Friday, September 21, 2007

Friday Thunderstorms

5:50 PM Update: The line of thunderstorms has continued to strengthen, now featuring several warnings out ahead of the line for damaging winds. Mainly an area from Independence, IA to Knoxville, IA is currently severe with the storms moving off to the east at 35-45 mph. Expect the storms to continue to move east through the evening hours, likely moving through the state by midnight tonight and leaving fairly clear skies behind it.

4:00 PM Update: The SPC has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #680 for portions of central & eastern Iowa. Thunderstorms have developed along the cold front from Cresco, IA to Sidney, IA and are beginning to fill in between. Essentially a continuous line of thunderstorms is expected to move across the state during the next several hours. These storms will likely individually move northeast, while the line moves eastward; creating the risk for heavy rains with storms training over one another. The main severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds, although a few isolated large hail reports are possible. Again, severe thunderstorm watch #680 issued until 11 PM for areas of central and eastern Iowa.

8:20 AM Update: Well after the update was posted yesterday, I watched as all of the precipitation chances throughout the state slowly rose up into the likely category. Now that the morning has arrived and the features of the system are in better shape with clear skies throughout Iowa and places northward the SPC has put a majority of the state under a slight risk for severe weather. Strong winds will push moisture northward throughout the day and temperatures will also rise well into the 80s across the state. This though may not be enough to break a cap we have over the area by warm temperatures that are also slightly aloft in the atmosphere. It seems as if the only way to get thunderstorms today will be right along or just behind the cold front as it moves through the state this afternoon/evening. With storms firing along the front, we'd likely see more linear storms or line segments. This will likely push our threat for tornadoes out the window, with a few isolated hail reports possible. Main threat however is likely to be the damaging winds that will move with these storms; currently the SPC has labeled an increase threat of damaging winds over northeast Iowa where some of the better dynamics are noted thanks to the low pressure system being just to the north in MN/WI.

More updates are likely later in the day...

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