TWISTEX Update (June 4)

Status: Preparing for Departure Tomorrow, Deployment Wednesday
Location: Terril, IA

SPC has issued a MODERATE risk for Day 3 already, with the highest probabilities that are allowed. This risk area includes portions of SD/NE/MN/IA, with the mentioning of strong supercells. Not only will the large hail, damaging wind threat be significant, but the tornado threat is also very high per the latest model runs. SPC also indicates this with their text, indicating the potential for strong, long track tornadoes.
All models are in good agreement for the most part, all of them agreeing that the warm sector in which the moderate risk has been issued has significant severe potential. Instability is near extreme values, although slightly overdone by high forecasted dewpoints. Shear is also outstanding, wind fields are impressive with strong southwest flow at mid levels, southerly flow at lower levels and then great upper level support as well. All of this is leading to an event that may likely be one of the better ones of the year, other chasers are calling the setup, "Insane".

TWISTEX crew is preparing for deployment on Wednesday, although many of the crew members will already be on the move tomorrow afternoon. ISU students planning on Tuesday night meeting, to prepare for departure on Wednesday morning. Samaras & National Geographic members may leave tomorrow as well to get an early start on the trek to NE/SD. No target has been specified, beings a lot is still changing with timing, expecting a target area in southern SD between Mission, SD and Lake Andes, SD. Next Update Likely Tomorrow Morning/Early Afternoon...