August 13 Severe Risk

3:15 PM Update: New SPC outlook has increased potential for southwest Minnesota once again, this time in the tornado probabilities. Now looking for thunderstorm development this evening south of the warm front, these storms would likely quickly become severe and have the potential for large hail and tornadoes. The problem thunderstorms are likely to run into is the cap or extremely warm air between the 850mb and 700mb layers. If this cap can be broke, expect those thunderstorms to quickly develop and expand.
I've currently not yet decided on plans for storm chasing, this increased tornado risk does tempt me. However, quite a bit of work to be done to prepare for the move to college and not sure about how much it is worth to travel with such a stout cap.


11:45 AM Update: The latest outlook from the SPC has shifted the threat further west to cover all of southern MN, northeast Iowa and northcentral Iowa as well as portion of northwest Iowa. The severe potential is already growing south of the warm front which is located from near Aberdeen, SD to Jackson, MN to near Cedar Rapids, IA... Along and likely just north of the front is where storms are expected to develop this evening. Updates will continue this afternoon on the position of the warm front and any changes to outlooks, etc.


11:20 AM Update: The Storm Prediction Center issued a 'Moderate' risk of severe weather for portions of MN/WI and northeastern Iowa this morning. The moderate risk was issued for the possibilities of a damaging wind event during the evening/overnight hours through this area. A warm front that is currently draped over the northern plains is the main trigger for these storms. Previously it was forecasted to make it well into MN and initiate storms near and east of Fargo, ND while it is currently much further south than that and morning forecasts have shown the warm front might not be on the move as much as previously thought. If the warm front does not make a large move to the north, I expect the risk area to be highlighted further west over portions of western MN into central Iowa. A new outlook from the SPC is expected shortly and should shed some light on the possibilities of a more widespread severe risk for the state of Iowa this evening/tonight.

I'm prepared for a possible chase this evening if things do arise nearby, but not willing to make a large trip anywhere due to the likelihood of the storms being linear in nature. I'll keep updates going through the afternoon on the potential for severe weather and my chasing possibilities.