Thursday, August 31, 2006

Gameday Weather!

The college football season is here, the first game in the Nation kicks of in just under 4 hours from now! The Iowa State Cyclones will kick off their season tonight as well, hosting the Toledo Rockets, kicking off just after 7 PM local time here. This is one of the first games to ever be played on a Thursday night for ISU, it will be televised across Iowa on Mediacom channels. Iowa State will need this game to be a win if they want to start off the season on a high note entering into a tough schedule. The Cyclones are ranked in the top 5 for toughest schedule this year, having to play Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Iowa among other Big 12 opponents. Despite this tough schedule, most people are still picking ISU to make it into the bowl game, while others have a little higher hopes. With a big win against a team like Nebraska while they’re in Ames could have them eyeing the Big 12 North title, all of this will be determined later on in the season.

Main focus is tonight, against a tough Toledo team that won their bowl game last year after winning the conference championship. They are known to step up when it comes to big time opponents in the leagues such as Big 12 and Big 10. The Iowa State offense should be ready to go, returning every key playing and an improved (healthy) Stevie Hicks anr RB. Look for Meyer (QB) and Blythe (WR) to put on a show against a defense of Toledo that may be lacking some with losses. But, the Cyclones also have had their losses on the defensive side as well, losing 7 starters in a defense that was one of the top in the Big 12. Tonight will be a test to see what they can withstand, watch for CB DeAndre Jackson to step up and make the plays tonight, especially in the passing game. Jackson was a leader in the Big 12 for interceptions and he is also a top returner on kickoffs/punts. An exciting game I’m sure, with the Cyclone faithful ready to rock after 8 months off of football!!

As for the weather, clear skies and temperatures near 80 should cool off by kickoff, looking for a range of lower 70s to upper 60s for gametime temps. Humidity will not be a problem and the wind will be crossfield at 5-10 mph.

I could be a writer, don’t ya think? Definite potential in my story above… ;)

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Rainy & Chilly… Chase Account

Yesterday featured some very rainy and fairly chilly conditions across the state, if it wasn’t raining you were under some very thick cloudcover which kept temperatures down quite a bit. Highs ranging in the 60s for the most part, with a decent rain coming down it definately seemed like a fall/spring day and not a late summer one. Temperatures have gotten at least mild today, rising into the 70s for the most part although some early morning showers were around. Another risk of thunderstorms come into the forecast this afternoon and then the rest of the week dry until the weekend. Temperatures should be in the 70s to 80s across the state until the weekend, where some cloudcover/shower/thunderstorms may keep them down in localized areas then. Right now the severe potential with the system this weekend looks low, so nothing to speak of there.

Yesterday evening I finally got the complete write-up on the website for last Thursday’s chase account. Only images up so far are some radar images that I have received, otherwise vidcaps are still on their way, most likely not up until this weekend or early next week unfortunately. I’ll try and get my GPS log map up there as well with an overlay of the tornado path to show you exactly what we were looking at, one of the first very detailed chase accounts that I’m doing. It’ll take some time, but eventually it will be up. So keep looking forward to add-ons, etc…

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Thursday Chase Update (Report)

I have got a small, rough report up on the Chase Accounts page that I did this morning. Not to much on there now as I don’t have the video from Josh yet and the NWS hasn’t completed their survey on the storm yet.

I’ll try to get a full report up by mid-week next week with vidcaps and reports from NWS. Hopefully I will add some radar grabs as well with our location posted on them. Otherwise doesn’t look like a too exciting week weather wise, a chance of thunderstorms early in the week, but otherwise a quiet week with mild temperatures and clear skies.

Friday, August 25, 2006


Yep, finally caught one of those elusive things! On the cell in southcentral MN that put down at least 3 tornadoes, although 1 of them was rainwrapped and we didn’t see. The first two were ones that we viewed from 2-3 miles away to the south of Nicollet, MN as it went to the south and then through the town. Witnessed extensive damage to a house on the northeast side of Nicollet as well. Continued east and viewed a lot more damage as we were right behind the rain wrapped tornado at this point. A lot more things went on as we stayed with the storm hoping for a glimpse of what she had hidden. Great storm overall, very low bases, amazing meso to go along with it from the beginning to end. Great tornado, NWS report should be out tomorrow on it for the damage survey and I’m sure you will see pictures of it from other chasers on the storm. I was never able to get a picture as I was driving, but my chase parter Josh Richardson does have some video of it that he will try to get online this weekend sometime. That is all for now as it is time for bed after this long day…

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Chase Is On...?

Barring some amazing thing that absolutely destroy’s the threat today, it looks like a chase is on for today in what is talked up to be one of the better tornado set ups this year. SPC has introduced a 15% probability with hatched area over parts of MN today, mainly along and just north of a warm front. Strong instability is expected along with very good shear values in both upper levels and lower levels, this should allow for supercell development along the front with the potential for very large hail, damaging winds and of course the threat for tornadoes. The cap may come into play, especially south of the front where some extreme instability might be in place. Therefore the best target areas are going to be right along the front, where instability is still sufficient as well as shear, but we will be on the edge of the stronger cap.

With strong shortwave coming through, giving upper level support, should have no problem with storms. Hopefully we can stay discrete for a while though in the evening, allowing ourselves the full tornado potential! :) I’ll give another update after Noon when we are taking off to start the ‘On The Road’ Updates!

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

August 24 Chase??

Well it has been something that I’ve been watching since Tuesday, or actually Monday when the first glimpse of the system came into the medium range models. But, I was thinking that it will be occurring on Thursday and with the threat really unknown in location I figured I would let it go by and continue on just watching it from Ames. Well it has neared closer and closer, with the SPC pushing a potentially significant severe weather event and the location isn’t really that far away. Probably somewhere in southern MN, straight shot from Ames, about an hour and a half north to the MN border. So, with classes being done at Noon for me tomorrow, this is a definate shot at a chase if things look good. There in lies the problem, do things look good? At least good enough to make a ‘longer’ chase into MN and then make it all the way back to Ames for an 8 am class the next day??

As for the answer, I don’t know yet, the SPC has seemingly toned down the wording a bit, stating that the tornado threat isn’t as high as first stated in day 3 and early day 2 outlooks. But, the probabilities were still raised, now including a hatched area for severe weather. Main problems look to be what happens tonight, if we get an MCS or even cloudcover along the warm front tonight or slightly north of the front where accus cloudcover could build south into the target areas. If this occurs, significantly lowering the heating and destabilization then we are looking at a much weaker event and one that probably would not be worth chasing, not at least that far. The local NWS offices out of FSD and MPX both mention that supercells with the potential for tornadoes could be there, but as FSD puts it, if accus is there in the morning the event could be much more marginal. So, watching the models and reading the discussions awaiting for the morning to come… At which point, if we have clear skies and it looks good it will be time to take off, if we are looking at cloudiness or ongoing MCS along the front, then it’s a no-go. Just watch and wait… It’s great not being a patient person!!! ;)

Monday, August 21, 2006

First Day of Classes Done!

Well they were done quite a while ago actually, I was officially done at 11:50 am today when Calculus class is dismissed. I started up the day at 8 am, going to the Physics building for none other than Phsyics. Rushing along to get to class every hour on the hour, but accomplishing this with plenty of time to spare. Tomorrow is a much easier schedule, starting up at 10 am and ending at Noon, with another class at 1 pm to finish off the day. Either way, a quick look at the classes and teachers that I have and it’s still hard to say how this semester looks.

Physics, could be a little better then before, with quite a bit of little work being rid of this should allow for a little more relaxed feeling. Grading scale looks good and hopefully a solid grade to come out of this class. Next up is my Theatre class, this class looks to be interesting, but should pass with ease. One of those classes where you go to it, pay attention decently to take notes, skim through the text and the tests shouldn’t be a problem at all. Just to help out with the score will be 3 or 4 short reviews of performances, etc. that we will have to attend, but these should be no problem and an extra credit one as an add on should allow an A or B guarentee! Meteorology 227, computation meteorology, learning FORTRAN… This could be interesting, but not a lot is known on how this class will go, hopes are that I can grasp onto things quickly and this shouldn’t be a terrible class to get through. Finally the Calculus class, teacher is interesting to say the least, not even handing out a syllabus or giving any information on the class this first day. Looking back, it’s hard to say what his previous classes were like as there wasn’t too much information given. Guess this class will have to learn on the fly with… Hopefully, another passing grade and onto the last semester of math for the spring!

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Nice Day, Continued Week… College!

Finally another wonderful day occurred, with clear to partly cloud skies over the state and temperatures rising to near 80 for much of the state as well. Much better then the past days where we were looking at very cloudy/foggy days and temperatures not getting anywhere past the mid 70s. These nice days look to continue, with highs through the week remaining in the 80s! Lows should range from the 50s tonight and tomorrow (north) slowly rising into the 60s as the moisture increases as well. SPC still has much of the northern Plains in a risk for severe weather later in the week, Wed-Fri to be exact. Hard to pinpoint an exact date and how good the threat will be this far out, but the chance is there, especially on Friday according to the DMX office with already 40 percent chances in the forecast on Friday night. This will be watched as it nears closer for the possibility of severe weather.

Other news will be the start up of college life once again. Although this is usually a good thing and good times are always to be had, it brings in two things that aren’t so great. Classes are the first one, with another fairly tough year on tap with Calculus and Physics among others. Hopefully with the schedule that I have and with some good luck and help from friends/classmates the semester will turn out ok and all classes will be passed. The other bad thing that happens with this, is by far the worst one and saddest, is the fact that I will now be living nearly 3 hours away from my girlfriend of near 2 years. After seeing each other for practically every day for the past 3 months, not seeing her for weeks on end will definately be a tough one. She’ll be missed and I can’t wait to see her again…

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Moved In & More Thunderstorms!

Thursday & most of Friday was spent down in Ames putting away and putting together things for my room for the beginning of the school year once again. Luckily no major problems and everything went fairly smooth, the room is pretty much all furnished and organized, just putting up posters and getting clothes put away are the only jobs remaining. I’m back this weekend for a wedding, but will be going back down tomorrow sometime to finish up the room and then to have school begin once again! For those of you who don’t know and haven’t read the ‘ISU’ page on my website, this will be my second year down at Iowa State, majoring in Meteorology.

As for the weather, the past couple of days have been quite dreary. With fog/mist remaining over the area much of the day keeping temperature in the 70s and also having lows into the 50s made for a near chilly couple of days. This should change already starting today, as temperature rebound back up to the upper 70s in some areas with clearing as well. Throughout the week temperature should rise back into the lower to mid 80s throughout the state, until the return of thunderstorm chances already on Tuesday with one system. Then another system on Thursday as well looks to bring thunderstorm chances in, although Tuesday through Friday could have parts of the state experiencing rain at some moments. These thunderstorms do look like they may have a severe threat with them, as they will be brought on by what the SPC is wording ’strong shortwaves’ moving across the area, could produce several episodes of severe weather. So something to watch for during the next week, otherwise a very nice August week in store.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Thunderstorms... Moving...

Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast for tonight, with a possible MCS making its’ way into the state from the west. These thunderstorms do not have a threat to be severe, given the lack of significant features within the system. However, some areas will be looking at heavy rain with the system as it continues into the morning hours tomorrow for portions of central Iowa. Once again tomorrow afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected and will continue into the overnight and early Friday. And a repeat once again on Friday as thunderstorms develop and move across the state during the overnight hours. All of this due to a weak system making its’ way across the plains. The severe threat with this system seems weak, but some isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Thursday/Friday over the state.

In other news, I’ll be moving back down to Ames tomorrow for the start of the school year. I have a wedding to attend this weekend back home, so I’ll most likely not be online much until Sunday evening. I have posted my schedule for this fall on my website, the ISU Meteorology page features it.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Cool August… Thunderstorms!

Well the last couple of days throughout the state have been quite nice! In fact near chilly in some areas during the early morning hours, this all happening during the ‘dog days’ of summer in Iowa! I seem to remember back anytime during high school when we began our football camp, usual highs in the mid 90s with dewpoints around 70, thus making it feel like 110 or so. Not this year, its’ averaged out around the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints have usually stayed below the mid 60s. Definately doesn’t feel like August weather out right now and it doesn’t look to change anytime soon with highs across the state ranging from the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s! One thing that isn’t uncommon is some thunderstorms and they look to also return to the forecast by Wednesday night in western Iowa as a possible MCS type situation looks to unfold. The thunderstorms should remain in the forecast throughout the day on Thursday and Friday. Some severe potential seems to exist with the storms, although any specific details are going to be quite hard to pin down at the moment. For now, just enjoying the outside with mild temperatures, especially as the school year begins next week!

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Showers… New Store Products

Well in what was supposed to be our turn in Iowa for severe weather, has so far turned out to be some dreadful cloudcover and showers, although a few embedded thunderstorms have survived so far. Latest outlook from the SPC put it simply, if we don’t get sun, we won’t get storms and so far only small portions of Iowa have seen the sun today. Otherwise the clearings have stayed over areas of KS/NE and those areas could see some fairly good storms today. Main threats will be hail/winds, especially this evening the threat will turn to wind as the storms go linear. After this period of showers today, areas of southeast Iowa could see some more showers/thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening. Otherwise the next threat of rain/thunderstorms will come on Wednesday and could last until the early weekend for some areas of the state. In the meantime, expect temperatures in the low to mid 80s for most of the week with lows in the 50s for the most part.

I’ve been busy adding and designing products to the store on the website: Several new shirts have been added and hopefully more to come, other products will be added as well. If you have an idea/design for a shirt or any other product that you might like, please contact me and I’ll be sure to make the product that you want, specifically for you!!

Thursday, August 10, 2006

ISU/UNLV Recap - Plenty of Rain

Well the game last night was quite the dandy, where once again the Iowa State crowd was foreced to wait until the final play of the game before knowing who would win. Fortunately, this time it at least happened within regulation, but not without controversy. ISU looked decent through the first half and the beginning of the second, holding up a 16-3 lead going into the 4th quarter. But, once again UNLV like Toledo during the first week came back, this time the score 16-10 into the final minutes. Iowa State’s offense struggled late, which helped UNLV gain control of the ball with time running out. With under 10 seconds left, a pass by UNLV was caught near the 5 and then fumbled, but quickly recovered back by the UNLV receiver. This play was challenged upstairs, once challenged it was then ruled that it was an incomplete pass and left them around the 10 yard line with 7 seconds remaining. So last play of the game, quarterback scrambles to the right half of the field and fires into the corner in which it was caught by a UNLV receiver. But, as it was caught in mid-air the ISU corner shoved him out of bounds along with his momentum making his feet land well out of bounds. At the time and by the view of many, including the UNLV team as well as much of the crowd thought this was quite close. But, ruled out of bounds the game was over, officials quickly left the field as the ISU team rushed onto the field in celebration. UNLV was not happy with this though, thinking that the play should have been reviewed and stayed on field for nearly 20 minutes in protest, demanding the referee’s back onto the field to review the play. As the story goes, the review official upstairs did look over the play, with the receiver landing well out of bounds he made the decision that it did not need to have an ‘officials’ review. Therefore the final stood, 16-10, ISU wins another close one. Time to get geared up for the Iowa Hawkeyes, a game that ISU will have to play better than what they have, but if history has shown, Iowa State usually seems to play only to the opponents potential. Leaving me hope that the team will get its’ act together and give Iowa a tough fight in Kinnick.

As for the weather, just as expected the rain held off for the most part until late last night and early this morning. Only a few sprinkles and occasional ‘mistings’ of rain during the game. The rain continued throughout the day today and has continued into this overnight, leaving Ames with nearly an inch and a half of rainfall with a possible half inch left to come overnight and into tomorrow. By Tuesday the rain should stop, but a chillier day on store Tuesday with temperatures raning from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the state. Wednesday through Friday the weekend looks to remain fairly dry and temperatures mild. Ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s throughout the period, highest temperatures coming on Friday before a slight weekend cool down. Lows during this period look vary from the mid-40s to near 50 on Tuesday night, rising into the lower 50s on Wednesday night, and then finally up to the mid to upper 50s for the remaining weeknights and into the weekend.

More Thunderstorms...

Well early this morning brought two MCS’s through the central part of Iowa, creating two severe thunderstorm watches and several warnings as large hail and especially damaging winds went through the state. I of course, while this MCS was going about an hour or two south of me, was soundly sleeping, only heard thunder once all night last night. Looking at the reports from last night, only wind reports were received, mainly in the 60-70 mph range. Heavy rainfall was also an issue and with continued chances of thunderstorm, will remain an issue with flash flooding in some areas of the state.

As for the title, More Thunderstorms… Today, some tomorrow possible and then even more as we get into the weekend and early next week! Tonight it seems possible for another MCS to scrape at least the western edge of the state as it dives out of the Dakotas and into the Missouri River Valley. Tomorrow will most likely bring a few thunderstorms, mainly garden variety into the area, nothing in the way of severe weather expected. By Saturday, a nighttime MCS seems like a possibility again as it comes out of the Dakotas and into MN/IA, again the western portion of the state seems more likely at a risk. Sunday the risk will most likely include much of the state, possibility of afternoon thunderstorms as another cold front comes across the plains with the development of MCS’s into the evening hours. Sioux Falls NWS has already included in 50% thunderstorm chances for northwest Iowa on Sunday, and Thunderstorms Likely by Sunday night as the system moves through. So, maybe another chase day? We’ll have to see, luckily the past two times the opportunity has presented itself, I’ve passed up on the main target area and it has proven to be a good thing. Maybe things will change...

Wednesday, August 9, 2006

Today's A Chase Day???

Well once again a good looking chase day has went sour, as the SPC has slowly lowered the risks for the favored area through the day in their outlooks. Started out with a 5% tornado risk and hopes of higher, then to a widespread 5%, then to a 2% due to only a few being possible in the isolated cells during first formation and now a 2% simply becuase the threat isn’t that high. Sad day to waste all of the great parameters once again, just like the past who knows how many chases. There has been some storms today, but so far fairly far west of what the original target was going to be. Not sure if anybody got on the storms, but if they did I’m sure it’s going to be better then what others saw waiting for something in eastern NE/western IA.

As for the thunderstorms, they should increase in activity tonight once again with an influence from the low level jet, once that kicks in and gives the atmosphere the surface influence that it needs they should fire quick. Given such high instability today, there should be plenty left over early tonight, with shear values still high could definately see some severe weather overnight tonight in areas with MCS development. So the rain definately isn’t out of the question, but the great chase seems to be. Beings this was the case this afternoon, I’ve vowed myself to going after lightning tonight. Meaning that I will drive to get in a good location for the lightning strikes tonight in hopes of catching something great for once…

Tuesday, August 8, 2006

Possible Chase Tomorrow...

Well as I stated before about the risk of severe weather making its’ way into the forecast once again, it has and has done so in quite a big way. Despite a warm front being forecasted south of northwest Iowa, north of the front is going to be the best area for severe weather tomorrow. With instability in the extreme category and shear definately supercellular, looks to be another chase day on the northern plains. Although there are still several things that need to be worked out, such as the overnight convection and what cloud debris it could leave for tomorrow and where exactly that warm front will setup at.

Currently with all of the questions, I’m not going to put too much of a forecast into this. I will likely do more of a forecast late tonight once I get a look at the models from tonight and the new Day 1 Outlook from the SPC. Would like to see them go with a 30/30/5 risk, of hail/wind/tornado respectively, especially if we can get the wind/hail hatched and be on the verge of the MOD risk once again. This time, local offices and other chasers as well as models do not seem to have the cap as too much of a concern, but time will tell on that one. All for now, look for another full chase forecast update in around 4 hours or so…

Iowa State vs UNLV GameDay Forecast & Game Notes

In what will be a ritual for the rest of the football season, here is my ‘official’ forecast for the Iowa State vs UNLV football game that is set to kick off just after 6 PM tomorrow night! But first, the Game Notes:

Iowa State (1-0) comes off of a tough earned win against Toledo last Thursday. In what many fans know, the defense allowed nearly 400 yards of passing offense as they simply could not stop them from reaching the endzone. But, ISU gained the win by finally opening up the offense, Meyer to Blythe was the key. Two huge pass/catch combinations between them was what got it won. UNLV (1-0) is coming off of a routing of Idaho State, in which the final score was 54-10. The lack of defense from Idaho State allowed UNLV to open up the run game, something that they normally wouldn’t do. Having 4 rushing touchdowns with 3 different rushers, while only having 1 passing touchdown during the game. This could be different in the Iowa State game, where the rushing defense could be decent, but the pass defense is put to the test as UNLVs’ base offense set is a shotgun spread. Current spread: ISU by 13.5

Forecast: Most of the day should remain cloudy, with only slight peaks at the sun at most throughout the day. This will only allow temperatures to rise up to the 70 degree mark, with a kickoff temperature of 68. With those clouds may come the increasing threat of rain, early forecasts during the mid-week period had chances of rain around 50/50, but latest forecasts have this chance down to 40%. A warm front is expected to remain south of Ames for most of the day, near the IA/MO border keeping most of the best chances south. But, another weather system coming in from the west will be the key factor in moving precip into the area. Latest forecast models have indicated that this system is slowing and thus may hold off reaching the area until Saturday night or later… But, stray showers cannot be ruled out with strong cloudcover, but for now heavy rains do not seem likely. As for the wind, ENE during the day at 5-15 mph switching off to mainly east by game time at just slightly slower speeds. So for the summary… Kickoff: 68 with Cloudy skies, occasional showers possible (especially late game), temperatures falling to the lower 60s by game end. Winds E - ENE at 5-12 mph.

Monday, August 7, 2006

Warmup & Thunderstorms… New Website Look

Well after one strong cold front has made its’ way through the area, we are looking at warming temperatures once again as we go into the week. Currently NWS forecasts are running on the low side by the looks of things, having highs only reaching the mid 80s on Wed/Fri for the highest of the week. Unlike the local met’s as well as the latest long range GFS MOS data. Both of those indicating that temperatures by mid-week should be near 90, I’m willing to split the differences going with forecasts in the range of 86-88 degrees this week. With an increased temperature, also comes increased dewpoints with southerly flow coming onto the plains. This should lead to chances of thunderstorms over the area, which definately looks to be the case with chances starting tomorrow and especially on Wed. night/Thursday. Most likely we will be looking at overnight systems coming in, as afternoon thunderstorms aren’t looking likely with such strong capping in shape over the area. So, look for highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s across Iowa this week, with thunderstorm chances Tuesday night, Wed and Thur. Lows in the lower 60s to lower 70s this week as well across the state, with rainfall amounts quite varied dependent on location of thunderstorms, etc.

As for the site update, website is receiving a new update once again. Several pages have been given the ‘new look’ and a whole new title image should be coming within the next week or two to give it a complete look. Hopefully this will be the look that will stay on the site for some time. The photo pages as well as the chase account pages, as well as the store page are not going to be complete for sometime due to the high amount of work that has to be done on those pages. Keep checking back for more updates and be sure to keep checking out the site for the new look and additions!!

Sunday, August 6, 2006

Yesterday’s ‘Chase’ & New Homepage!

Well the Moderate risk was issued for yesterday and parameters were decent as far as falling into place in the right areas, but once again mother nature decided to screw the chasers over yesterday and only give us two tornado warned storms, with only one of them producing an actual tornado. And of course, that storm was located right on the US/Canada border in a very unfriendly environment for as much as I know. Otherwise several other severe thunderstorms were able to develop in areas of SD/NE, but nothing spectacular came of them in LSR’s or in chase reports as most people had drove clear into northern MN to find themselves on a dissapointing long drive back home. As for me, I wasn’t going to play the northern MN threat, instead watching the areas of southwest MN/northwest IA as parameters were in place just like models have ’sort of’ predicted. But, capping was much stronger than they had predicted and without an outflow boundary or the great lifting support that was expected out ahead of the cold front nothing was produced. So, in turn I had never even left my house yesterday afternoon, just watching and waiting, with a couple of short naps for something to happen…

In other, better news, I have started the redesigning of my webpage! The homepage has the whole new look to it now, as stated in previous topics on how the previous sitebuilder with our previous host was able to pretty much ruin the entire pages on the StormCenterUSA site thanks to its’ encoding. I’ve started up a new design with a new sitebuilder that will be able to be used no matter what host StormCenterUSA is under… So, look for a new look to my pages once again as I take on the title of ‘Storm Chasing & Iowa Weather’!

Saturday, August 5, 2006

August 5th Stormchase

Well the forecast is on and so will the chase come tomorrow afternoon, conditions are looking quite favorable for severe weather over much of the northern plains. The latest outlook from the SPC indicates that the best area could be over anywhere in MN, with a very large tornado risk area to go along with significant threats of hail/wind. A ‘MODERATE’ risk was issued on this outlook and should continue throughout the remaining outlooks over the area, although I still believe that even just south of the current ‘MOD’ risk will eventually be included if the parameters come together as forecasted.

With tonights model runs of the NAM & GFS sticking to their previous forecasts of parameters, I very much like an area of southwest MN/northwest IA for tomorrow over the northern MN chase. Not sure what the issues may be and will of course have to watch thing evolve tomorrow, but both of the models are putting very favorable parameters over this area. Looking at a chase area from Granite Falls/Marshall, MN down to the Spencer, IA area for chasing tomorrow. Hopefully another post in the morning on final decisions, etc… For complete up to date and detailed discussions, please register and read the posts at StormCenterUSA Forums!

Friday, August 4, 2006

Storm Chasing (August 1/Tomorrow)

Well I finished up getting the photos from August 1st up, the pano didn’t turn out great once again thanks to my camera being a little crazy and not being completely manual for me. But, you still get the basic idea of it… The other picture is as the shelf was overtaking us (Alyssa and I), it was Alyssa’s first successful chase with me as the other time we went last year we busted. Here are the two pictures:

Next storm chasing chance looks to come tomorrow already, with a good chance at that. Most likely a Moderate risk by the SPC for areas of MN, Dakotas and possibly even IA/NE. Good instability and shear in place should allow for the risk to include supercells with potential of large hail/damaging winds and tornadoes over the area. Still a lot of things up in the air with the risk, but I’m liking an area of southwest MN/northwest IA for chasing tomorrow, possibly will have to drift over into SD depending on timing and initiation. Either way, I’ll put out another update late tonight and/or tomorrow morning about the final plan.

Thursday, August 3, 2006

August 1 Storm Chase - Website Issues…

Well August started off to be a very nice month, with severe weather pounding the area with mainly high winds and heavy rains. Nonetheless a fairly good shelf cloud rolled through the area once again bringing with it some hefty winds with the first round of storms. This was the only part of the chase really, as darkness was quickly closing in as the other rounds of thunderstorms were as well. The second round came through just after 9:30 PM, bringing more high winds and very heavy rain. Also with it was one of the better lightning shows in a long time, I captured a good 2:30 minute video of the lightning and tremendous thunder that you can view here:

Heavy rains with the continuous storms did bring flash flood warnings over much of the area in north central Iowa with rainfall amounts from 4-10 inches!! Reports in a couple of bigger cities had water at least 2 ft high as it was rushing through the streets and one major highway near Algona, IA was shut down as high water rose above it.

Besides those storms, the website issues continue. Essentially the website will have to be redone in order for it to work properly and be updated on a timely basis. So you can expect a new website for my homepage within the next couple of weeks hopefully. Also during this time, do not expect StormCenterUSA’s pages to be updated, althouth all images will update automatically thus any of those will be viewed in timely fashion. Otherwise, that is all for now…

Tuesday, August 1, 2006

August 1 Weather - Website Problems

Well had a decent shot at severe weather according to the SPC outlooks yesterday and even with a few lingering showers/thunderstorms this morning I figured it would clear out and be set for an afternoon round. Well the clouds and showers are still here and its’ past noon so once again a waste of a day… Doesn’t look like anything significant is going to happen, or even a severe storm will occur if things don’t get together sometime this afternoon. Another thing to notice is that the SPC is using Offutt AFB to issue their statements, not sure what the problem is there, but its’ just another thing that is apparently going wrong today! I’ll be waiting either way ready to go if something can happen, but I just don’t see it being to great of a day to head out anywhere. Just go about the daily life and see what happens…

As for the Website, pages on the ‘06 Accounts and the ‘06 Photos seem to be having problems with the links. I’ll be working on those pages, trying to get them back into working order today. Been a hard turnaround for a new host given some of the problems that we’ve had just personally setting things up… Taking up a lot of time and really pestering me when something goes wrong that really shouldn’t…