First off I need to mention extreme areas of northwest Iowa as well as adjacent areas to the west are under a Freezing Rain Advisory tomorrow morning. The latest text on that advisory for the nearby area can be found here.
This has been in the forecast for quite a few days, each day in which there should be a better idea of what is going to happen is completely opposite. Models came together a few days ago and had a decent idea, making most forecasters believe that they have caught on and should begin to hone in on the solution. Well since that day they have slowly trended warm, cold and now back to warm this morning. Along with trending the low pressure system further to the south with each of the last 4 or 5 runs. Well, tonights’ models’ are going to keep that trend alive, pushing it even 50 miles further south and going opposite temperature wise again, this time going fairly cool.
The lows track was always stated as being important to what type of precipitation you are going to get, well the low is on a current track to pass through Kansas into northern Missouri by Friday morning. This is slower than previously thought and much further south, given trends and current pressure drops in the south the low should begin to take shape over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles tonight and continue to take shape through the day tomorrow as it finally starts to move into southcentral Kansas. By Thursday is should continue to slowly move across Kansas and enter into Northern Missouri early on Friday as it weakens and dissolves into the normal flow during Friday afternoon. The strength of this low is hard to figure out, as it seemingly fluctuates its’ strength over time. With it being a stacked cold core low, once it enters into the central plains it shouldn’t be able to last much more than 48 hours before falling apart completely.
As for the precipitation around this low, currently large amounts of rain/freezing rain and snow are falling across Texas/Oklahoma and Kansas as well as the intermountain areas. Also looks like some light areas of freezing rain are already possible over areas of NE/SD and potentially into IA/MN early morning tomorrow. Tomorrow should features snow across Texas and Oklahoma panhandles’, as well as extreme western Kansas, Colorado and western Nebraska. Freezing rain looks possible just east of that area, through central Nebraska, western Kansas and into eastern portions of the panhandles. During the night on Wednesday and into Thursday snow should continue to move north, putting areas of central/western Nebraska, northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado and into southern South Dakota. Freezing rain looks possible along a line from 50 miles west of Sioux Falls, SD up to Minneapolis, MN and anywhere 100 miles north/south of that line. Thus, putting northwest Iowa in a shot for a tenth or two of freezing rain by latest forecasts…
If you would like a quick forecast made by me, be sure to leave a comment and I will try and answer it with the latest forecast for you. Thanks… Another update sometime tomorrow with the latest on warnings in the area and updated forecasts.
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