Monday, September 17, 2007

Early Week Severe Weather

As mentioned in the previous discussion, the thunderstorms possibilities were likely and there was also a the chance of a few of those storms being severe over western Iowa tonight. The SPC has agreed and confirmed the forecast, issuing Severe Thunderstorm Watch #671 for portions of northwest Iowa until 1:00 AM. Thunderstorms likely to erupt within the next hour or two along a boundary that is positioned through central MN and into extreme eastern SD. These thunderstorms will likely congeal into several line segments as they move to the east/northeast. Likely threats would be damaging winds, a few large hail reports also cannot be ruled out tonight. More updates possible later tonight if storms do indeed threaten northwest Iowa...


More severe weather is possible tomorrow as this system slowly works east. The threat tomorrow will cover a majority of the state, currently only leaving out extreme northwest & southeast Iowa. The threat once again will mainly be for damaging winds, a few large hail reports and the potential for some heavy rains over the state. Convective debris (left over storms & clouds) from tonights' storms could hamper the severe threat tomorrow if it hangs over the state. However if things are able to clear and allow full heating, thus ample instability able to break the cap earlier than tonight the possibility of severe storms may be better. More information on Tuesdays' severe weather will likely come out as the system evolves overnight and the amount of instability & capping become known.

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