August 24 Chase??

Well it has been something that I’ve been watching since Tuesday, or actually Monday when the first glimpse of the system came into the medium range models. But, I was thinking that it will be occurring on Thursday and with the threat really unknown in location I figured I would let it go by and continue on just watching it from Ames. Well it has neared closer and closer, with the SPC pushing a potentially significant severe weather event and the location isn’t really that far away. Probably somewhere in southern MN, straight shot from Ames, about an hour and a half north to the MN border. So, with classes being done at Noon for me tomorrow, this is a definate shot at a chase if things look good. There in lies the problem, do things look good? At least good enough to make a ‘longer’ chase into MN and then make it all the way back to Ames for an 8 am class the next day??

As for the answer, I don’t know yet, the SPC has seemingly toned down the wording a bit, stating that the tornado threat isn’t as high as first stated in day 3 and early day 2 outlooks. But, the probabilities were still raised, now including a hatched area for severe weather. Main problems look to be what happens tonight, if we get an MCS or even cloudcover along the warm front tonight or slightly north of the front where accus cloudcover could build south into the target areas. If this occurs, significantly lowering the heating and destabilization then we are looking at a much weaker event and one that probably would not be worth chasing, not at least that far. The local NWS offices out of FSD and MPX both mention that supercells with the potential for tornadoes could be there, but as FSD puts it, if accus is there in the morning the event could be much more marginal. So, watching the models and reading the discussions awaiting for the morning to come… At which point, if we have clear skies and it looks good it will be time to take off, if we are looking at cloudiness or ongoing MCS along the front, then it’s a no-go. Just watch and wait… It’s great not being a patient person!!!