertaining to education and career. I figured I would share it with everybody though, so along with the link under ‘ISU’ on my webpage navigation bar, here is the link: ISU Student Portfolio

Thursday, October 12, 2006

First Arctic Air Blast

Well the Arctic air is into the plains! The first official Arctic air shot of the Fall/Winter has made its’ way into the plains and is taking a fairly strong hold with temperatures remaining in the 40s and below for much of the area. For an Iowa summary, this mornings lows were quite chilly! Ranging from the lower 30s in southeast Iowa to the mid 20s in northwest Iowa! The warmest low temperature this morning was in Washington and Fairfield, where it was a ‘warm’ 34 degrees. Lowest temperature in Iowa was in Le Mars, where this morning it dropped down to 22 degrees, although Estherville was not far behind with a low of 23 and there were several cities in the northern half of the state that reached 24 degrees for the low. Highs today weren’t terrible so to say, but with a howling northwest wind, they definitely didn’t feel too warm. Low 50s in the southwest part of the state were the warmest, with much of the corner reaching 52 degrees. While the northeast part of the state stayed quite cool, with the help of clouds much of the day and the wind bringing in even colder air, Decorah was the winner today with a high of 35 degrees!

Besides talk of just the cold air that moved in with the latest system, snow came in with it! Here in Ames both yesterday and today featured several ’spirts’ of flurries, none of it accumulating. Other areas of the state weren’t as lucky, if you don’t like the snowfall, as they actually did have some accumulation of it. Most likely, just a dusting of snow, but it was enough for the CO-OP observers around the state to report it as snowfall! Areas that recieved snow yesterday/last night included: Lake Park, Swea City, Titonka, Britt, Lake Mills, Osage, Tripoli, Waucoma and Maquoketa. Other areas in Iowa saw flurries and maybe localized accumulation as well, those are the only Co-op observers in the state that reported accumulation.

As mentioned before, the other factor today was the wind. Gusts today were fairly consistant across the state with them ranging from 25-40 mph across the state. It was slightly calmer in the southeast, while the northwest was by far the windiest today with several stations reporting gusts in the upper 30s.

Tonight should see lows in the low 20s to around 30 across the state, with temperatures tomorrow warming up a bit with the sun. Ranging from the mid 40s in the north, to some lower 50s across the south side of the state. Both lows and highs should gradually increase through the weekend and into early next week before the next system moves in on Sunday night/Monday with a chance of rain.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

October 11 Noon Snow Update

Been watching METAR’s for the past hours and watching to see where the snow has been falling, a quick write up on how the snow has progressed with areas of ND/MN/SD/NE and WI seeing snowfall so far in the past 6 hours. Expect this snow to continue and possibly increase in some areas over the rest of the day and especially into tonight where temperatures will drop very quickly.

This morning at 7 am we had snowfall in O’Neill to Valentine, NE, along with snowfall reported south of Fargo, ND along the SD/ND/MN intersection. Also had snowfall reported north of the Twin Cities along the MN/WI border along with some sleet/mix precip.

By 10 am we are looking at snowfall in NE still, along a band across central NE. Also scattered snowfall reported in eastern SD that has worked its’ way into southwest MN, other areas of northern MN and around the Twin Cities also reported snow at that time. Much of northwest WI also in snowfall, otherwise rain falling throughout WI/IL at the time.

Just before Noon, snowfall still being reported in that small band across NE, BBW I believe is the station reporting it at this time. Much of MN that is seeing precip. is in the form of snowfall, across northern, southwest and near the Twin Cities, southeast MN however is still in the rainfall. Most of western WI has now turned to snow as well, otherwise some heavy rain actually being reported through the rest of the state and southward into Illinois.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Cold Weather!

It has been quite a while since I got a chance to update and I felt especially with the first arctic air making its’ way down into the plains I definitely needed an update. Temperatures here in Ames are expected to drop to near the 40 mark tonight and then barely make it back up to the mid 40s before beginning to drop the rest of the afternoon. What makes it even better is the expected precipitation in the forecast, a very cold rain that could turn into snow flurries by late afternoon/evening and especially by tomorrow night when temperatures continue to drop down into the upper 20s! This cold weather should stick with us on Thursday, with highs only around 40 degrees and lows on Thursday night being in the mid 20s! That is right, a killing frost is on its’ way already in the first half of October. We should start to rebound for the weekend, as highs rise through the 50s and around 60 by Sunday, although lows will remain around the freezing mark on Friday, gradually working up to near 40 on Sunday night.

Although no accumulating snow is expected in Iowa, up north there is a good shot at some. Areas of ND and northwestern MN should start to seeing some accumulation of snow by late tonight actually! Although only a dusting expected tonight in those areas, other areas of northern Minnesota are currently forecasted to get 1-2 inches overnight, especially in the Duluth to International Falls area. This snow is expected to continue during the afternoon tomorrow, makings its’ way into western Wisconsin and into the UP of Michigan by tomorrow night. Some areas on the other side of the lake in the UP may see several inches, anywhere from 3-6 inches even! Other areas of northern Minnesota may see that 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. Also something to watch for will be how far south the snow can make it, a dusting is currently forecasted in some areas of SD as well as southern MN, so it is not to far off from areas of Iowa. That will do it for the update, hopefully another one once this event is underway with some total snow amounts and if Ames got to see any type of snow.

Friday, September 29, 2006

Surprise Severe Weather

Alright, I can call it severe weather beings there were warnings issued on it at least. A ‘decent’ storm came into the area within the last half hour, bringing fairly gusty winds and some decent rainfall. This storm came from the northeast, first forming near the IA/MN border to the north of Spencer, IA. It moved off to the southeast, first going severe when it reached the Fort Dodge area. Local storm report indicated that a large tree had been blown over the road near highway 169 to the west. This prompted the warnings as DMX indicated that the storm might be capable of severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Actual wind measurements indicate Fort Dodge airport with a 38 mph gust, Nevada with a 37 mph gust and Ames Airport with a 35 mph wind gust. This storm was quite quick moving, therefore even with decent rainfall rates, only a couple hundreths to near a tenth of an inch is expected with the storm. This storm has since weakend and all of the warnings have been cancelled for it.

In the end, a nice storm to see with lightning and decent thunder. Keeps the hopes up for a fall chase!!

Thursday, September 28, 2006

Slight Feel of Summer!

Although the last couple of days have been filled with some clouds, a few sprinkles and some chilly winds. That looks like it could come to an end by this weekend and be replaced with a feel of nearly summer like conditions over the state. Today saw temperatures only rise into the lower 60s at best across the state, with many areas only in the upper 50s. This combined with a wind of 10-15 mph didn’t help conditions, thus the fall feel definitely in place. Lows tonight will take the fall like appeal as well, with them hovering around 40 degrees. Tomorrow’s highs won’t quite be there yet in the east, with them remaining around 60 degrees. However in the west the warmup has begun, with highs tomorrow nearing the 70 degree mark.

The return of warmth will begin by Saturday, first off Friday night lows will range in the 40s to near 50 in many areas. Highs by Saturday for the two football games should be near 65 in Iowa City, to upper 60s in Ames for the ISU/UNI game. Saturday night lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s, ranging from east to west respectively. Sunday it finally feels like a ‘weak’ summer day, with sunshine abundant and highs ranging from lower 80s in the southwest to lower 70s in the northeast. To begin the workweek on Monday, may possibly be the end of this feel, but temperature will range from the mid 80s to upper 70s in Iowa. By Monday night a system begins to work in and will make its’ way across Iowa through the day on Tuesday as well. This will keep the temperatures down as well as providing a shot at some showers and thunderstorms over the state. Once this system moves through, mid-week temperatures currently look to be in the lower 70s and upper 60s, with lows in the upper 40s to around 50. Long range forecasts do hint at a potential warmup by the second week of October with an upper level pattern change. Enjoy the weekend, as it looks to be a great one across the state!

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

The beginning of Fall!

Well, Fall officially began and although this weekend was somewhat chilly we have returned to some very nice weather that is currently over the state. However, a system moving tonight and tomorrow will likely put an end to that. This won’t be a very in depth post due to time constraints that I have, but a quick look at the forecast for the rest of the work week.

Tonight through tomorrow will see a system moving into the state and showers, possibly a thunderstorm, will be possible across the state. This will keep temperatures down a good 10 degrees for most areas compared to today. These showers will continue tomorrow night and into Thursday for some arears of eastern Iowa. Otherwise behind this system, temperatures will be very fall like and potentially chilly with highs only in the 50s for highs. Those temperatures will slowly rise on Friday, into the 60s most likely across the state. With another weak system moving across on Friday as well, potentially a shower or two may be in the area as well. Hopefully another update this week for a weekend forecast and a look ahead to next week!

Friday, September 22, 2006

Chase Day (for some)

Well today looks like a potentially dangerous day for areas of MO/AR and IL, with the threat of tornadoes and damaging winds. Strong low pressure system will pull a warm front northward over MO/IL, combined with strong shear values given jet streaks and the potential for severe weather is quite high. Clearing should occur in this area as a dry slot moves in around the low pressure system that should be moving across areas of IA/MN today.

Plans were made for a potential chase, but right now this doesn’t look like it is going to happen. Given that we could make it to a target area by 4 pm easily into MO and be setup for a chase. That is just not plausible for others given the terrain, so it looks like a no go. I will update if anything changes, but for now I’ll leave you with a target area of Huntsville, MO.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Rain Today, Chase Tomorrow?

Well today as promised has been quite wet for most of the western and central portions of the state. Rain has been off and on throughout the day in Ames, most of the time being only light. But, over other portions of the state the rain has fell consistantly and heavy at times. Highest amounts so far today seem to come out of northwest Iowa actually, with 1.55″ in Orange City, IA. Other near 1″ totals in Le Mars, Cherokee, Denison, etc… Much of that rain seems to be falling now by looks of the radar, other bands of rain are making their way across central Iowa. This can be expected to continue this evening and into tonight across the state.

Forecasts have the rain moving out of southwest portions of the state by sunrise and moving out of much of Iowa by Noon. This is expected as a dry slot may move into the area allowing for plentiful sunshine and warm tempertures into the 70s. With this along with such a strong low that is forecasted to move over the area, severe weather does seem plausible. Currently, the SPC has issued a MODERATE risk for areas of southeast Iowa, while nearly the rest of the state remains in a slight risk. This will likely change in the new day 1 outlooks issued early tomorrow and throughout the day, but nonetheless it is going to have to be monitored closely for the chase potential that it has. I’ll likely issue a new update early tomorrow sometime on the possibilities of severe weather.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Chilly Forecast!

Well before I get into the chilly forecast, this weekend did hold some severe weather over the plains states. Including tornado reports in SD/NE and MN, I did not chase this weekend however so I do not have any reports to inform you of.

Now, as for this chilly forecast. Sunday didn’t seem to chilly as long as you were out of the chilly north wind that was in place across much of the state. Highs ranged from near 80 in the southeast to only the upper 60s in the northwest portion of the state. Today, the temperatures are ranging from only 70 degrees in the southeast to only the mid 50’s in the northwest! This all comes with a chilly wind from the west as well, averaging 15-20 kts across the state. This temperature range should become smaller as cold air moves over the entire state until after midweek. Lows tonight should be in the upper 30s to mid 40s from northwest to southeast respectively. Highs tomorrow should be fairly uniform, anywhere from the mid 50s to around 60 over the state. Lows Tuesday night could be nearing record lows in the northern portions of the state, where frost looks like a good possibility. Lows in those areas should be in the lower 30s, while the rest of the state still will feature mid or upper 30s, frost is not as likely in those areas. The warmup should begin on Wednesday, as temperatures finally near the 70 mark in the southwest while only lower 60s remain in the northeast. Lows will also not be nearly as low, with near 40 marks in the northeast and lower 50s in the southwest portion of the state.

For the rest of the week, highs in the 60s across much of the state and lows in the 40s and a few lower 50 marks as well. But, the next storm system also looks to make its’ way across the state on Thursday/Friday and possibly may linger into the weekend. This system looks to bring the risk of not only showers, but thunderstorms are also possible given some of the parameters. Severe weather looks unlikely at the moment, mainly due to the lack on instability with temperatures not even at the 70 degree mark. More updates by mid week on this event…

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Saturday Severe Weather

Well as mentioned in previous posts, this weekend holds the potential for a decent severe weather episode across the plain states. SPC has issued their day 3 outlook for Saturday, it was actually issued early this morning. Nonetheless, they have put in a 30% probability for much of western Iowa as well as portions of surrounding states, including SD/MN/NE/KS/MO. This potential will likely increase as the event nears and models have time to come to a complete solution. The threats with this system are likely to be large hail and especially damaging wind given a strong cold front/dryline that will be surging to the east during the night on Saturday. But, there will be potential for isolated tornadoes with storms that fire away from the front or ones that move away from the front during the afternoon/evening hours. Storms will be likely to move ahead of the front, given that storm motions are forecasted to be 35-45 kts! This will be due to such strong mid and upper level winds, this also is what is responsible for the good shear values as well. Although directionally not strong, speed wise they should be quite good, with some models hinting at values well above 50 kts worth of deep layer shear.

So, a strong system with a potent cold front/dryline combination should allow for plenty of lift. With a strong low pressure system forecasted, this should help with directional shear values in localized locations. Decent heating will be in place, but moisture is currently a minor concern with the amount of return not known. Indications do show that at least low to mid 60 degree dewpoints should be obtainable, thus only a minor concern for this at the moment. Model consistancy has been fairly good as of late, at least with the GFS and other ensemble models. The outlier at the moment is of course the NAM/WRF which has been very fast with the cold front, but in tonights run it has considerably slowed the forward progress of it. Although it is still fast, likely by tomorrow morning and by the 00z on Saturday (Friday Night’s run) it will likely be back in line with decent agreement with other models. It seems to be the trend of the NAM/WRF in situations like this. For now still just watching, not sure on the chase possibilities right now, especially with exact threats still unknown. I’ll already be in place in northwest Iowa, so likely will simply play whatever comes my way unless we are looking at a big outbreak, which to me seems unlikely at the moment. That is all I have for now, hopefully I will get another update in either late tomorrow night or early Saturday on what the final plan will be.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Rest of Week to be Nice!

Despite the rainy, cloudy and fairly chilly weekend and first two days of the week, things look to change for the rest of the week. Today, temperatures ranged from the lower 70s in western Iowa to a downright chilly high of only upper 50s in eastern Iowa where cloudcover was much more abundant. Highest temperature of the day was reported in Clarinda, where it rose up to 77 degrees. Where the lowest high of the day was reported in Monticello, where it only reached up to 57 degrees. The forecast for the rest of the week is much better, and drier, with no rain in the forecast until late Friday in extreme western Iowa…

Tomorrow’s highs should be near 70 in the eastern edge of Iowa to near 80 along the western edge. With tomorrow nights’ lows ranging from the mid 40s in eastern Iowa to the mid 50s in western Iowa. This pattern of highest in the west and lower in the east will remain on Thursday, where highs will range from the mid 70s to possibly the mid 80s. Lows for Thursday night in the same 10 degree range of mid 50s to mid 60s over the state. Fridays’ highs should be in the lower 80s throughout the entire state with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the state from east to west respectively. By Friday night some rainfall may possibly move in dependent on the speed of the next system coming through, this system may be hazardous as severe weather is being forecasted, with the talk of potentially significant outbreak of severe weather as well. The severe threat should be over SD/NE/KS on Saturday with the threat moving over the Mississippi valley by Sunday.. Thus, likely rainfall will come from Saturday through Sunday night across the state, with some lingering showers on Monday in the east… Temperatures over the weekend are forecasted to be in the lower 80s on Saturday, with only mid 70s in the west on Sunday to near 80 in the east.

So, much nicer week in store for the latter half and into the weekend with the potential for thunderstorms including severe thunderstorms by the weekend. Next update will probably come tomorrow or on Thursday with an update on the severe weather potential for the weekend.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

ISU/UNLV Recap - Plenty of Rain

Well the game last night was quite the dandy, where once again the Iowa State crowd was foreced to wait until the final play of the game before knowing who would win. Fortunately, this time it at least happened within regulation, but not without controversy. ISU looked decent through the first half and the beginning of the second, holding up a 16-3 lead going into the 4th quarter. But, once again UNLV like Toledo during the first week came back, this time the score 16-10 into the final minutes. Iowa State’s offense struggled late, which helped UNLV gain control of the ball with time running out. With under 10 seconds left, a pass by UNLV was caught near the 5 and then fumbled, but quickly recovered back by the UNLV receiver. This play was challenged upstairs, once challenged it was then ruled that it was an incomplete pass and left them around the 10 yard line with 7 seconds remaining. So last play of the game, quarterback scrambles to the right half of the field and fires into the corner in which it was caught by a UNLV receiver. But, as it was caught in mid-air the ISU corner shoved him out of bounds along with his momentum making his feet land well out of bounds. At the time and by the view of many, including the UNLV team as well as much of the crowd thought this was quite close. But, ruled out of bounds the game was over, officials quickly left the field as the ISU team rushed onto the field in celebration. UNLV was not happy with this though, thinking that the play should have been reviewed and stayed on field for nearly 20 minutes in protest, demanding the referee’s back onto the field to review the play. As the story goes, the review official upstairs did look over the play, with the receiver landing well out of bounds he made the decision that it did not need to have an ‘officials’ review. Therefore the final stood, 16-10, ISU wins another close one. Time to get geared up for the Iowa Hawkeyes, a game that ISU will have to play better than what they have, but if history has shown, Iowa State usually seems to play only to the opponents potential. Leaving me hope that the team will get its’ act together and give Iowa a tough fight in Kinnick.

As for the weather, just as expected the rain held off for the most part until late last night and early this morning. Only a few sprinkles and occasional ‘mistings’ of rain during the game. The rain continued throughout the day today and has continued into this overnight, leaving Ames with nearly an inch and a half of rainfall with a possible half inch left to come overnight and into tomorrow. By Tuesday the rain should stop, but a chillier day on store Tuesday with temperatures raning from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the state. Wednesday through Friday the weekend looks to remain fairly dry and temperatures mild. Ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s throughout the period, highest temperatures coming on Friday before a slight weekend cool down. Lows during this period look vary from the mid-40s to near 50 on Tuesday night, rising into the lower 50s on Wednesday night, and then finally up to the mid to upper 50s for the remaining weeknights and into the weekend.

Friday, September 8, 2006

Iowa State vs UNLV GameDay Forecast & Game Notes

In what will be a ritual for the rest of the football season, here is my ‘official’ forecast for the Iowa State vs UNLV football game that is set to kick off just after 6 PM tomorrow night! But first, the Game Notes:

Iowa State (1-0) comes off of a tough earned win against Toledo last Thursday. In what many fans know, the defense allowed nearly 400 yards of passing offense as they simply could not stop them from reaching the endzone. But, ISU gained the win by finally opening up the offense, Meyer to Blythe was the key. Two huge pass/catch combinations between them was what got it won. UNLV (1-0) is coming off of a routing of Idaho State, in which the final score was 54-10. The lack of defense from Idaho State allowed UNLV to open up the run game, something that they normally wouldn’t do. Having 4 rushing touchdowns with 3 different rushers, while only having 1 passing touchdown during the game. This could be different in the Iowa State game, where the rushing defense could be decent, but the pass defense is put to the test as UNLVs’ base offense set is a shotgun spread. Current spread: ISU by 13.5

Forecast: Most of the day should remain cloudy, with only slight peaks at the sun at most throughout the day. This will only allow temperatures to rise up to the 70 degree mark, with a kickoff temperature of 68. With those clouds may come the increasing threat of rain, early forecasts during the mid-week period had chances of rain around 50/50, but latest forecasts have this chance down to 40%. A warm front is expected to remain south of Ames for most of the day, near the IA/MO border keeping most of the best chances south. But, another weather system coming in from the west will be the key factor in moving precip into the area. Latest forecast models have indicated that this system is slowing and thus may hold off reaching the area until Saturday night or later… But, stray showers cannot be ruled out with strong cloudcover, but for now heavy rains do not seem likely. As for the wind, ENE during the day at 5-15 mph switching off to mainly east by game time at just slightly slower speeds. So for the summary… Kickoff: 68 with Cloudy skies, occasional showers possible (especially late game), temperatures falling to the lower 60s by game end. Winds E - ENE at 5-12 mph.

Wednesday, September 6, 2006

Stunning September!

A great day today across the state, with highs ranging from the upper 70s in northwest Iowa to the mid-80s in southeast Iowa with 86 degrees coming out of Keokuk! This occurred with clear skies throughout the day and relatively light winds, which allowed full heating throughout the state. You can expect much of the same tomorrow, with temperature slightly increasing tomorrow. But, with the clear skies over the next 48 hours, will also allow low temperatures to drop as much as they can. Likely into the lower to mid 50s across the state tonight, maybe even an upper 40 mark in northwest Iowa, lower to upper 50s for tomorrow night as well seem likely.

The first disturbance that comes into view will do so on Friday, although only western Iowa should see the thunderstorm chance Friday afternoon. The rest of the state should expect thunderstorms to possible move in on Friday night or early Saturday morning. This system should continue to produce thunderstorms over the state on Saturday afternoon/night over much of the state, especially central Iowa. With another weak wave expected on Sunday, expect more of a shower threat with that system, nonetheless cloudy and rainy could be a possibility.

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Gameday Weather!

The college football season is here, the first game in the Nation kicks of in just under 4 hours from now! The Iowa State Cyclones will kick off their season tonight as well, hosting the Toledo Rockets, kicking off just after 7 PM local time here. This is one of the first games to ever be played on a Thursday night for ISU, it will be televised across Iowa on Mediacom channels. Iowa State will need this game to be a win if they want to start off the season on a high note entering into a tough schedule. The Cyclones are ranked in the top 5 for toughest schedule this year, having to play Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Iowa among other Big 12 opponents. Despite this tough schedule, most people are still picking ISU to make it into the bowl game, while others have a little higher hopes. With a big win against a team like Nebraska while they’re in Ames could have them eyeing the Big 12 North title, all of this will be determined later on in the season.

Main focus is tonight, against a tough Toledo team that won their bowl game last year after winning the conference championship. They are known to step up when it comes to big time opponents in the leagues such as Big 12 and Big 10. The Iowa State offense should be ready to go, returning every key playing and an improved (healthy) Stevie Hicks anr RB. Look for Meyer (QB) and Blythe (WR) to put on a show against a defense of Toledo that may be lacking some with losses. But, the Cyclones also have had their losses on the defensive side as well, losing 7 starters in a defense that was one of the top in the Big 12. Tonight will be a test to see what they can withstand, watch for CB DeAndre Jackson to step up and make the plays tonight, especially in the passing game. Jackson was a leader in the Big 12 for interceptions and he is also a top returner on kickoffs/punts. An exciting game I’m sure, with the Cyclone faithful ready to rock after 8 months off of football!!

As for the weather, clear skies and temperatures near 80 should cool off by kickoff, looking for a range of lower 70s to upper 60s for gametime temps. Humidity will not be a problem and the wind will be crossfield at 5-10 mph.

I could be a writer, don’t ya think? Definite potential in my story above… ;)

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Rainy & Chilly… Chase Account

Yesterday featured some very rainy and fairly chilly conditions across the state, if it wasn’t raining you were under some very thick cloudcover which kept temperatures down quite a bit. Highs ranging in the 60s for the most part, with a decent rain coming down it definately seemed like a fall/spring day and not a late summer one. Temperatures have gotten at least mild today, rising into the 70s for the most part although some early morning showers were around. Another risk of thunderstorms come into the forecast this afternoon and then the rest of the week dry until the weekend. Temperatures should be in the 70s to 80s across the state until the weekend, where some cloudcover/shower/thunderstorms may keep them down in localized areas then. Right now the severe potential with the system this weekend looks low, so nothing to speak of there.

Yesterday evening I finally got the complete write-up on the website for last Thursday’s chase account. Only images up so far are some radar images that I have received, otherwise vidcaps are still on their way, most likely not up until this weekend or early next week unfortunately. I’ll try and get my GPS log map up there as well with an overlay of the tornado path to show you exactly what we were looking at, one of the first very detailed chase accounts that I’m doing. It’ll take some time, but eventually it will be up. So keep looking forward to add-ons, etc…

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Thursday Chase Update (Report)

I have got a small, rough report up on the Chase Accounts page that I did this morning. Not to much on there now as I don’t have the video from Josh yet and the NWS hasn’t completed their survey on the storm yet.

I’ll try to get a full report up by mid-week next week with vidcaps and reports from NWS. Hopefully I will add some radar grabs as well with our location posted on them. Otherwise doesn’t look like a too exciting week weather wise, a chance of thunderstorms early in the week, but otherwise a quiet week with mild temperatures and clear skies.

Friday, August 25, 2006


Yep, finally caught one of those elusive things! On the cell in southcentral MN that put down at least 3 tornadoes, although 1 of them was rainwrapped and we didn’t see. The first two were ones that we viewed from 2-3 miles away to the south of Nicollet, MN as it went to the south and then through the town. Witnessed extensive damage to a house on the northeast side of Nicollet as well. Continued east and viewed a lot more damage as we were right behind the rain wrapped tornado at this point. A lot more things went on as we stayed with the storm hoping for a glimpse of what she had hidden. Great storm overall, very low bases, amazing meso to go along with it from the beginning to end. Great tornado, NWS report should be out tomorrow on it for the damage survey and I’m sure you will see pictures of it from other chasers on the storm. I was never able to get a picture as I was driving, but my chase parter Josh Richardson does have some video of it that he will try to get online this weekend sometime. That is all for now as it is time for bed after this long day…

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Chase Is On...?

Barring some amazing thing that absolutely destroy’s the threat today, it looks like a chase is on for today in what is talked up to be one of the better tornado set ups this year. SPC has introduced a 15% probability with hatched area over parts of MN today, mainly along and just north of a warm front. Strong instability is expected along with very good shear values in both upper levels and lower levels, this should allow for supercell development along the front with the potential for very large hail, damaging winds and of course the threat for tornadoes. The cap may come into play, especially south of the front where some extreme instability might be in place. Therefore the best target areas are going to be right along the front, where instability is still sufficient as well as shear, but we will be on the edge of the stronger cap.

With strong shortwave coming through, giving upper level support, should have no problem with storms. Hopefully we can stay discrete for a while though in the evening, allowing ourselves the full tornado potential! :) I’ll give another update after Noon when we are taking off to start the ‘On The Road’ Updates!

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

August 24 Chase??

Well it has been something that I’ve been watching since Tuesday, or actually Monday when the first glimpse of the system came into the medium range models. But, I was thinking that it will be occurring on Thursday and with the threat really unknown in location I figured I would let it go by and continue on just watching it from Ames. Well it has neared closer and closer, with the SPC pushing a potentially significant severe weather event and the location isn’t really that far away. Probably somewhere in southern MN, straight shot from Ames, about an hour and a half north to the MN border. So, with classes being done at Noon for me tomorrow, this is a definate shot at a chase if things look good. There in lies the problem, do things look good? At least good enough to make a ‘longer’ chase into MN and then make it all the way back to Ames for an 8 am class the next day??

As for the answer, I don’t know yet, the SPC has seemingly toned down the wording a bit, stating that the tornado threat isn’t as high as first stated in day 3 and early day 2 outlooks. But, the probabilities were still raised, now including a hatched area for severe weather. Main problems look to be what happens tonight, if we get an MCS or even cloudcover along the warm front tonight or slightly north of the front where accus cloudcover could build south into the target areas. If this occurs, significantly lowering the heating and destabilization then we are looking at a much weaker event and one that probably would not be worth chasing, not at least that far. The local NWS offices out of FSD and MPX both mention that supercells with the potential for tornadoes could be there, but as FSD puts it, if accus is there in the morning the event could be much more marginal. So, watching the models and reading the discussions awaiting for the morning to come… At which point, if we have clear skies and it looks good it will be time to take off, if we are looking at cloudiness or ongoing MCS along the front, then it’s a no-go. Just watch and wait… It’s great not being a patient person!!! ;)

Monday, August 21, 2006

First Day of Classes Done!

Well they were done quite a while ago actually, I was officially done at 11:50 am today when Calculus class is dismissed. I started up the day at 8 am, going to the Physics building for none other than Phsyics. Rushing along to get to class every hour on the hour, but accomplishing this with plenty of time to spare. Tomorrow is a much easier schedule, starting up at 10 am and ending at Noon, with another class at 1 pm to finish off the day. Either way, a quick look at the classes and teachers that I have and it’s still hard to say how this semester looks.

Physics, could be a little better then before, with quite a bit of little work being rid of this should allow for a little more relaxed feeling. Grading scale looks good and hopefully a solid grade to come out of this class. Next up is my Theatre class, this class looks to be interesting, but should pass with ease. One of those classes where you go to it, pay attention decently to take notes, skim through the text and the tests shouldn’t be a problem at all. Just to help out with the score will be 3 or 4 short reviews of performances, etc. that we will have to attend, but these should be no problem and an extra credit one as an add on should allow an A or B guarentee! Meteorology 227, computation meteorology, learning FORTRAN… This could be interesting, but not a lot is known on how this class will go, hopes are that I can grasp onto things quickly and this shouldn’t be a terrible class to get through. Finally the Calculus class, teacher is interesting to say the least, not even handing out a syllabus or giving any information on the class this first day. Looking back, it’s hard to say what his previous classes were like as there wasn’t too much information given. Guess this class will have to learn on the fly with… Hopefully, another passing grade and onto the last semester of math for the spring!

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Nice Day, Continued Week… College!

Finally another wonderful day occurred, with clear to partly cloud skies over the state and temperatures rising to near 80 for much of the state as well. Much better then the past days where we were looking at very cloudy/foggy days and temperatures not getting anywhere past the mid 70s. These nice days look to continue, with highs through the week remaining in the 80s! Lows should range from the 50s tonight and tomorrow (north) slowly rising into the 60s as the moisture increases as well. SPC still has much of the northern Plains in a risk for severe weather later in the week, Wed-Fri to be exact. Hard to pinpoint an exact date and how good the threat will be this far out, but the chance is there, especially on Friday according to the DMX office with already 40 percent chances in the forecast on Friday night. This will be watched as it nears closer for the possibility of severe weather.

Other news will be the start up of college life once again. Although this is usually a good thing and good times are always to be had, it brings in two things that aren’t so great. Classes are the first one, with another fairly tough year on tap with Calculus and Physics among others. Hopefully with the schedule that I have and with some good luck and help from friends/classmates the semester will turn out ok and all classes will be passed. The other bad thing that happens with this, is by far the worst one and saddest, is the fact that I will now be living nearly 3 hours away from my girlfriend of near 2 years. After seeing each other for practically every day for the past 3 months, not seeing her for weeks on end will definately be a tough one. She’ll be missed and I can’t wait to see her again…

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Moved In & More Thunderstorms!

Thursday & most of Friday was spent down in Ames putting away and putting together things for my room for the beginning of the school year once again. Luckily no major problems and everything went fairly smooth, the room is pretty much all furnished and organized, just putting up posters and getting clothes put away are the only jobs remaining. I’m back this weekend for a wedding, but will be going back down tomorrow sometime to finish up the room and then to have school begin once again! For those of you who don’t know and haven’t read the ‘ISU’ page on my website, this will be my second year down at Iowa State, majoring in Meteorology.

As for the weather, the past couple of days have been quite dreary. With fog/mist remaining over the area much of the day keeping temperature in the 70s and also having lows into the 50s made for a near chilly couple of days. This should change already starting today, as temperature rebound back up to the upper 70s in some areas with clearing as well. Throughout the week temperature should rise back into the lower to mid 80s throughout the state, until the return of thunderstorm chances already on Tuesday with one system. Then another system on Thursday as well looks to bring thunderstorm chances in, although Tuesday through Friday could have parts of the state experiencing rain at some moments. These thunderstorms do look like they may have a severe threat with them, as they will be brought on by what the SPC is wording ’strong shortwaves’ moving across the area, could produce several episodes of severe weather. So something to watch for during the next week, otherwise a very nice August week in store.