Thunderstorms & Snow!

A strong spring storm system is going to affect the state tonight and through tomorrow, with the potential for severe weather and heavy snowfalls for the state of Iowa. A low pressure system is likely to move into the extreme southern portion of the state during the early afternoon hours tomorrow. North of this low a large swath of precipitation is expected throughout the day tomorrow, mainly a cool rain for most of the state however in portions of northern Iowa it may be cold enough to see snowfall accumulations once again. Due to the potential for accumulating snowfall, Snow Advisories and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. If you cross the border into southern Minnesota then you can see Heavy Snow Warnings once again issued as snowfall amounts could exceed a half foot! Those in the advisories are expected to see 2-5 inches of snow accumulation, with the potential for some sleet/freezing rain at some times. Expect the snowfall to end by evening, with melting to thankfully begin already by Tuesday.

Areas within a county or two of those advisories may see some snowfall as well in the afternoon, with some sleet/snow mixes making it well into central Iowa by Monday night if any precipitation is lingering. Little or no accumulation is expected in those counties however.

Thunderstorms are possible for the southern two-third of the state tonight and into tomorrow. These thunderstorms should continue for the southern half tomorrow afternoon, with the potential for a few severe storms even in the southeast quarter of the state. Significant amounts of rainfall may be possible across the state, 1-2 inches of accumulations are expected with higher amounts within thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm threat should be confined to areas that are within the vicinity of a strong warm front that is expected to make it at least to the MO/IA border. Large hail will likely be the main threat with these storms in southeast Iowa, however depending on the rainfall that is already occurring and if some sun can occur to create instability we could see another threat. The threat of some tornadoes is possible, however it seems minimal at this time. People in southeastern Iowa and vicinity should stay alert to the weather throughout the morning and afternoon as the potential for severe weather will be there.

Temperatures for tonight through Monday night: Lows tonight ahead of the system in the 30s to 40s where the warm air will begin to fill into the southeast. Highs tomorrow will have quite the range, mid 30s in the northwest, 40s from southwest to northeast across the state, 50s and 60s expected in the southeast where the warm front should pass over bring some nice moisture with it as well. As the system passes through, temperatures expected to fall into the mid 20s to 30s from northwest to southeast. Highs may be below normal for Tuesday, but should rebound for mid-week.

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March 27 Snowfall

Once most people fell asleep Wednesday night, the forecast throughout the state mentioned mainly rain as the next system came into play. Only the northern third of the state was expected to see the white stuff and accumulations were expected to generally be under 3 inches. By the time a majority of people woke up however Thursday morning, the view outside for the northern half of Iowa was a mix of sleet and snow. Cold air dramatically entered the state and overnight the forecast quickly changed from a nearly all rain event to a nearly all snow event.

The morning hours saw the heaviest snow bands flow through central Iowa, where some thundersnow or thundersleet also occurred. Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued for a few counties just south of I80 in the eastern half of the state for quarter sized hail. This heavier line of precipitation which was able to fall as snow allowed for the heaviest accumulations to occur in central Iowa (see map below). Heaviest goes the area near Gowrie, IA where a range of 4-5 inches likely fell meanwhile near Ames we ended up with ~3 inches. It was quite a mixed bag of precipitation, with some very heavy sleet and practically graupel fell throughout the afternoon/evening here at the Severe Storms & Doppler Radar conference. Nothing like having winter weather when you're talking about tornadoes and hail, etc...

March 27 Snowfall Accumulations


Look for a slight warm up into this weekend before our next system is going to take shape for Sunday and into the work week. A mix of precipitation is once more a possibility for at least the northwestern half of the state, meanwhile thunderstorms may be seen in the southeast. More details on this system will likely be made on Sunday upon my return to Ames from the conference that I'm attending.

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Rain & Snow

The storm system that has been in the forecast for quite some time is finally coming into good view from the forecasters perspective and in turn several northern Iowa counties have been put under a Snow Advisory. Expect snow to begin tonight and continue into tomorrow for areas of northern Iowa, leaving the northern third of the state with some of the white stuff. The heaviest snowfall amounts are expected across northwest and north-central Iowa where the advisory is listed. Those under the advisory can expect to see 3-6 inches of accumulation by tomorrow evening. Other areas of northeastern Iowa not under the advisory, such as Charles City and Dubuque may see 1-3 inches of accumulations. Areas south of the advisory by a county or two may also see the 1-3 inches, with even less amounts another county south. Once in the central third of the state, mostly rain is expected through tomorrow evening with only light snow showers mixing in for tomorrow night as the precipitation exits. Don't feel like you are getting the worst of it in Iowa either, as areas in southwest Minnesota and South Dakota have been listed under a Heavy Snow Warning where 6-12 inches may be seen.

As for the temperatures, expect lows tonight near 30 along the northern border to near 40 along the south. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid 40s in the south to the mid 30s where some of the snowfall will be taking place in the northwest. This leads to lows that will be below freezing for the entire state; near freezing in the southeast to the lower 20s in the northern third. The cold won't last long, as clear skies will allow the sun to warm the state up into the 40s throughout on Friday as we head into the weekend.

Note: I will be attending the Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference in Des Moines from Thursday until Saturday. Thus updates on the snowfall in the north may not be available.

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Spring Time Weather?

Strong southerly winds today allowed for some warm air, but a unique situation with westerly and even northwesterly winds tomorrow will allow for even warmer temperatures. Tonights' lows will stay in the 30s throughout the state, with a few clouds moving over the state. Tomorrows' highs will be above normal for a good portion of the state, at least average for the remainder. Upper 40s along the northern border of the state, to near 60 along the southern border. Not long after the warm air moves in, a weak cold front will also pass over the state and drop the temperatures back down. Tuesday night will feature lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s from north to south and rebounding temperatures on Wednesday will only have highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday night will have lows around 30 in the north, to the upper 30s in the southeast. This however will not be the main story of the night, as a low pressure system and affiliated fronts will make its' way into the state. Precipitation is expected throughout the state overnight, with a mix of rain/snow expected in the northern half and rain in the south. The precip should continue for Thursday, as cold air dips into the state over the north they should say mainly snow for the northern third. The southern half of the state may actually get to hear some thunder to go along with the rains during the afternoon. Expect the precip to finally move out overnight on Thursday with a mix of precip for a majority of the state. Total precip amounts from the system could range from a quarter to half inch of liquid, translating to several inches of snow possible for the northern third.

More details on this system should be provided in later updates...

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March 21 Snowstorm

The snow that was expected to cross over at least a quarter of the state will end up only affecting a few counties instead. The path of the storm never reached as far south as expected, leaving most of the snow over the Minnesota and Wisconsin areas. The bands of snow continue to work across portions of southeast Minnesota and into southern Wisconsin this afternoon, areas along the WI/IL border are expected 6-12 inches of snow through tonight.

Currently only two counties over Iowa are still under a Winter Storm Warning, those being Winneshiek and Allamakee where 3-5 inches of snowfall are expected by the time the snow ends later this afternoon. Latest reports indicate that ~4 inches has accumulated near Lansing, IA.

The rest of the state may see some cloudy and drizzling skies over the day as the system skirts the state. The southeast corner of the state however is still under the area of low pressure and has actually seen clear skies today, allowing temperatures to rise into the 50s and 60s. The remainder of the state is in the 30s and 40s with winds becoming breezy from the northwest. Expect the temperatures to stay in the 30s and 40s this weekend, with a slight chance of some rain/snow.

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March 21 Winter Storm

A winter storm is looking to move into the state tonight and last into the day tomorrow. Advisories and warnings have been issued for several counties across the state, where a range from 2-5 inches of snow may fall across north-central Iowa where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for northeast Iowa where a range of 5-9 inches of snow may fall tonight through tomorrow. Other areas of the state may see a mix of rain or snow, with some light accumulations still possible for those that are within a few counties of the advisories/warnings. Some thunder is even possible tonight across the southern two-third where some instability is going to be present.

For the latest advisories and warnings, please check out the links that are available to the right. Below is the latest weather story from Des Moines that highlights which areas may see the most snow, etc...

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First Snow of Spring!

With today the official first day of spring, a quick system will clip portions of the state and give us our first spring snow. The entire state won't be seeing the snow however, the southern two-thirds should see mainly rain. In fact, some instability will be present tonight and may allow for a few rumbles of thunder in the south-central portion of the state. This system should clear out of the state during the day of Friday, only to give way to another weak system for the weekend.

Highs today ranging from the lower 40s to lower 60s across the state, a nice day no matter where you are in the state. Lows tonight from near 30 in the north to the lower 40s in the southern third of the state. Tonight will also see anywhere north of a Sioux City to Des Moines to Burlington line encountering precipitation. A rain/snow mix for some areas, while some areas see just snow or rain. The areas that see accumulating snow are likely to be the ones north of Highway 20 across the state. Significant snow accumulations are likely to continue during the day on Friday over the northern portions of the state, this is especially true for northeast Iowa where Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. As the precipitation continues on Friday, expect highs in the mid 30s in the northeast to near 50 around Council Bluffs. Seeing the temperatures in the 30s while the snow is falling in the northeast is leading the belief that the snow is likely to be the heavy stuff.

Total snow accumulations by Friday night will range from a couple inches over northwest and north-central Iowa, 2-4 inches possible for the Estherville, Mason City and Waterloo areas. Areas in northeast Iowa that are east of Waterloo and north of Cedar Rapids/Iowa City will see the highest snow amounts, potentially ranging from 5-9 inches by Friday night. The southern half of the state will stay rain through the system, those in between are likely to see both rain and snow, however little snow accumulations are expected. Keep updated with the latest warnings/advisories from the NWS and other details by using the links provided to the right.

Friday night lows in the mid 20s to near 30 from north to south giving way to highs on Saturday ranging from the upper 30s in the northeast to the mid 40s in the south. Lows Saturday and Sunday night in the 20s throughout the state; highs on Sunday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A weak system may work through the state on Saturday night and Sunday, nothing significant expected at the moment with this system.

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More Snow!!

As mentioned in early postings, winter isn't quite over yet. This latest system that is going to roll through the plains states is putting down some fairly impressive snow amounts through last night. More snow is expected through the day today and into tonight, with total accumulations approaching a half foot in extreme northwest Iowa. Latest snow amounts show generally a 2-4 inch swath of snowfall that fell last night and early this morning over the northwest quarter of the state.

Currently in a lull as far as snowfall goes, expect some intermittent light snowfall throughout the day and picking up this evening into tonight. Total snowfall totals are going to be widely scattered through the state, as banding of the snow is likely to occur and give fairly small areas of the state some hefty amounts. The snow is a nice wet snow, making it quite heavy to scoop off of the pavement. With temperatures staying near or above freezing, expect the heavy snowfall to continue with the possibility that it mixes with rainfall over some areas.

Still getting quite a bit of stuff done over break here, so not too much of an update. However, hopefully I'll get a recap in of this event and a forecast on how the Easter weekend will be later on.

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Warm Throughout

Today was another warm day, with the entire state above 40 degrees and areas even with snowpack reaching into the mid 40s to ~50. A majority of the state was held in the 50s, with some portions of the state reaching into the lower 60s. Whatever the temperature was where you were at, if you had snow on the ground it was melting. It may not have been fast enough for some, but some melting may still occur over the next several days including during any rain event we can have over the state. Tonights' snow depth update is posted below.




The snow still remains over about a third of the state, where it is still fairly deep in some areas. However, it is much improved over the depth from the beginning of the year and looking at soil temperatures over the state they are in a range of 31-33 degrees indicating we can't be too far off from getting into spring. A quick forecast update for the weekend, lows tonight in the upper 20s to mid 30s with some light precipitation moving through portions of the state. This scattered rain will continue during the day of Friday, especially over the western half of the state. Highs likely to range from the upper 30s to the mid 50s from northwest to southeast. Expect precip to continue in the southern third of the state on Friday night and Saturday, lows in the 20s for the majority of the state. Saturday highs in the mid to upper 30s as skies remain mostly cloudy. Lows on Saturday night in the lower to mid 20s leading to highs on Sunday from near 40 to the mid 40s.

Once we enter into Sunday night and into early next week, the precip chances once again increase with another system moving into the state. Currently it does look like a majority will fall as rain, however some snow may sneak into the forecast for the last few hours of the event. No significant accumulations of snowfall is currently expected.

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Active Weather

We are coming upon spring-time, as temperatures are looking to stay above freezing for a majority of the state for the next week. The areas that will still see below freezing temperatures are likely to be the areas that still have snowfall on the ground. The latest snowfall depth image is posted below once again, there is still some more melting that will likely occur today and potentially tomorrow before our first system makes its' way into the state.




Highs today ranging from the mid 40s to lower 60s from the northeast to the southwest. Lows tonight from the upper 20s in the north to mid 30s in the south. The first system of our active pattern will begin to effect the western portion of the state by Friday afternoon, high temperatures cooler with a range from near 40 to the lower 50s. Precip continues to move through the southern two-thirds of the state on Friday night, likely falling as a mix of rain and snow. Low temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s from north to south. By Saturday expect most precipitation to make its' way out of the state, the southern third may still see a few lingering showers.

Highs over the weekend expected in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Saturday, with upper 30s to mid 40s expected on Sunday. Lows in the 20s on Saturday night, warming to the upper 20s to mid 30s for Sunday night. Sunday night will also see an increase in cloud cover and the next storm system beginning to move into the state. Precip type is a big question right now, current forecasts are going for a rain/snow mix for a majority of the system. However, it does look like rain will be the precip type to begin the storm. This system will continue to spin precip over the state through Monday night. Rain will likely turn over to snow sometime during the event, timing of that is still unknown. Nonetheless temperatures look to rebound early next week to stay out of the deep freeze.

A few updates on the severe weather threat with the system early next week are possible, as chasers are gearing up for a potential chase on Monday.

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Lots of Water

Lots of water from the melting snow that is! Not much in the way of precipitation is i n the forecast until Friday when a quick system moves in and may give the state a mix of precip. A few flood warnings out, but so far we've been able to keep everything within the banks. Hopefully even with more melting tomorrow we can keep it that way. Otherwise just a quick update tonight as this week is quite busy for me...

Highs today ranged from 38 in Dubuque to 69 in Council Bluffs, with a majority of highs across the state ranging from the lower 40s to lower 60s. Tomorrow should be even warmer, with the snow really taking a beating with the sun and general warm weather. Taking a look at the latest snowfall depth you can see where the snow has really started to melt off throughout the southern and western portions of the state. It is getting thinner throughout the rest of the state, I believe after tomorrow evenings update the map will show a majority of the state without any snow depth!




I'll post another image tomorrow night to continue to show how it changes with the significant heating going on. Expect the temperatures to slowly fall back down to near normal conditions over most of the state for Friday and the weekend. We may drop a bit below normal as well on Saturday, but it still looks to be a fairly nice weekend. A quick shot of a rain/snow mix is possible during the day on Friday and into the evening in the eastern portion of the state. No significant accumulations of any kind are currently expected with that storm system.

All eyes are going to be on the Monday time frame however, as a significant system is likely to come over the state. A mixed bag of precipitation seems likely at this time, but the chances of any significant accumulations of any kind are still questionable. More updates on this system as well as how the weekend may look later on, after this week finally settles down and I enter spring break!

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Wonderful Week Ahead

The latest image from the NOHRSC Interactive Snow Information shows that nearly half of the state is now under 2 inches in snow depth. However, some areas of the state, mainly northeast, have over 20 inches of snow still on the ground with much more in piles alongside the roadways, etc. Expect those areas that are under 2 inches to have their snow melted off by Tuesday, which will allow temperatures to soar under the warming sun. Significant melting is likely to occur throughout the state which may yield to several flood warnings mid-week. Luckily, no precipitation is expected through that time period as well which would have only increased the flooding potential. It seems doubtful that areas with more than a foot will get rid of their snow, while areas under a foot should have the potential to lose much of their snowfall.




Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 20s in the northeast to the mid 40s in the west as snowmelt is likely to be significant. Areas just off to the west where the snow is completely gone are expected to reach mid 50s and even 60s. Tuesday highs will increase even more with the snow being lost over much of the state, mid 40s over the northeast even with snowfall and up to the lower 60s in the southwest! Dramatic increases in the highs where snow is not existent, once again expect the snowdepth to decrease significantly. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night in the 20s and then mid 20s to mid 30s. As the next wave of energy enters the northern plains on Wednesday, we'll still have one more day of warm temperatures with highs from the upper 40s to lower 60s. This shortwave will cross over the state on Wednesday night, bringing with it the chance of rain and snow for the state. Currently this system doesn't look to have too much precipitation with it, so only isolated slick spots are expected for Thursday morning.

This system will however bring back down temperatures to near normal and then potentially below normal after another system works through on Friday and Friday night. The system on Friday and Friday night may likely be more significant, mainly for southern Iowa with the potential for mixed precipitation. Lows in the teens to near 30 degrees for the remainder of the week. Highs on Thursday in the 40s, mid 30s to mid 40s for Friday and Saturday...

Looking past this week and onto Iowa State's spring break we look to enter a potentially active weather pattern that may include a very strong system for early next week...

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NWS Des Moines Open House

The National Weather Service in Des Moines is holding a public open house tomorrow (Saturday March 8) from 10 am until 3 pm. This is a copy of what is posted on the Des Moines NWS webpage:

The Des Moines NOAA / National Weather Service office will be presenting a public open house Saturday March 8 from 10 am to 3 pm. Everyone is invited to attend and no reservations are required. Children are welcome. Just arrive ready to learn and ask questions! The open house will include guided tours of our operations and various topics including the following...

* Severe weather and warnings
* Hydrology and data acquisition
* Public and aviation forecasting and dissemination
* Electronics and observation equipment.

Our office is located at 9607 NW Beaver Drive in Johnston, along the east side of the road, or about a quarter mile north of the radar tower. Maps and directions are provided via the links below.

* From Grimes or Highway 141
* From Des Moines or I-80/I-35
* From the north (Polk City or Ankeny)

Guided tours will begin every 10 minutes or so, and last approximately 50 minutes, but feel free to stay longer if you wish. Parking is limited, so car pooling is encouraged. Parking along the shoulder on Beaver Dr. is prohibited, but additional parking is available in the Corps of Engineers Acorn Valley campground just north and west of the office. Drinks and snacks will also be provided. If you have any questions, please call (515) 270-2614. We hope to see you there.

I'll likely be there for several hours tomorrow, spending time with the Iowa Storms group that will have a booth along with several other organizations. Otherwise, stay warm with temperatures nearing record lows by tomorrow morning!

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Small Blast of Snow... Large Blast of Cold!

Another little wave of energy is going to work through the state tonight, bringing with it the chance for some light snow over a majority of the state. This comes after what was a beautiful day outside today with the sun shining and actually being strong enough to melt the snow! A good sign that the snow won't be staying around for too much longer for those who are wishing for it to leave. Even though temperatures didn't get above freezing, the sign is high enough and is getting enough energy on the pavement to melt the snow away. However, it won't get that chance in the coming days as this system is going to bring with it a large blast of cold air that will send temperatures to near record cold for Friday night!

A small shortwave is noted in the mid-levels as of the latest upper air plots, this will be responsible for the light snow showers that are likely to occur tonight. This snowfall should be much like our last small system that passed through the state. Light to moderate snow, mainly light and fluffy allowing for it to easily be blown; although winds are not expected to be a problem. Minimal accumulations are expected, highest amounts in the 1-2 inch range otherwise mainly less. Snow is already noted in the observations from Mason City and Spencer, with other stations to the north in Minnesota also reporting light snow. This should work through the state overnight, with maybe a few isolated flurries in the southeast tomorrow morning. Lows tonight are expected to range from the teens in southeast Iowa to the single digits below zero in the northwest.

Highs tomorrow will show the cold air well, from the 10s and teens up to the mid 20s in extreme southeast Iowa that will set up the stage for a night of near record cold over the state. The trough will be placed over the central and eastern thirds of the state, allowing western Iowa to be the warmest place in the state for Friday night. Nonetheless the warmest you are going to see is the upper single digits, while areas of northeast Iowa will plummet into the single digits below zero. Likely reaching near record lows in the process...

As this trough moves out of the state though, temperatures will begin to rebound nicely over the weekend. Highs on Saturday expecting to range from ~20 in the northeast to the lower 30s in the west. Lows much better with temperatures ranging from 10 to 20 from northeast to southwest. Sunday will be even warmer with lower 30s in the northeast and lower 40s in the west. All of this occurring with just a small shot of some flurries on Saturday and Saturday night over mainly the northern and northeastern portions of the state.

Look for the warm-up to continue into early next week with the 50s well in sight for the state.

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Another Quick Snowfall

A couple of weak waves of energy are going to work through the state tonight and tomorrow as well as Thursday into Thursday night. Both of these waves will filter in colder air as well as give us a chance at snow. Lows tonight will range from the teens to mid 20s with snow falling throughout the northwest quarter of the state. The snow will continue to make its' way over the state during the day tomorrow, highs ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s from northwest to southeast. The snow should end in all but extreme eastern Iowa by nightfall, with only flurries left in the east. Total snowfall amounts should only be in the 1-3 inch range with most areas being under 2 inches.

Wednesday night will show off the cold air that filtered in with that system, as lows are expected to be in the teens and a few single digits. Thursday highs will range from the lower 20s to lower 30s with some potential flurries across the state. Thursday lows will represent the second shot of cold air, dropping lows even further than the night before. The single digits below zero and above zero are expected over all but extreme southern Iowa where the lower to mid teens will exist with cloud cover lingering. Some flurries may continue in the southeast overnight, however snow totals across the entire state should be around or under an inch.

Expect the temperatures to be below average up until the weekend, when we can finally start to warm up to above average temperatures and once again likely melt off the snowfall from the past week. More information on how high temperatures may get over the weekend and into next week will be available in later updates!

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Slowly Warming

After high temperatures yesterday reached into the 60s and 70s for parts of the state, highs today are back below normal ranging from the lower 20s to near 30. Yesterday was a unique day, bringing a strong system overhead that allowed the large temperature spread over the state. This also allowed for substantial rain amounts before the change over to snow occurred during the early nighttime hours. Total snow accumulations ranged from 1 to 5 inches across the state, Coop Snow Plot. This snowfall typically fell within a time span of only a couple of hours as snowfall was quite heavy at times. In fact some areas, including Ames, experienced thundersnow last night with a few lightning bolts and rumbles of thunder.

Road conditions are improving today as the sun beats down on the roadways, the sun is beginning to become strong enough to melt the snow on its' own as it gets higher in the sky. Expect the sun to slowly help to melt the snow throughout the week, with little in the way of additional precip expected. Around Wednesday and then once again Thursday night there are two systems that may brush the state, currently if any snowfall does occur it should be light. As for those temperatures, expect highs to increase into the 30s tomorrow; ranging from mid 20s to mid 30s on Wed/Thur. Fridays' highs will be a bit cooler, lower 20s where snow cover may still exist in the northwest while lower 30s are likely in the southwest. This weekend however will really see the warm-up begin, Saturday highs in the upper 20s to lower 40s; Sundays' in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

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More Winter

Although the last several days and today will feel like we are gaining on spring compared to winter, we aren't quite finished with winter yet. A fairly strong storm system is expected to move just south and east of the state this afternoon and overnight. There is plenty of warm air overrunning the system, allowing temperatures today to range from the low 40s in northwest Iowa to the mid 60s in southeast Iowa! In fact this system will bring precip ranging from snow and sleet, to rain and even thunderstorms in some portions of the state. Expect rain to be the primary form throughout the southeastern quarter of the state, a mix or rain/snow is expected in the northwestern portion of the state. However, the amounts should be fairly light thus no major hazards are expected.

It is the portion in between, that will likely have rain turning into snow and is also expected to get significant enough precip accumulations to warrant some hazardous wording. Currently the Des Moines NWS along with the Omaha NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of the state. These areas within the advisory are expected to receive 2-4 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts. This will occur after some rain accumulation during the day, allowing for a slushy mix on the roadways.

Other potential problems today will include the patchy flooding or ponding of water due to the snow melt and precipitation. More updates on this system and any potential problems tonight...

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