Weekend Severe Chances

With thunderstorm chances on the increase and severe weather possible out west in SD/NE today, what are our chances for the weekend in catching some of the action?

A low pressure system that is currently near the Nebraska panhandle will lift to the northeast tonight and into tomorrow. Trailing this low is a cold front and just ahead of it a warm front that is likely to setup over southern MN tomorrow. These features are likely to cause thunderstorm activity over the area as early as tonight. Tonights' storms however will be out ahead of this system and mainly be capable of heavy rains along with some gusty winds. Tomorrows' storms that may redevelop over portions of eastern SD/NE into MN and Iowa will have the ability to become severe. However, they must be able to develop first and that is currently a large question in the forecast. How strong is the cap, or warm air aloft, in the warm sector ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front. Most cases during August over the state doesn't bode well for seeing thunderstorm activity develop ahead of these features during the evening hours and thus I'd expect the best chance for thunderstorms to be in the early nighttime hours when the cap has eroded and the cold front begins its' trek over the state. Those storms may still have some severe potential, with damaging winds being the highest risk.

Thunderstorms should move over central Iowa Saturday night along with the cold front. Sunday will once again put the state in a risk of thunderstorms and possibly a severe storm or two. The risk on Sunday however is highly dependent on the outcomes of Saturdays' events and the positioning of other features from those storms. Tomorrow may allow a better defined area and threats to this area.

For now expect risks of thunderstorms tonight over western/central Iowa with little severe threat. Redevelopment of thunderstorms over areas of SD/NE/MN and northwestern Iowa tomorrow, especially in the early nighttime hours, with some severe storms possible. Storms continuing over central/eastern Iowa on Saturday night with little severe weather threat once again. Sunday could be another active day over the state, however the potential is yet to be defined as it is dependent on other features from previous days convection and the positioning of fronts, etc.