Thursday, January 11, 2007

Weekend Snowstorm (Update #3)

Forecast #1 - January 13-15 Snowstorm

The first official forecast that I’m going to make on this storm is still a pretty darn hard one to make, the trend of the models is currently a slightly weaker storm with a further south track. The latest model runs tonight from the NAM/WRF and GFS aren’t in the greatest agreement, with the NAM actually stronger with the system as shown in the snow amounts as well as the 500mb charts. The NAM/WRF has a deeper trough compared to the GFS, but to keep in mind that previous forecasts in the beginning of the week had the low at 500 a closed one. The opening up of this system is going to allow it to most likely move slightly faster and be weaker and could actually account for part of the further south track of the low.

The first forecast map will have to be viewed in another tab if you can and read this along the side, hard to get images to fit correctly into a blog page.

Forecast Map #1 — January 13-15 Snowfall

Nonetheless, the first forecast is a broad map with so many minor changes that could take place over the next 48 hours of models. I pushed the lower snow amounts slightly outside of the models forecasts to compensate for any minor changes that may occur in the track. There should be a fairly tight gradient with the snows, even tighter potentially then I have portrayed on the map. The area within the 6-12 inch range is a broad region, the potential is there for a widespread band of heavy snow amounts across portions of IA/MO as well as IL/KS/NE… Any of the snowfall that does occur could be hazardous due to the high winds expected with this system, blowing and drifting snow with even 3-6 inches could cause some problems. I hope that the map can be better defined by tomorrow nights’ update, currently the forecast just isn’t defined enough to really go out on the limb and do a definite forecast at this time.