The storm system that has been skirting areas of Iowa yesterday and today is making quite an impact in the central US. Yesterday, the system produced several severe thunderstorms across TX/MO and prompted a tornado watch over areas of Texas that are now being hit by winter weather that is being caused from this same storm. No severe weather to speak of today, at least not yet with this system. Instead, we have winter weather warnings/advisories issued from Texas through portions of OK/AR/MO/KS/IA/IL/IL/WI/MI and the potential for more as this system continues to move east, northeastward. For the latest image on what Warnings/Advisories that have been issued, check out the US Warnings Map from the NWS.
This system is capable of producing quite the winter weather, with such cold air behind it and the ability to bring in moisture from the gulf even behind it is leading to major storm system. Forecasting ice amounts of a tenth of an inch to nearly a half inch of ice are possible in areas of MO/IL and possibly southward as well. Snow amounts in some areas are going to well exceed a foot in central MO and surroundings, with the Kansas City NWS calling for over 16 inches of snow. Even areas of Oklahoma are watching for nearly a foot of snow to fall over today and into tonight. This system could very well be affecting some areas of central plains into tomorrow morning before moving off eastward to affect the northeast. Tomorrow’s update will likely feature plots of the snowfall that occurred today/tonight in those areas providing the NWS has them available.
As for the longer term future of this system, well it could once again be a severe weather producer. As it moves into the northeast, strong southerly winds ahead of it will be bringing up nearly 60 degree dewpoints. Thus providing the area with ample instability for severe weather tomorrow afternoon given daytime heating and moisture return. A line of thunderstorms should already be underway just ahead of the front as it reaches into PA/NY tomorrow afternoon. This line of thunderstorms is likely to intensify as it enters the northeast in the afternoon hours, providing the potential for very damaging winds given the speed of the storms and already high winds that are expected in the area. Strong bow echoes from this linear system may also give way for the potential for supercells as well, capable of a tornado or two given the strong low level shear via the low pressure system. This is something that is not certain as this time, but is being monitored by the Storm Prediction Center as a possibility. Areas of the northeast should definitely be on thel ookout as this system heads there way tomorrow…
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