Weekend System (Model Update)

This is essentially a copy of the post I made on the weather forums moments ago about the current models handling of the system coming in this weekend. The system has got the attention of not only winter weather enthusiasts, but the storm chasers & severe weather enthusiasts are also all over this one with the potential for severe weather being there as well. This is a brief update of what the models show from this morning and the afternoon runs (12z and 18z).

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The morning GFS had the track from the Oklahoma panhandle Saturday morning to around the Kansas City area by Saturday evening. With intense thunderstorms likely from northeast Texas through OK/KS and MO, potentially reaching southern portions of Iowa. Otherwise wrap around precipitation and showers through the rest of Iowa, southern MN and eastern NE. The concern for snowfall sets in by midnight Saturday, with eastern Nebraska likely to be the first areas to see significant snows beginning. GFS at that time is also having some problems with convective feedback almost, if not one hell of a complex of rain/potential thunderstorms in eastern Iowa and southward. By Sunday morning this low really tightens up to nearly 983; showing significant rains now along the southern Mississippi Valley and also in the Great Lakes region. Snowfall by Sunday morning is located throughout central/western Iowa, eastern NE, southeastern SD and most of southern MN. Sunday afternoon/evening leaves lingering snow showers through the northern plains as the low moves off and weakens over the Great Lakes region. Total precipitation amounts, this of course will comes as a mixture of rain and snow over the period of the 2 days are above 1.5 inches for eastern NE, all of IA, the southeastern half of MN and various other portions of central MO (likely squall line). Areas along the IA/NE border and the IA/IL borders feature >2 inches and even >2.5 inches of total precipitation. Thus, flooding may also become a concern here with that high of totals.

The Canadian is fairly identical to the GFS at this time and the ECMWF is slightly north and east of the GFS track. Strength is fairly similar, although potentially slightly weaker than the GFS forecast.

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The 18z GFS run from this afternoon is different from this morning, by Saturday evening this system is still in central KS. Thus, the GFS has slowed this system down putting areas of eastern KS/OK and northeast Texas in prime locations for severe thunderstorms. Areas of eastern NE also seeing heavy rain as they are directly north of the low. By Sunday morning the low is just over Kansas City, thus nearly 12 hrs behind the previous forecasted position. The snows do not look to be occurring except in areas of central NE and north central KS at this time, compared to previously being over eastern NE. During the day on Sunday the heaviest snows look to be occurring in MN as well as the eastern Dakotas/eastern NE. By Sunday night the low is still in central Iowa, putting some potential mix of precipitation over Iowa and areas of snow showers through MN/Dakotas and possibly eastern NE. The low is much slower in leaving, but yet leaving around the same amount of total precipitation in approx. the same areas... Although the latest run does look to have more rain than the snow.