Trip to Denver & New Computer

TWISTEX has came to an end and thus the cars will be returning to the Denver area in the upcoming days. The ISU crew will be driving from Ames to Lakewood, CO during the day tomorrow, hopefully making Lakewood by supper time. Spending the night in Lakewood before returning to Ames on Monday, in which I will also be returning home Monday evening as well. This trip will tack onto the total miles for TWISTEX, with 850 miles on the trip for me one-way, thus the trip total miles will likely add on around 1700 miles! Once I return and we get passed the July 4th holiday, I will then get the whole update on the miles and time spent traveling during the month of June.

Other news is the addition of a new computer, an Inspiron 1501, which has been equipped with Windows Vista release. So far I haven't ran into many problems with the computer, a lot of features with the new Vista release that allow you to personalize it. I've gotten all of my programs on it without problems for the most part, however there are still programs that aren't 'officially' ready to run with Vista and thus do have some problem with what features they can offer running in a Vista environment. The new media offers with Vista are quite unique and make it look much like some of the iBook or other Apple computers do that have been bought by the more photo/video people as of late. If I have any troubles with Vista I'll be sure to update on here, but for now it looks good. Any questions on it be sure to leave a comment and I'll get back to you!

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Ending of TWISTEX

Well I returned from the marathon of driving late last night, about 1 am is when I pulled into my destination for the night. This after the crew began the trip home at 9:30 am in Grand Forks, ND; stopping to dismantle the mesonets in Grand Rapids, MN and then on our way down I-35 to Ames, IA. This isn't the end of driving however for the ISU crew, as we will be taking the vehicles back to their rightful home in Denver, CO coming up on Sunday/Monday. Once I find some time from the hectic schedule to update and review the whole June TWISTEX season I will post the totals miles and what we actually saw on the long journeys.

Jokingly as we sat in Subway in Grand Rapids, a comment was made on our month of chasing that can pretty much sum it up however. "You know, we can't really figure out how many miles we traveled per tornado captured, as when you divide by zero you get an error!!"

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June 25 TWISTEX Chase

Status: On-The-Road
Location: Pierre, SD -- Devils Lake, ND -- Grand Forks, ND

12:50 AM Update: Finally ending the night in Grand Forks after eating our 'last supper' here in town. This was the last night the crew will be together for the year... Tomorrows' plan will include the drive to Grand Rapids, MN to disassemble the mesonets; then the long journey back to Ames, IA to put up the cars for a little while; and of course finish it all off with my drive back home which I can hopefully make before the day comes to an end. Stats on todays' chase and all of the chases for TWISTEX will likely be posted in the later days, for now it's time for bed.

8:50 PM Update: We've sat in Devils Lake for nearly 6 hours now waiting for something to show up in the area. Needless to say we've been shut out, not even good signs of convection in the clouds. Just had the wind shift come through, making winds northerly and finally forcing us to leave the area. In route to Grand Forks where we may likely stay the night...

4:30 PM Update: Sitting in Devils Lake, ND still; looking at some data now and I have some hope for the storms if they can develop. And that is where the hope is, that we can get storms to develop during the evening hours in the area and not have it wait until nightfall and the parameters start to drop... The crew is all in the Devils Lake area, thus shouldn't be too much longer until we do something worthwhile on the chase front.

3:10 PM Update: Finally reached our destination of Devils Lake, ND, left Pierre around 9:30 this morning. Not to bad of a trip, at least the latter couple of hours was terrain that we had yet to see. Don't have much information on how things are looking, but the rest of the crew is on their way and should arrive shortly. It's time to go and enjoy our pizza...

8:30 AM Update: Woke up to a not so great forecast for the area really, nothing is screaming at us at all as far as severe potential goes. In fact, according to SPC it is just whispering about tornado potential for the day... We are likely to be heading to the best spot we can find, northeast ND once again as we are in front of the surface low and it holds some at least 'decent' potential for storm development by this evening. If storms can develop in the capped environment up there, they do seem to have potential for tornadoes. Likely hitting the road soon to head to Devils Lake, ND...

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June 24 TWISTEX Update

Status: On-The-Road
Location: Terril, IA -- Ames, IA -- Pierre, SD

12:15 AM Update: Reached our destination for the night of Pierre, SD; staying at our trusty Super 8 once again. Getting some information on the setup for tomorrow before we head to bed... Ended the day with 628 miles traveled over approx. 10 1/2 hours total.

4:00 PM Update: In Ames now, awaiting for the team to assemble up and hit the road. We're still really unsure about where we are going for the night, but I'll update when we get to that unknown destination.

11:30 AM Update: Quick update once again as things have been put together quickly for a trip to North Dakota. After seeing the last couple of days and how they have came together in Canada, it isn't a huge surprise that we've decided to make it at least a 1 day trip up there to get in on the action. Too bad we couldn't have seen the last 2 days of tornadoes in southern Manitoba...

The ISU crew is hitting the road today to get closer to the target in central ND tomorrow, unsure of our departure from Ames and where exactly we'll spend the night. I'll update tonight once we get into our destination for today with more details...
The Samaras crew is hitting the roads already in hopes of gaining some large hail in Montana today. SPC's latest outlook upgraded to moderate risk due to the large hail risk over portions of MT/ND. It is unsure where they'll spend the night as well as it will be based on their location after todays' chasing.

Update likely tonight to adjust location and put out an actual forecast on the events for tomorrow...

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June 22 Storms & TWISTEX Update

Thunderstorms began in northwest Iowa once again early this morning and continued across the state during the overnight hours. The remnants of the storms left behind plenty of cloud cover and a very soaked ground over the state. Despite all of this working against more development, thunderstorms have once again taken hold of Iowa. Two severe thunderstorm watches are in effect for the state this afternoon and into tonight, for southwest Iowa (Watch #443 Details) and for much of central and eastern Iowa (Watch #442 Details); Both of those watches continue until 9 PM. Currently Guthrie and Dallas counties are under warnings, for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Previously storms moved over areas to the northwest of their, putting down .75" hail and 65 mph winds near Carroll, Iowa. Expect these thunderstorms to continue to work south and east during the evening/nighttime hours until they exit the state late tonight.

More development of thunderstorms is possible tomorrow, but mainly over extreme southern Iowa. The severe threat with these storms is once again small, much like todays' threat over the state...

Early this morning when the thunderstorms were over northwest Iowa, I was able to grab a few shots of the light show that they were producing. Those pictures can be found online in my photo album: June 22 Lightning

TWISTEX Update: A quick update for now, deployment plans are possible for early next week. Targets would likely be the extreme northern plains and possibly the Canadian plains... Details will likely be finalized tomorrow, although currently the chances of deployment for that far of a target are slim.

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June 21 Severe

Overview: After an early round of severe thunderstorms this morning in eastern Iowa, the skies lit up once again in the afternoon. Storms began moving into northwestern Iowa in the early afternoon hours, with new development just ahead of this line in northcentral Iowa and another newly developed line in west-central Iowa. Both of these clusters of thunderstorms were quickly able to become severe and even tornadic in some cases as they moved across the state. Continued development of storms occurred to fill in all of the gaps in the cells, essentially blanketing the state in severe thunderstorms by this evening. To go over a few of the reports today, tornadoes were reported near Eagle Grove (Wright county), Shell Rock (Butler county), Ames (Story county) and Waterloo (Black Hawk county). Several dozen reports came in with large hail and damaging winds, most of the hail reports were an inch or less and many of the wind reports were not greater than 65 mph. Besides the tornadoes, the worst report of the day came in at 3 miles north of Renwick in Humboldt county, where 2.50" diameter hail fell around 3:20 this afternoon.

11:25 AM Update: New SPC outlook for today has now upgraded to Moderate for portions of SD/NE/MN and Iowa. Storms continue to develop in southeast SD, these should continue to move east/southeast this afternoon and eventually make their way into northwest Iowa early this afternoon. If these storms as well as others that develop remain discrete during the afternoon hours, potential for very large and damaging hail is there along with the chance of a few tornadoes. However, the possibility exists for thunderstorms to congeal into more of a linear line and thus the wind threat would become higher, with some large hail being possible.

10:15 AM Update: Severe weather already occurring this morning across the northern plains, including parts of eastern Iowa where warnings were posted for large hail earlier near the Iowa City area. Those thunderstorms continue to move out of the state while new storms are expected to move in this afternoon. One severe/tornadic thunderstorm is already occurring in southeast South Dakota, this storm is expected to continue and allow other storms to develop near it during the rest of the morning hours. For this reason, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #433 has been issued for areas of SD, MN and Iowa. The northwest 9 counties of Iowa are included in this watch that serves for mainly large hail and damaging winds, it is valid until 4 PM this afternoon.

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Severe Weather Likely in Iowa

Several rounds of severe thunderstorms may occur over the state the next 3 days. The first round will likely occur late tonight over mainly portions of western Iowa, although central Iowa is not completely excluded from this risk. Latest forecast models have a MCS (large cluster of thunderstorms) moving into the northwest part of Iowa after 3 am tonight. This cluster or line of thunderstorms may have the potential for damaging winds as well as large hail throughout the early morning hours as it moves through the state. Several questions with this system that are unknown at this time include how far this cluster will make it into Iowa while remaining severe and if it does continue eastward or southeastward through the state, it has the possibility of intensifying and becoming severe during the afternoon on Thursday as well in eastern Iowa.

Another round of thunderstorms then becomes possible during the afternoon Thursday in northern Iowa as we have a frontal boundary that is likely to be near the area. This combined with possible outflow boundaries from the late night MCS may allow for very strong thunderstorms to form. Any thunderstorms that do develop along the boundary during the evening hours will likely be capable of all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. Areas that are not affected by any isolated supercells during the evening hours will once again be put in a severe risk by another nighttime MCS. Once again coming out of SD/NE and moving eastward, the threat for damaging winds and large hail increases during the nighttime hours.

Lastly, areas of central and eastern Iowa have their shot at more severe weather on Friday when the system begins to move east. The threats at this point are questionable and currently do not look to be as severe as the previous days severe weather, however with the forecast currently for tomorrow still questionable, there is time for the threat on Friday to become larger.

Updates likely tonight and early tomorrow dependent on MCS movement and prospects of a storm chase...

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Severe Weather (Wed/Thur)

TWISTEX Update: Crews have all returned home, with us once again waiting for another good severe weather threat with westerly or southwesterly flow aloft. Although severe weather is likely over the northern plains, winds aloft are from the northwest and are not usually considered as the best when it comes to a tornadic supercell threat. Thus, deployment not likely until this weekend when a belt of westerly and southwesterly winds become possible over the far northern plains. This is currently the highlighted area for watching, possible deployment for the weekend and into Monday as of current forecasts...
Adding the last chase trip, I have now logged in 3,608.59 miles with the TWISTEX crew and over 75 hours of on-the-road driving.

A severe weather threat is likely over the plains states tomorrow and Thursday, with Iowa being involved in both days. Although cooler today, with much less moisture over the state and other areas of the northern plains will quickly evolve into warm and humid by as early as tomorrow. Strong moisture gradient is currently noted over KS/MO where at least mid 60s dewpoints are noted. This moisture is likely to surge northward today/tonight and through Thursday, allowing mid 60s to upper 60s dewpoints as far north as SD/MN. This moisture return along with strong heating will allow for moderate to strong instability over the plains states on both days. A warm front is likely to settle into portions of SD/MN during both days and a cold front, possible dryline will be near stationary over SD/NE. These two areas will be the focus for severe weather development...

On Wednesday, on the eastern edge of a cap (warmer temperatures aloft) thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon, evening hours. These thunderstorms will likely be capable of large hail and damaging winds; isolated tornadoes may also be possible, especially over areas of southeastern SD. This threat is likely to congeal into a linear line of thunderstorms or an MCS that travels eastward through the nighttime hours. This MCS is likely to reach the IA and MN area by early morning on Thursday with the potential for damaging winds most likely...

Thursday morning will allow the MCS from previous night move out of Iowa, possibly continuing its' severe threat of damaging winds into the Ohio Valley by Thursday evening. Additional thunderstorm development seems likely over possibly two areas; one along the cold front/stationary boundary in central & eastern SD/NE and the other along the warm front through northern Iowa. Both boundaries may be able to initiate thunderstorms capable of large hail and isolated tornadoes. Currently the forecasts indicate that the best tornadic potential may indeed be over portions of Iowa during the evening hours. However with this threat still a decent time out in the forecast, expect subtle changes in the threats and their locations by tomorrow. It is definitely going to be a couple of days in which Iowans should keep an eye out for severe weather.

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June 18 TWISTEX Update

Status: On-The-Road
Location: Grand Forks, ND -- Terril, IA

Hitting the road for home today as the severe weather threat over the northern plains is diminished considerably along the cold front. After finding a place that was open at 1 AM last night for food and getting it delivered to the hotel, it was around 2 AM. Another late night, but with a route for home today allowed us to take it easy and get off to a fairly late start. I'll be dropped off near Sioux City to make my way home from this trip, which was once again mainly unsuccessful.

June 15 Travel: Home to Sioux Falls, SD -- 134 Miles (2 Hours, 30 Minutes)
June 16 Travel: Sioux Falls, SD to Wyoming to Pierre, SD -- 780.26 Miles (16 Hours, 50 Minutes)
June 17 Travel: Pierre, SD to northwest ND to Grand Forks, ND -- 520 Miles (12 Hours, 53 Minutes)
June 18 Travel: Grand Forks, ND to Home -- 510 Miles (10 Hours, 10 Minutes)

TWISTEX will hopefully once again get another chase in before this month is complete, but forecasts are not very helpful in showing good systems once again. Haven't had a chance to look at anything for the extended outlook, so I don't have any great idea of when we could go out again. SPC did have portions of the northern plains in their extended day 4-8 outlook yesterday, but the system responsible would likely be another cold front passage. Updates will continue in hopes of operations once again...

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June 17 TWISTEX Chase

Status: On-The-Road
Location: Pierre, SD to Grand Forks, ND

10:30 PM: The team has been on the cell in Ramsey/Nelson/Walsh counties in North Dakota for nearly the past 2 hours. Quite a unique storm and very interesting situation, as we approached we had very thick fog (visib. 1/4 mile) and could not make out any structure whatsoever. The storm did however really become organized and tornado warned; visibility became better and we were able to see structure with it. As noted, we followed this storm very closely for approx. an hour and a half watching various lowerings as it continued to be tornado warned. We broke off from the storm approx, a quarter after 10; once on our road to go southeast however we encountered the core of the storm once again. Wind gusts 40-50 kts and some penny sized hail along with blinding rains finished off the chase nicely, now likely heading for a stay in Grand Forks, ND for the night. Tomorrows' plans will likely include the journey back home for the crews...

8:15 PM: Well we've watched an elevated storm just north of the warm front near the Devils Lake, ND area for a while. After watching the towers south of the front pulse and die, with little hope of development the decision is we might as well head to that storm and

7:15 PM: Went up to McVille, ND to top off the gas tanks and wait a while for something to show up that was exciting. Ended up with fresh radar images that showed off a nice boundary that was actually moving southwards, as we let it overrun us just before leaving it was a nice cool air with winds from the northeast. Now moving back southeastward out ahead of that boundary and back into the really juicy air that we left behind for a moment.

5:30 PM: Stopped just south of Finley, ND to check up on things and wait for better development; now moving once again just to stick around in the area of good CU development. (6:00 PM)

4:15 PM: After seeing what the cell northeast of Grand Forks did, rapidly turning tornadic, we've quickly decided to move east and north. This will locate us along that same boundary and near two other potential boundaries that we've picked up on. One located now east of Jamestown and another that we recently noted on the Aberdeen radar that has just crossed over the border and moving north.

4:00 PM: Sitting in Jamestown, ND awaiting something to get our attention and begin the chase. We are fairly pleased with the way things are sitting right now as far as observations go, but still awaiting a good sign of convection along or south of the warm front and ahead of the cold front. We should have storms to chase within an hour or two the way things look...

12:49 PM: We've now entered North Dakota with CU field's in sight to our west/north and even some CU to our east. With the warm front still in sight and hanging around we have good hopes compared to last night. Looks like we'll be driving continuously here as I doubt we'll have time to spare the way the CU are starting to act up.

11:00 AM: Taking a late start today thanks to the target area being nearby and the delay of getting a tire fixed. We're going to try and play the warm front/cold front intersection (triple point) somewhere along the ND/SD borders as it stands right now. On the road again after a good 8 hour period of 'downtime' from the vehicle; going to put another state visited under my belt today as we're likely end up in North Dakota. Just to continue the blabing a little more, Pierre had some nice folks and overall South Dakota was a nice place to chase (only better if there were storms).

3:00 AM: Finally arrived in Pierre after our adventures of the day, or actu0ly 2 days and very ready for some sleep. Will update again in morning with some idea of our target along the cold front...

1:00 AM: An update a little earlier than expected, a nice blowout in one of the vehicles near Wall, SD has put us even further behind in route to our hotel. With a spare tire it has also decreased our speeds to a near unbearable 55 mph. Currently planned on arriving to Pierre near 3:30 am local time; with an earlier wake-up to fix a tire in the morning.

12:30 AM: Still driving to begin the day, 25 miles east of Rapid City with over 165 miles left to go before the night is done. Will be spending the night in Pierre, SD and hopefully awakening to a decent outlook for tomorrow or at least one better than is being pictured by what data/forecasts we have looked at so far tonight.

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