Fall Photography at Ledges State Park

Finished getting all of my photos uploaded this morning. Came away with a few good ones, didn't turn out as great as I thought it would have. I'm mainly going to blame this on the time of day I took quite a few of the shots, the bright afternoon sun definitely is not a friend when doing landscape pictures. Either way, a total of 8 pictures have been added to my Ledges Gallery Page.

Check out the Gallery

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Fall Photography

Got out Saturday afternoon to Ledges State park near Luther or Boone, IA; quite a few people enjoying the day out there from families to other ISU students. Took well over 100 picture throughout the 3+ hours I spent roaming the trails and roadways, I think I walked at least 3 miles up and down the slopes and along several paths. I've looked through all of the pictures and should be some nice ones that captured the fall colors out there. Surprisingly, only about a quarter of the trees were even starting too turn by my estimates. Nonetheless some great shots of yellow, orange and red compared to the green that was still left on a majority of trees. I'll be getting through the rest of the pictures tomorrow as far as resizing, etc...

For now here is my likely favorite, I've always wanted to do the moving water effect and have a few dozen of them from the trip yesterday. I'll be posting the rest of my favorites as I get them converted and resized.

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Weekend Severe Weather

Well as you might have been able to tell with the lack of posts and excitement, the severe weather chances for the weekend have pretty much went to crap. The SPC has gotten rid of any chances for Sunday & Monday over the plains states. Today still has a slight risk out for mainly areas of the Dakotas and Nebraska, but this threat is quite minimal with only a isolated large hail or damaging wind expected.

Looking out there in the models, seems like a ridge will actually setup over the plains states. Leaving us with dry weather for the remainder of the week once this system passes through. The ridge does look to break down by next weekend, but the next severe weather event may be a while by the looks of things.

Just before this next system hits us though, I'm heading out for some early Fall photography. I'll likely update the blog tomorrow or sometime next week with the pictures that I get today...

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Svr Wx & Chase (10/5 - 10/8) -- Update #2

Friday Oct. 5, 10:15 AM: Well the severe threat today will be hampered by the strong capping that is overtaking the northern plains this afternoon. Early thunderstorms and cloudcover are working through central Iowa into areas of eastern MN and Wisconsin this morning. The warm front will be focused over areas of central Minnesota, where the best threat for severe weather does still exist. However, with such a large capping inversion expected over the areas near and to the south of the warm front the only thunderstorms that may get going will be well north of the front. The areas north of the front, although with decent shear values will not have near the instability that will be warranted to maintain some of the stronger severe thunderstorms that seemed possible earlier in the week. If for some reason we are able to break the cap nearer to the warm frontal boundary or just to the south of it, shear values as well as instability could support a substantial threat for large hail and tornadoes. However, with such a large cap expected, that threat is quite minimal thus far and is indicated by the latest SPC day 1 outlook that keeps only minimal probabilities over the area.

Tomorrow's severe weather threat also looks to be limited by the substantially warm air in place ahead of the trough and overall system that will be moving into the plains. A weak low pressure system is likely to form during the day tomorrow, with a cold front drapped to the south through areas of the western high plains. Ahead of this cold front will see warm temperatures not only at the mid-levels, but even higher at 500mb that will weaken even the instability factor for severe thunderstorms. Without substantial instability, expect the cap to hold in the warm sector for the day tomorrow. However, with the trough digging past the Rockies it will have the potential to ignite thunderstorms along it. These thunderstorms will mainly exist behind the cold front however, meaning the best threat seems to be a large hail risk with elevated storms.

Sunday's threat also seems to be on the downfall with the models deciding to disagree with eachother in the strength and position of the trough. Despite the disagreemnt there, the agreement between them does indicate that the day will be a likely mess of convection all over the plains states. A new low pressure system likely to form over some portion of KS/NE during the morning, leading to a nearly stationary boundary over the northern plains states and a cold front, possible dryline to the south over KS/OK and into the Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms likely to be ongoing around the area of low pressure and along the stationary boundary in the northern plains. Some indications pose that thunderstorms will exist ahead of the front in the central/southern plains as well during the afternoon hours. All of this convection is likely to lead to less instability and overall less threat for severe weather over the plains states. SPC concurs with these, as they have only introduced minimal probabilities for the day over the central/southern plains. All in all it doesn't look like this weekend will be as good as an event as previous indications were pointing towards...

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Svr Wx & Chase (10/5 - 10/8) -- Update #1

Thursday Oct. 3 Update, 10:00 AM: Didn't get a chance to view last nights' model runs so I'm taking the time to do that this morning before all of the 12z runs of the GFS/NAM are in. Tonight and Tomorrow are both under risks for severe weather over the northern plains, mainly northwest Iowa and then points northward as a fairly strong warm front begins to take shape wit the aid of strong low level winds from the south. Those winds will pick up tonight and likely develop elevated storms along it, possibilities of large hail are the main threat with those storms. Areas of northern Iowa and southern MN as well as extreme areas of eastern SD seem to be in the best location for those. The storms will likely continue into the day on Friday as the warm front lifts further to the north, potentially hampering some of the potential for severe weather on Friday evening. However the strengthening low in SD and warm front over northern SD and into MN will be the focus for potentially significant severe weather nonetheless. The areas of SD and west-central MN should be out of the clouds and allow significant warming, creating ample instability. Shear will also be there along the sharp warm front and low pressure system, the only negative will likely be the warm temperatures that create a cap over the area. If storms can push through that though, expect the potential for some large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. The SPC has kept wording in their discussion on how some strong tornadoes may occur, so this deserves to be watched. I'm tied up for Friday night, so no chasing will take place despite the urge to take the chance...

Saturdays' threat is now being displayed fairly well by the models from last night, the NAM, GFS & ECMWF all have the trough position in a fairly consistent area. The strength is just slight stronger on the NAM than the others, but nothing tremendously different. The threat for Saturday though doesn't look tremendous, no surface low pressure system really has occurred along the trough that is beginning to push onto the plains. This is going to kind of spread the focus out to be along the stationary or quasi-stationary front over the Dakotas southward through Kansas. Looking like more of a hail/wind event with more broken line or lines of storms than individual cells. Things could change, but for now it looks like I'll enjoy the wonderful weekend weather here in Iowa.

Sunday however from last nights' runs looks like it could be quite the show if things fall together right. Both the GFS & ECMWF have similar upper level lows in terms of strength and position, GFS slightly south. The low pressure system begins to stack a bit, and is definitely cutoff even by Sunday evening over western/central NE. Plenty of shear to go along with that, however several negatives jump into my mind currently. The lack of a cap near the low which may lead to numerous clouds/showers before the evening and thus ruin some of the instability. If we can have a good warm sector though, the areas of eastern NE/eastern KS are definitely within an area that could have some very nice severe weather. This day is open to chasing with a couple others, so it'll be a day of interest as well.

The remainder of the week for this system is still somewhat up in the air, as the low becomes stacked and is likely to slowly meander across the rest of the plains state on Monday & Tuesday. There may be some severe threat still with the system, but it's hard to say how severe and what type of severe weather may occur. These days aren't likely to have me heading out anywhere unless it is right around Ames, thus not too concerned about the work week forecast.

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Latter Week Forecast -- Severe Weather Possibilities

To start off, the Des Moines NWS and the Quad Cities NWS have issued their statements on the tornadoes that occurred yesterday in Iowa. The tornado in Des Moines & Seymour were both given EF1 ratings, their reports can be found here. The other tornado in Iowa occurred in Keokuk county nearest to the town of Delta, this one was also given an EF1 rating. The specifics for that one as well as the tornado in Scotland county, MO are given on the Quad Cities NWS page.

A nice day today however behind the front with mid 70s to near 80 degrees for the highs across the state. Tonights' lows won't drop nearly as low as last nights as the southerly winds in the lower levels will continue to bring up moisture, upper 40s in eastern Iowa to the mid 50s in western Iowa are forecasted. Highs tomorrow should range from low to mid 80s with the southerly winds continuing to pump in warm and moist air for this weekend. This can easily be seen in Thursday night lows as they will be limited by the dew points, range of lows should be near 60 to the mid 60s in southern Iowa.

Thursday evening and early overnight will bring the first round of severe weather that will be possible over northwest Iowa. The strong lower level winds will continue to increase the moisture return to the north, this will also aid in the development of a warm front over the area. The nose of the low level jet will likely be the focus of thunderstorm development, mainly elevated during the overnight hours. These thunderstorms do have the possibilities of becoming severe, with large hail being the main threat. Isolated shower/thunderstorm may last overnight and into the morning hours for northern Iowa, although they should clear out of the area with time.

Friday's highs will be well above normal and within a few degrees of records in the warmth can really spread to the north. Lower 80s in the north where some clouds may linger near the warm front will keep them from flirting with near record warmth. However from Sioux City to the Quad Cities and points southward, highs will likely range in the mid to upper 80s! The dew point will also remain high, leading to quite muggy conditions for this time of year. Lows overnight will be wonderful, ranging from mid to upper 60s!

Currently areas of northwest Iowa are currently under a slight risk for Friday evening/night as well, including a hatched area where significant severe weather may be possible. This threat however is still questionable as the warm front will likely be well north of the state. We'll likely be relying on the low pressure system that will be developing over eastern Nebraska. This system is currently getting strong wording from the SPC, indicating that with such strong shear values and instability, along with a stout capping inversion that will be in place where storms can initiate they may have the ability for some extremely large hail and potentially strong tornadoes. This is very strong wording for an event this far out, so it will definitely deserve to be watched as it unfolds.

The weekend may also hold more severe weather potential as a deep trough move out of the west and onto the plains. A coinciding low pressure system will also develop int he lee of the Rockies and move into the western Plains for Saturday and Sunday. This feature in the forecast is also quite difficult to pinpoint at this time, but given the strong heating and moisture that is likely to be in place along with some impressive shear values it is undoubtedly looking like some areas of the plains will be in good shape for severe weather. This will likely be my focus of the next several updates, with the potential for several severe weather and chase opportunities on the weekend.

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Recap of October 2nd Severe Storms

Today ended up being quite an active day today on the severe weather front, with 2 tornadoes reported and 4 wind reports also received. Starting with the 4 wind reports that were received, first one in Taylor county at 4:15 PM and a second one at the Des Moines airport at 4:47 PM when several car windows were blown out. The last two reports were out of Keokuk county where a machine shed and barn both had their roofs' torn off. Indications from the Fire Department there indicate that they believe it could have been a tornado that incurred this damage. Surveys' will likely be done tomorrow by the NWS and colleagues to confirm whether or not each report was a tornado and the ratings for them as well.

The two tornado reports currently only obtain the following information:
1) Power Lines/Poles down on 13th Street & Mulberry in Des Moines, Also car flipped on SW 6th Street.
2) Seymour in Wayne county, Emergency Manager reported that a roof was blown off, several windows blown out and power poles/lines down within town.

Further to the south there were several tornado reports as well, including a couple of injuries with the tornado reports. This system has already worked well out of the state and areas where it is currently affecting are no longer under any severe risk as no watches are currently in effect. Forecast remains similar to the one stated in the previous post this morning, expect another update tomorrow night for the remainder of the work week and a look ahead at our next system that poses a severe weather threat.

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Thunderstorms

Our next cold front is beginning to influence the state this morning with thunderstorms slowly progressing eastward across the state. Currently the thunderstorms only cover the extreme western portions of the state, a good cluster of thunderstorms is also located over in the Pocahontas/Humboldt area. These thunderstorms should make there way to the northeast individually, while the line pushed by the cold front should progress eastward through the afternoon. Making it into central Iowa by Noon, into eastern Iowa by late afternoon or the early evening hours. There is a possibility that we could see some isolated severe weather during the afternoon hours over central and eastern Iowa. Currently only southeastern portions of the state are under a slight risk for severe weather, a storms or two may have the capabilities for large hail and damaging winds, could see a tornado warning or two along the cold front as well. None of these severe risks are very likely however, but you are encouraged to take notice if the storms are heading into your area that you are sure they pose no severe threat. The cold front should continue moving into the nighttime hours and clear all of the rain out by Midnight or a little after tonight for the extreme eastern portions of the state. You can follow the progress of the rain online as well as view any warnings that are issued in near-real time at Iowa Chaser, viewing the 'Latest Radar' image.

With the rain moving through and clouds dominating the skies today, high temperatures are likely to only reach into the lower 70s for western Iowa, mid 70s for central Iowa and the upper 70s for eastern Iowa, with the possibility for a few 80 marks in the southeast. Lows tonight behind the front should range from the mid 40s in the west to the lower 50s in the east. Even with this cold frontal passage, it won't hamper the highs too much by Wednesday with highs expected into the 70s across the state; lower 70s to upper 70s from east to west. Nighttime lows on Wednesday should only dip down into the near 50 range for a majority of the state, a few mid 50s in the southern third.

Those warm temperatures look to continue beyond the mid-week point until our next cold front takes aim at the state by the weekend. More details on that threat in later updates this week...

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September 30 Severe Weather

Yesterday saw the state under a tornado watch with several storms capable of producing a tornado at one time or another during the evening hours. Areas of northwest Iowa and then southern & eastern Iowa were the hardest hit with damaging winds and hail, as well as at least two tornadoes that traveled through Marion, Jasper and Poweshiek counties in Iowa. We'll start with those two tornadoes as the surveys have already been completed and they have been rated with an EF1 and EF2. To read the entire report on those two tornadoes and their track statistics, view the Des Moines NWS webpage. Arial photos of those tornadoes, their path and the damage that ensued can be found via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet courtesy of IowaHelicopters. Those storms continued on into eastern Iowa where they became mainly wind producers during the early nighttime hours.

Other storms erupted in eastern SD/NE and moved into the state expanding with time during the evening hours. Several tornado warnings were issued with such rapid low level rotation that was present with the storms, however as of now there are no official reports of tornadoes in the northwest Iowa area. For the most part the reports in the first couple hours of storm evolution were large hail, including one report from 3 miles east of Cushing where 2 inch diameter hail fell. After 6 PM when the storms became mainly linear there were reports of winds along the storms path, although several tornado warnings were issued for the storms as they went through areas of Sac, Pocahontas, Palo Alto and Kossuth counties. Wind reports came out of Alta, near Oyens and my report from just south of Emmetsburg. Yes, I ended up punching through the line as it went through Palo Alto county during the late evening hours in my route back to Ames. I was met by some blinding rains and some wind that decided to blow all of it nearly horizontal to the south of Emmetsburg.

All of these storms were caused by a fairly potent system, although not nearly as strong as it could have been. A low pressure system was moving into the state from Nebraska at the surface, where it was slowly beginning to dissipate. The pressure falls were not great enough to keep it sustained, thus as it entered the state it was weakening in nature. Nonetheless the strong rotation near the low was enough to warrant several of those warnings yesterday. The lack of instability due to moisture and sunshine also hampered the severe weather threat... Overall the day turned out to be not as potent as it has potential for, leaving several severe weather enthusiasts disappointed. It did however produce tornadoes that unfortunately caused damage to a few homes and farmsteads. Another severe weather event is possible tomorrow, more details on that will be available in the morning.

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Cold Core Low Severe Weather

A low pressure system and cold front is currently over areas just to the west of the state. Some thunderstorms moving through the state this morning, with thunder included will keep the temperatures down and the sun away. A lot of questions in the forecast for the state on how this system will evolve and how much of a severe risk we will see. Latest discussions have a threat of severe weather during the afternoon/evening hours, beginning with a possible isolated storms capable of a tornado or two will then evolve into a broken line of severe thunderstorms along the cold front by later this afternoon. When that occurs I would expect the severe risk to come down to mainly a wind and a few large hail events...

More updates possible later this afternoon...

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