Well once again a good looking chase day has went sour, as the SPC has slowly lowered the risks for the favored area through the day in their outlooks. Started out with a 5% tornado risk and hopes of higher, then to a widespread 5%, then to a 2% due to only a few being possible in the isolated cells during first formation and now a 2% simply becuase the threat isn’t that high. Sad day to waste all of the great parameters once again, just like the past who knows how many chases. There has been some storms today, but so far fairly far west of what the original target was going to be. Not sure if anybody got on the storms, but if they did I’m sure it’s going to be better then what others saw waiting for something in eastern NE/western IA.
As for the thunderstorms, they should increase in activity tonight once again with an influence from the low level jet, once that kicks in and gives the atmosphere the surface influence that it needs they should fire quick. Given such high instability today, there should be plenty left over early tonight, with shear values still high could definately see some severe weather overnight tonight in areas with MCS development. So the rain definately isn’t out of the question, but the great chase seems to be. Beings this was the case this afternoon, I’ve vowed myself to going after lightning tonight. Meaning that I will drive to get in a good location for the lightning strikes tonight in hopes of catching something great for once…
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