Cold Core Low Severe Weather

A low pressure system and cold front is currently over areas just to the west of the state. Some thunderstorms moving through the state this morning, with thunder included will keep the temperatures down and the sun away. A lot of questions in the forecast for the state on how this system will evolve and how much of a severe risk we will see. Latest discussions have a threat of severe weather during the afternoon/evening hours, beginning with a possible isolated storms capable of a tornado or two will then evolve into a broken line of severe thunderstorms along the cold front by later this afternoon. When that occurs I would expect the severe risk to come down to mainly a wind and a few large hail events...

More updates possible later this afternoon...

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Severe Weather & Chase Possibilities

Well this weekend is winding up to of interest to many chasers across the plains states and it may end up affecting portions of Iowa on Sunday. I'll see what I can do to keep this up to date over my busy weekend, for now here is a copy of what I posted on the StormCenterUSA Forums:

This weekend may have a nice event in store for areas of the plains states. A strong shortwave looks to dig down into the plains after coming off the Rockies during the afternoon on Saturday. Previously the GFS and ECMWF were quite inconsistent with the placement of the wave, last nights' runs however do look like they have begun on a better agreement.

Saturday looks to hold potential for mainly areas of the high plains, with that threat possibly being late night when the low begins to form over some portion of the western plains. Both the WRF & the GFS have the shortwave centered in Utah at 00z (Saturday evening); only difference is how far south with the GFS approx. 100 miles further to the south. The ECMWF has the system as far south as the GFS does while still having it slightly slower; estimated 3 hours slower. The shortwave therefore doesn't eject out out of the Rockies until sometime in the middle of the night. This is likely going to put a damper on the severe weather threat if the system does indeed come out slower and poses more of a nighttime MCS event...

Sunday may turn out to be a more interesting day, at least dynamically, with the wave over the plains during peak hours of severe activity. The GFS puts the prime location (east portion of wave) over areas of MN/IA, eastern NE/KS as well as MO. The ECMWF on the other hand continues to be slower with the progression as well as further south; putting its' prime areas over central/eastern NE, western IA, KS & possibly OK. Overall Sunday still seems like it is up in the air, which is also why the SPC has left it out of the outlook for the extended given the uncertainties in models.

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Slow Warming to Bring Thunderstorms

You'll see us slowly warming throughout the next several days as southerly winds pick up and bring more moisture to the area. This moisture will aid in the development of thunderstorms ahead of the next system that is likely to come onto the plains states by this weekend. Although models have been struggling with consistency, it does seem that some location on the plains will be under a severe risk for this weekend. Current forecasts put this risk just to the west of the state on Saturday, with Sunday's possibilities still undetermined. More information in the forecast below...

A few showers have been working across the state this evening in response to energy moving just north of the state. Expect very sporadic areas to receive any precipitation from these showers, lows overnight should range in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow will have another day full of sun and temperatures warming a few degrees compared to today. Highs in the lower 70s for the northern third of the state, mid 70s for a majority of the remainder, a few upper 70s marks may be seen as well over southeast Iowa. Lows won't show much in the way of returning moisture on Thursday night, dropping down into the 40s across the state.

Friday will show the affects of the system moving into the plains as winds pick up and the moisture is on the rise. Highs during the day will continue to heat up, lower 80s over western Iowa to the lower 70s still over eastern Iowa where they will remain out of the return flow. Lows during the overnight will be highly variable as some clouds and possible a few showers/thunderstorms may work into western Iowa. Where clouds move in, lows may only drop into the lower 60s while the areas of the state who don't see the cloud cover will likely drop further into the mid 50s range.

With the weekend comes the rain, showers & thunderstorms possible over the western half of the state Saturday and Saturday night. The precip is likely to overtake the remainder of the state by midday Sunday, but hopefully also making a quick exit by the beginning of the work week. Temperatures over the weekend will be highly variable, depending upon the location of rain & clouds as well as the position of the front over the state. Highs on Saturday should range from the upper 70s to lower 80s; Sundays' highs in the lower to mid 70s for the most part. Although if the front has pushed through some areas, the highs may only reach into the mid to upper 60s. Lows on Saturday in the 50s, lowest in the northwest and highest in the southeast. Sunday night lows will be cooler behind the front, mid 40s to near 50 once again ranging from northwest to southeast.

More details on the thunderstorm possibilities may be available if severe weather chances do pan out over the state sometime during the weekend...

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Stormy Beginning

The beginning of the work week will have the state under cloudy and rainy conditions as a system from the west brings in a cold front and the remnants of a tropical system work into the area from the south as well. The potential is going to be there for some isolated severe weather as conditions will be favorable with warm and moist conditions over the state; however with such moist air with the tropical system the severe threat will actually be limited. Thanks to the widespread showers and thunderstorms even before peak heating, instability will likely be lacking to sustain severe weather. Expect the rain to move in Monday morning over western Iowa and be out of the state by Tuesday afternoon as it exits the southeast portion of the state.

Lows tonight will show that increasing moisture well, with the range of temperatures beginning in the lower 60s over northeast Iowa while the remainder of the state will see mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Highs on Monday reflect the cold front moving across the state, mid 80s possible in southeast Iowa to only lower 70s in northwest Iowa where showers and clouds will be over the area from sunrise throughout the day. Lows overnight from the lower 50s in northwest Iowa to the mid 60s in southeast Iowa where cloud cover and rain will continue as mentioned above.

When the rain moves out, we'll be left with cooler air over the state along with much drier conditions as the moisture moves out with the cold front. Tuesday's highs in the upper 60s in northwest Iowa to the mid 70s in southeast Iowa. Lows in the mid to upper 40s throughout the state during the overnight hours. Wednesday will have a slight rebound of the temperatures, lower 70s to mid 70s from the northeast to southwest for highs. Lows overnight will hover around the 50 degree mark for the entire state. The end of the week will finish without much warm-up as highs range from the low to upper 70s across the state. Lows around 50 once again on Thursday night, some moisture return will allow the lows to only drop down into the low to mid 50s on Friday night just before another storm system looks to aim at the state.

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Friday Thunderstorms

5:50 PM Update: The line of thunderstorms has continued to strengthen, now featuring several warnings out ahead of the line for damaging winds. Mainly an area from Independence, IA to Knoxville, IA is currently severe with the storms moving off to the east at 35-45 mph. Expect the storms to continue to move east through the evening hours, likely moving through the state by midnight tonight and leaving fairly clear skies behind it.

4:00 PM Update: The SPC has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #680 for portions of central & eastern Iowa. Thunderstorms have developed along the cold front from Cresco, IA to Sidney, IA and are beginning to fill in between. Essentially a continuous line of thunderstorms is expected to move across the state during the next several hours. These storms will likely individually move northeast, while the line moves eastward; creating the risk for heavy rains with storms training over one another. The main severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds, although a few isolated large hail reports are possible. Again, severe thunderstorm watch #680 issued until 11 PM for areas of central and eastern Iowa.

8:20 AM Update: Well after the update was posted yesterday, I watched as all of the precipitation chances throughout the state slowly rose up into the likely category. Now that the morning has arrived and the features of the system are in better shape with clear skies throughout Iowa and places northward the SPC has put a majority of the state under a slight risk for severe weather. Strong winds will push moisture northward throughout the day and temperatures will also rise well into the 80s across the state. This though may not be enough to break a cap we have over the area by warm temperatures that are also slightly aloft in the atmosphere. It seems as if the only way to get thunderstorms today will be right along or just behind the cold front as it moves through the state this afternoon/evening. With storms firing along the front, we'd likely see more linear storms or line segments. This will likely push our threat for tornadoes out the window, with a few isolated hail reports possible. Main threat however is likely to be the damaging winds that will move with these storms; currently the SPC has labeled an increase threat of damaging winds over northeast Iowa where some of the better dynamics are noted thanks to the low pressure system being just to the north in MN/WI.

More updates are likely later in the day...

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Heading Into a Wonderful Weekend...

A few chances of showers/thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend, but nothing that is likely to 'rain out' an event that is planned or damper the spirits of too many. Sunny skies should prevail during the afternoons, warm temperatures and mild nights should be close to a great weekend forecast.

Highs' today should be in the upper 70s in the northeast, to mid 80s throughout western Iowa. A system will be working into the northern plains, thus some areas have been put under slight chances of a thunderstorm late this afternoon. Lows tonight should range from 63-68 degrees; warmest in the west and cooler in the northeast. Finishing off the work week we will have a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon hours as a system passes with most of the energy to the north of the state. A few showers/thunderstorms and some cloudy skies may move through portions of the state through the day. Highs will be quite warm however, with mid 80s to lower 90s possible from northwest to southeast. Lows during the night ranging from near 50 in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast.

We start off the weekend with warm temperatures in the low to mid 80s throughout the state and clear skies. The clear skies continue into the night with lows ranging from the upper 50s in northeast Iowa to mid 60s in western Iowa. Sunday warms up even more as southerly winds bring in warm air and more moisture to the state. Highs in the lower 80s to upper 80s; mainly from north to south. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s as dewpoints should also be within that range. By Sunday night expect thunderstorms over the Dakotas and Nebraska; meaning that early morning storms on Monday are a possibility and the likelihood of developing storms on Monday afternoon seems fairly good at this time as well... For now, enjoy the final days of the work week and get out to enjoy the weekend!

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Sept. 18 Severe Weather

Although no watches were issued tonight there have been several damaging wind reports within two lines of thunderstorms that developed in the state. The first line developed in areas of eastern Iowa and moved to the northeast, leaving a trail of reports from Poweshiek county through the northeast corner of the state. Reports range from the minimum severe level of 60 mph up to a 79 mph wind reports; those storms currently have moved out of the state.

A second line of storms developed along the cold front in western Iowa and eastern Nebraska this afternoon and have since gained strength and organization. A portion of this line has been able to maintain severe levels from it entering the state in Harrison county and current severe warnings for Story & Polk counties. These storms do however show signs of weakening as instability is on the decrease and it is entering an area where storms have already been through. Expect mainly heavy rains and some frequent lightning, along with gusty winds up to 40-50 mph with the strongest portion of the storms. They should hold together to make it through a majority of the state overnight, expect clearing by sunrise as far as showers go. Some cloud cover may be maintained in eastern Iowa, but cleared by Noon.

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Early Week Severe Weather

As mentioned in the previous discussion, the thunderstorms possibilities were likely and there was also a the chance of a few of those storms being severe over western Iowa tonight. The SPC has agreed and confirmed the forecast, issuing Severe Thunderstorm Watch #671 for portions of northwest Iowa until 1:00 AM. Thunderstorms likely to erupt within the next hour or two along a boundary that is positioned through central MN and into extreme eastern SD. These thunderstorms will likely congeal into several line segments as they move to the east/northeast. Likely threats would be damaging winds, a few large hail reports also cannot be ruled out tonight. More updates possible later tonight if storms do indeed threaten northwest Iowa...


More severe weather is possible tomorrow as this system slowly works east. The threat tomorrow will cover a majority of the state, currently only leaving out extreme northwest & southeast Iowa. The threat once again will mainly be for damaging winds, a few large hail reports and the potential for some heavy rains over the state. Convective debris (left over storms & clouds) from tonights' storms could hamper the severe threat tomorrow if it hangs over the state. However if things are able to clear and allow full heating, thus ample instability able to break the cap earlier than tonight the possibility of severe storms may be better. More information on Tuesdays' severe weather will likely come out as the system evolves overnight and the amount of instability & capping become known.

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Warm Air & Thunderstorms

A brief and yet strong cold shot hit the state late last week, allowing for record setting low temperatures early Saturday morning before the big interstate rivalry between Iowa and Iowa State in college football. Needless to say, I have to get the score in there as Iowa State defeated the heavily favored Iowa Hawkeyes by a final of 15-13. All of the points were scored by the ISU kicker Culbertson; 5 for 6 on the day.

With the new week comes new weather, warmer air has made its' way in already providing for a very nice Sunday afternoon with sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will not be nearly as cold as previous, dropping only into the lower 60s for a majority of the state. Northeast Iowa is the outlier tonight with lows in the upper 50s. High temperatures tomorrow will rise into the 80s throughout the state with southerly winds and clear skies. By the late afternoon hours however some clouds and thunderstorms will begin to move into northwest Iowa. These thunderstorms will likely spread over the remainder of western and north-central Iowa during the overnight hours. Lows on Monday night in the lower to mid 60s with the moisture really making a comeback into the state.

Back to the thunderstorm chances, the SPC has issued a slight risk for portions of northwest Iowa as the thunderstorms over the area will have potential to become severe. Current indications are that development over southwest MN, southeast SD and into NE will occur in the afternoon hours. Moving into Iowa over the evening and overnight with the potential for wind damage and a few isolated severe hail stones. The thunderstorm threat only moves slightly south and east for Tuesday, encompassing much of the western & central thirds of the state. Exact threats with Tuesdays' storms will be explained in tomorrows' updates.

Tuesday highs will range from mid 70s in northwest Iowa to mid 80s over southeast Iowa. Lows from the mid 60s ahead of the front, down to the mid 50s in extreme northwest Iowa where the front may have likely passed by nightfall. Once again expect those thunderstorms chances over much of the state by Tuesday night as a cool front continues to move through. Wednesday highs still seasonable, ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s from northwest to southeast. Lows in the upper 50s in the northern two-thirds; low 60s in the southern third.

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Iowa State vs Iowa -- Saturday Football Forecast

The Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes square off in another one of the interstate rival matchups tomorrow, Saturday September 15th in Ames, IA. Iowa State is off to a terrible start, losing their first two games to Kent State & Northern Iowa while Iowa is off to a nice start winning in their two matchups against Northern Illinois & Syracuse. Nearly 70,000 will make their way into and around Jack Trice stadium tomorrow and to help all of them out, here is what they can expect in terms of weather.

Iowa State vs Iowa Football Weather Forecast (Ames, IA)

9 AM Forecast: Tailgating beings with temperatures in the lower 40s and southerly winds 5-10 mph; allowing some wind chills to drop into the 30s, however skies should be clear allowing the full strength of the sun to warm you up if you can stay out of the wind.

Noon Forecast: Just before kickoff and by kickoff time we should have the weather near perfect with temperatures in the mid 50s & winds south at 5-15 mph; clouds once again staying out of sight.

Halftime Forecast: The temperature should be near 60 by the time the teams take to the locker rooms for the half, winds increasing slightly out of the south 10-20 mph and a few clouds may be seen in the skies.

Celebration of ISU Victory: Okay, well the celebration of whoever comes out on top should be held with great weather. Temperature in the lower 60s & partly cloudy skies will be perfect to finish off a great day of football...

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