Sunday, November 30, 2008

Snow Continuing...

Snowfall began across the state yesterday evening, and has continued through the nighttime hours and into the morning hours today. The snowfall should continue over much of the state this morning, moving slowly eastward and out of at least the western half of Iowa by this evening. Overnight tonight the snow should continue over eastern Iowa, before tapering off in the early morning hours on Monday. Total accumulations between 2-4 inches are likely in an area that is currently in a Winter Weather Advisory. This advisory encompasses an area roughly defined as areas east of I-35 and south of Highway 20. Just north and west of the advisory should still see an inch or so of snowfall accumulations through today as well, with only the extreme western portions of the state seeing a dusting.

Total snowfall amounts through the 7 AM hour as provided by CoCoRaHS (locations approximate):

Cedar Falls - 3.5"
Pella - 2.5"
Nevada - 2.3"
Grimes - 2.2"
Osceola - 2.2"
Ankeny - 2.2"
Creston - 2.0"
Cedar Rapids - 1.7"
Webster City - 1.5"
Bettendorf - 1.0"
Davenport - 1.0"
Britt - 0.5"
Manning - 0.4"
Ruthven - 0.2"

Saturday, November 29, 2008

A bit of snow...

Some light rain and snow showers are moving across the state this morning and should continue to do so this afternoon. Overnight tonight we should see it turn over to an all snow event with some accumulations possible, especially over eastern Iowa. These scattered showers will taper off on Sunday, but not before another dusting or more can accumulate on the cold surfaces. As mentioned, accumulations are likely over the state mainly tonight, with only a dusting to a half inch of most of the western half of the state. Once along and east of I-35 you can expect an inch to nearly 2 inches of accumulation into Sunday morning. You can check out the latest Weather Story from the Des Moines NWS to see a graphical depiction of the snowfall expectations.

Temperatures this Saturday afternoon should be in the mid 30s to lower 40s, with cloud cover and isolated rain/snow showers possible. Lows tonight in the mid 20s to near 30 from northwest to southeast across the state. Snow showers possible in western Iowa with light accumulation; snow likely across central and eastern Iowa with accumulations of 1-2 inches. Highs on Sunday in the mid 30s across the entire state, with flurries possible across western and central Iowa; snow continuing over the eastern third of the state with up to an inch of additional accumulation. Sunday night lows in the upper teens to lower 20s from north to south, snow flurries ending across the eastern third of the state.

Highs should begin to rebound for Monday/Tuesday before the next system clips the state and brings a small chance of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will also bring down the cooler air once again over the state. Details on the first week of December in the next update!

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Great Thanksgiving Forecast

This week couldn't turn out too much better for those that are getting their holiday break to enjoy some good food, some family/friends, and I suppose some good shopping! The temperatures should be near/above normal for most of the state, and even better is that we look to stay mainly dry into the weekend! Temperatures today should range from the upper 30s to upper 40s from east to west, with lows tonight in the lower to mid 20s across the state.

The clear skies continue on Wednesday with temperatures in the 40s throughout the state of Iowa. Outside of Iowa, the rest of the plains states should also see continuous sun with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, into the 40s across Illinios, southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, and through eastern South Dakota. The warm spot on the plains will be out west, with western South Dakota and Nebraska seeing temperatures in the 50s. Overnight lows on Wednesday in the 20s throughout Iowa and nearly all of the plains states.

Thanksgiving Day leaves high temperatures in the 40s throughout Iowa, with lower 30s to upper 40s from north to south across the entire northern plains. A few clouds may move into some areas of the plains and Iowa, with a few flurries not out of the question mainly over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Thursday night continues a few flurries over MN/WI, with temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s from north to south across the northern plains.

Enjoy the Thanksgiving Day forecast... More details on our next potential snow for Iowa in the late week update!

Monday, November 24, 2008

Book Pre-Release: Natural Scenes

As I mentioned within a previous post, a book featuring images that I've taken over the course of the last several years is being released for sale. I've got a good amount completed, and thus have issued a pre-release sale for the book as you can find on the newly designed and opened ChaserSupply. You can read more information on the sale page at ChaserSupply, but if you enjoy any of the images that have been posted on the blog here you are sure to love the images in this book!

While the book is a little on the pricey side, I have to admit that, it is a solid book that is made to be used on your coffee table for all to enjoy. The hardcover is just that, a hard cover with full color images on the front/back that is sure to get you and your guests attention. If you would really like to purchase the book, send me an email ( with your request and will send you some information on how you can receive a discount by reading my blog!

Once again, my premier release of the book Natural Scenes to be shipped out on December 10, 2008 is now available for pre-orders!

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Downright Cold!!

Earlier this week we saw some temperatures in the lower teens over a large portion of the state. We did manage to bounce back with some warm temperatures early on Wednesday, but have since dropped back down into the chilly conditions. Tonight we are setting ourselves up for an even colder night than we saw earlier this week. Colder and drier air is moving in, allowing the clouds that were present early today to evaporate away. With clearing skies, and the combination of winds decreasing to below 5 mph we set ourselves up for a strong radiative cooling night. Radiative cooling is essentially the conditions for the ground to lose the heat that it has stored up from the daytime sun. Beings much of the northern plains will be under these conditions, expect some very cold temperatures when we get up tomorrow!

Lows temperatures tonight across Iowa will likely range from the single digits to only the lower teens. Northwest Iowa is likely to be the coldest, with values nearing the 5 degree mark! High temperatures for Friday will not rebound significantly, with upper 20s to mid 30s from northeast to southwest. A quick moving system will move a band of snow showers into the state for Friday evening/night. The best chance of accumulating snow exists from Sioux Falls, SD through Fort Dodge and nearing the Iowa City area. Low temperatures will likely be in the upper teens to lower 20s across the state. A few lingering snow flurries are possible in eastern Iowa on Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s from northeast to southwest. Mid 20s to near 30 for lows both Saturday and Sunday night across the state. High temperatures on Sunday in the 40s throughout Iowa...

Thanksgiving vacation is finally upon us! Hopefully will get a little more relaxing time and will be able to give some good updates as well still look towards that first big snowfall and winter storm!

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

A Few Updates...

Been a busy last couple of weeks on my end, which may be why you aren't seeing as in-depth forecasts and as frequent forecasts as usual. Currently working on finishing a thesis project entitled "Synoptic Environments Associated with Significant Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States". Once it is completed I will be sure to post a link here and give some more information about it... My plan is to have it fairly well finished over Thanksgiving break next week, meaning only touch-ups have to made before it is ready to be presented on Dec. 8th. A few other school projects were mixed in last week, and then throw in the GRE (Graduate School Admissions Test) to finish off the week with enough stress for the entire semester!

This week is calmer, with the looking forward to next weeks' long vacation to get work done. Nonetheless, still plenty to be done before I can really relax and get into some great forecasting.

I will likely have another update later this week or very early next week pertaining to a photo book that I will be releasing. So if you've enjoyed some of the photography that I've had on here before, and are looking forward to some new pictures be ready to purchase this book! It will likely be available in both hardcover and softcover, and be a 10x8" book full of high quality color pictures!

As for the weather, the lows on Tuesday morning were definitely in the chilly category ranging from 11 degrees in Spencer and Estherville to the lower 20s in a few southern locations. This mornings' temperatures were much better in the mid 20s to lower 30s, but a cold front currently sweeping across the state hamper the highs for much of the state. Windy and chilly conditions for the latter half of the week mean some wind chills that most will not enjoy. The forecasts are also leaning to a brief system that will likely sweep down through the state on Friday night. With limited moisture and its' quick movement, it isn't likely to be anything special, but with the cold temperatures we'll definitely see some snowfall with minor accumulations being possible for parts of the state.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Cold Night Ahead...

With clearing skies and calming winds over the state tonight due to a high pressure not too far away, we'll see some cold temperatures tonight across the state. Lows are likely to range in the teens across most of the state, with near 20 lows near the Missouri. The coldest temperatures should be in northeast Iowa, where a few may see lows in the lower teens. The clear skies will also let temperatures warm up fairly nice on Tuesday, highs from the mid 30s to upper 40s from northeast to southwest. A few clouds will move in before Tuesday night, keeping lows a little warmer, ranging in the lower 30s to upper 20s from west to east. Wednesday's highs will keep the warming trend continuing, mid 40s in northeast Iowa to the mid 50s in southwest Iowa. Wednesday night lows in the lower 20s to near 30 from north to south as the clear skies continue.

With the nice weather expected for the rest of the week, we aren't looking at any sort of weather through at least Friday. Some weather models have shown the potential for a storm system to come in for the weekend, but others continue our fairly boring weather pattern...

Friday, November 14, 2008

Holding off Winter...

We've made it through another system with little snow accumulations across the state. A few of the past storms have accumulated snow in some areas of Iowa, but these snowfalls thus far have only lasted a day or two. With the next system not in sight for another week, we'll have at least one more without the white stuff on the ground. Temperatures may not be too warm, but nobody should be complaining too much as this point.

Scattered flurries are possible tonight and into tomorrow with the cold air moving in aloft. Otherwise windy conditions and chilly temperatures will provide the football games tomorrow an opportunity for the fans to bundle up. Lows tonight in the mid 20s to mid 30s from northwest to southeast. Mostly cloudy skies tomorrow, highs only in the mid 30s for much of the state with a few places in the west getting slightly higher as clouds begin to break up during the late afternoon hours. Windy conditions will also prevail over the state, with winds of 15-25 mph and higher gusts continuing into the evening hours. With the skies clearing on Saturday evening, and a let up in the winds, temperatures will drop into the lower and mid 20s!

We'll end out the weekend with a upper level trough beginning to move away from the plains. This will allow for a pretty good spread in temperatures from southwest to northeast. Sunday highs in the mid 50s in the extreme western parts of the state, with highs only near 40 in the northeast. Overnight lows on Sunday in the mid to upper 20s from north to south... As we head into the week ahead, look for mainly clear skies and temperatures in the 30s and 40s for highs; 20s and 30s for lows.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Another Round... Rain Only?

The forecast for Tuesday's weather system wasn't completely on target, especially the Tuesday evening into Wednesday prediction of the potential for more snow. Many in the northern third of the state woke up to some snow on the ground Tuesday morning, with some areas receiving up to an inch on the ground. Other parts of the state did see a mix of rain, sleet, and freezing rain overnight that allowed a few roads to get slick enough for hazardous travel. Over the course of the day the temperatures rose and we didn't see too much besides rain across the entire state, and even as nightfall arrived the temperatures were just not cold enough and the system too weak to produce any additional snowfall across the state.

Now looking ahead, as the next system approaches the state we are left with warming temperatures with the potential for even above average readings across most of the state. This should allow this next system to contain rain only for the state during the bulk of its' precipitation. As the system exits and cooler temperatures move in behind, any lingering shower may be able to produce some snow. A quick look at the forecast with this storm system:

Highs on Thursday ranging from the lower 50s to the mid 50s from north to south across the state. Expect showers to move across the northern two-thirds of the state through the daytime hours, with only scattered showers for the southern portion. Overnight on Wednesday, expect the showers to move into mainly eastern Iowa with only lingering sprinkles left for the rest of the state. Lows should range from the mid 30s to lower 40s from west to east. Lingering showers/flurries could be seen on Friday and Friday night, highs from near 40 in the northwest to near 50 in the southeast. Lows overnight dropping into the mid 20s to near 30 from northwest to southeast as well...

An updated weekend forecast may be posted later Friday afternoon...

Monday, November 10, 2008

Mixed Bag...

A decent storm system is spinning over the central plains states, bringing rainfall to much of the plains states. A few severe thunderstorms, even a couple tornado warnings, are ongoing over Texas and previously in Kansas. The event for Iowa is just beginning, as one weakening band of rainfall is moving through southwest Iowa and should continue to move northeast into the early overnight. Additional bands of rain are currently over Kansas and Missouri and will move north overnight along with the low pressure system. This precip that is currently rain will move into a little cooler air at the surface, leading up to the possibility of sleet and freezing rain for a portion of the state. As the cool air continues to build in the atmosphere thanks to both strong updrafts (adiabatic cooling) and a lot of falling precip (evaporative cooling) we could see more snow over the northern third of the state. This additional cool air may also allow areas that currently are only expecting rain or freezing rain to see some quick bursts of snow. Essentially there are a lot of scenarios playing out with this storm system, meaning that you should be prepared for anything come tomorrow!

Temperatures were held a little cooler today than expected, which leads to discussion on the better potential for freezing rain tomorrow morning. A lot of information could be thrown out on how freezing rain is more likely even though temperatures have been below or around freezing throughout the past 48 hours. Warm air aloft, cold surfaces, cooling due to strong lift or precip falling, etc. all could lead to different scenarios. I'll just go into the current forecast for the next 36 hours and we'll see how well it works out over the course of tomorrow:

Tonight's lows will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s from northeast to southwest, the lows will be kept higher over a majority of the state due to the cloud cover that has already made its' way in. As previously mentioned, the rain showers over southwest Iowa will slowly move over parts of western and central Iowa early tonight. Additional rainfall, freezing rain, sleet, and some snow, will move into the western half of the state before sunrise. The rain will continue to expand and increase across the entire state throughout the day on Tuesday. So the question isn't if you'll get the precip, but rather what kind of precip you'll get. Currently it looks like areas north of highway 30 will be in the area of freezing rain and sleet, with some rain by mid-afternoon. Once you go north of highway 20 then you'll be cool enough to see the freezing rain and snow, with accumulations fairly likely. The precip will begin to move out Tuesday night as the overall strength of the system weakens, and by the end of morning on Wednesday we'll see the all clear for precip. Tuesday night temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s from northwest to southeast...

In the end, snow accumulations north of highway 20 should range from a dusting to near 2 inches. Areas to the south may see a dusting at most, with some bursts of snow being possible. Freezing rain accumulations shouldn't be significant, likely under a tenth, but even a few hundredths is enough to create hazardous travel. Rainfall amounts over the southern third should be a few tenths to near a half inch total. Plenty of different scenarios, so we'll see how this plays out... Just be prepared for some slick conditions across the state for tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

More Snow?!?

After Thursday night and Friday's snowfall across the state, we saw more snow flurries and some light freezing rain across the state over the weekend. Temperatures across the state were also representative of winter's arrival as the highs today ranged from the mid 20s to mid 30s across the state. With another storm system arriving for the early half of this week, we'll see the chance for another winter storm mix across the state. A quick forecast update for the first half of the state is below:

Tonight's low will range from the mid teens in northwest Iowa to the lower 20s across the rest of the state. Monday highs will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s from northwest to southeast as clouds begin to stream in from the south. Monday night will see temperatures range from the mid 20s in northeast Iowa to the lower 30s across the southwest half of the state. The warmer temperatures in the southeast will be due to the cloud cover and precipitation that is likely. A mix of rain and snow is possible throughout the nighttime hours, with the rain/snow mix continuing until Tuesday afternoon as it warms enough to make a majority a cold rain. The precip should move across to include nearly all but the extreme northeast part of the state by Tuesday afternoon. A mix of rain/snow continues in the forecast for Tuesday night, temperatures from the mid 20s to mid 30s from northwest to southeast. We'll finally clear out by Wednesday for the western half of the state, with highs increasing to the 40s across the entire state. More details on the precip type and any potential accumulations in later updates...

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Accumulating Snow!!

It's quite late, and with work starting up in less than 8 hours I just don't see the time to make a large update. Essentially to recap this strong weather system so far, we saw the thunderstorms move through the state prompting some severe and tornado warnings in the far western sections on Wednesday night. As this rain cleared, a few additional showers continued this morning and early afternoon. Overall rainfall totals were not terribly impressive, but it was pretty good for it occurring in November. Now as the low pressure begins to slowly move east/northeast tonight and through tomorrow we will see the cold air really rush in. With some moisture lingering, and the strong cold air aloft, snow showers are in the forecast for much of the state.

These snow showers shouldn't cause too many problems for the majority of the state, as ground temperatures are still warm and with moisture also lingering on the surfaces won't allow snow accumulation to come easy. However, northwest Iowa will see this snowfall start early, coming tonight through tomorrow morning, leaving them with the best chance for snowfall accumulations. These accumulations are likely to range from 1-2 inches with isolated 3 inch amounts over northwest Iowa where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. Areas near the advisory should see a dusting to potentially an inch during the morning hours tomorrow. The remainder of the state will see the snow showers overtake them during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Accumulations won't be likely, but areas that can see some of the heavier bands are likely to see the ground at least turn white.

With this being the first good snowfall of the season, coming with some fairly gusty winds as well, expect travel conditions to be hampered some. I'm making a trek from Ames back home to northwest Iowa, so maybe a picture of snow is on the way to the blog for the weekend update!

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Severe Weather Update #2 (Nov. 5)

A severe thunderstorm watch has now been issued for portions of western Iowa, this watch goes until Midnight tonight. A line of individual thunderstorms has developed along the cold front and has rapidly gained severe weather characteristics, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. The threat will likely continue as the storms move north/northeast through the evening hours.

For more information on the Severe Thunderstorm Watch: SPC Watch #925

Current Des Moines NWS Radar: Iowa Chaser Homepage

I will be heading down to the Des Moines NWS, thus this is the last update for the evening.

Severe Weather Update (Nov. 5)

4:56 PM Update - A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for portions of Monona county in western Iowa. A portion of a line of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and severe hail will move into the state over the next 45 minutes. This will likely be the first of a few severe thunderstorm warned cells to make its' way into and through western Iowa this evening/tonight.

4:50 PM - Although the main focus for severe weather is likely to be over Kansas and Oklahoma, moving into Missouri and potentially portions of Arkansas early tonight; we'll likely see the chance for a severe storm or two across western Iowa this evening and tonight as well. Current radar shows a line of storms developing along the cold front that is oriented north/south near the Missouri River. These storms have been fairly slow to develop, but are showing signs of strengthening. As these storms move off to the north/northeast, they will slowly propagate into all of western Iowa within the next hour or two.

As the storms move through the state this evening and into the overnight hours, expect gusty winds and frequent lightning to go along with some very heavy rain at times. Through 10 PM a few storms may be capable of marginally severe hail and gusty winds, although a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out. Beyond 10 PM, additional thunderstorms moving through Missouri will also begin to enter southern Iowa bringing heavy rain and some thunder. The line of storms will make its' way through the state and into eastern Iowa by the early morning hours, and out of the state by early afternoon. Beyond this line of showers/thunderstorms, additional precip behind the low pressure system to our north is possible on Thursday night and Friday, a rain/snow mix is possible for some portions of the state why the majority of the state may see snow showers through much of the time on Friday. Accumulations right now appear to be minimal if any, but this could be the first sign of winter for much of the state.

Updates tonight will not be likely, as I will be completing a part of my internship down at the National Weather Service in Des Moines while the potential for severe weather rolls through the state.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Wednesday Severe Weather

A strong lee cyclone will continue to move eastward tonight and through tomorrow, situating itself near the Nebraska/South Dakota border by mid-afternoon. This low will begin to occlude with the development of a potential secondary low near the KS/NE borders tomorrow afternoon as well. As the low occludes, it will begin to move off to the northeast into central Minnesota by Thursday night. As the low slowly moves off to the east/northeast, a secondary trough may slide through the state and allow more rain, possible snow showers for Thursday night into Friday.

As for the severe weather threat, it appears the timing of the frontal passage will be too late for Iowa to see a significant severe weather threat. However, the western half of the state will still likely be in a slight risk for severe weather as the late evening and early overnight thunderstorms that move into the state will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat will be there tomorrow, but will likely be along and just west of the I-29 corridor including southeast South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, and points southward. These storms that develop/evolve into the state during the evening hours may be capable of a tornado or two by the forecasts at this point, however the main threats for the western half of the state will be for damaging winds and some marginally large hail.

Just to the south of the state, a large squall line may evolve along the I35 corridor in KS/MO and even further southward. This line may move northeast, and according to some weather models this line may move into central Iowa from the south giving mainly a threat at significant rainfall. This potential line, along with other showers and thunderstorms from the west will move over the state throughout the nighttime hours. As the low occludes, we will likely see a dry slot move into the state and allow us to at least be dry for most of the day on Thursday. As mentioned with the additional trough moving in Thursday night, additional chances for a mix of rain/snow will come with it. More updates are possible tomorrow afternoon on the evolution of a potential severe weather threat.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Midweek Thunderstorms & Their Severe Weather Risk

Before getting into the detail of thunderstorms for midweek, a quick recap on what was a sunshine-filled day with record setting high temperatures for the second straight day in November! Highs ranged from the lower 70s in extreme eastern Iowa to the lower 80s across extreme western Iowa. Record highs were officially set in Atlantic (77), Mason City (75), Dubuque (73) and the record was tied in Des Moines (76); not to mention several other records just outside the state of Iowa. Expect temperatures tonight to only fall into the lower and mid 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in northwest Iowa. Tomorrow's highs may be hampered some by scattered clouds, but near record highs in the lower to mid 70s throughout are still expected.

A low pressure forming off the Lee of the Rockies should push into the Dakotas Tuesday afternoon, and continue moving east overnight. This low will be aided by the development of a warm front that will likely drape across portions of northwest Iowa Tuesday night. This warm front may lead to some showers and thunderstorms across the western half of the state, but the chances are still fairly low. Overnight low temperatures should range from the lower 50s to upper 50s from east to west. As this warm front lifts north by the morning hours, expect strong southerly winds to bring in moisture and warmth ahead of a strengthening cold front to the west of the state.

Models are trying to come together on a solution for the surface low pressure, the frontal position, and overall severe weather threat for the plains states. The latest WRF model has came inline with what the GFS and other models have shown with the surface low lingering over southeast South Dakota by 00z (6 PM) Wednesday. A cold front and dryline will be the focus for thunderstorms along and south of the low through eastern SD/NE/KS and OK. With strong wind fields throughout the plains, the shear should be no problem, nothing unusual for either spring or fall systems. Moisture should be in the mid 50s to near 60 along and just ahead of the fronts from SD southward through OK. The combination of both moisture and warmth at the surface, and cold air aloft should allow for moderate instability over NE/KS/OK and points just east. Although the mode of severe weather is somewhat in question still, I do believe that all modes (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes) will be possible from southern South Dakota, through eastern NE/KS/OK, and then extending eastward during the early overnight hours into western IA/MO/AR.

Areas in southeast SD and northeast NE may be looking at some very strong low level shear values with their proximity to the low. Combined with the strong cold air advection aloft, the instability should be sufficient to warrant a low topped supercell event with tornadoes possible. Further south, isolated storms may develop during the late afternoon warranting the risk of hail/wind/tornadoes. Eventually, we may see the development of a large squall line from Iowa southward through Arkansas with the cold front/dryline surging eastward overnight. Continued risk of damaging winds and some large hail are going to be possible with these storms overnight... More updates on the severe weather risk are likely in Tuesday's blog update.

Beyond the potential for thunderstorms and severe weather, high temperatures on Wednesday in the mid 60s to lower 70s from northwest to southeast. Wednesday night lows from near 40 along the Missouri River to the mid 50s in eastern Iowa. Thursday highs in the mid 40s to lower 60s from west to east as the cold air continues to push into the state. By Thursday evening we'll see the transition to snow showers become possible over northwest Iowa. This potential for snow showers will continue to expand over the western half of the state Thursday night as lows range from the upper 20s to upper 30s from west to east. The potential for snow, and even some wintery conditions over the northwest quarter of the state will be discussed beyond the severe weather threat.

Very Warm... & Thunderstorms

High temperatures today were able to reach the 70s throughout most of the state, although some cloud cover kept the eastern portions of the state slightly cooler. And a weak boundary also kept the warm air from reaching too far east. The mid to upper 70s were prominent in the western third of the state, where record highs were being challenged. One confirmed record high came from Estherville, where the high reached 76 degrees, breaking the old record of 75. Other records may end up being tied, they were at least within a few degrees.

The warm air will continue tomorrow, in fact with near record temperatures once again occurring across a majority of the state this time around. We'll start out tonight with lows in the lower to mid 50s, as increasing moisture may also lead to some fog development. Tomorrows highs will be in the mid 70s throughout the entire state, but expect some localized areas to reach the upper 70s. These highs will accompany dewpoint increases well into the 50s as southerly winds begin to push moisture up from the south. Monday night lows will be hampered in the northwest as a weak cold front slides in and stalls out overnight. Mid to upper 40s over northwest Iowa, while lower to mid 50s will cover the rest of the state. Tuesday highs won't be quite as warm, but still well above average in the lower to mid 70s across Iowa. The main reason for the lower temperatures on Tuesday may be due to some increase in clouds, and gusty southerly winds of 10-25 mph. Tuesday night will begin to bring in some precip chances for mainly northwest Iowa, however, these precip chances may be taken out depending on timing issues with the storm system entering the state. Tuesday night lows will range from the lower 50s in the east to the upper 50s in the west under cloud cover.

Beyond Tuesday night the forecast really gets interesting with talk of the first big Fall severe weather event for the state of Iowa. A strong low pressure system will develop off the Rockies and move into the plains with an associated strong Canadian trough. The combination of strong southerly winds, bringing in heat and moisture, and this strong frontal system and associated low will bring in likely chances of thunderstorms. Given the good instability and shear also present, the severe weather threat is also present. The most recent discussion from Des Moines NWS touches on the possibility of all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. This event may likely end up being what is termed a cold core low severe weather setup, where low topped supercells that may have fast movement are able to rotate rapidly and bring in the chances of tornadoes. This risk has been on the rise as weather models are coming into an agreement with a strong low tracking near or through the state of Iowa. More details on the severe weather threat will be discussed in updates on Monday and Tuesday as the event nears.

Beyond this severe weather event, as the low wraps up to the east of the state we will see a strong influx of cold air. With precipitation lingering, many of the NWS offices have decided to include the risk of a mix of rain/snow chances for Thursday night into Friday morning. So the potential for severe weather, followed by snow showers within 24 hours, is definitely there for the state. The risk of snow will also be discussed in midweek updates, most likely after the severe weather risk is detailed.