Severe Weather & Chase Possibilities

Well this weekend is winding up to of interest to many chasers across the plains states and it may end up affecting portions of Iowa on Sunday. I'll see what I can do to keep this up to date over my busy weekend, for now here is a copy of what I posted on the StormCenterUSA Forums:

This weekend may have a nice event in store for areas of the plains states. A strong shortwave looks to dig down into the plains after coming off the Rockies during the afternoon on Saturday. Previously the GFS and ECMWF were quite inconsistent with the placement of the wave, last nights' runs however do look like they have begun on a better agreement.

Saturday looks to hold potential for mainly areas of the high plains, with that threat possibly being late night when the low begins to form over some portion of the western plains. Both the WRF & the GFS have the shortwave centered in Utah at 00z (Saturday evening); only difference is how far south with the GFS approx. 100 miles further to the south. The ECMWF has the system as far south as the GFS does while still having it slightly slower; estimated 3 hours slower. The shortwave therefore doesn't eject out out of the Rockies until sometime in the middle of the night. This is likely going to put a damper on the severe weather threat if the system does indeed come out slower and poses more of a nighttime MCS event...

Sunday may turn out to be a more interesting day, at least dynamically, with the wave over the plains during peak hours of severe activity. The GFS puts the prime location (east portion of wave) over areas of MN/IA, eastern NE/KS as well as MO. The ECMWF on the other hand continues to be slower with the progression as well as further south; putting its' prime areas over central/eastern NE, western IA, KS & possibly OK. Overall Sunday still seems like it is up in the air, which is also why the SPC has left it out of the outlook for the extended given the uncertainties in models.