Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Thunderstorms... Moving...

Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast for tonight, with a possible MCS making its’ way into the state from the west. These thunderstorms do not have a threat to be severe, given the lack of significant features within the system. However, some areas will be looking at heavy rain with the system as it continues into the morning hours tomorrow for portions of central Iowa. Once again tomorrow afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected and will continue into the overnight and early Friday. And a repeat once again on Friday as thunderstorms develop and move across the state during the overnight hours. All of this due to a weak system making its’ way across the plains. The severe threat with this system seems weak, but some isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Thursday/Friday over the state.

In other news, I’ll be moving back down to Ames tomorrow for the start of the school year. I have a wedding to attend this weekend back home, so I’ll most likely not be online much until Sunday evening. I have posted my schedule for this fall on my website, the ISU Meteorology page features it.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Cool August… Thunderstorms!

Well the last couple of days throughout the state have been quite nice! In fact near chilly in some areas during the early morning hours, this all happening during the ‘dog days’ of summer in Iowa! I seem to remember back anytime during high school when we began our football camp, usual highs in the mid 90s with dewpoints around 70, thus making it feel like 110 or so. Not this year, its’ averaged out around the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints have usually stayed below the mid 60s. Definately doesn’t feel like August weather out right now and it doesn’t look to change anytime soon with highs across the state ranging from the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s! One thing that isn’t uncommon is some thunderstorms and they look to also return to the forecast by Wednesday night in western Iowa as a possible MCS type situation looks to unfold. The thunderstorms should remain in the forecast throughout the day on Thursday and Friday. Some severe potential seems to exist with the storms, although any specific details are going to be quite hard to pin down at the moment. For now, just enjoying the outside with mild temperatures, especially as the school year begins next week!

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Showers… New Store Products

Well in what was supposed to be our turn in Iowa for severe weather, has so far turned out to be some dreadful cloudcover and showers, although a few embedded thunderstorms have survived so far. Latest outlook from the SPC put it simply, if we don’t get sun, we won’t get storms and so far only small portions of Iowa have seen the sun today. Otherwise the clearings have stayed over areas of KS/NE and those areas could see some fairly good storms today. Main threats will be hail/winds, especially this evening the threat will turn to wind as the storms go linear. After this period of showers today, areas of southeast Iowa could see some more showers/thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening. Otherwise the next threat of rain/thunderstorms will come on Wednesday and could last until the early weekend for some areas of the state. In the meantime, expect temperatures in the low to mid 80s for most of the week with lows in the 50s for the most part.

I’ve been busy adding and designing products to the store on the website: www.stormcenterusa.com/chasing/store.html Several new shirts have been added and hopefully more to come, other products will be added as well. If you have an idea/design for a shirt or any other product that you might like, please contact me and I’ll be sure to make the product that you want, specifically for you!!

Thursday, August 10, 2006

ISU/UNLV Recap - Plenty of Rain

Well the game last night was quite the dandy, where once again the Iowa State crowd was foreced to wait until the final play of the game before knowing who would win. Fortunately, this time it at least happened within regulation, but not without controversy. ISU looked decent through the first half and the beginning of the second, holding up a 16-3 lead going into the 4th quarter. But, once again UNLV like Toledo during the first week came back, this time the score 16-10 into the final minutes. Iowa State’s offense struggled late, which helped UNLV gain control of the ball with time running out. With under 10 seconds left, a pass by UNLV was caught near the 5 and then fumbled, but quickly recovered back by the UNLV receiver. This play was challenged upstairs, once challenged it was then ruled that it was an incomplete pass and left them around the 10 yard line with 7 seconds remaining. So last play of the game, quarterback scrambles to the right half of the field and fires into the corner in which it was caught by a UNLV receiver. But, as it was caught in mid-air the ISU corner shoved him out of bounds along with his momentum making his feet land well out of bounds. At the time and by the view of many, including the UNLV team as well as much of the crowd thought this was quite close. But, ruled out of bounds the game was over, officials quickly left the field as the ISU team rushed onto the field in celebration. UNLV was not happy with this though, thinking that the play should have been reviewed and stayed on field for nearly 20 minutes in protest, demanding the referee’s back onto the field to review the play. As the story goes, the review official upstairs did look over the play, with the receiver landing well out of bounds he made the decision that it did not need to have an ‘officials’ review. Therefore the final stood, 16-10, ISU wins another close one. Time to get geared up for the Iowa Hawkeyes, a game that ISU will have to play better than what they have, but if history has shown, Iowa State usually seems to play only to the opponents potential. Leaving me hope that the team will get its’ act together and give Iowa a tough fight in Kinnick.

As for the weather, just as expected the rain held off for the most part until late last night and early this morning. Only a few sprinkles and occasional ‘mistings’ of rain during the game. The rain continued throughout the day today and has continued into this overnight, leaving Ames with nearly an inch and a half of rainfall with a possible half inch left to come overnight and into tomorrow. By Tuesday the rain should stop, but a chillier day on store Tuesday with temperatures raning from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the state. Wednesday through Friday the weekend looks to remain fairly dry and temperatures mild. Ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s throughout the period, highest temperatures coming on Friday before a slight weekend cool down. Lows during this period look vary from the mid-40s to near 50 on Tuesday night, rising into the lower 50s on Wednesday night, and then finally up to the mid to upper 50s for the remaining weeknights and into the weekend.

More Thunderstorms...

Well early this morning brought two MCS’s through the central part of Iowa, creating two severe thunderstorm watches and several warnings as large hail and especially damaging winds went through the state. I of course, while this MCS was going about an hour or two south of me, was soundly sleeping, only heard thunder once all night last night. Looking at the reports from last night, only wind reports were received, mainly in the 60-70 mph range. Heavy rainfall was also an issue and with continued chances of thunderstorm, will remain an issue with flash flooding in some areas of the state.

As for the title, More Thunderstorms… Today, some tomorrow possible and then even more as we get into the weekend and early next week! Tonight it seems possible for another MCS to scrape at least the western edge of the state as it dives out of the Dakotas and into the Missouri River Valley. Tomorrow will most likely bring a few thunderstorms, mainly garden variety into the area, nothing in the way of severe weather expected. By Saturday, a nighttime MCS seems like a possibility again as it comes out of the Dakotas and into MN/IA, again the western portion of the state seems more likely at a risk. Sunday the risk will most likely include much of the state, possibility of afternoon thunderstorms as another cold front comes across the plains with the development of MCS’s into the evening hours. Sioux Falls NWS has already included in 50% thunderstorm chances for northwest Iowa on Sunday, and Thunderstorms Likely by Sunday night as the system moves through. So, maybe another chase day? We’ll have to see, luckily the past two times the opportunity has presented itself, I’ve passed up on the main target area and it has proven to be a good thing. Maybe things will change...

Wednesday, August 9, 2006

Today's A Chase Day???

Well once again a good looking chase day has went sour, as the SPC has slowly lowered the risks for the favored area through the day in their outlooks. Started out with a 5% tornado risk and hopes of higher, then to a widespread 5%, then to a 2% due to only a few being possible in the isolated cells during first formation and now a 2% simply becuase the threat isn’t that high. Sad day to waste all of the great parameters once again, just like the past who knows how many chases. There has been some storms today, but so far fairly far west of what the original target was going to be. Not sure if anybody got on the storms, but if they did I’m sure it’s going to be better then what others saw waiting for something in eastern NE/western IA.

As for the thunderstorms, they should increase in activity tonight once again with an influence from the low level jet, once that kicks in and gives the atmosphere the surface influence that it needs they should fire quick. Given such high instability today, there should be plenty left over early tonight, with shear values still high could definately see some severe weather overnight tonight in areas with MCS development. So the rain definately isn’t out of the question, but the great chase seems to be. Beings this was the case this afternoon, I’ve vowed myself to going after lightning tonight. Meaning that I will drive to get in a good location for the lightning strikes tonight in hopes of catching something great for once…

Tuesday, August 8, 2006

Possible Chase Tomorrow...

Well as I stated before about the risk of severe weather making its’ way into the forecast once again, it has and has done so in quite a big way. Despite a warm front being forecasted south of northwest Iowa, north of the front is going to be the best area for severe weather tomorrow. With instability in the extreme category and shear definately supercellular, looks to be another chase day on the northern plains. Although there are still several things that need to be worked out, such as the overnight convection and what cloud debris it could leave for tomorrow and where exactly that warm front will setup at.

Currently with all of the questions, I’m not going to put too much of a forecast into this. I will likely do more of a forecast late tonight once I get a look at the models from tonight and the new Day 1 Outlook from the SPC. Would like to see them go with a 30/30/5 risk, of hail/wind/tornado respectively, especially if we can get the wind/hail hatched and be on the verge of the MOD risk once again. This time, local offices and other chasers as well as models do not seem to have the cap as too much of a concern, but time will tell on that one. All for now, look for another full chase forecast update in around 4 hours or so…

Iowa State vs UNLV GameDay Forecast & Game Notes

In what will be a ritual for the rest of the football season, here is my ‘official’ forecast for the Iowa State vs UNLV football game that is set to kick off just after 6 PM tomorrow night! But first, the Game Notes:

Iowa State (1-0) comes off of a tough earned win against Toledo last Thursday. In what many fans know, the defense allowed nearly 400 yards of passing offense as they simply could not stop them from reaching the endzone. But, ISU gained the win by finally opening up the offense, Meyer to Blythe was the key. Two huge pass/catch combinations between them was what got it won. UNLV (1-0) is coming off of a routing of Idaho State, in which the final score was 54-10. The lack of defense from Idaho State allowed UNLV to open up the run game, something that they normally wouldn’t do. Having 4 rushing touchdowns with 3 different rushers, while only having 1 passing touchdown during the game. This could be different in the Iowa State game, where the rushing defense could be decent, but the pass defense is put to the test as UNLVs’ base offense set is a shotgun spread. Current spread: ISU by 13.5

Forecast: Most of the day should remain cloudy, with only slight peaks at the sun at most throughout the day. This will only allow temperatures to rise up to the 70 degree mark, with a kickoff temperature of 68. With those clouds may come the increasing threat of rain, early forecasts during the mid-week period had chances of rain around 50/50, but latest forecasts have this chance down to 40%. A warm front is expected to remain south of Ames for most of the day, near the IA/MO border keeping most of the best chances south. But, another weather system coming in from the west will be the key factor in moving precip into the area. Latest forecast models have indicated that this system is slowing and thus may hold off reaching the area until Saturday night or later… But, stray showers cannot be ruled out with strong cloudcover, but for now heavy rains do not seem likely. As for the wind, ENE during the day at 5-15 mph switching off to mainly east by game time at just slightly slower speeds. So for the summary… Kickoff: 68 with Cloudy skies, occasional showers possible (especially late game), temperatures falling to the lower 60s by game end. Winds E - ENE at 5-12 mph.

Monday, August 7, 2006

Warmup & Thunderstorms… New Website Look

Well after one strong cold front has made its’ way through the area, we are looking at warming temperatures once again as we go into the week. Currently NWS forecasts are running on the low side by the looks of things, having highs only reaching the mid 80s on Wed/Fri for the highest of the week. Unlike the local met’s as well as the latest long range GFS MOS data. Both of those indicating that temperatures by mid-week should be near 90, I’m willing to split the differences going with forecasts in the range of 86-88 degrees this week. With an increased temperature, also comes increased dewpoints with southerly flow coming onto the plains. This should lead to chances of thunderstorms over the area, which definately looks to be the case with chances starting tomorrow and especially on Wed. night/Thursday. Most likely we will be looking at overnight systems coming in, as afternoon thunderstorms aren’t looking likely with such strong capping in shape over the area. So, look for highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s across Iowa this week, with thunderstorm chances Tuesday night, Wed and Thur. Lows in the lower 60s to lower 70s this week as well across the state, with rainfall amounts quite varied dependent on location of thunderstorms, etc.

As for the site update, website is receiving a new update once again. Several pages have been given the ‘new look’ and a whole new title image should be coming within the next week or two to give it a complete look. Hopefully this will be the look that will stay on the site for some time. The photo pages as well as the chase account pages, as well as the store page are not going to be complete for sometime due to the high amount of work that has to be done on those pages. Keep checking back for more updates and be sure to keep checking out the site for the new look and additions!!

Sunday, August 6, 2006

Yesterday’s ‘Chase’ & New Homepage!

Well the Moderate risk was issued for yesterday and parameters were decent as far as falling into place in the right areas, but once again mother nature decided to screw the chasers over yesterday and only give us two tornado warned storms, with only one of them producing an actual tornado. And of course, that storm was located right on the US/Canada border in a very unfriendly environment for as much as I know. Otherwise several other severe thunderstorms were able to develop in areas of SD/NE, but nothing spectacular came of them in LSR’s or in chase reports as most people had drove clear into northern MN to find themselves on a dissapointing long drive back home. As for me, I wasn’t going to play the northern MN threat, instead watching the areas of southwest MN/northwest IA as parameters were in place just like models have ’sort of’ predicted. But, capping was much stronger than they had predicted and without an outflow boundary or the great lifting support that was expected out ahead of the cold front nothing was produced. So, in turn I had never even left my house yesterday afternoon, just watching and waiting, with a couple of short naps for something to happen…

In other, better news, I have started the redesigning of my webpage! The homepage has the whole new look to it now, as stated in previous topics on how the previous sitebuilder with our previous host was able to pretty much ruin the entire pages on the StormCenterUSA site thanks to its’ encoding. I’ve started up a new design with a new sitebuilder that will be able to be used no matter what host StormCenterUSA is under… So, look for a new look to my pages once again as I take on the title of ‘Storm Chasing & Iowa Weather’!