White Christmas?!?

Well although there are plenty of people who don’t like the snow, most of them still want a white Christmas and as of now very few have that. So, what does the forecast say about this? Well it shows that some areas of the plains may get there shot at a white Christmas thanks to this next system midweek this week. Before I go on about the track of this system and any type of precipitation, I will put the nice disclaimer that the track is highly likely to change at least somewhat in which could change what an area gets as far as precipitation goes and with the change in track/strength the temperature profiles from this storm are likely to change and thus have a change in potential precipitation type.

Now as for this system, a low pressure system breaking off from the southern jet stream should move nearly northward from the Texas panhandle into the Nebraska panhandle or at least some portion of NE. This type of low is called a Texas Hooker, sorry just had to share the great name. Once this system makes its’ way northward, which is likely to occur during the day on Tuesday, it will be picked up by a shortwave from the north. This will likely give the system upper level support that it needs to strengthen during the night Tuesday and into Wednesday as it starts to move towards the east across Nebraska and into Iowa. The track of this system should then take it into the Great Lakes region, but as it does show most of the support for the low seems to be taken away and thus weakening is expected. So, in review, areas of the western Plains are likely to be affected by this system Tuesday night into Wednesday with the potential of light freezing rain as well as snow. Snow amounts just beyond the mountains in CO and into western Nebraska and western Kansas are likely to be in the 6-12 inch range. Other areas of NE/KS and areas southeast are likely to see significant amounts of rain, over an inch likely.

As this system moves across the plains, winter weather will potentially affect areas of Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota for the most part. As the low moves across the central portions of the state as far as the current forecast goes, the areas to the south/east and thus southeast of the low will likely receive rain as the main precipitation type. Just to the north, northwest and west of the low, with warmer air still residing in some parts of the atmosphere the potential will likely be there for freezing rain. Further north of the low, approx. 75-100 miles and beyond you will then see more light snow likely with more significant snows possible northwest and west of the low about that same distance and beyond. But, as you will likely guess, the most significant winter weather that will come into play will be the freezing rain. I should get another update up tomorrow night or sometime on Tuesday to give a better idea of the track and potential hazardous conditions. For now, definitely need to keep an eye on this system as it does hold potential…