Just a quick update beings I have had a chance to look over the latest mesoscale analysis from the SPC. The warm front is very well defined across Nebraska and Iowa, with strong frontogenesis also occurring across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. There is fairly high temperatures at 700hPa which is likely leading to some pretty good capping across much of eastern Kansas and into adjacent areas of NE/IA/MO. The vorticity maxima associated with the shortwave is now across central NE/KS and this may provide sufficient forcing to begin forming a cumulus field along the warm front. It would appear that all other factors are sufficient for strong supercellular storms this afternoon, wind shear greater than 40 kts, moderate to strong instability, and the good focus for thunderstorms.
We do have cloud cover and a few showers associated with the shortwave, and these may be a hindrance or a help to convective development. My current virtual chase target would be for Tecumseh, Nebraska...
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