Chase Is On...?

Barring some amazing thing that absolutely destroy’s the threat today, it looks like a chase is on for today in what is talked up to be one of the better tornado set ups this year. SPC has introduced a 15% probability with hatched area over parts of MN today, mainly along and just north of a warm front. Strong instability is expected along with very good shear values in both upper levels and lower levels, this should allow for supercell development along the front with the potential for very large hail, damaging winds and of course the threat for tornadoes. The cap may come into play, especially south of the front where some extreme instability might be in place. Therefore the best target areas are going to be right along the front, where instability is still sufficient as well as shear, but we will be on the edge of the stronger cap.

With strong shortwave coming through, giving upper level support, should have no problem with storms. Hopefully we can stay discrete for a while though in the evening, allowing ourselves the full tornado potential! I’ll give another update after Noon when we are taking off to start the ‘On The Road’ Updates!