Severe Weather Likely in Iowa

Several rounds of severe thunderstorms may occur over the state the next 3 days. The first round will likely occur late tonight over mainly portions of western Iowa, although central Iowa is not completely excluded from this risk. Latest forecast models have a MCS (large cluster of thunderstorms) moving into the northwest part of Iowa after 3 am tonight. This cluster or line of thunderstorms may have the potential for damaging winds as well as large hail throughout the early morning hours as it moves through the state. Several questions with this system that are unknown at this time include how far this cluster will make it into Iowa while remaining severe and if it does continue eastward or southeastward through the state, it has the possibility of intensifying and becoming severe during the afternoon on Thursday as well in eastern Iowa.

Another round of thunderstorms then becomes possible during the afternoon Thursday in northern Iowa as we have a frontal boundary that is likely to be near the area. This combined with possible outflow boundaries from the late night MCS may allow for very strong thunderstorms to form. Any thunderstorms that do develop along the boundary during the evening hours will likely be capable of all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. Areas that are not affected by any isolated supercells during the evening hours will once again be put in a severe risk by another nighttime MCS. Once again coming out of SD/NE and moving eastward, the threat for damaging winds and large hail increases during the nighttime hours.

Lastly, areas of central and eastern Iowa have their shot at more severe weather on Friday when the system begins to move east. The threats at this point are questionable and currently do not look to be as severe as the previous days severe weather, however with the forecast currently for tomorrow still questionable, there is time for the threat on Friday to become larger.

Updates likely tonight and early tomorrow dependent on MCS movement and prospects of a storm chase...