June 8 TWISTEX Update

Status: On-The-Road
Location: Dubuque, IA ~ Ames, IA ~ Terril, IA

Severe weather risks are in the forecast through next Wednesday for the SPC, however the next couple of days risk aren't the most conducive for tornadoes. Sunday looks to have potential across central NE especially with the latest model runs, good shear/instability combination that may support some tornadic storms. Monday through Wednesday next week has our next trough coming onto the plains and would also likely be a good system for severe weather. This system is different from the last in that it is not as strong dynamically with the low pressure system, but is much slower and compared to how the last system turned out it is likely better. The risk translates across from the Dakotas/Nebraska on Monday to Dakotas/NE/KS and western MN/IA on Tuesday and finally a threat across much of IA/MN into MO on Wednesday. That compared to a western Dakotas threat one day, to Wisconsin threat the next! Overall feel that although we might get a tornadic supercell in the high plains on Saturday, the drive day down there today just doesn't seem warranted.

Indeed after meeting with the entire crew it just doesn't look good enough on Saturday for us to drive down to the high plains. Instead it looks as if we will hold off on operations until next Monday with the trough moving in. Sunday is still a possibility for deployment, but not likely. So as noted above in 'Location' we are headed back to Ames, IA and then I'll be back home by this evening. Drive totals once again noted below:

Total Miles: 245 Miles (1,664.33 Miles Total)
Total Road Time: 6 Hours, 15 Minutes