Showing posts with label Storm Updates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Storm Updates. Show all posts

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Severe Weather Threat: April 22

Another day of severe weather potential across the Plains, with the threat now including portions of the Central Plains (southern Kansas). A warm front currently located just north of the Kansas/Oklahoma border will continue to progress slowly northward today, leading to widespread showers/thunderstorms north of the boundary and clearing skies and destabilization south of the boundary. By this evening the warm front should be located along a line extending from the southwest corner of Nebraska to ~Emporia, KS. Areas just along and south of this boundary will have the potential for severe weather this evening into the early overnight. At this point the best severe weather threat will be along the dryline in western portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. These areas will have better instability to go along with better convergence along the dryline boundary. Nonetheless, areas of southern Kansas, especially southwest Kansas, will have the potential for severe weather including large hail, isolated tornadoes, and a few damaging wind gusts. As mentioned, areas further west towards the dryline will see the higher risk for severe weather this afternoon/evening.

In addition to the severe weather threat, general showers/thunderstorms north of this boundary should persist through much of the day. These showers/thunderstorms are currently entering the Kansas City Metro and should continue well into the afternoon as the front only slowly progresses them northward. No severe weather threat is expected north of the boundary due to lack of instability.

An additional update is likely tonight to discuss any ongoing severe weather, and tomorrow threat for severe weather which will shift north and east and include the Kansas City Metro! Friday's severe weather threat will include the risks of very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes...

Monday, April 5, 2010

Severe Weather Update - April 4

Just a brief update tonight on the severe weather threat for the remainder of the overnight. If you were unaware thus far, the threat in the Central Plains was limited by sufficient capping due to an elevated mixed layer and by the lack of upper level forcing to aid in storm development. As we neared sunset the combination of boundary layer decoupling and an increase in the low level jet likely contributed to thunderstorm development in extreme northeast Kansas. These thunderstorms have continued to develop spread both east/west along the warm/stationary front. These thunderstorms will likely continue and expand in coverage during the early overnight hours with the main severe weather threat being large hail. If a storm within the next hour or two can become surface based then a tornado threat would be enhanced (thus the basis on the tornado watch issuance), but the likelihood of this seems rather low. Storms will expand northeast as both the front and associated low pressure system slide northeast as well, with a continued threat for large hail and perhaps a few wind gusts across mainly southern Iowa and extreme northern Missouri, entering into areas of Illinois early tomorrow morning.

Additional development may be possible along the dryline as the low level jet increases even more during the early overnight. An attendant severe hail threat would include an elevated supercell in central Kansas/Oklahoma.

The next update will come with a look at the potential for severe weather on Tuesday for areas of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and other areas of the Plains.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #8

Moderate snow ongoing over the Kansas City metro with strong north-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with some higher gusts as well. This snow should continue for the next few hours before tapering to light snow for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Areas just southeast of the metro areas may continue to see moderate snow through the evening hours...

I've made it back home and am already watching basketball and preparing some dinner.  Pretty fun morning heading out and checking out some of the rural areas, watching the snow fall and the traffic come by.  The highlight of the live stream may have actually been the large group of deer that showed up across a field that I had parked by!  Hopefully you caught that...

Going to relax and watch some basketball.  Next post will likely be the recap of the event sometime tomorrow unless something new develops this afternoon.

Live Winter Storm Video Continues

Currently located on the southern edge of Johnson county Kansas, just south of the Kansas City metro area with a view of I35 on the live camera.  Expect a band of moderate to heavy snow to move into the area shortly and expect visibilities to fall to a half-mile or less at times...  Check out the current stream for your view of winter weather!  And keep in mind the stream is available for media use by contacting me at the number below the video...

Live Streaming Video:  http://www.severeplains.com/live.html

 

Live Winter Storm Video

Watching the next swath of snowfall making its' way northeast and will be entering the Kansas City area withing the next hour or so...  Am preparing everything and will be running the live stream as I head southward out of the Kansas City area and down toward the Johnson/Miami county lines.  Will watch the initial band come through and perhaps travel a bit of the countryside down there to view any blowing snow and drifting that is occurring.

To view the live stream please visit the following link:  http://www.severeplains.com/live.html


Please be patient as the stream will not likely be going until ~10AM this morning, but will likely continue to stream until I arrive back home around the Noon hour or so for some lunch, and for some of the true march madness to get underway this afternoon.

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #7

A nice lull in the snowfall this morning as the frontal precipitation has moved off to the east, and the first indications of a deformation/trowal band are taking shape across north-central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and moving northeast.  This will be the next round of snow that will likely enter the area after 10am and continue into a good portion of the afternoon hours.  Will monitor this band of snow which will likely be several more inches of snow to areas along/south of I35/I335 and I70 in Kansas, and along/south of I70 in western Missouri.

Current snowfall totals vary across the region, and stretch from the Texas panhandle and southwest Oklahoma clear up into southern Wisconsin!  A widespread 2.5-4" occurred over the Kansas City Metro area, with areas just southeast receiving less amounts as the change from rain/sleet to snow occurred later and the heavier band of precipitation were north. For a graphical look at the local storm reports from Midnight until 8am select the link below:

IEM Local Storm Reports (3/20 @ 12AM-8AM)

Live stream will likely begin ~11AM this morning as the next round of snow moves into the area. Details regarding locations are still unknown at this time as I'm taking a wait and see approach to how this next band develops.  An additional update is likely when I prepare to head out the door and begin Live streaming.

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #6

Snow continues through the overnight hours and will likely continue for the Kansas City Metro before some subsiding occurs near 4-6am.  Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are common across the metro region, with some higher amounts just north in areas of Leavenworth county and near St. Joseph, MO.  A brief period of thundersnow was reported and confirmed via ASOS reports of lightning just to the east of Topeka and continued into parts of Leavenworth county.

Been a long day and I aim to be up early in the morning to once again provide some live video of the Kansas City area.  With some light there will be some better views and hopefully a little better road conditions!  Keep track here for the latest updates on when the live streaming will begin and what locations I will likely be streaming from as the trowal axis of the low pressure system skirts by the Kansas City area. 

Friday, March 19, 2010

Winter Storm: Streaming Live!

With a band of moderate to heavy snow likely entering southwest portions of Kansas City I am going to do a little test run and grab some video of the heavy snow and blowing snow around the Shawnee, KS area.  I'll likely be live around 12:10AM, select the link below to view the stream:

http://www.severeplains.com/live.html

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #5

Snow has quickly overspread the Kansas City metro tonight, with a short period of both light rain and sleet occurring this evening areas at least on the Kansas side have switched to moderate snow around 11pm.  Snowfall is already beginning to accumulate on roadways, and strong northwest winds is blowing the snow around as it falls to the ground. Currently getting all of the equipment ready and may head out for a short period of time to grab some nighttime video of the start of the storm. Tomorrow morning I will likely also be out and around the Kansas City area barring decent snowfall is ongoing for some live video and for perhaps a small package of video.  I'll update here as necessary if I am going mobile...

Current expectation is for 4-6" of snow here in Johnson County Kansas, with a widespread 2-5" across the metro with higher amounts of ~6" towards the southern edges.  May not have to go too far further to see snowfall amounts of 6-8" and even higher dependent upon the trowal axis tomorrow afternoon.

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #4

Just a quick update with the 12z model runs...  Amazing to think I'm sitting with the sliding door wide open letting the great outdoor air in at the moment, give another 12 hours and we'll be nearing 32 degrees and snow!!

The 12z NAM stays consistent with the frontal passage across Kansas and Missouri during the overnight hours, however, has changed the trowel strength and maximums once again.  With a surface low path further south compared to previous runs the best area for significant snow will be over parts of Oklahoma into extreme southeast Kansas and perhaps into portions of southwest/western Missouri. The 12z GFS is similar with a surface low track through Arkansas just a little further southeast, thus the best trowal now located a little further southeast away from the Kansas City Metro. 

Will likely get the 'live' setup going late tonight after I arrive home from work, but may not turn it on until the early morning hours so that there is truly something to view besides a dark view of the ground.  Expect to see white ground by sunrise Saturday over Kansas City, with total accumulations of ~4" along and south of I70, with 2-4" for the areas north of I70.  An additional update is likely tonight ~11PM or shortly thereafter...

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #3

The off-hour model runs (06z) last night kept some consistency, although they both once again depicted some areas seeing over 18" of snowfall in eastern Oklahoma.  No drastic changes nonetheless, and we have Winter Storm Watches now posted for large areas of northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and western Missouri. Areas currently under the Winter Storm Watch are expected to see at least 6" of snow through Saturday evening. This heaviest swath is fairly consistent with my wording last night of where the heaviest snowfall is likely to occur, south of I35/I335 and I70 in Kansas and then between I70 and I44 in western Missouri.

I work this afternoon, thus will not be able to update during the afternoon hours as the cold front begins to dive into the area and we finally start to find out how quickly the change-over from rain to snow will occur.  Current indications are that a few hours of rain in Kansas City before we see snow mixing in and a change over to all snow just after Midnight tonight. The heaviest snow will not likely come with this first band of frontal precipitation, but rather the trowal development that will occur on Saturday and likely skirt the southern portions of the Kansas City Metro.  Will post another update after the 12z runs are available and hopeful confirm the going forecast, but would expect to see at least 4-6" of snow for areas of Kansas City south of I70.  The heaviest snowfall totals still look to occur over portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, but the remaining areas under the Winter Storm Watch aren't going to escape without some hefty amounts as well.

Additional update expected ~11AM...

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Update #2

Just a quick update to post two model images from tonight, both the NAM and GFS 00z snowfall forecasts courtesy of Earl Barker's Model Page.  The snow algorithm used here is a max-temp in profile, although not as high as an omega or Cobb algorithm output, it is still likely higher than what you will actually see. This will be due to melting that will initially occur with any snowfall (due to warm ground temperatures), but then also compaction as the snow is expected to be quite wet and heavy at times.  With that, the two images are below (NAM above, GFS below):




Saturday, February 13, 2010

Winter Weather - Feb. 13/14

Snow ongoing over parts of northern Iowa, western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas with some heavy snow reports even coming in at times. A few reports that have came in already include 4" in Sioux Falls, SD and 2.5" in Rock Rapids, IA. This snow will continue to expand through the overnight, and slowly make its' way southward as a surface low forms in association with the upper level low that has made its' way into the eastern Dakotas. No major changes in forecasted snow totals with a band of 3-5" and isolated 6" amounts still seeming likely from western/central Iowa south/southeast through central and eastern Missouri. The latest Kansas City NWS graphic shows a pretty good depiction of forecasted snow totals.



Beyond the snowfall, expect northwest winds to increase during the overnight and Sunday for the area. Leading to blowing and drifting snow and hazardous driving conditions for your Valentines' Day. Cold and breezy conditions will continue through Monday before we see the sun again and a slight warm-up through midweek.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #5

Although the vast majority of moderate and heavy snowfall is out of the Plains region, lingering flurries and light snow are continuing across a large portion of the Plains due to the cold arctic air that is plunging in.  This cold air is featured in the layer of the atmosphere that is favorable for snow growth, thus flurries or light snow is being condensed out and falling over several areas. While this snow isn't expected to accumulate much, the strong northwest winds will continue to blow any loose snow around.  Some portions of Minnesota, Iowa and northern Missouri may be able to squeeze out another inch of snowfall with the persistent light snow that is featured next to the upper level low.  For this reason many of the local NWS offices have yet to issue any maps regarding snowfall totals.  If you would like to keep up with the totals in Iowa, the IEM has a automatically updating plot on snowfall totals available at the following link:

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/data/lsr_snowfall.png


Some travel concerns continue where the snowfall was heavy enough and light enough to continue to blow and drift with the strong northwest winds.  The winds are expected to slowly decrease this evening and through the overnight, relieving any travel concerns by tomorrow morning. A final recap on this winter storm will be posted when summary maps are available...

Monday, February 8, 2010

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #4

A quick update with a look at a surface chart with contoured and color-filled gradient of surface temperatures, as well as 10-meter wind speeds overlayed.  Can you tell me where the upper-low, cold front, and occlusion is occurring?  A pretty impressive surface map with temperatures dropping like a rock across parts of northwest Iowa and adjacent areas, Spencer recorded a temperatures of -19 back at 8PM.  These temperatures will slowly rise through the night as the low pressure overhead moves eastward and northwest winds actually advects warmer air into the area!

I'll post an additional update later on tonight or early tomorrow with some of the snow totals, currently it would look as if parts of eastern Iowa and Minnesota won the snow battle with 6-10" in that area. Portions of Missouri and Kansas were able to get into the 3-6" range with a few isolated higher amounts in southern Kansas. Parts of northern Arkansas also won the snow big with a few reports over 6" being received as well. This snow will continue over parts of eastern Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and other adjacent areas. More details on snow totals later...  For now enjoy the fancy image below:


Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #3

Our winter storm continues across the Plains states, however, with decreasing forecasted snow totals for many regions. Nearly all locals have seen a decrease in their forecasted snow totals as the two systems are struggling to produce better than a light to moderate snowfall. While over time the light to moderate snow will still lead to heavy accumulations in some areas, mainly central and eastern Iowa, this will not lead to significant accumulations across most other areas due to the longevity of the storm.  A cold front sweeping down through areas of the central Plains this afternoon/evening will put an end to the snowfall in some areas, which will hinder the storm totals that could otherwise continue to increase through the overnight.

The two storm systems will begin to conjoin during the day today, with continued snow across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma spreading eastward. Ongoing light to moderate snow is expected over areas of Iowa as the northern stream upper level low continues to dig and spin without much movement. This is still expected to leave two bands of heavier snow, one over Iowa and another over southern Kansas into portions of Missouri. The latest Kansas City NWS graphic has a good interpretation of these two bands, although don't expect to see accumulations too much higher than 5" in the band across Missouri.

 


An additional update is expected tonight as the arctic air begins to enter the Plains and aid in stopping the snowfall, I'll try and update on accumulations thus far as well.

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #2

Several NWS offices have begun to issue their latest forecasted snow totals for portions of the Plains states.  The Topeka NWS office has decreased their amounts compared to their first forecast, with only 5-7" expected in their warning area with less amounts to the north. This 5-7" line has shifted slightly south as well, just south of the Kansas City Metro to align with the forecasted totals from the Kansas City NWS office as well.  The Des Moines NWS office on the other hand did actually increase the snow totals for parts of central and eastern Iowa where 10-13" is now forecasted.  This area is currently the favorite to see a prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow as the upper level low from the northern stream stalls for a moment during the day Monday before moving eastward during the evening and overnight.  It is important to note that any changes in the path of the northern stream upper level low could create a change in the forecasted snow totals.  I've posted the latest NWS maps regarding storm totals below, these are all as of 1:30 PM on Sunday.

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Update #1

A truly complex situation has resulted in many questions regarding the amounts and placements of snowfall totals across the Plains states.  An initial shortwave that is rounding the northern low pressure system is creating some light snow across parts of the central Plains this morning, with accumulations staying rather light through the day today.  The more important feature will be a shortwave and associated trough that is currently making its' way into the four corners region this morning. This will continue to move eastward through the day and make its' way onto the Plains during the overnight, just ahead of this shortwave we will see a brief ridge develop in response to the digging trough which will allow a good return of moisture northward.  As this trough continues eastward it will begin to interact with the cutoff low pressure system that will be positioned over the northern Plains, and this is where the forecast truly becomes complicated.  These two features will eventually come together as one, with the southern stream shortwave allowing for the low pressure system to finally move eastward sometime on Monday. An interesting note found in the Kansas City NWS discussion shows just how unique this event is, as they were not able to find a good analog event for just such an instance.  In other words, they do not have record of a similar event occurring this far east over the Plains states.  All of this comes together to paint a very messy and snowy picture for the Plains, but a wide range of snowfall forecasts for this winter storm.

The morning models have really had a rough time this morning, with a variance of snowfall accumulations greater than 6 inches in some locations between the NAM and GFS.  Of course the Kansas City Metro is once again along the line of receiving anywhere from 6-9" of snowfall to only 2-5" of snowfall depending upon the track of the southern wave and its' precipitation.  We could also see a fluctuation in snowfall amounts depending upon where the two systems interact and begin to push eastward with a strong cold front.  This has essentially led to a hedging of snowfall amounts for the area, with 4-8" a decent forecast at this point with so many questions remaining still only ~24 hours out.  The hardest hit areas will likely be over southern Kansas and Missouri, and then eastern portions of Iowa/Minnesota ahead of the northern upper level low.  Both of these areas will likely see 8"+ snowfall amounts by Tuesday morning. Other portions of eastern Missouri will likely see a good 4-8" swath of snowfall, while areas of northwest Missouri (W of I35, N of KC Metro), Nebraska, and extreme western Iowa will miss out on the majority of heavy snows and see less than 4" of snowfall.  An additional update late tonight is expected, with any additional refining to snowfall totals based upon the location of the southern stream system.

Friday, February 5, 2010

Winter Storm: Feb. 5 Update #1

Light to moderate snow has fallen over the Kansas City area this morning, with nearly an inch of accumulation thus far.  Snow is expected to continue here through the next couple of hours with at least another inch of accumulation likely.  All but the northeast portion of Kansas has seen the snow taper to just flurries with much of their accumulations falling overnight with this initial band.  Snowfall reports through central and eastern Kansas have varied from 0.5" to upwards of 2-4" in eastern Kansas where the snow has ended within the past few hours.

The band of snow that is currently over western Missouri and northeast Kansas will continue to move eastward through the afternoon, arriving along the Mississippi River during the late afternoon. Snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected across much of the state with this band, with only the far southern portions of the state being too warm to see significant snow accumulations.  There may be a few isolated spots of 5 or 6 inch amounts across mainly central and east-central Missouri as models have indicated an area of enhanced snowfall growth. 

Further north across Nebraska and Iowa, snowfall has tapered across most areas, with some snowfall still possible over southeast NE and southwest IA with this second wave and band of snow. Total accumulations overnight were greatest in the Omaha metro area where 3-4 inches fell with a few isolated higher amounts.  Other areas of Iowa saw an inch or two last night, and a 1-3 inch swath was seen across parts of southern Nebraska.

A later update will include a recap of snowfall reports received over the central Plains region...

Winter Storm: Feb. 5

Conditions and forecast remain on track for a minor winter storm to occur across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and other adjacent areas.  A band of snowfall will continue to work east through the overnight hours across central and eastern Kansas, and continuing through the state of Missouri tomorrow.  Total snow accumulations will likely range from 2-4 inches, however, some areas may see higher amounts where snow growth can be maximized for short periods of time.  The best chance for these areas will be over portions of central and east-central Missouri during the afternoon hours tomorrow.  These areas of enhanced snow growth may be able to see 3-6 inches of a heavy wet snow...

Expect some travel delays tomorrow morning across the Kansas City metro, with delays and concerns for the St. Louis metro during the commute back home tomorrow evening.  Other parts of the state of Missouri will also have travel problems over all but the far southern region due to snowfall.

Further north in areas of Nebraska and extreme western Iowa a light to moderate snow will continue through much of the night, producing widespread 2-4 inch amounts across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.  These amounts are also expected to be of a wet and heavy snow, which won't create any additional blowing or drifting snow problems like many of the storms previous have.

Sorry for the short update, but a long evening of work due to this storm and it is time to call it a night.  A brief recap of the storm may be posted this weekend, otherwise an additional update on Saturday will likely be posted to let you know about the upcoming Super Bowl storm for parts of the Plains!!