Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Slightly Below Normal

This weeks' forecast doesn't feature the nice and mild temperatures that we've seen over the past few weeks. Rather, the high and lows will both be slightly below normal for the state. Highs for this time of year should range from near 70 in the northwest to the lower 70s in the southeast. Average lows should be in the lower 40s for northwest Iowa, and ranging upward to the upper 40s in southeast Iowa. Today's highs across the state varied from the lower 60s in the northeast, to the lower/mid 70s along the Missouri River. Lows overnight were in the mid 30s over northwest Iowa, and increased to the upper 40s over southeast Iowa. So the lows were close to average in most places except northwest Iowa, and the highs were near normal for most areas besides the eastern half of the state.

Lows tonight are expected to range from near 40 along the northern border, to the upper 40s in the south. Highs tomorrow will be below normal, with highs not even reaching 60 in the northeast; to highs only in the mid 60s for the most part in southwestern Iowa. Lows overnight on Wednesday under clear and calm conditions will drop to near freezing levels in some parts of the state. Mid 30s in the northwest, to lower 40s in the southeast will leave everyone pretty chilly as they wake up for Thursday. Mainly sunny skies on Thursday will allow the temperatures to rebound nicely, lower 60s in the east to the lower 70s in the west. We enter the last day of the work week with lows overnight on Thursday in the upper 30s to the mid 40s from north to south. Friday's highs will range from the lower 60s to the lower 70s from northeast to southwest, not changing much from the previous days of the week.

The weekend should see a small warm-up before our next storm system takes aim for the area as early as Sunday. Rain chances may linger for a while early next week, with temperatures remaining near or just below normal...

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Sunday Night Thunderstorms Update #3

Last update of the night as the storms have become a long line of showers and embedded thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front. This line of thunderstorm currently is along and northwest of a Forest City, to Fort Dodge, to Logan line. A few of these storms may be able to produce gusty winds in excess of 40 mph, and some small hail. The strongest cell at this time is near Gilmore City, some marginal hail may be possible as Des Moines NWS has mentioned that the storm is pushing the severe limits right now.

The line of storms should move to the southeast at generally 25 mph, continuing to progress through the state during the nighttime hours. The east/west extent of the line is fairly significant, nearly 100 miles at this time. Have a good night... Enjoy the sound of rain and thunder!

Sunday Night Thunderstorms Update #2 & NBC Sunday Night Football

Another update on the thunderstorms over and entering parts of Iowa is below, but first a little off-topic discussion on a feature of NBC's Sunday Night Football halftime show.

NBC featured the football team of Applington-Parkersburg, which have their home field based in Parkersburg, IA which was destroyed by the EF5 tornado in May this year. The show really didn't touch on too much of what was going on in the city, and only featured short clips of the city and the football team. It is a pretty good story, as the AP Falcons are undefeated this year and are the #1 team in class 1-A. Just thought I would share this beings the story is based in Iowa and continues to be in national headlines.


The severe weather threat has dwindled with the sunset, only a few warnings remain in effect over northeast Nebraska at this time. Thunderstorms do continue to push southeastward into northwest Iowa with gusty winds, and some potentially small hail. Other showers, isolated thunderstorms, have also continued to expand over parts of northwest Iowa. Expect mainly showers to continue over north-central Iowa for the next hour or two, and expand as the cold front enters western Iowa tonight.

Sunday Night Thunderstorms Update #1

Severe thunderstorms have continued to develop farther south along the cold front over southeastern South Dakota, and much of northeast Nebraska. Other thunderstorms have moved east from east-central South Dakota into southwest Minnesota. The thunderstorms over southwestern Minnesota should not pose a severe threat, but may produce some locally heavy rainfall over the next few hours. A line of thunderstorms is likely to move east/southeast and enter portions of northwest Iowa by 9 PM. This line of thunderstorms is likely to persist into the nighttime hours as it transverses the state.

A small complex of showers/thunderstorms has developed over mainly Buena Vista county in northwest Iowa. This complex is moving southeast around 20 mph, and has occasionally produced some signs of strengthening. Conditions do not seem favorable for severe weather, thus locally heavy rain and lightning should remain the only concerns as the storms hold together for the next few hours. Updates on the thunderstorms will be likely through the evening as the potential for a few severe thunderstorm warnings to be issued for northwest Iowa.

Sunday Night Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms have developed along two cold fronts that cover portions of the Dakotas and Nebraska, a weak low pressure system, outflow boundary, and warm front also exist with this complex system just to the west of the state. With the thunderstorms that have developed in South Dakota, several severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued. This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for eastern South Dakota, and eastern Nebraska. This severe thunderstorm watch is in effect from 5 PM until 11 PM tonight, thunderstorms should continue to develop along both the leading weak cold front, and the secondary cold front. The front and thunderstorms should push east/southeast into Minnesota and Iowa during the early overnight hours. You can view some of the latest radar images that I've viewing on the Iowa Chaser Homepage.

The severe weather risk over Iowa is fairly low, as with sunset it is expected that the storms should weaken below severe limits. Some gusty winds, and small hail, however, cannot be completely be ruled out over western Iowa. The thunderstorms may continue into central Iowa during the overnight hours, and over eastern Iowa through mid-afternoon on Monday. Lows overnight tonight will range from the mid 50s in southeast Iowa, to the lower 50s over parts of northwest Iowa. The extreme northwest corner of the state may be behind the cold front throughout the night, leading to lows as cool as the mid 40s. Highs tomorrow will show the cooler air, although only a degree or two cooler than today. Near 70 along the northern borders of the state, to the lower 70s across the southern third of the state.

A cooler and drier week should be ahead for the remainder of the week across the state. Long range weather models are however hinting at some October excitement beginning as early next weekend...

Friday, September 26, 2008

Football (& Weekend) Forecast

Didn't have time to make any forecasts for tonight's high school football games, but the weather was obviously great throughout the state. Game time temperatures should have ranged from the lower 70s at kick-off to the lower 60s by game end. Winds were fairly light throughout the state, so they shouldn't have bothered any aspect of the game either. This forecast won't stay quite as good as the Hawkeyes start out their Big 10 conference schedule with a game against Northwestern. The detailed forecast for their game is below, but first a look at the entire weekend for the state of Iowa.

Lows tonight will be fairly mild, ranging from the mid 50s in eastern Iowa to the lower 60s in western Iowa just ahead of a cold front. This cold front should begin to cut into the state during the early morning hours, giving northwest Iowa a small chance of a showers or thunderstorm. Winds ahead of the front should be southerly at 5-10 mph, but behind the front winds will switch to northwesterly and increase to 10-20 mph. The front should make its' way into central Iowa before Noon on Saturday, with a chance of showers/thunderstorms throughout central and eastern Iowa during the afternoon. Highs will be fairly uniform across the state, with various degrees of cloud cover depending on the location of any rain. The highs will mainly range from north to south, from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Any rain chances should be out of the forecast by Saturday night, with the front past the state, lows will drop into the lower 50s for northern Iowa and range to the upper 50s in southern Iowa. Partly cloudy skies from the overnight will continue for Sunday for most of the state, however, mostly cloudy skies may fill in the west as another round of showers/thunderstorms makes its' way into the forecast. Highs during the afternoon should reach the lower 70s in northeast Iowa to near 80 in the southwest. The rain chances will increase during the overnight hours on Sunday night, mainly over central and western Iowa. Low temperatures will be in the mid 50s to near 60 across the state...

Rain chances look to continue on Monday and Monday night, followed by a very chilly week for the entire state. Highs in the 60s and some lows in the 30s for some areas!! Look for those details in later updates...

College Football Forecast
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes -- 11:05 AM @ Iowa City

Pre-game festivities shouldn't have any problems, under partly cloudy skies and winds from the southeast at fairly light rates. Temperatures should start out in the upper 50s, but reach into the mid 60s as game time approaches. Kick-off just after 11 AM should have a temperature around 67 degrees with partly cloudy skies, those southeasterly winds should continue at 5-10 mph. The cold front should approach the stadium near halftime, with winds becoming easterly near 10 mph with gusts upwards of 15 mph. Skies should become mostly cloudy, and a few showers and even a thunderstorm isn't out of the question for the second half of the game. The temperature should still rise into the mid 70s for the game, but some wet conditions may yield some chilly fans if they aren't prepared.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

September 23 Lightning Pictures

I decided that I would upload some of the pictures that I took last night of the lightning near Ames, Iowa between 8 PM and around 9 PM. I was positioned southwest of Ames waiting for the storms to arrive, they were previously severe warned, but at the time of arrival to my location the storms featured only 40 mph winds and some heavy rain. The lightning even within the core of the storm was quite impressive, several CG strikes that were nearby to create amazing thunder.

The images that I captured were definitely not the greatest, as the heavy rains and windy conditions meant that I couldn't pull out the tripod. This led me to capture all of the images featured by holding the camera against the door frame and using manual shutter release. Another problem with the photos was the manual focus was off, creating many of the images to look 'soft' or in other words, the lightning isn't the sharpest that it could have been. Either way, no amazing shots that I really missed out on, so chalk it up as having to be more prepared next time.

September 23 Lightning Gallery

As you can see, this is a new type of setup that I have for this gallery. I believe that with time I will make all my galleries in this format, or some variation of sorts. Using the flash slideshow leaves the images clearer, and with less distortion compared to my ongoing gallery I have now. Let me know what you think of the new format, and which one you'd rather see!

Storm Totals

Thunderstorms and showers have become fairly limited across the state, with only southeastern Iowa expected to receive any additional rainfall today, however, these amounts should remain under a tenth of an inch. While the southeast remains mostly cloudy, the rest of the state should see partly cloudy skies once the dense fog lifts. Expects the high temperatures to range from the mid 70s to near 80 from north to south across the state. Lows tonight should range from the upper 40s in northeastern Iowa, to the mid 50s across northwest and southeast Iowa, and then the upper 50s to near 60 across southwest Iowa. We'll also see the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast after midnight for areas of western Iowa (mainly northwest). These showers and storms should continue over mainly northwest Iowa on Thursday morning, while the rest of the state should remain dry. Highs on Thursday should range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s from northeast to southwest. Lows overnight in the mid 50s over eastern Iowa, to the lower 60s in western Iowa.

A look at some of the rainfall totals from yesterdays' and last nights' showers and storms:

Audubon - 3.59"
Mason City - 1.63"
Atlantic - 1.33"
Red Oak - 1.21"
Harlan - 0.68"
Ames - 0.47"
Pella - 0.33"
Sioux City - 0.32"
Des Moines - 0.17"
Ottumwa - 0.09"
Spencer - 0.04"
Cedar Rapids - 0.01"

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Continued Thunderstorms

Scattered thunderstorms developed across the state this afternoon, some of which became severe over southeast Iowa. These thunderstorms have continued to move northeastward during the afternoon/evening hours, and are continuing to develop across southeast Iowa. As we head into the day tomorrow, these thunderstorms should have moved across much of central Iowa and have become less numerous overnight. The severe weather threat with these storms should be fairly low, with only one or two warnings expected for mainly gusty winds.

At this time, areas that are west of a Forest City, to Carrol, to Omaha line, should be out of the thunderstorm chances. Areas east of there should continue to see thunderstorms throughout the night, or tomorrow morning. Storm total rainfall amounts should range between a quarter inch to an inch for the most part. Although some localized areas may see upwards of an inch or two inches where some training of the thunderstorm occurs.

Storm reports today have been for large hail, and a damaging wind gust; all of the reports have been fairly marginal with less than an inch diameter and wind gusts likely barely reaching 60 mph if at all.

Severe Weather Update (Sep. 23)

A line of showers and thunderstorms has been slowly progressing eastward through the morning and afternoon hours. This line of storms has developed along a differential heating axis that is approximately 50 miles east of the cold front. The cold front will likely move eastward and begin to push these thunderstorms off to the east with time, moving them into central Iowa by evening and into eastern Iowa during the overnight hours.

The Storm Prediction Center did issue a discussion earlier this afternoon indicating that given moderate heating and moisture ahead of the cold front and cloud cover, that a few storms may be capable of severe weather. If this does occur, a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued later this afternoon that may encompass much of the western half of the state. The main threats with any of the storms will be damaging winds and some large hail, although the gusty winds with any storms are likely to be above 40 mph given strong winds in general this afternoon/evening. Any later updates will include the issuance of watches/warnings, or a general update on the progression of the storms.

Severe Weather (Sep. 23)

The SPC has now upgraded areas of western Iowa into a slight risk of severe weather for this afternoon/evening. Moderate instability combined with fairly strong unidirectional shear will allow some thunderstorms capable of producing severe wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Although there is also a small chance of large hail, the wind threat should be the main event.

Thunderstorm associated with last nights' convection have already entered the state and are continuing to affect portions of north-central Iowa currently. These thunderstorms should continue to move off to the east through the morning hours, and exit the state by Noon. Behind this area of showers/thunderstorms, the sky should clear allowing for sufficient heating to take place for the initiation of other thunderstorms this afternoon along the cold front. It does appear that the best threat for severe weather will be over northwest Iowa, as the best combination of shear/instability should be present there.

Additional updates are possible later this afternoon...

Monday, September 22, 2008

First Fall Thunderstorms

A large line of thunderstorms has formed from the Canadian border through the Dakotas and into central Nebraska. A few of these storms have been severe warned for the possibility of both large hail and damaging winds. These storms should continue to move northeastward overnight tonight, as the cold front responsible for these storms also slowly slides eastward.

This cold front will continue to move eastward during the day tomorrow, reaching Iowa by the afternoon hours. This front will move across Iowa, and likely slow as the upper level features begin to pull off to the north. The front should exit the state during the early morning hours of Wednesday, taking a majority of the precipitation with it. Total rain amounts with the storms during the afternoon and overnight tomorrow could be fairly high, with plenty of moisture available and continued lift along the cold front. Anywhere from a half inch to an inch may be possible with the strongest storms. These strong storms may be able to produce an isolated strong wind gust during the afternoon hours, with a very small chance that a storm could reach severe limits given the limited instability and shear.

Although there is a limited severe threat, the timing across central Iowa may bring the thunderstorms through just after dusk. This means the potential for some lightning photography if the storms are cooperative, so I may have updates tomorrow evening on the storms if they are strong. Otherwise, look for some moderate to heavy rainfall tomorrow across the state from the morning hours through the afternoon in western Iowa; then over central Iowa overnight and through eastern Iowa by Noon on Wednesday.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Some Rain...

Although there is rain in the forecast for the first half of the week, the weather looks to remain quite nice for the state through the next week. Temperatures should remain near or above normal through the week, with only a few scattered showers or thunderstorms possible as a cold front moves through the state. A look at the entire week ahead is just below:

Upper 70s to lower 80s today for high temperatures, with mostly clear skies throughout the state. Lows overnight tonight should drop into the mid 50s in the east, and only the lower 60s in the west. Moisture begins to increase in the western third of the state, just ahead and along a warm front that will give some of the first shower/thunderstorm chances for the state this week. These chances enter the western third of the state for Monday morning into the afternoon as the front quickly moves off to the north. Highs on Monday should be in the upper 70s and lower 80s throughout the state, with clear to cloudy skies from east to west. Monday night lows should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s from east to west, as increased moisture and clouds keep the west warmer. Through the day on Monday you will also have to watch for the winds, as they increase from the south at 15-25 mph, with some gusts likely above 30 mph.

A fairly diffuse cold front will begin to affect the state on Tuesday, bringing the continued chance of showers and thunderstorms to the state. Tuesday into Tuesday night will see the best threat of thunderstorms, with all but the southeast corner likely to see the chance of rain. Tuesday highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s from north to south; with lows overnight in the lower 50s to lower 60s from northwest to southeast as the cold front affects the temperatures in northwest Iowa.

Small chances of a lingering shower continue for eastern Iowa on Wednesday, but highs should be in the mid to upper 70s across the state. Wednesday night lows in the mid to upper 50s across the state. Thursday and Friday remain just above normal for temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the state; Overnight lows in the mid 50s to near 60 across the state. We look to continue the nice weather into next weekend and potentially even through the entire next week as well!

The next weather update is likely Monday evening, as the potential for thunderstorms is bringing up the potential for an isolated severe storm. Details on that threat will be the topic of that discussion.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Football Forecasts!

After last weeks' chilly and/or rainy play throughout the state during both Friday night's high school games and the Iowa vs Iowa State game, this weeks' weather here in the state of Iowa looks amazing! Iowa State will take to the road, although to fabulous Las Vegas where they take on UNLV after they upset Arizona State last week. Iowa will come off of their in-state rivalry win with a game against Pittsburgh, at Pittsburgh. Once again we'll take a look at the two college games first, then look at some of the premier match-ups in high school football. Want to see your game forecasted? Send me an email, or leave a comment, and I'll be sure to check out your game next week!

Iowa State @ UNLV - 8 PM CDT (6 PM local)
Iowa State will be welcomed on the road by a team who is coming off of a huge win against a top 25 opponent. Iowa State will try to fight off any feelings left from the sour Iowa loss last week, hoping to get their offense back on track, and have the defense step up against the rush. Kick-off at 6 PM local time in Las Vegas will leave the sun setting on a wonderful day out there. The afternoon high is expected to be in the mid 90s, but a drop to 90 degrees is likely by the time the game begins. The temperature should continue to drop nicely, finding the 80 degree mark by game end. Windy during the afternoon, but will die down some for game time, still expect winds from the southwest at a breezy 10-20 mph.

Iowa @ Pittsburgh - 11:05 AM CDT (~Noon local)
Iowa finds themselves slight underdogs on the road against Pittsburgh, but momentum from last week will definitely aid in making it an exciting game once again. The forecast for the game is much better than last week, with only partly cloudy skies and warming temperatures. Kick-off temperature of 66 degrees should rise into the lower 70s by halftime and continue to rise slowly through the end of the game. Winds from the southwest will stay fairly light, generally around 5 mph.

High School Football - ~7 PM Kick-offs

Class 4-A
#6 Iowa City High vs. Iowa City West
An inter-city game in Iowa City will be our key match-up in Class 4-A this week. Expect a temperature in the mid 70s for the start of the game, with a drop into the upper 60s by game end. Clear skies with winds from the southwest at 5-10 will keep Iowa City's weather for football very nice.

Class 3-A
#1 Bishop Heelan Catholic (Sioux City) vs. Estherville-Lincoln-Central
The #1 team in the state will travel to an ELC team that lost their first game of the season last week by a 13-12 score. The weather in northwest Iowa shouldn't be a problem either, with a kick-off temperature of 74 degrees. Expect the winds to stay fairly light, southwest at 5-10 mph. By game end, the temperature will have dropped into the mid 60s.

Class 2-A
#3 IKM/Manning vs. Kuemper Catholic (Carroll)
Heading down to southwestern Iowa, the combination of IKM and Manning look to take on their toughest game of the year thus far. Skies remain clear, with temperatures beginning in the mid 70s and dropping to the mid 60s by game end. Winds remain light, southerly at 5-10 mph.

Class 1-A
Saint Ansgar vs. # 2 Emmetsburg
Back to northwest Iowa, where the E-Hawks will take the field at home. Kick-off temperature of 74 degrees, dropping to 65 by the game ending horn. Winds like the rest of the state will be between 5-10 mph under the clear skies.

Class A
#1 Madrid vs. Colo-Nesco
Into central Iowa where the #1 team in Class A will take on a Colo-Nesco team that has played well thus far this season. Mid 70s as the game begins, with a drop to the mid 60s at game end. Clear skies will allow the stars to shine, and light winds will keep the game weather great.

#2 West Central (Maynard) vs. Springville
Ending this week in eastern Iowa, where two good offenses in 8-man will go against each other. Kick-off temperature will be a bit cooler than the rest of the state, still a nice 72 degrees. The light winds and clear skies will allow the temperature to drop to a brisk 64 degrees by game end.

Check back next Thursday as I'll once again take a look at the football forecast for the weekend.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Boring Weather!?!

If you enjoy nice sunny skies with temperatures in the 70s, then this week is for you. After our latest round of heavy rains across the state, the pattern over the central US is going to be quite boring. An upper level ridge will be in place, bringing any fronts and low pressure systems well to the north. A high pressure is likely to remain focused over the plains through at least the next week. With the high pressure in place, expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies to be in the forecast with general climatology for temperatures for the most part.

Highs today were below average, only in the 60s for much of the state while averages in the 70s. Tomorrow will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, and hover around the same through this upcoming weekend. Tonight's lows will range from the lower 40s to the upper 40s from generally north to south. Leaving a near chilly start for tomorrow, but highs will rise into the mid 70s along the Mississippi River to near 80 along the Missouri. These highs will remain within a degree or two of Tuesday's highs for the remainder of the week, so expect the mid to upper 70s throughout the state, with a few 80-degree marks thrown in along the western borders of Iowa. Lows overnight on Tuesday will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s over the state, and become even warmer on Wednesday night with lows ranging from the lower to mid 50s. These lows will stay fairly consistent into the weekend as the nice weather continues.

Enjoy the week of nice weather, our next chance at any change doesn't look to be until mid next week.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

A Wet Weekend

Late last week and into the weekend was quite wet for a large portion of Iowa, with heavy rains and tropical moisture brought it not by Ike, but rather the Pacific tropical system Lowell. This tropical system came through northwestern Mexico and into the central plains, allowing several inches of rain to fall throughout the plains states. Some of the heaviest rains were in northern Missouri, Illinois, and southeast Iowa. A few flash flood or flood warnings were issued over the weekend for parts of southeast Iowa, but the water has since subsided and the forecast calls for sunny to partly sunny skies for the remainder of the week.

Temperatures through the week will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s today, then should remain above 70 throughout the week. A few areas may be able to reach the lower 80s during mid-week across the state, either way, it'll be a good week to enjoy.

A few of the rainfall totals from this past week of rain shows the winning city being Fort Madison, with 7.29 inches of rain. Other parts of southeast Iowa, including Burlington (6.21"), Lamoni (5.67"), and the Quad Cities (4.06") saw impressive amounts. Cedar Rapids and Iowa City both saw amounts over 3 inches, with Dubuque, Des Moines, Ames, and Marshalltown all surpassing the 2 inch mark. Sioux City was the only northwest Iowa spot that got passed the 1 inch mark, with other areas such as Spencer and Estherville only getting around three-quarters of an inch.

Detailed forecasts for the remainder of the week in later updates!

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Football Forecast

It is that time of the week again, high school football across the state of Iowa will get underway tomorrow evening. And Saturday is the big intra-state rivalry game of Iowa State vs Iowa! I've decided to try something new out this week, so not only will I give the forecast for both Iowa and Iowa State and their game, but showcase some of the top games in the state for high school. But, first let's start off with Iowa State vs Iowa:

Pre-game festivities may be a little wet, with a good chance of showers throughout the morning hours. Temperatures should be in the mid 60s, with calm winds and cloudy skies. By kick-off we should see 68 degrees, winds variable under 5 mph, and once again some more isolated showers. Throughout the game, temperatures should slowly rise to near 70, with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers possible. Winds should remain variable, and under 5 mph.

Friday Nigh Football Forecast:

Class 3-A
#5 Marion (2-0) vs. #7 Central DeWitt (2-0)
The first of four forecasts of two top 10 teams in their class facing off. The kick-off temperature of 70 degrees will feel nice, dropping to 65 by game end. Mostly cloudy skies, but with occasional showers likely. Winds generally easterly, under 5 mph.

Class 2-A
#1 Solon (2-0) vs. #9 Wilton (2-0)
Sticking around our Cedar Rapids & Iowa City areas, this match-up should start off with a temperature near 70 degrees, dropping to 66 degrees. Mostly cloudy skies with the occasional rain showers slowly the pace of the game here as well. Winds will be generally from the east, but too light to matter (under 5 mph).

Class 1-A
#1 Aplington-Parkersburg (2-0) vs. #8 Grundy Center (2-0)
A-P is showing that they can recover from anything thrown at them, with the tornado earlier this summer, the team is off to a great start and is even going to be featured on NBC in the coming weeks. The kick off should yield a temperature of 69 degrees, with a steady drop to 64. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail, however, only a slight chance for a shower or two during the game. Winds should be northeasterly, but under 5 mph.

#3 West Lyon (1-1) vs. #10 Lawton-Bronson (1-1)
Off to northwest Iowa, will lead us to Inwood, IA; home of the West Lyon Wildcats. Game should start off with a temperature near 68, dropping down to 62 by game end. Skies should be partly cloudy, thus should stay dry if you are at this game. Winds like the rest of the state should be light and variable.

#3 North Sentral Kossuth (2-0) vs. Graettinger-Terril (2-0)
Staying in northwest Iowa for this match-up in 8-man, with G/T being ranked in another poll, plus it being my high school will lead me to forecast this game. A 68 degree kick-off temperature will drop to 63 by the end of the game. Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, but the northwest half of the state should stay dry during game time. Winds once again light and variable.

September 11 Showers/Thunderstorm

4:45 PM Update: A band of showers and an isolated thunderstorm continues to develop across portions of central and western Iowa. Currently this line extends from near Grundy Center to the southwest through Ames, to Guthrie Center and then expands to include a good portion of the southwest corner of Iowa. You can check out the latest radar/satellite combination on the Iowa Chaser homepage.

These showers/thunderstorms continue to develop and move northeastward over time this afternoon and into the early nighttime hours, likely expanding in coverage. The strongest storms are in southern Nebraska currently, and thus the heaviest rainfall amounts with these storms may still come later for southwestern Iowa. Heavy rain and a few rumbles are likely to be the strongest that the storms become, total rainfall amounts should range between a quarter of an inch to an inch in some locations.

A few current rainfall totals:

ISU Campus: 1.10
Brooklyn: 1.01
Waterloo: 0.99
Cedar Rapids: 0.91
Spencer: 0.74
Sioux City: 0.62
Ames Airport: 0.48
Dubuque: 0.36
Mason City: 0.33
Ottumwa: 0.10
Des Moines: 0.01

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Warmer and Wetter

After last nights' well below normal temperatures of mid 30s to lower 40s, including a record tying low in Ottumwa, IA, we'll be on our way back up in the temperature side of things. However, this will come with increased south winds and thus increased moisture. Meaning that we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over at least part of the state beginning on Wednesday night and continuing through Saturday night.

Tonight's lows should range from the low 40s in eastern Iowa to the lower 50s in western Iowa. This difference in lows will likely be a result of some stratus clouds moving into the western third of the state. These clouds may hang around somewhat during the day tomorrow, with at least other fair weather cumulus developing much like today. This mix of clouds will keep temperatures in the range of 70s from northeast (low 70s) to southwest (upper 70s).

Wednesday night will have the first wave move just north of the state, which may lead to some scattered showers or thunderstorms over mainly northwest Iowa. Lows overnight should range from the low 50s in eastern Iowa under clear skies, to the lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies in western Iowa. Additional energy coming off of the trough located along the Rockies will continue to pose the potential for more showers and thunderstorms across much of the state. These showers/thunderstorms and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the lower to mid 70s throughout the state. These showers and thunderstorms should become limited to the southern half of the state for Thursday night, with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s from north to south across the state under mostly cloudy skies.

The trough that briefly stalled near the Rockies will begin to move onto the plains during the day on Friday, and move through the state overnight into Saturday. This will leave very little time between rounds of showers/storms for the state. Increased chances begin on Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday afternoon for a majority of the state. By Saturday evening, the showers/storms should be over mainly eastern Iowa and ending for the entire state by Saturday night. Temperatures on Friday should be in the lower to mid 70s across the state. Lows overnight in the mid 50s in northwest Iowa to near 60 across much of southern Iowa. Saturday's highs should be fairly even throughout the state, ranging from the low 70s to mid 70s. We'll end the week with overnight lows dropping once again into the 50s throughout the state.

So a quick first glance at your Iowa State vs Iowa football game has a chance of showers or isolated thunderstorm throughout game-time. Temperatures should be near 70 at kick-off and only increase a couple of degrees, winds luckily will be fairly light at 5-10 mph, mainly southerly.

Notes: Another update to the forecast is likely on Thursday, and a final forecast for the Iowa State vs Iowa football game will be made on Friday.
You may also notice some visual changes to the blog, as I decided to expand the width and separate the blog posts with a more defined line.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Wet & Chilly

Not a bad day today with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures around the 70-degree mark here in Ames. Other portions of the state have seen occasional showers this afternoon, with cooler temperatures at those times. These conditions will be even worse come tomorrow afternoon, where the rain will be more heavier and widespread, and the temperatures even cooler. Thankfully it will be a one day occurrence, after which we'll warm up slowly and see some sunshine before more chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Mostly cloudy skies throughout the state tonight will keep low temperatures a little warmer. Expect showers to begin to move into the western third of the state by sunrise, and slowly overtake the state into the afternoon hours. Lows overnight should range from the mid 40s in northwest Iowa to the mid 50s in southeast Iowa. With mostly cloudy and/or rainy skies throughout the day tomorrow across the state, highs will be extremely hampered. The state will see highs only in the upper 50s or lower 60s, with northerly winds 10-20 mph. The rain, and most of the cloud cover, will be limited to eastern Iowa during the early nighttime hours. By sunrise the state should have partly cloudy skies throughout, with the temperatures dropping quickly.

Monday night lows will be very chilly, the coldest since springtime, as upper 30s to mid 40s will be present throughout the state. The mention of frost has been thrown around a few times in various weather discussions, but if it does occur it will be very localized and most likely in north-central Iowa.

Beyond Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday should see only partly cloudy skies and warming temperatures ahead of our next storm system. Tuesday's highs in the mid 60s to near 70 from east to west across the state, with winds turning southerly with time. Tuesday night lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west again, with those southerly winds having a good effect in western Iowa. Wednesday's highs will be in the 70s throughout the state, from east to west in gradient. Wednesday night begins the next chance of precipitation in the form of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Lows overnight should be in the mid 50s to near 60 from northeast to southwest across the state...

More details on Wednesday and Thursday rainfall in later updates... The next update will also have a first look at the Iowa State vs Iowa football forecast for Saturday!

Friday, September 5, 2008

College Football Forecast (Iowa State & Iowa)

Iowa State vs. Kent State
6:00 PM -- Ames, IA

Partly cloudy afternoon skies will allow highs in the lower 70s for the tailgating before the game. Kickoff temperatures are likely in the upper 60s with a light westerly wind of 5-10 mph. As the game continues into the evening, temperatures will drop to near 60 as the Cyclones near a victory. Winds are likely to continue to be fairly light at 5-10 mph, but may shift more southerly. A few showers may begin to move near the stadium by the end of the game, but it will definitely become cloudier as the game goes on. A bit chilly, with the potential for some sprinkles late in the game, but it should be an exciting game nonetheless.

Iowa vs Florida International
11:03 AM -- Iowa City, IA

A chilly morning for tailgating, with temperatures rising from the mid 50s into the mid 60s by kickoff. Winds throughout the game should vary from northwest to southwest, at mainly 5-10 mph. Partly cloudy skies should allow the sunshine to peak through at times, allowing temperatures to near 70 degrees as the game nears end. A nice forecast for what should be an easy win for the Hawkeyes...

Friday Showers

A weak wave and associated support allowed for a complex of showers to move into the state this morning, and continued to move east/northeast over the state this afternoon into this evening. These showers continue to bring light rain to northeast Iowa this evening, but should move out later tonight. Tonight's high school football games shouldn't see too much of an effect by these showers, unless of course you are in northeast Iowa. The rest of the state should just be chilly and a bit wet from previous rainfall.

The next chance of rainfall as mentioned in previous posts will come Saturday night, over mainly western Iowa. This rainfall will continue during the day on Sunday over much of the state, with chances over the state on Sunday night as well. Highs over the weekend in the mid 60s to mid 70s; lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Rain's Already Away

Although forecasts indicated that Gustav may have kept some rain into eastern Iowa tonight, the rain from the remnants is already in eastern Illinois. Gustav moved quicker to the northeast than models had forecasted, thus leaving the state with less rain and a shorter time period in which it fell. Total rainfall amounts ranged from a few hundredths in central Iowa to over 2 inches in areas like Keokuk, Fort Madison, and the Quad Cities. With the cloud cover also moving out quicker than expected, lows tonight will likely range from the mid 40s to lower 50s from northwest to the southeast, however, a majority of the state will be in the 40s.

The weekend will be a mix of mostly cloudy skies, and isolated showers. Skies should be mostly cloudy across the state, with the mix of showers coming in mainly Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Saturday should be in the lower 70s throughout the state, with lows overnight dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s from northwest to southeast. Sunday's highs will vary from northwest to southeast once again, as the trough moves into the state, allowing another cool down in the temperatures. Highs in the mid 60s for northwest Iowa, lower 70s for north-central and northeast Iowa, and lower to mid 70s across the southern half of the state. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s from mainly northwest to southeast.

As mentioned, small chances for showers will be in the forecast for much of the weekend. The best chance does look to be for Saturday night, however, don't be surprised to see isolated showers across the state at any time during the weekend.

Look for the forecasts for both the Iowa State and Iowa home football games this weekend in tomorrow's update.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Good ol' Gustav

The remnants of the tropical system formerly known as Gustav finally began to move northward this afternoon. This northward track will take them into Missouri, and then into western Illinois, as it picks up speed into the Great Lakes area by Friday. Gustav still has plenty of moisture associated with the low pressure center, as up to 5 inches or even more is possible over portions of MO/IA/IL. Besides the rainfall, the clouds over a large portion of the state will keep high temperatures well below normal tomorrow.

Additional shortwaves will move over the northern plains into this weekend, giving us small chances of showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the next week, with the potential for a few nights of well below normal lows if clear skies and calm conditions occur. For now, we'll look in on the details of what Gustav will have to offer.

Light rain to moderate showers will move into the state tonight, southeast of a Des Moines to Waterloo line. The heaviest rain will occur in the southeast corner of the state, with a rapid decline in rainfall amounts as you move northwest. Tonights' lows will range from the mid 40s in northwest Iowa, to the mid 50s in southeast Iowa where the cloud cover and rain will be occurring. The rain will continue southeast of a Creston to Des Moines to Waterloo to LaCrosse, WI line during the day tomorrow. Highs will range from the lower 70s in the western third of the state, where clear skies may likely prevail. The central and eastern thirds of the state will be socked with cloud cover, leaving temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday night will have the rain moving out, with only light showers remaining to areas that are east of Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the state, with plenty of chilly air filtering in.

Friday into the weekend will see the next system making its' entrance and likely producing showers and a potential thunderstorms. Highs aren't likely to make it above the mid 70s, with lows dropping into the 40s and 50s across the state. More details on the weekend in tomorrow's update.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Warm Labor Day... Thunderstorms!

What a great weekend! It was nice and warm, actually above average with some of the highs today (Monday) reaching into the upper 80s and 90s throughout the state. Albeit windy during the festivities, the sunshine and temperatures allowed for some amazing outdoor times I'm sure. The overnights through the holiday weekend were on the chilly side, with clear skies and calm conditions quickly occurring after sunset, the lows dropped into the 50s for a majority of the state. Those chillier nights did mean one thing though, great campfire weather!

With the warm weather, and strong winds from the south, this led to some influx of moisture to the state that really hasn't seen more than a few days of solid rain over the entire previous month. A cold front sparked off numerous thunderstorms across the central Dakotas and central Nebraska. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued earlier this evening as a few storm in north-central Nebraska were capable of damaging winds. The storms have weakened with sunset, now scattered showers and thunderstorms exist behind the cold front that is moving across the plains. These storms and showers should continue through most of the overnight, and also redevelop with the sun tomorrow during the late-morning and afternoon hours.

The cold front should move into northwest Iowa during the morning hours tomorrow, with showers and thunderstorms following quickly along or just behind the front. Portions of northwest Iowa may see the best rainfall from the frontal passage as some of the upper level support may still be present during the morning hours. As the front continues to sag southeastward during the day, the upper level features are being displaced to the north. This, along with a few other factors, will likely cause the showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours to remain below severe thunderstorm limits. The total rainfall with the front may also decrease when compared to tonight's and the morning showers/storms. The front and its' showers/storms should be placed from northeast to southwest across the center of Iowa by tomorrow evening. Through the evening hours, and into the overnight, the showers and thunderstorms are likely to become very isolated and even nonexistent as you stretch south. Cloudy skies should be present throughout the southeastern half of the state during the overnight hours, with a shower or two possible.

As for temperatures tonight and into mid-week. Overnight lows tonight should be mild, ranging from near 70 in the southeast to near 60 in the northwest. Some sticky or humid conditions may be present over central and eastern Iowa, as dew points are also into the 60s. Tomorrow's highs will have a wide spread, as the cold front captures northwest Iowa before heating can occur while the southeast portions of the state receive another above average day of temperatures. Northwest Iowa behind the front should see only low 70s, while the southeast corner of the state will once again reach the 90-mark. Everywhere in between should see the upper 70s to mid 80s, as the cold front reaches across the state. Tuesday night temperatures just ahead of the front in southeast Iowa should be in the lower 60s. Across the the diagonal half of the state, lows should be in the 50s. The northwest portion of the state will have the strong influx of cool air, with lows dropping into the 40s.

Looking through the rest of the week, expect highs in the lower to mid 70s, and lows mainly in the 50s. The next chance of precipitation comes in on Friday and may last through the weekend, being widespread across the state. More details on the latter half of the week in later updates!

Hurricane Gustav

Hurricane Gustav has made landfall this morning along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, at approximately 8:25 central the eye wall came onshore near or just west of the Grand Isle, Louisiana. The storm made landfall as a category two hurricane, with winds sustained at 110 mph, and should weaken through the day and into the overnight hours. The eye is now just about half-way onshore, with a majority of the outer bands to the north of the eye and already affecting areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Besides areas receiving the damaging winds from the hurricane, several tornado warnings exist as the outer bands continue to spin around the center. A few reports of tornadoes have already been received by the NWS offices in New Orleans, and Mobile, AL.

Plenty of other coverage going on out there today to tune into. I do currently have my radar operating and uploading online to view if you wish:

Latest Image
Loop: Flash Player or Java