Well as I stated before about the risk of severe weather making its’ way into the forecast once again, it has and has done so in quite a big way. Despite a warm front being forecasted south of northwest Iowa, north of the front is going to be the best area for severe weather tomorrow. With instability in the extreme category and shear definately supercellular, looks to be another chase day on the northern plains. Although there are still several things that need to be worked out, such as the overnight convection and what cloud debris it could leave for tomorrow and where exactly that warm front will setup at.
Currently with all of the questions, I’m not going to put too much of a forecast into this. I will likely do more of a forecast late tonight once I get a look at the models from tonight and the new Day 1 Outlook from the SPC. Would like to see them go with a 30/30/5 risk, of hail/wind/tornado respectively, especially if we can get the wind/hail hatched and be on the verge of the MOD risk once again. This time, local offices and other chasers as well as models do not seem to have the cap as too much of a concern, but time will tell on that one. All for now, look for another full chase forecast update in around 4 hours or so…
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