Afternoon Snow & Arctic Air

Snow showers worked their way across the state this afternoon and still are as we work our way towards the evening. Some areas of the state only saw snow flurries for an hour or two, while other areas have seen snow for most of the afternoon. Here in Ames, it has been snowing since around 11:30 AM and is still continuing as I type. The snow has been moderate at times, although light snow has been the main explanation for the most part. Only minor accumulations have been seen across the state and that is all that is expected throughout the rest of the evening as the snow tapers off for most of the state.

Following this shot of snow will be another small system for Thursday night into Friday. This system will once again bring small snow amounts just like this one did, although winds will be much higher and thus the risk of blowing snow is in the forecast. Along with the next system, the arctic air looks to follow with highs across the state going from lower 20s and upper teens tomorrow down to the single digits on Friday with only a few locations reaching double digit highs. The highs in the single digits are likely to continue through Tuesday next week, the coldest days are likely over the weekend where on Saturday the highs are currently forecasted to be in the single digits below zero in much of the state!! Lows during this time will be well below zero, with some areas in northern Iowa attempting to approach -20 for a low. These frigid temperatures combined with even the slightest winds will likely cause wind chills near the -30 mark or lower. This is a dangerous combination, with even minutes of exposure to those temperatures and frostbite can occur. Warm-up does look to happen by mid-week next week, I'm sure temperatures even near 20 will have most people thankful after this weekend!

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New Equipment!!

If you haven't noticed the new lists on the right featuring 'Equipment Owned', etc. this is the post to tell you about my new equipment! This weekend I went home to pick up my new camera, Canon Rebel XTi as well as the CF card and my two lenses that I currently own for the camera. The first lens is the usual kit lens which I got with the deal basically for nothing and the second one is my zoom lens from Sigma.

More details on the kit lens; 18-55mm with f/3.5-5.6 aperture. This lens I have used before while borrowing the XT from Iowa State, I wasn't greatly impressed, but I wasn't displeased and thus for now this lens will do for my portrait and wide angle shots of landscape.

The Sigma lens is something that I'm looking forward to using and getting used too. It's the latest from Sigma, the APO DG Macro lens that goes from 70-300mm and thus is a great range of zoom that I can use for various things. The aperture ratings on this lens go from f/4-5.6 and as noted in the name also has a macro feature on it. I haven't done anything with the macro feature to see how effective it is, but I doubt I will use it too often anyway and thus wasn't a huge influence on buying this lens. I tested this lens over the weekend at a wrestling tournament, I was pleased with several of the pictures that I had proper focus on. Others were quite close to having good focus, but while zooming at the 200mm level or greater the focus can be quite touchy, especially with such quick moving objects and so many of them. I hope to get a few of those images up later in the week along with some images of the ducks/geese that I plan on taking on Thursday.

That's all I really have for now, within the next months I will accumulate a tripod, a remote shutter as well as other accessories for the camera. Look for lots of new images from me as I continue to test out the camera and lenses. These pictures will hopefully be featured on my 'gallery' pages that I'm working on at the moment... Always busy updating things, I can never be happy with what I come up with, always thinking bigger and better!

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Weekend Storm #2 Totals

Most of the snow is working its' way out of the area, eastern as well as parts of northern Iowa may see some moderate snow before Noon still. Other parts of the states may see flurries for the most part, with not much more accumulation. Throughout the night the snow fell over the state, with very localized amounts being heaviest as banding of snow was once again the culprit for the high snow amounts. This is easily noticeable while looking at the latest COOP snowfall maps, streaks of 6-8 inch amounts next to some of the lighter amounts.

Expect temperatures in the mid 20s on average and lows anywhere from the single digits to mid-teens dependent on cloud cover overnight. Thus, the lower temperatures for lows seem to be forecast on Monday night as well as Wednesday night for the beginning of this week. The next system looks to come into the state on Tuesday night/Wednesday, but currently is not expected to be too strong. Winter has seemingly made its' way into the area finally and should stay for quite a while, at least the frigid arctic air is not in place at this time.

Here is the snowfall depth currently over hour, updated daily:

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Weekend Storm #2

6 PM Update: Off-hour model runs' this afternoon showed an increasing potential for significant snow across portions of central Iowa, with some areas potentially seeing greater than the 6 inches that were mentioned in the previous Snow Advisories. This has prompted the NWS out of Des Moines to issue a Heavy Snow Warning for areas of south-central Iowa. You can read the latest text on that by clicking the previous link. A new post will be made early tomorrow as the snow truly begins to pile up, otherwise you can read this mornings' thoughts below as well.

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Last weekend saw much of the state blanketed in snow with localized amounts of 7-8 inches of snow. This weekend another system taking a similar path is taking aim at the state and although not as strong, will still provide the state with a good 3-6 inches of snow. This time around however, the wind is not expected to be as strong and thus blowing snow won't be as bad of a problem. Most of the state besides the northeast corner has been put under a Snow Advisory from tonight into tomorrow, NWS Snow Advisories Text.

As for the models, this mornings' updates the NAM/WRF shows a solid 3-6 inches over the entire state which is right online with the thoughts of forecasters. Best amounts are in southwest and most of central Iowa for that output. As for the GFS, fairly close as well, but the highest snowfall amounts are further east covering most of eastern/central Iowa instead. Either way the snow looks to accumulate nicely overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning with the totals being 3-6 inches throughout the state. Another update likely tomorrow with the final snow totals from around the state...

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Welcome to the Iowa Chaser Blog!!

For the last several months you have been able to read my blog on the StormCenterUSA website, under the title of 'Storm Chasing & Iowa Weather'. Well with my redesign of the website as a whole to the new name 'Iowa Chaser' I have also decided to create a new blog setup. The new setup is geared towards complete updates on the weather as well as any of my other hobbies/interests. I hope to add quite a few updates when I add photos to my website or when I get new equipment, etc. Currently I am simply working on importing all of my previous blogposts onto this new blog.

There may be some slight color changes, depending on any opinions that I get from people on whether or not it is suitable to the eyes. I will be adding more and more links to other blogs that I like to frequent on the right side of the page. The old blog will be taken down as soon as all of my entries are copied over from there to here, hopefully by the end of this weekend if not tonight. Until then...

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New Website Design!

I have finally finished the new website design and today I finally have redirected all the previous pages and put the new website ‘online’ so to say. The new website goes under the name, ‘Iowa Chaser’ which was sparked by my new license plate that I received as a gift from my girlfriend. I hope you enjoy the new site and comments are welcomed…

http://www.stormcenterusa.com/iowachaser.html

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Weekend Snowstorm (Final Report)

This will begin the ‘LIVE’ updates on snowfall over the area, currently I’m in northwest Iowa (Terril) and the snow began just over an hour ago. Accumulations have been fairly light, although a 1/2 inch of snow in the past hour with mainly flurries is kind of impressive. Snow Advisories have been posted for all of the Sioux Falls CWA, while areas within the Des Moines CWA have been posted under a Snow & Blowing Snow Advisory. Both of those last this afternoon through the early morning hours or tomorrow when winds will begin to pick up after the snow has stopped.

So, as of 2 PM:

16 degrees
Light snow
Winds: Light to 5 mph
Total Accumulations: 1/2 Inch (1/2 Past Hour)

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3:30 PM Update:

Winter Storm Warning Issued for portions of Northern Iowa. Details Here

Light Snow
16 Degrees
Northerly Wind 0-8 mph
Visibility: 1/2 Mile
Total Accumulations: 1 3/4 Inches (3/4 Inch an Hour Average)

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4:30 PM Update:

Light Snow
15 Degrees
Northerly Winds 0-10 mph
Visibility: 1 Mile
Total Accumulations: 2 Inches

Dry pocket of air seemingly is decreasing some of the snowfall in portions of the area, looks as though light snow if that over the next hour or so here. More snow is beginning to fill in over NE and expect this to continue into the night where most of the snow will fall later tonight… Next update will likely not be until 8 PM or so as I’m heading out away from computer.

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FINAL UPDATE:

Areas across northwest Iowa varied in snow totals dependent on the location of the snowbands that setup across much of the state giving localized higher amounts in some areas. 6 Inches of snow is the final measurement that was made on Monday morning and will be the storm total amount in Terril, Iowa. The winds did not increase as much as anticipated and thus the blowing snow wasn’t as bad as forecasted. Still roadways were somewhat of a hassle to travel on early on Monday and even into the day on Tuesday some roads were snowpacked and slippery in the cities. This system still left the area with a good snow that finally has stuck around for a while, this also gave some areas of Iowa their first significant snow of the season.
Behind this snow came the arctic air however, with lows on Tuesday morning dropping well below zero across Iowa, Nebraska and several other states. The lowest report in Iowa was -24 degree in LeMars, with several other areas in northwest Iowa in the high teens below zero to other 20-some degree marks in the red. Temperature are slowly warming in response to south winds, however even in the south temperatures are near or below freezing and thus no major warmup is expected.

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Weekend Snowstorm (Update #4)

A short and quick update for the northern plains as the snow is beginning in some areas with the first light wave of precipitation. Other small bands of snow will occur tonight and into early tomorrow with only light accumulation expected. The heavier snows should begin Sunday afternoon into the night for areas of Iowa, however areas of KS/NE may see heavier snow during the morning on Sunday and areas towards Chicago will likely see the heavier snows Sunday night into Monday. Also of significance with this storm is going to be ice accumulations that are occurring in KS/MO and into portions of IL today and into tomorrow.

Total snow accumulations as you can see on the latest map are fairly close to the previous forecast although total amounts are slightly down. Areas within the heaviest amounts will likely see 3-6 inches of snow, with some localized amounts up to 8 inches possible depending on the location of heavy snow bands. Map link is below:

January 13-15 Winter Storm — January 13 1600 Forecast

Next update will likely come later on Sunday, likely early afternoon for the final update on potential snow amounts. Until then…

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Weekend Snowstorm (Update #3)

Forecast #1 - January 13-15 Snowstorm

The first official forecast that I’m going to make on this storm is still a pretty darn hard one to make, the trend of the models is currently a slightly weaker storm with a further south track. The latest model runs tonight from the NAM/WRF and GFS aren’t in the greatest agreement, with the NAM actually stronger with the system as shown in the snow amounts as well as the 500mb charts. The NAM/WRF has a deeper trough compared to the GFS, but to keep in mind that previous forecasts in the beginning of the week had the low at 500 a closed one. The opening up of this system is going to allow it to most likely move slightly faster and be weaker and could actually account for part of the further south track of the low.

The first forecast map will have to be viewed in another tab if you can and read this along the side, hard to get images to fit correctly into a blog page.

Forecast Map #1 — January 13-15 Snowfall

Nonetheless, the first forecast is a broad map with so many minor changes that could take place over the next 48 hours of models. I pushed the lower snow amounts slightly outside of the models forecasts to compensate for any minor changes that may occur in the track. There should be a fairly tight gradient with the snows, even tighter potentially then I have portrayed on the map. The area within the 6-12 inch range is a broad region, the potential is there for a widespread band of heavy snow amounts across portions of IA/MO as well as IL/KS/NE… Any of the snowfall that does occur could be hazardous due to the high winds expected with this system, blowing and drifting snow with even 3-6 inches could cause some problems. I hope that the map can be better defined by tomorrow nights’ update, currently the forecast just isn’t defined enough to really go out on the limb and do a definite forecast at this time.

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Weekend Snowstorm (Update #2)

The GFS model has been fairly consistent in the major features of the storm and to much surprise so far, fairly consistent in even some of the minor features over the plains. If you read last nights’ update you saw how the GFS run 24 hours ago jumped up in the snow amounts and had started a slight trend south. Well the snow amounts are still a ways up there, with tonights’ run actually going higher than any previous across central Iowa. The track of the storm now has came back to the north on tonights’ run, which gives me some not-so-great feelings on the exact track at this time. Although it is fairly close with no major shifts to the south/north, there is a very tight gradient with the snow amounts and the track will play a very important role in this.

If the models continue to show pretty good consistency, plus the addition of the NAM/WRF finally being able to forecast this event as it gets within 84 hours, I will likely issue the ‘first call’ forecast sometime tomorrow. This forecast will be fairly rough indication of where the light amounts of snow, no snow and some of the hot areas that could really see the white stuff pile up. You will likely hear most meteorologists indicate snow/water ratios with the 10:1, looking at some of the BUFKIT data some of the snow/water ratios will be at least 10:1 at the beginning of the storm with some 20:1 ratios not out of the question. Also using the BUFKIT soundings, these are a few of the very rough snowfall forecasts at this time (Once again, remember these are longer range forecasts and are not guaranteed to be correct nor even close to correct dependent on changes. I would still recommend taking these with a grain of salt at the moment.)

Sioux City, IA : 12-15 Inches
Cherokee, IA : 8-12 Inches
Mason City, IA: 15-18 Inches
Omaha, NE: 16-20 Inches
Carrol, IA: 16-20 Inches
Des Moines, IA: 14-17 Inches

Look for another update in the early afternoon followed by an evening update with the first forecast snowfall map for this storm! Definitely time to get prepared as this thing could be a rough one as of all the latest indications… Keep listening to your local media and especially NWS for the latest updates.

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