More Thunderstorms...

Well early this morning brought two MCS’s through the central part of Iowa, creating two severe thunderstorm watches and several warnings as large hail and especially damaging winds went through the state. I of course, while this MCS was going about an hour or two south of me, was soundly sleeping, only heard thunder once all night last night. Looking at the reports from last night, only wind reports were received, mainly in the 60-70 mph range. Heavy rainfall was also an issue and with continued chances of thunderstorm, will remain an issue with flash flooding in some areas of the state.

As for the title, More Thunderstorms… Today, some tomorrow possible and then even more as we get into the weekend and early next week! Tonight it seems possible for another MCS to scrape at least the western edge of the state as it dives out of the Dakotas and into the Missouri River Valley. Tomorrow will most likely bring a few thunderstorms, mainly garden variety into the area, nothing in the way of severe weather expected. By Saturday, a nighttime MCS seems like a possibility again as it comes out of the Dakotas and into MN/IA, again the western portion of the state seems more likely at a risk. Sunday the risk will most likely include much of the state, possibility of afternoon thunderstorms as another cold front comes across the plains with the development of MCS’s into the evening hours. Sioux Falls NWS has already included in 50% thunderstorm chances for northwest Iowa on Sunday, and Thunderstorms Likely by Sunday night as the system moves through. So, maybe another chase day? We’ll have to see, luckily the past two times the opportunity has presented itself, I’ve passed up on the main target area and it has proven to be a good thing. Maybe things will change...

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Today's A Chase Day???

Well once again a good looking chase day has went sour, as the SPC has slowly lowered the risks for the favored area through the day in their outlooks. Started out with a 5% tornado risk and hopes of higher, then to a widespread 5%, then to a 2% due to only a few being possible in the isolated cells during first formation and now a 2% simply becuase the threat isn’t that high. Sad day to waste all of the great parameters once again, just like the past who knows how many chases. There has been some storms today, but so far fairly far west of what the original target was going to be. Not sure if anybody got on the storms, but if they did I’m sure it’s going to be better then what others saw waiting for something in eastern NE/western IA.

As for the thunderstorms, they should increase in activity tonight once again with an influence from the low level jet, once that kicks in and gives the atmosphere the surface influence that it needs they should fire quick. Given such high instability today, there should be plenty left over early tonight, with shear values still high could definately see some severe weather overnight tonight in areas with MCS development. So the rain definately isn’t out of the question, but the great chase seems to be. Beings this was the case this afternoon, I’ve vowed myself to going after lightning tonight. Meaning that I will drive to get in a good location for the lightning strikes tonight in hopes of catching something great for once…

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Possible Chase Tomorrow...

Well as I stated before about the risk of severe weather making its’ way into the forecast once again, it has and has done so in quite a big way. Despite a warm front being forecasted south of northwest Iowa, north of the front is going to be the best area for severe weather tomorrow. With instability in the extreme category and shear definately supercellular, looks to be another chase day on the northern plains. Although there are still several things that need to be worked out, such as the overnight convection and what cloud debris it could leave for tomorrow and where exactly that warm front will setup at.

Currently with all of the questions, I’m not going to put too much of a forecast into this. I will likely do more of a forecast late tonight once I get a look at the models from tonight and the new Day 1 Outlook from the SPC. Would like to see them go with a 30/30/5 risk, of hail/wind/tornado respectively, especially if we can get the wind/hail hatched and be on the verge of the MOD risk once again. This time, local offices and other chasers as well as models do not seem to have the cap as too much of a concern, but time will tell on that one. All for now, look for another full chase forecast update in around 4 hours or so…

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Iowa State vs UNLV GameDay Forecast & Game Notes

In what will be a ritual for the rest of the football season, here is my ‘official’ forecast for the Iowa State vs UNLV football game that is set to kick off just after 6 PM tomorrow night! But first, the Game Notes:

Iowa State (1-0) comes off of a tough earned win against Toledo last Thursday. In what many fans know, the defense allowed nearly 400 yards of passing offense as they simply could not stop them from reaching the endzone. But, ISU gained the win by finally opening up the offense, Meyer to Blythe was the key. Two huge pass/catch combinations between them was what got it won. UNLV (1-0) is coming off of a routing of Idaho State, in which the final score was 54-10. The lack of defense from Idaho State allowed UNLV to open up the run game, something that they normally wouldn’t do. Having 4 rushing touchdowns with 3 different rushers, while only having 1 passing touchdown during the game. This could be different in the Iowa State game, where the rushing defense could be decent, but the pass defense is put to the test as UNLVs’ base offense set is a shotgun spread. Current spread: ISU by 13.5

Forecast: Most of the day should remain cloudy, with only slight peaks at the sun at most throughout the day. This will only allow temperatures to rise up to the 70 degree mark, with a kickoff temperature of 68. With those clouds may come the increasing threat of rain, early forecasts during the mid-week period had chances of rain around 50/50, but latest forecasts have this chance down to 40%. A warm front is expected to remain south of Ames for most of the day, near the IA/MO border keeping most of the best chances south. But, another weather system coming in from the west will be the key factor in moving precip into the area. Latest forecast models have indicated that this system is slowing and thus may hold off reaching the area until Saturday night or later… But, stray showers cannot be ruled out with strong cloudcover, but for now heavy rains do not seem likely. As for the wind, ENE during the day at 5-15 mph switching off to mainly east by game time at just slightly slower speeds. So for the summary… Kickoff: 68 with Cloudy skies, occasional showers possible (especially late game), temperatures falling to the lower 60s by game end. Winds E - ENE at 5-12 mph.

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Warmup & Thunderstorms… New Website Look

Well after one strong cold front has made its’ way through the area, we are looking at warming temperatures once again as we go into the week. Currently NWS forecasts are running on the low side by the looks of things, having highs only reaching the mid 80s on Wed/Fri for the highest of the week. Unlike the local met’s as well as the latest long range GFS MOS data. Both of those indicating that temperatures by mid-week should be near 90, I’m willing to split the differences going with forecasts in the range of 86-88 degrees this week. With an increased temperature, also comes increased dewpoints with southerly flow coming onto the plains. This should lead to chances of thunderstorms over the area, which definately looks to be the case with chances starting tomorrow and especially on Wed. night/Thursday. Most likely we will be looking at overnight systems coming in, as afternoon thunderstorms aren’t looking likely with such strong capping in shape over the area. So, look for highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s across Iowa this week, with thunderstorm chances Tuesday night, Wed and Thur. Lows in the lower 60s to lower 70s this week as well across the state, with rainfall amounts quite varied dependent on location of thunderstorms, etc.

As for the site update, website is receiving a new update once again. Several pages have been given the ‘new look’ and a whole new title image should be coming within the next week or two to give it a complete look. Hopefully this will be the look that will stay on the site for some time. The photo pages as well as the chase account pages, as well as the store page are not going to be complete for sometime due to the high amount of work that has to be done on those pages. Keep checking back for more updates and be sure to keep checking out the site for the new look and additions!!

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Yesterday’s ‘Chase’ & New Homepage!

Well the Moderate risk was issued for yesterday and parameters were decent as far as falling into place in the right areas, but once again mother nature decided to screw the chasers over yesterday and only give us two tornado warned storms, with only one of them producing an actual tornado. And of course, that storm was located right on the US/Canada border in a very unfriendly environment for as much as I know. Otherwise several other severe thunderstorms were able to develop in areas of SD/NE, but nothing spectacular came of them in LSR’s or in chase reports as most people had drove clear into northern MN to find themselves on a dissapointing long drive back home. As for me, I wasn’t going to play the northern MN threat, instead watching the areas of southwest MN/northwest IA as parameters were in place just like models have ’sort of’ predicted. But, capping was much stronger than they had predicted and without an outflow boundary or the great lifting support that was expected out ahead of the cold front nothing was produced. So, in turn I had never even left my house yesterday afternoon, just watching and waiting, with a couple of short naps for something to happen…

In other, better news, I have started the redesigning of my webpage! The homepage has the whole new look to it now, as stated in previous topics on how the previous sitebuilder with our previous host was able to pretty much ruin the entire pages on the StormCenterUSA site thanks to its’ encoding. I’ve started up a new design with a new sitebuilder that will be able to be used no matter what host StormCenterUSA is under… So, look for a new look to my pages once again as I take on the title of ‘Storm Chasing & Iowa Weather’!

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August 5th Stormchase

Well the forecast is on and so will the chase come tomorrow afternoon, conditions are looking quite favorable for severe weather over much of the northern plains. The latest outlook from the SPC indicates that the best area could be over anywhere in MN, with a very large tornado risk area to go along with significant threats of hail/wind. A ‘MODERATE’ risk was issued on this outlook and should continue throughout the remaining outlooks over the area, although I still believe that even just south of the current ‘MOD’ risk will eventually be included if the parameters come together as forecasted.

With tonights model runs of the NAM & GFS sticking to their previous forecasts of parameters, I very much like an area of southwest MN/northwest IA for tomorrow over the northern MN chase. Not sure what the issues may be and will of course have to watch thing evolve tomorrow, but both of the models are putting very favorable parameters over this area. Looking at a chase area from Granite Falls/Marshall, MN down to the Spencer, IA area for chasing tomorrow. Hopefully another post in the morning on final decisions, etc… For complete up to date and detailed discussions, please register and read the posts at StormCenterUSA Forums!

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Storm Chasing (August 1/Tomorrow)

Well I finished up getting the photos from August 1st up, the pano didn’t turn out great once again thanks to my camera being a little crazy and not being completely manual for me. But, you still get the basic idea of it… The other picture is as the shelf was overtaking us (Alyssa and I), it was Alyssa’s first successful chase with me as the other time we went last year we busted. Here are the two pictures:

http://www.stormcenterusa.com/images/Aug1ShelfPano.jpg

http://www.stormcenterusa.com/images/DSC04996.jpg

Next storm chasing chance looks to come tomorrow already, with a good chance at that. Most likely a Moderate risk by the SPC for areas of MN, Dakotas and possibly even IA/NE. Good instability and shear in place should allow for the risk to include supercells with potential of large hail/damaging winds and tornadoes over the area. Still a lot of things up in the air with the risk, but I’m liking an area of southwest MN/northwest IA for chasing tomorrow, possibly will have to drift over into SD depending on timing and initiation. Either way, I’ll put out another update late tonight and/or tomorrow morning about the final plan.

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August 1 Storm Chase - Website Issues…

Well August started off to be a very nice month, with severe weather pounding the area with mainly high winds and heavy rains. Nonetheless a fairly good shelf cloud rolled through the area once again bringing with it some hefty winds with the first round of storms. This was the only part of the chase really, as darkness was quickly closing in as the other rounds of thunderstorms were as well. The second round came through just after 9:30 PM, bringing more high winds and very heavy rain. Also with it was one of the better lightning shows in a long time, I captured a good 2:30 minute video of the lightning and tremendous thunder that you can view here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krJ2GIxkVdg

Heavy rains with the continuous storms did bring flash flood warnings over much of the area in north central Iowa with rainfall amounts from 4-10 inches!! Reports in a couple of bigger cities had water at least 2 ft high as it was rushing through the streets and one major highway near Algona, IA was shut down as high water rose above it.

Besides those storms, the website issues continue. Essentially the website will have to be redone in order for it to work properly and be updated on a timely basis. So you can expect a new website for my homepage within the next couple of weeks hopefully. Also during this time, do not expect StormCenterUSA’s pages to be updated, althouth all images will update automatically thus any of those will be viewed in timely fashion. Otherwise, that is all for now…

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August 1 Weather - Website Problems

Well had a decent shot at severe weather according to the SPC outlooks yesterday and even with a few lingering showers/thunderstorms this morning I figured it would clear out and be set for an afternoon round. Well the clouds and showers are still here and its’ past noon so once again a waste of a day… Doesn’t look like anything significant is going to happen, or even a severe storm will occur if things don’t get together sometime this afternoon. Another thing to notice is that the SPC is using Offutt AFB to issue their statements, not sure what the problem is there, but its’ just another thing that is apparently going wrong today! I’ll be waiting either way ready to go if something can happen, but I just don’t see it being to great of a day to head out anywhere. Just go about the daily life and see what happens…

As for the Website, pages on the ‘06 Accounts and the ‘06 Photos seem to be having problems with the links. I’ll be working on those pages, trying to get them back into working order today. Been a hard turnaround for a new host given some of the problems that we’ve had just personally setting things up… Taking up a lot of time and really pestering me when something goes wrong that really shouldn’t…

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