June 11 TWISTEX Update

Status: Awaiting Next Deployment
Location: Terril, IA

Once again the forecast for tomorrow does not look so good, in fact as far as the tornado threat goes it is likely minimal. The severe threat for tomorrow is good, with the large hail and damaging winds into the nighttime hours being decent. But, with the shear values being low, especially near surface, this is not going to allow for a favorable environment for tornadoes. Thus, TWISTEX is likely to once again sit at home for a day to await better severe weather chances.

The Colorado crew has stated that they may head out for a local chase, mainly for large hail hopes. The Iowa State crew will see the chance for thunderstorms come into their area on Wednesday and the TWISTEX project is still undecided on the prospects for deployment for that risk in the plains. The threat is somewhat questionable, as directional shear does seem to be lacking over the Missouri Valley area where the best threat is likely to be. Instability is also in question as thunderstorms from Tuesday may be lingering and causing cloudcover debris. Both models currently seem to be indicating a continuing line of storms from Tuesday, lasting through the morning hours and redeveloping in the afternoon along the Missouri River. This would likely not feature a great tornado threat and thus not sure what to expect as far as possible deployment...

Either way it does look like I'll get into some thunderstorm, possible severe chances this week. The line moving in on Wednesday night will likely effect western Iowa by evening and move over the rest of the state overnight. Thursday looks to have the front stalled out in the area of western Iowa and thus expect continued thunderstorm chances for Thursday evening in western Iowa and across the rest of the state overnight. Friday may continue to hold chances in for isolated thunderstorms, however by this time it looks as if the front is pretty much dissolved.

Long range outlook for TWISTEX shows the next system to indicate possible deployment by the end of next weekend, or early next week. This system looks to have chances once again for the northern plains as a trough moves across the area. Details aren't going to be in place until late this week, but prospects after that system aren't looking good as a ridge or at least weaker zonal flow is forecasted for a majority of the June following. Hopefully that can change as there does not seem to be much confidence in the ensemble forecasts.

Next Update Likely Tomorrow by Noon