Weekend Snowstorm (Update #2)

The GFS model has been fairly consistent in the major features of the storm and to much surprise so far, fairly consistent in even some of the minor features over the plains. If you read last nights’ update you saw how the GFS run 24 hours ago jumped up in the snow amounts and had started a slight trend south. Well the snow amounts are still a ways up there, with tonights’ run actually going higher than any previous across central Iowa. The track of the storm now has came back to the north on tonights’ run, which gives me some not-so-great feelings on the exact track at this time. Although it is fairly close with no major shifts to the south/north, there is a very tight gradient with the snow amounts and the track will play a very important role in this.

If the models continue to show pretty good consistency, plus the addition of the NAM/WRF finally being able to forecast this event as it gets within 84 hours, I will likely issue the ‘first call’ forecast sometime tomorrow. This forecast will be fairly rough indication of where the light amounts of snow, no snow and some of the hot areas that could really see the white stuff pile up. You will likely hear most meteorologists indicate snow/water ratios with the 10:1, looking at some of the BUFKIT data some of the snow/water ratios will be at least 10:1 at the beginning of the storm with some 20:1 ratios not out of the question. Also using the BUFKIT soundings, these are a few of the very rough snowfall forecasts at this time (Once again, remember these are longer range forecasts and are not guaranteed to be correct nor even close to correct dependent on changes. I would still recommend taking these with a grain of salt at the moment.)

Sioux City, IA : 12-15 Inches
Cherokee, IA : 8-12 Inches
Mason City, IA: 15-18 Inches
Omaha, NE: 16-20 Inches
Carrol, IA: 16-20 Inches
Des Moines, IA: 14-17 Inches

Look for another update in the early afternoon followed by an evening update with the first forecast snowfall map for this storm! Definitely time to get prepared as this thing could be a rough one as of all the latest indications… Keep listening to your local media and especially NWS for the latest updates.