Severe Weather Continues...

BE SURE TO CHECK OUT THE NEW BLOG: WWW.SEVEREPLAINS.COM/BLOG


Severe weather across the Plains states continues today and is expected to continue tomorrow as well. Yesterday's event were well documented and have been all over nearly every national news station and even local news stations last night and today. Tornadoes threatening two well populated areas, Wichita and Oklahoma City, and unfortunately impacting one (Oklahoma City) causing 5 deaths and numerous other injuries. Tornadoes continued across other parts of southern Kansas and throughout Oklahoma, even as far south of the Red River Valley. I'm not going to spend too much time to rehash all of these details as I'm sure everyone has read all about them by now...

Today's storm threat was fairly condition despite having great instability and shear present, due to the strong elevated mixed layer that capped all attempts at convection until ~8PM. Since then we have a few thunderstorms along the warm front in Illinois and into eastern Missouri, as well as a severe/tornadic thunderstorm in northwest Oklahoma. Additional storms should continue to fire and the current areas of thunderstorms expand through the evening and early overnight as a strong low level jet creates good lift across the frontal boundary. For this reason the SPC has issued a new tornado watch that covers areas of Oklahoma and Kansas, with additional watches (likely severe) being needed later tonight. The main threat with storms beyond the 10pm time-frame will be large hail given the steep lapse rates and good elevated instability. These storms will likely move out of Kansas during just before sunrise, and exiting western Missouri by mid-morning. This will likely set the stage for another severe weather event across portions of Kansas and Missouri as well as some adjacent areas (to a lesser extent).

By late afternoon tomorrow a warm front should be situated from near the KS/MO border across northern Missouri and through central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Dew point values in the mid to upper 60s can be expected to the south of this boundary and to the southeast of a cold front that should be positioned from Manhattan, KS southwest through Enid, OK and into north-central Texas. Surface profiles suggest widespread 2000+ J/kg of surface based instability with areas of 3000 J/kg likely occurring in areas where moisture can pool along/near boundaries. A fairly stout elevated mixed layer should keep any initiation at bay until late afternoon and evening hours with northern Missouri likely seeing convection before areas of eastern Kansas due to slightly cooler temperatures aloft. Bulk shear values of 45-65 kts will easily support supercells capable of very large hail throughout the warm sector. Southerly winds at the surface through much of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma will likely limit tornado potential somewhat through those areas, although isolated tornadoes will likely not be ruled out. A higher likelihood of tornadic supercells will exist in areas where surface winds can back (become southeast), likely east of a developing low near the KS/MO/NE intersections. Stronger low level turning of the hodographs will exist here and likely promote a higher risk of tornadoes over northern Missouri and perhaps into northeast Kansas as well. Convection will likely continue to expand into the early overnight hours, into perhaps line segments as the low level jet increases the forward motion and provides more unidirectional shear. This will provide more of a focus for large hail and perhaps damaging winds into the overnight hours for parts of eastern Kansas and areas of northern/central Missouri. Another concern with convection tomorrow evening/overnight will be the potential for flooding given some likelihood for the training of these thunderstorms along/just ahead of the cold front and near the frontal intersection for parts of Kansas and Missouri.

A few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to be possible through the end of the week. However, nothing prominently severe looks to occur at this time...

Read More

April 29 Chse Recap

Took a trip back home for the weekend, thus the late response to recap last Thursday's storm chase which yielded two tornadoes that have both been confirmed by the NWS offices. A complete recap will be posted later today, with images likely being available sometime later...

For more information regarding updates while on the chase last Thursday, please visit the new blog site for Severe Plains:

http://www.severeplains.com/blog

Read More

Severe Weather Potential - April 23

Another day with potentially significant severe weather across both the Central Plains and into the Gulf Coast. Yesterday was quite impressive, with multiple cyclic tornadic storms over eastern Colorado and western Kansas, and several tornadic storms in the Texas Panhandle. Another severe weather setup is available today with a surface low located along the western Kansas/Nebraska borders, a warm front extends eastward across southern Nebraska and into southeast Iowa; and a dryline ahead of the cold front should be positioned over far eastern Kansas by this evening. The dryline should extend well south into the Arklatex region, providing a trigger for development from southern Nebraska to as far as northeast Texas. There is very good agreement that thunderstorms initiating in the Arklatex region will move eastward off of the boundary, but continue to pose a significant threat of severe weather given parcel profiles and strong shear present throughout the overnight. However, in the interest of forecasting sake I am focusing on the northern potential given its' likelihood to affect the Kansas City Metro this evening.

Morning convection is currently on its' way out of eastern Kansas, with cloud cover extending back further west to encompass much of eastern Kansas. This should clear out over the next few hours, allowing for sufficient destabilization ahead of the dryline and south of the warm front. This should yield 2000-2500 J/kg of surface based CAPE, and mixed-layer CAPE nearing 2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear values of 40-50 kts with a vector out of the west-southwest should allow for fairly discrete storm development along the dryline in extreme southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. As these storms move off of the dryline they will continue to encounter a favorable air mass and likely even better low level shear given stronger backing of the winds. A mid-level jet (500 hPa) will enter the area during the evening hours, likely increasing the deep layer sheer values and providing support for additional storm development. Storm motion given the storm relative wind fields should be to the northeast at 20-35 mph, with any right-movement yielding motions of east-northeast around 25 mph. Storms will likely have enough directional shear to rotate, yielding sufficient tornado potential to mention tornadoes possible with any supercells that do develop in this area. In addition to the tornado potential, ample instability will be available for large hail growth.

Storm initiation should occur by 00z (7pm) in eastern Kansas along or just ahead of the dryline, with storms continuing well into the overnight as they move northeast. Based upon current forecasts, thunderstorms should enter the Kansas City metro ~10pm and exit by 2am. Severe weather is likely with any thunderstorm this evening and into the early overnight. I work the evening shift at work, thus will not be chasing or be able to provide updates. `

Read More

A Week of Potential...

A fairly cool and calm weekend under northwest flow aloft, with highs in the 60s and overnight lows into the lower 40s. This 'chilly' weather is coming to an end already with a return of southerly winds at the surface by tomorrow. Temperatures rose into the upper 60s and a few 70s across much of the area today, with a few 50s still prevalent over the High Plains regions where down-slope hasn't aided their warm-up yet. A few small impulses of energy under northwest flow will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Central Plains on Tuesday into Wednesday. And beyond that we'll turn the attention to our next big trough that will come onto the Plains Thursday/Friday and likely become a vertically stacked low by the weekend. This trough and associated thermodynamic features will likely create the potential for a significant severe weather event, perhaps one of the first more prolific tornado producing events of the year.


Have to take at least a quick look at the northwest flow event for Tuesday into Wednesday as that will at least bring the chance of rain. A decent shortwave impulse currently along the Montana/Wyoming border will continue southeast, likely located in southern Nebraska by Tuesday afternoon. This should be enough to create the potential for showers and thunderstorms over south-central Nebraska into north-central Kansas by Tuesday evening. There is at least some elevated instability present, and while not likely being enough for anything severe it will at least bring in the chance of rumbles. Another location of interest will fall along the High Plains where at least modest moisture of upper 40s to near 50 surface dew points combined with ~70 degree temperatures should yield 500-1000 J/kg of surface based instability. This in conjunction with sufficient shear values and lifted indicies, and little inhibition, should warrant the potential for at least strong thunderstorms along western Kansas and the Kansas/Colorado borders tomorrow late afternoon and evening. While these thunderstorms may fade after dark, the low level jet should continue to support more organized showers/thunderstorms over central Kansas, and given upper level support at least showers over eastern Kansas as well. A few lingering showers can be expected Wednesday morning along the Kansas/Missouri borders, otherwise a dry day for the Plains on Wednesday.

This dry day on Wednesday with southerly flow will continue the moisture return to the Plains, aiding in the potential for at least a High Plains thunderstorm event on Thursday. A potent trough will be nearing the four-corners region by Thursday evening, promoting height falls across the High Plains and likely at least the initialization of a surface low along the Lee of the Rockies. Potential exists for both a dryline and warm front becoming pronounced by Thursday evening, promoting convective development along the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma and further north into southwest Kansas and adjacent areas of Colorado. Sufficient shear should be in place given southeast flow at the surface and increasing 500hPa flow from the southwest. At least elevated supercells would appear likely, with any surface based convection definitely yielding severe potential...

Friday is shaping up to be the day of interest as the trough ejects onto the Plains, centered along the eastern Colorado border. A surface low somewhere near/along the Kansas/Nebraska border should also set the stage for both a warm front and dryline intersection. A pronounced dryline should surge eastward during the day Friday, making it well into central Kansas/Oklahoma. Strong moisture return both at the surface and aloft, at least according to models, should yield surface-based instability of at least 1500 J/kg. While shear is expected to be strong given fairly significant wind speeds in both the mid and lower levels, there is some concern based on recent model runs of too much uni-directional flow leading to fast storm motions and the potential for broken lines of convection. Nonetheless, the potential for severe weather is definitely there and likely warrant at least a higher-end slight risk by the SPC. A lot of details will need to be worked out, such as the arrival of a shortwave disturbance and any morning convection and cloud cover. These such details will be discussed later as the event nears and the short-term models can have their opinions voiced on the matter.

Onto the weekend, it would appear that our vertically stacked low pressure system will meander across the Central Plains on both Saturday and Sunday. Given the cold air aloft, thunderstorms do appear possible on Saturday for areas of Kansas/Missouri and perhaps areas just north. Sunday appears to be a day of cloud cover and showers at this moment, which doesn't bode well for my Royals/Twins baseball game that I plan to attend. I'll continue to watch and hope for the push of the low to the east for Sunday and next week. Well into the future, expect the low to move out early next week and lead to at least some short-term ridging of the Plains, promoting a return of warm and moist air. Our next round of thunderstorms and perhaps severe weather will come with the next trough, currently slated by the GFS and ECMWF to come in for the first few days of May.

More details regarding any thunderstorms tomorrow evening will be posted tomorrow along with another look at the potential for the late week severe weather episode.

Read More

Rain & Return of Seasonable Weather

A cold front has pushed through a majority of the Central Plains over the past 24 hours, leaving us with more of a normal air mass for early April. Rainfall during the overnight was fairly heavy across parts of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, but decreased dramatically as it entered the Kansas City Metro. The 24-hour precipitation totals show this quite well:

St. Joseph - 0.59"
Kansas City Intl - 0.36"
Johnson Co. Exec - 0.06"
Olathe Airport - 0.04"
Lee's Summitt - 0.03"


We've cleared the skies out this evening, and with light northerly winds across the area will likely see some very crisp overnight lows tonight and for the next few nights as a high pressure system settles over the region. High temperatures over the weekend will be more typical for this time of the year, in the mid 60s for the Kansas City Metro. Into next week expect to see the high temperatures slowly moderate into the lower 70s, and lows should increase with the slow but sure increase in moisture and the exit of the high pressure center.

The next storm system for the Central Plains will likely come late next week as a cutoff low pressure system is forecast to finally push onto the Plains. There will likely be a limited severe weather threat as the system makes its' way across the Plains states given its' dynamic qualities. However, moisture return is a large question at this point and thus the quality of thermodynamics that this system has to work with will likely be its' limiting factor. Nonetheless it's the next thing in sight and will be watched as it comes onshore early next week and stalls along the West Coast.

Enjoy the sunny and more seasonable weekend!

Read More

A Round of Rain...

Several days of warm and sunny weather has most people spoiled into thinking summer is almost here already!  But, don't think winter has gone too far as there is plenty of winter weather still ongoing in some areas of the Rockies, including Montana and Wyoming where up to a foot of snow was falling yesterday on the backside of a strong dynamic upper level system that was also responsible for strong and even severe thunderstorms in the western Dakotas, western Nebraska and along the Colorado/Kansas border.  This upper level system was also the culprit to some severe thunderstorms on Monday across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota.  The upper level low will be pushed eastward over the next couple of days, allowing a cold front to push southward through the Plains states on Thursday and Friday.  With the meager moisture in place and the lack of dynamics aloft, any thunderstorms along the cold front should be general thunderstorms with perhaps a few marginal severe hail reports.

Today's showers and thunderstorm chances along the front extend from northern Minnesota/Wisconsin southwestward through Iowa, Nebraska and into western Kansas.  Showers and thunderstorms will move into southern Wisconsin and continue through Iowa/Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday as the cold front beings its' push south.  Finally we'll see the showers and thunderstorms make their way into the Midwest and areas of Missouri through the day on Friday.  Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected along western Oklahoma and Texas both today and tomorrow as a weak dryline will continue to focus for some additional development.  Some cooler continental air will follow the front, with high temperatures being knocked back down into the 60s here in Kansas City and more seasonable temperatures for most of the Plains.

For the long range we'll see a brief ridge build into the central US, that will continue into early next week.  Long range models have made a fairly drastic change in the past few runs compared to what was earlier depicted as a fairly quiet weather pattern now indicates that a strong storm system may move through the Plains states for mid-to-late week next week.  While this system may have the strong dynamics, there will likely be a question of how much moisture is in place even by then thanks to the ridge that will also affect the Gulf and its' attempt to return moisture to the Plains.  Of course this potential system is quite a ways out and there won't be much more thoughts on this until it nears a bit closer.

Read More

Severe Weather Recap - April 4-6

The large trough and associated low pressure system and other surface features that had been in the eyes of chasers for nearly a week before even coming onshore has come and gone over the Plains. This past Sunday (April 4) through Tuesday (April 6) all had the potential to be some of the best days of chasing thus far for 2010. Now I realize given the way the early season (January-March) have turned out this isn't saying a whole lot, but comparatively many chasers were quite excited about the prospects. There were obviously some concerns with the setups on each day, as it is often hard to find a day that doesn't have some sort of concern. The lack of upper level support for Sunday and Monday were hard to miss, and with such a stout elevated mixed layer (EML) this allowed for a pretty good lack of significant storms until during/after sunset. The upper level support did arrive for Tuesday, but winds became largely unidirectional for most areas with only a narrow axis of good directional shear along the warm front in Iowa. The moisture concern which was largely discussed didn't show itself at the surface, but given the impressive EML that was in place the moisture just wasn't deep enough in my opinion. I could go on with a few more concerns and of course mention the positives that were in place for the events, but we'll continue on into what actually occurred each day.

In the end I can somewhat luckily say that I had to work throughout all three potential chase days, thus was not active in chasing any of the storms. I think it is fairly safe to say though that if I wasn't working that I would have likely favored going chasing for at least 1 or 2 of the days.

Sunday will actually be credited with the only tornado reports on the Plains, although not yet confirmed to my knowledge by the Kansas City or St. Louis NWS offices. (Note: There was a tornado report on Monday 4/5 in western Illinois) These tornado reports came from a rather impressive supercell that began its' life ~40 miles northeast of Kansas City and continued into western Illinois during the early overnight hours. A total of 4 tornado reports came from this storm as it passed through Howard, Randolph & Audrain counties between 7pm and 8:15pm. This storm also produced some of the largest hail reports (2.5" in diameter) and damaging winds. The storm was fairly photogenic, although any tornadoes were likely hidden within shrouds of rain. The worst part of this storm was likely its' speed (45 mph) and location within the hilly/winding roads of central Missouri. There were additional storms across parts of northern Oklahoma that came after dark and produced some large hail and damaging winds, but nothing of tornadic nature and largely photogenic.

Monday and another day featuring a warm front draped along the Iowa/Missouri borders and then a dryline play in Kansas/Oklahoma. No tornado reports and no significant severe weather to speak of out of the entire day/night with a majority of storms occurring across southern/central Iowa and only producing 1.0-1.75" diameter hail and some wind gusts of 60-70 mph. This will largely go down as a bust for most people as the only storms were well out of any target area by chasers.

Tuesday was turning out to be the day, with upper level support finally arriving and significant surface moisture still in place the hopes were high for most people. The SPC had targeted the warm front with a 10% tornado risk and kept the conditional hope of 5% tornado risk for the remainder of the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma. Storms did initiate along the dryline/pre-frontal trough and the warm front in Iowa; however once again there were no tornadoes to speak of. Several tornado warnings were issued in Iowa, with there being some impressive damage that has been surveyed to be damaging straight-line winds of 95-105 mph! Other reports of damaging winds and large hail occurred across eastern Kansas and parts of Oklahoma, although storm motions of 45 mph were a disadvantage along with largely linear storm mode with embedded supercells over Kansas. The storms over Oklahoma came after dark once again given the strong inhibition (EML) that continued to be in place. Although not a lot of reports from chasers have came in regarding the storms on Tuesday, I think it'll be hard to get any highly photogenic storms out of what occurred.

With what is likely one of the worst starts in regards to tornadoes in several years, the largely linear and high precipitation storms thus far haven't produced anything amazing to my knowledge. The Kansas City metro has been off to a pretty good start in regards to just severe/strong thunderstorms with several days of morning and afternoon convection with some marginal hail and strong winds. Even today we managed to pull off a severe thunderstorm and 1.75" hail in Platte County with little instability and a surface observation of 58/44. Can't say I'm dissapointed in hearing the thunder multiple times thus far, and I'll look forward to warmer temperatures and an eventual return to slower moving and more discrete storms later in the Spring!

Now all eyes can turn to the next trough to enter the Plains, which should come sometime early next week! In the meantime, we'll focus on sunny skies and warming temperatures for Kansas City.

Read More

Severe Weather - Apr. 5

A recap of any severe weather will likely be posted once this system has exited the Plains entirely, as a round of severe/tornadic thunderstorms occurred yesterday afternoon/evening and additional rounds of thunderstorms are occurring this morning with more expected this afternoon.

Currently, elevated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail have been ongoing across parts of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, especially near the Kansas City Metro area.  A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for portions of the states through Noon today.  These storms are being fed by a strong southerly low level jet that continues to push moisture northward and will begin to push a warm front to the north today, likely situating near the Iowa/Missouri border this afternoon. In addition to the warm front, a dryline will be situated across central Kanas southward into Oklahoma which may be another focus for thunderstorm development.  Thunderstorm development along both frontal boundaries is somewhat in question due to a substantial capping inversion and elevated mixed-layer that will overspread the Plains states. 

Despite this, thunderstorm development should occur along the warm front this evening (7-9pm).  Given moderate instability and sufficient deep layer shear, supercells will be likely capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.  Storms should move along the warm front, continuing to be capable of all modes of severe weather through the evening and into the early overnight.  Additional storms will continue along the warm front into Illinois and other portions of the Midwest during the overnight hours continuing the severe weather threat of mainly damaging winds and large hail, although a tornado or two is still likely with any storms that continue along the warm front.

Development along the dryline across central Kansas into Oklahoma is very conditional given the substantial elevated mixed-layer and associated temperature inversion in the lower levels.  Strong instability should be present along/just ahead of the dryline this afternoon, however without continued convergence along the boundary there may not be sufficient lift for development of thunderstorms.  If an area of enhanced convergence can occur along the dryline and thunderstorm development can occur, there is no doubt that supercell(s) would be likely.  Once again all modes of severe weather will be likely with strong deep layer shear resulting in the potential for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Essentially a conditional, but very volatile severe weather setup today across parts of central Kansas, extreme southeast Nebraska, extreme southern Iowa and extreme northern Missouri.  The potential is there for a very strong supercell capable of significant hail, winds, and tornadoes.  I'm sure there will be plenty of storm chasers out to keep track of the situation live.  I once again am working the evening shift, thus will not be chasing this event (I keep telling myself it is only early April, plenty more opportunities).

Read More

April 2 Severe Weather

Just a quick post about the impressive line of thunderstorms that evolved through the overnight last night arriving in the Kansas City metro this morning.  As it was approaching the metro the storms organized into several line segments capable of producing damaging winds, and it did so throughout the Kansas City Metro and off to the northeast into south-central Iowa even.  Reports from the metro areas indicated widespread swaths of 60-70 mph winds with a few areas likely seeing close to 80 mph gusts given the damage.  Tree damage and damage to power poles were the main reports, other loose objects such as trampolines were also seen thrown into trees.  At least five tractor trailers were tipped over due to these heavy winds, and just north of the Metro on I-29 saw significant roof damage to a storage barn.  Additional details on the damage may be posted if any NWS office releases any special news statement.  To view each of the storm reports received in associated with this cold front from the overnight and into early this afternoon please see the link below:

Map of Storm Reports from 12AM - 2PM on April 2, 2010

Read More

Warm Temperatures... Thunderstorms by Friday!

There has been much discussion in the chase community about the upcoming trough and its' associated features and its' severe weather potential. This discussion has been ongoing since the trough was a gleam in the GFS way back at 300+ hours. This would appear to be the first trough in perhaps many that is signaling the idea of switching out of winter and into a spring pattern. This pattern change is welcomed in such a year that thus far has been terribly slow in severe weather per SPC yearly climatology. Many questions remain about this first trough and still being 3.5 days as of this mornings (12z) model run this isn't necessarily unusual. I do hope that by tomorrow evening the models were at least begin to agree upon the more synoptic features of the event. Many questions have been brought forth regarding this Friday and while a few of them will likely not be answered until the morning of, we can at least speculate to what the results will be given certain conditions.

Moisture was an initial concern, and while the moisture is not expected to be significant there would still appear to be sufficient surface and mixed-layer moisture available for severe weather given the strong dynamics. Wind shear was a concern and still is a large concern given model forecasts of south-southwest winds from 850hPa through 500hPa. Latest trends have at least backed surface winds to a southeast direction during the afternoon Friday, which is dramatically helping the 0-1km shear values. However, given the highly uniform wind speeds without some additional turning in the 850-700hPa layer the surface winds may not be much of a factor. Instability has become somewhat of an issue given such dynamic cooling takes place ahead of the trough that there will not be a sufficient cap to allow for clear skies into the afternoon. A resulting precipitation/cloud shield in conjunction with warm temperatures ~800hPa would appear to be limiting the overall instability. This last detail is a question that may not be answered until the morning of, given the highly questionable model forecast cloud cover and precipitation. Nonetheless with all of the questions abound it would still appear that a severe weather event may likely unfold across the Southern Plains and perhaps even parts of the Central Plains. There is no doubt that with such a slow season ongoing and the location of the setup that many chasers will be out regardless.

In the meantime it is time to enjoy some very warm weather! High temperatures today ranged from the lower 70s along the Mississippi to the mid 80s along the western High Plains. Warm air and moisture will continue to stream northward as south winds continue to be sustained 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph both Wednesday and Thursday. Expect temperatures tomorrow to be a few degrees warmer than today, and Thursday's high once again be well above normal for most areas.

Additional updates will be likely tomorrow and through the remainder of the week in regards to the upcoming potential for severe weather.

Read More

March 20 Winter Storm Video

I finished a quick edit of my video I captured yesterday both in the early morning and during the late morning/early afternoon hours around the Kansas City area.  You can find it available on YouTube and YouTube HD at the following url:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUtv6DlGJns


Or it is embedded below for you view here:

Read More

Winter Storm: Mar. 19/20 Recap

A long duration and dynamic winter storm struck portions of the Central and Southern Plains this past weekend, bringing with it nearly a foot of snow for parts of Kansas and Missouri. While snowfall did fall at a moderate to heavy intensity at times, the main culprit for the significant snowfall amounts was the long duration of the snowfall.  To think, the ground was so warm from the previous two days of sunny and 60s that there was a portion of the snow that melted instead of accumulating.  The first round of snow came with post-frontal precipitation across parts of Iowa, Nebraska and then into Kansas and Missouri during Friday evening and early overnight. As the early nighttime hours progressed, the first band of snow was enhanced by the developing upper level low to the south across Oklahoma/Texas resulting in increased coverage and intensities across Kansas and Missouri.  There were even reports of thundersnow with lightning strikes across parts of northeast Kansas around the Midnight time frame.

A short break in the snow for Kansas City came during the morning hours on Saturday, as the post-frontal precipitation had moved into central Missouri.  The low pressure system both in the lower and mid levels quickly deepened during the day, causing a large swath of deformation snow to occur over parts of eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  This snowfall came down long and steady and caused a majority of the accumulations over the Southern Plains and for areas south of I70 in Kansas and Missouri.  A very tight temperature gradient still existed across central/western Missouri which during the day on Saturday which kept the precipitation as rain over many areas including Springfield, Jefferson City, and especially St. Louis (which never saw any snow).  As the sun set on Saturday evening, a battle between the air masses resumed in which a cooling air mass due to the setting sun was being warmed by the strong southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system. This did allow some areas to see quick accumulations of snowfall, such as Springfield as the air mass cooled quick enough just before the warm air arrived.  Reports were also received of both sleet and ice accumulations where the air mass wasn't quite cold enough for snow at the lower levels.

For a full look at your local area's snowfall amounts as well as a write up from a few of the NWS offices please select one of the links below.  Additional links may be added as they become available.

Kansas City NWS -  Snowfall Maps & Recap
Wichita NWS - Snowfall Map
Springfield NWS - Snowfall Map 

Read More

Where's the Sun?!?

We've been going the past several days with mornings' filled with low level clouds and high moisture values leading to sprinkles and mist. Today is no exception, and it looks to continue tomorrow morning as well.  Yesterday during the late afternoon hours we were able to see the sunshine in Kansas City as the low level stratus finally cleared out, but the clouds made their return during the overnight.

A disturbance is going to slide north to south across the Northern Plains today, and over along the Missouri/Kansas border overnight tonight arriving into the Southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much for dynamics, and even less in regards to moisture to use for precipitation. This means we'll mainly see the cloud cover continuing, with a few rounds of sprinkles or light showers across  western Iowa, and Western Missouri. This will be out of the area by Wednesday morning, and we should dry out and clear out by Wednesday evening.  The clear skies will continue into Thursday and through most of Friday before out next storm system will bring in the next round of clouds and definitely a round of heaviest precipitation for the Central Plains.

This storm system for Friday and into the weekend is something to keep an eye on, as of yesterday morning it was the operational GFS that was the outlier showing a decent storm system. However, several models by the afternoon hours were showing a trend towards the operational GFS solution and the last 4 runs of the operational GFS have all continued with a similar solution. The surprising and questionable solution at this point is the amounts of snowfall that is forecasted with the operational GFS on the cold side of the system. Just for humor, last nights 00z operational GFS showed a surface low tracking along southern Kansas/Missouri leading to a swath of snow across western and central Kansas, into northeast Kansas and into northwest Missouri. With ~18" of snow in Russell as the maximum, but a solid swath of 6-10" across the remainder of the locations named above. For the Kansas City Metro this meant a gradient of 1-8" from south-to-north across the metro area.  Now keep in mind that I am not saying that this is going to be correct, as there is a lot of questions regarding the track and amount of cold air that can influx into the region. Also the ground temperatures are going to be quite warm after seeing temperatures near the 60 degree mark on Friday, thus if snow did fall how much of it would melt trying to get the surface temperature down to the freezing mark.  I'll continue to update this week as we near this storm system, the first one of Spring that has the potential to give us snow!!

Read More

Thunderstorms to Snow?!?

Numerous clusters of thunderstorms continue across portions of the Central and Southern Plains tonight, with a continued risk of a few severe/tornadic storms through the early overnight. The tornadic threat today across much of the risk area in Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri was hindered by shallow moisture layer. Which when subjected to continued mixing during the afternoon led to marginal dew points in the 40s for most areas, and even meager dew point depressions. With the addition of early showers and cloud cover to areas just ahead of the low pressure system, little instability, especially in the lower levels, was present to aid in the development of strong convection. Nonetheless convection was able to fire, especially just ahead of the scattered showers/sprinkles in extreme northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri during the evening. Marginally severe hail and some rotation was noted on the stronger cells, and although tornadoes were reported thus far no damage reports have been received.

This current storm system is sliding to the north and will become vertically stacked over Iowa. Leading to continued wrap-around moisture and thus ongoing scattered showers through the day on Friday. Cold air advection will also be present to the west and southwest of the vertically stacked low, thus conditions may become favorable for at least a wintery mix of precipitation during the overnight Thursday into Friday for parts of northern Kansas and Missouri. Areas including the Kansas City Metro may see a few hours of a rain/snow mix early Friday, although with current surface temperatures there will not likely be any accumulation. Areas of northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri and southeast Nebraska and adjacent areas of extreme southwest Iowa may not be quite as lucky with snowfall becoming heavy enough for accumulations at least on grassy surfaces. Models are having a hard time depicting the magnitude of cold air and its' association with any lift to aid in snowflake development, in addition to warm surface temperatures will lead to models likely overestimating the accumulated snowfall.

Temperatures a little below average through the weekend, but we'll at least start to dry off after a decent amount of spring rainfall. The other story to watch through the weekend will by the flooding on several rivers in the Northern and Central Plains. Making matters worse in a high number of ice jams that are also occurring thanks to rapid melting. These ice jams can create rapidly rising waters and are very hard to forecast, thus anyone in flood prone areas should pay close attention to water levels through the weekend and beyond.

Got to hear a few rumbles of thunder in Kansas City, nothing overly impressive but it was a nice sound to hear. Wait and see about a few snowflakes and then hopefully get back on track towards spring!!

Read More

Ahhh... Sunshine!!

Another bright and sunshine filled day today, with surface winds becoming southerly in the afternoon to aid in our warming temperatures. Highs today were widely in the 50s for areas without snow cover, even well into the 40s for those on the southern portions of the snowpack. Areas further north across Iowa were still held into the 30s due to the large snow pack in their area, plus the surrounding. Nonetheless the warm air temperature and unabated sun did allow for melting which showed up as some dense fog during the morning hours. We'll look for another day of warming temperatures and clear skies for a majority of the Central Plains tomorrow, just ahead of a disturbance that will be developing in the lee of the Rockies.

This upper level system is a fairly compact, but strong system that will bring a good chance of rain and even isolated thunderstorms to portions of the central Plains. Latest model tracks have continued the trend of a cut-off low pressure system moving east/northeast from eastern Colorado into central Nebraska Friday night, then slowly meandering eastward across Iowa through Saturday night. This will lead to a good chance of rain showers for areas north of I70 in both Kansas and Missouri and as far north as the Dakota borders and central Minnesota. Most of this precipitation should fall as rain, however, as the upper level low continues to deepend and cool areas north of Highway 30 in northeast Nebraska and Iowa as well as adjacent areas of southeast South Dakota and southern Minnesota may be able to see some mixed precipitation and snowfall. The wintery precipitation will have its' best chance late Saturday through early Sunday with accumulations remaining minimal for most areas. Decent amounts of rain are possible for the remainder of the area, including those that have several inches of water frozen in their snowpacks. This will amount to some rapid rises in rivers over the weekend and may in turn cause flooding concerns for areas of Iowa and places downstream.

Many people are still watching the stronger system for early next week, with many eyes on it for the first severe weather event for the Plains states. Moisture return is weak thus far, but there is still several days of warming and moistening to go for many areas of the southern Plains. The latest GFS and its' ensembles have taken the further south track today with the center of the 500hPa low tracking along the Oklahoma/Kansas border into Arkansas on Tuesday. This is seemingly becoming the favorite solution of the models, at least until the disturbance comes ashore and the models actually get a good look at its' dynamics. Nonetheless, expect rain to dominate the forecast for the southern and central Plains for early next week. With the best chance of thunder coming for areas of Texas and Oklahoma, however areas of Kansas/Missouri can't rule out the thunder given intense lapse rates under the closed low aloft. One of the best highlights with this southern track is that there is really no cold air to be advected south, thus we'll keep temperatures near normal for most of next week. Could we be looking at a sign that spring may actually be arriving?!?

An additional update is possible tomorrow, however a 3-day weekend and continued warm weather will hopefully keep me busy with other things!

Read More

Quiet Weather... For Now

Quiet weather continued through the weekend, with clear skies dominating the forecast. These clear skies allowed temperatures to moderate well over the weekend, with high temperatures into the 40s across the areas with little to no snow-pack and into the upper 20s and near 30 for those that do. The clear skies also gave way to cool overnight temperatures given ample variational cooling with the light winds. Conditions like this will continue for much of the week with a high pressure system centered over the Northern Plains.

A storm system will pass through the Southern Plains on Monday, and continue into the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Behind this we will see a large scale ridge build into the Plains for midweek, allowing for another warm-up with temperatures likely reaching normal or perhaps even a few readings of above normal temperatures for Thursday/Friday! A quick wave will move across the Rockies on Friday and begin to flatten this ridge for the beginning of the weekend. This quick moving system will have enough energy that it may bring with it the chance of precipitation for areas of the Plains. At this time there is significant differences in the track and speed of the associated vorticity maximum and thus confidence is not very high to mention any areas or times for precipitation.

Behind this initial wave comes a system that has been well advertised by both the GFS and ECMWF for the past several days. A very strong upper level wave associated with great dynamics throughout its' lifetime as it crosses over the Plains and moves into the Great Lakes region. Details regarding position and exact timing are of course in question, given the near 60 hour difference in timing the GFS and ECMWF currently have. The track is a little more agreeable between the two models, given a low developing over the lee of the Rockies in Colorado and tracking eastward into KS/NE seems probable, with a quick ejection northwest into the Great Lakes region once reaching the Missouri River thanks to a strong jet maximum in the upper levels. This system has the potential to be one of the first severe weather producers given its' good dynamics and likely thermodynamics (50s for temperatures & dew points). Although the best bet would be a cold core situation close to the low pressure system. Other than the potential for severe weather, conditions to the northwest of the low center would likely endure blizzard conditions for at least a period of time. Moisture will be ample in addition to strong dynamics and deepening surface low, thus a strong deformation zone is likely. Given the tight pressure gradient, surface winds sustained above 30 mph would also appear likely with even higher gusts. Once again the exact location and timing are definite questions, but it does appear favorable for a significant storm system for the Plains in the March 8-11 time frame. Additional updates through the week will likely reference this storm for a majority of the discussion.

Read More

Cold Air...

Just a short update tonight as the weather is extremely quiet for a majority of the Plains through the remainder of the week. Cold temperatures was the story this morning, with a record low set at St. Joseph, MO (-2) and a record low tied at Kansas City International (2). Single digits were prominent over much of the Northern Plains, with teens over the Central Plains this morning. Below zero lows were common, with teens below zero for areas of Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas. The lows tonight won't be too much warmer, with many single digits and below zero readings expected.

Feb. 24 Morning Low Temperatures

Looking ahead through the rest of the week, we'll slowly begin to warm-up through the weekend, although temperatures will remain below normal to well below normal for many areas of the Plains. A storm system will intensify on Thursday over the southern Plains, leading to areas of snow for southern Kansas and Oklahoma. The low pressure system associated with the snowfall will quickly move southeast on Thursday night and Friday, leaving areas of the southern Plains and perhaps even the lower Mississippi Valley under a blanket of snow.

With all of the precipitation remaining south, we'll continue to see fairly clear skies. The sun is beginning to feel pretty warm though, which is hopefully a sign that if we can begin to get rid of some of the snow that is currently covering the Plains that we can at least begin to see normal temperatures! Next update is expected on Saturday for a look at next week!

Read More

Feb. 21/22 Recap & A Look Ahead

The storm system this past weekend brought a mix of precipitation types to parts of the central Plains. Areas of flooding occurred and are ongoing due to substantial rainfall amounts across central Missouri this past weekend. An area from south-central Kansas into the Kansas City Metro saw ice accumulations of a few tenths to nearly a half-inch in a few isolated areas. Sleet was also a common precipitation type over the weekend, with several roadways in eastern Kansas and western Missouri becoming hazardous with slush accumulations of a half-inch or greater. And lastly there was snow, varying from around an inch on the south side of the Kansas City Metro and across I70 in Missouri to just an inch or so over parts of southern Iowa. In between however, a swath of 6-10 inches covered areas of northern Missouri with isolated amounts nearing 12 inches. Strong northwest winds allowed for blowing and drifting of the snow as well, creating large drifts in open areas and making travel impossible in some areas through the day on Sunday. To view all of the reports that came in from the region, check out the link posted below:

http://www.severeplains.com/snowfall_022210.html


To view other reports from the region, check your local NWS office homepage. The NWS in Kansas City has also provided a brief summary of the events that occurred in the metro area in regards to precipitation types. This includes a vertical cross-section image that shows the warm layer just above the surface that was responsible for the freezing rain over the southern metro area. The ongoing snow continues to make its' way into the record books, with a record daily snowfall at Kansas City International. With rounds of snowfall in Des Moines on Friday, they continued to increase their snow depth and continue to break records for the most consecutive and non-consecutive days with specific snow depth amounts. Plenty of other records are out there being broken as well, with plenty more likely to fall as the winter isn't about to give in to Spring.

Looking ahead for the remainder of the week, a cold front will sweep through the Plains tomorrow bringing with it the chance of flurries and some light snow mainly Iowa and eastern Missouri. Accumulations are expected to be little to none across the region due to limited moisture and meager lift along the boundary. The cold front passage will bring a reinforcement of cold air that will keep us well below normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system on Friday will bring the chance of precipitation to areas of the southern Plains, will have to watch and see how far north the precip chances can make it for Friday.

Read More

Winter Storm: Feb. 14 Recap

Snowfall over the weekend held a few surprises, the biggest coming with a 'snow squall' in the Kansas City area that led to multiple pileups on interstates within the metro. These snow squalls were caused by strong lapse rates and elevated instability that was collocated with the best dendritic growth zone (-10 to -20C). This allowed for rapid snowfall associated with strong northwest winds, creating near-zero visibility for a short period (~15 minutes) across several areas near the Kansas City metro. For a little more background and a few graphics, check out the link below from Kansas City NWS and for a more meteorological review check out the blog post by Jon Davies:

Kansas City Valentine's Day Snow Squall

Jon Davies Snow Squall Blog Post


The heaviest bands of snowfall occurred across parts of eastern Nebraska, western/central Iowa and into northeast Missouri and other areas along the Mississippi River. The upper level low made its' turn east and allowed the heaviest snowfall to occur into parts of Illinois and Indiana. A few maps of the snowfall totals from this weekend are also posted below:

Omaha NWS Sunday Snowfall Image

St. Louis NWS Sunday-Monday Snowfall Image

Springfield NWS Regional Snowfall Map

Read More

Winter Storm: Feb. 7/8 Recap

Snowfall was heaviest over parts of eastern Minnesota and central/eastern Iowa where as much as 12" fell over the span of 48 hours. You can push back the span even further and see values increase to nearly 18" as the snow began over parts of the Plains well before the upper low became nearly stationary during the day yesterday. Currently only flurries and a few light snow showers are left across parts of the Plains, as the upper level low has begun its' trek into the Ohio Valley and eventually the east coast where it will once again dump several inches of snow. The upper low and its' associated features were an interesting sight to watch, as noted by the previous update that featured a surface plot of temperatures. What could be classified as a mesoscale high pressure system essentially formed along the upper level low and allowed clear skies and calm winds to drop temperatures dramatically over a short period of time last night and into this morning across parts of Iowa and Missouri. Strong northwest winds hampered travel conditions yesterday and much of today across the Plains, as blowing and drifting snow created slick road conditions. Even with areas simply receiving flurries and light snow the winds allowed for a drop in visibility and created some spotty areas of snow covered roads.

With the storm on its' decline for the Plains, several National Weather Service offices have issued their summaries of snowfall totals. They are listed below:

Minneapolis NWS Snowfall Map

Des Moines & Omaha may be added if available

Kansas City NWS Snowfall Map

St. Louis NWS Snowfall Map

Springfield NWS Snowfall Map

Read More