Severe Weather Forecast - June 1

Welcome to June! Our first day will be welcomed with a warm front draped across the state, which will trigger afternoon/evening thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado or two! After the cold front slid through parts of the state last night, the front will continue to slowly progress southward and may even stall out somewhat this afternoon with the warming air mass to its' south. Current forecasts indicate it to position itself near the I-80 corridor by 7 PM tonight.

For those that are along this front, just south/north of the boundary are going to be in a favorable position for thunderstorms this afternoon. Today is one of those warm front days where the instability is all south of the front, but the shear is mainly north. Which means any storms that are able to ride along the boundary to get the best of both sides will be the strongest and most organized of the day, and will be the most likely storms capable of a tornado or two. With flow otherwise parallel to the front, expect storms to eventually congeal into broken lines or clusters capable of large hail and a few wind gusts. Once again expect the thunderstorms to persist into the early nighttime hours with some severe potential.

As the low level jet increases tonight, this will push some elevated instability north of the boundary, likely over much of Iowa. This will also bring the chance for at least elevated storms capable of some large hail given this strong overrunning of moisture across the front in southern/central Iowa. These storms will likely be in clusters or broken lines given the better shear values that are north of the front.

I begin my part-time job this morning, thus am not expecting to chase today along the stalled boundary. Although if any significant changes in the tornado chances occur by early this afternoon I may have to take the quick dive south into the favorable chase area... Another update is possible early this afternoon...