Stormy Weekend & Beyond

Recent forecasts have begun to enhance the thunderstorm potential over the state this weekend and into early next week as well. The storm predication center (SPC) upgraded their day 2 outlook for areas of the Dakotas dramatically this afternoon; this same system will begin to effect the area late tomorrow night into Saturday. Beyond this system, another front looks to setup over the state and stall out early next week and could once again be the focus for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong.

Tomorrow will be another warm and nice day with temperatures and moisture increasing; highs in the mid to upper 80s. Late tomorrow night should have thunderstorms move into western Iowa in the likely form of an MCS or large cluster or line of thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are currently not expected to hold much of a severe threat, but stronger winds along with heavy rains are a definite possibility as they move across the state.

Those storms may be able to hold on through the morning hours, otherwise more development is likely in the afternoon hours. Northern Iowa currently holds the better chance of thunderstorms, although all of the state has at least a slight chance inserted into the forecast. Highs will be highly dependent on cloud cover from the thunderstorms, where the sun shines expect temperatures in the upper 80s, otherwise highs in the upper 70s & lower 80s where cloud debris remains. By Saturday night the thunderstorms should move off to eastern Iowa; lows in the upper 60s over the northern 2/3rds of the state while the southern third will see lower 70s. Currently forecasts indicate that the thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening hours on Saturday may hold some potential for severe weather, but there are several questions that need to be answered on how things play out for severe weather development. The biggest wrench in things is the warm temperatures aloft, the cap, that may hold off storms from developing over the state. Tomorrows' update should be able to shed more light on the severe possibilities...

Next week continues an active weather pattern, with thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Sunday night through Wednesday as several waves make their way through the northern plains. These waves will all travel along a front that is likely to stall from west to east across the state. Temperatures through the first half of the week will likely be in the upper 80s to mid 90s; humidity levels also likely to be fairly high as moisture continues to feed into the area. The SPC has indicated in their extended severe weather forecast that some of the thunderstorms that occur during the Monday through Wednesday time frame may have the potential to become severe. Exact threats will have to be determined as the system comes into shape and later updates will hopefully be able to expand on them.