Febuary 1 Snowfall

A quick system will move over the Plains states during the overnight tonight and through tomorrow, leaving a little more snow over parts of the Northern and Central Plains.  This upper level disturbance will move over the Plains, and while moisture isn't abundant it will be able to squeeze out a few inches over parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa and further east into the Great Lakes.  Other areas across Nebraska and Missouri may also be able to squeeze out an inch or so of snowfall tomorrow.  Snowfall should be across the eastern Dakotas during the morning hours tomorrow, over MN/IA/NE/MO through the late morning and afternoon hours, and then lingering over parts of MN/IA/MO and points east during the overnight and into Tuesday for the Great Lakes region.

Snow totals will range from 2-4 inches across southern North Dakota, northern/eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and then over the IL/WI borders.  Up to an inch of snowfall may be seen across adjacent areas of the Dakotas/Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/Missouri and then also extreme northern Kansas, and points east into the Great Lakes regions.  For specifics on your areas, check out your local NWS office for the latest snowfall forecasts...

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Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Recap

Areas of significant icing and sleeting occurred through areas of central Oklahoma, into Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley with this winter storm.  Heavy snows fell from the Texas Panhandle through northern Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and points further east...  Many of the National Weather Service offices have issued a summary of their reports received and links to them are below:


Amarillo, TX -  Winter Storm Review  &  Snow/Ice Totals

Norman, OK -  Snowfall Map & Ice Accum. Map

Tulsa, OK -  Snowfall Totals Map

Wichita, KS -  Snow Totals & Review

Dodge City, KS -  Heavy Snow Totals

Springfield, MO -  Snow Totals & Review 

St. Louis, MO -  Snowfall Totals

Little Rock, AR -  Snow/Ice Totals & Review

Paducah, KY -  Snowfall Totals

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Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Update #4

As posted in a quick twitter update last night, this system had some problems with dry air, which was expected if you read back to previous posts or read any NWS discussion.  A band of snowfall did setup along central Kansas, allowing for 2-4" across an area roughly along Highway 54 in Kansas.  It took several hours for this band of snowfall to saturate the dry levels just above the surface yesterday afternoon, and as it continued to push northeastward early last night it continued to struggle with even drier air over northeast Kansas and Missouri.  While this was able to finally saturate, only very light snow was reported with this, and thus little accumulations actually occurred. 

This morning snowfall continues to be reported over southwest Missouri and southern Kansas, and this snow should continue through the morning hours in Kansas and over southern Missouri through this evening.  Accumulations have been hampered by the dry air, and the heaviest band of snow over southern Missouri should range from 3-6".  The two large metro areas of Missouri (Kansas City & St. Louis) should only see occasional light snow through the evening hours, leading to anywhere from a dusting to perhaps just over an inch of snow. 

As expected, the hardest hit areas with this system was over Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas where the dry air was not present at 850hPa and the precipitation was easily able to saturate and reach the ground in very little time.  Large amounts of snow, ice, and sleet were reported over these areas and please refer to their NWS webpage for the latest summaries on conditions there.  A full recap of snowfall reports will be posted later this evening/tonight to recap the winter storm.

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Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Update #3

Heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain already falling across the Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon; with a mix of some severe weather as well with damaging winds gusts possible with a bow echo moving just south of the stationary boundary in northern Texas.  Expect the precipitation to continue to move northeast and into southern Kansas and Missouri by this evening, and into central Kansas and Missouri by the overnight hours tonight. The precipitation should come to an end over Kansas by Friday evening, and over Missouri by Saturday morning.  Areas south of I70 will see snowfall accumulations, however, areas just along I70 and just south will likely see 3" or less. Once again this is a very tight gradient of snowfall and will increase rapidly with southward extent.  The heaviest snowfall amounts will likely occur along and south of Highway 54, where 6-10" seems likely...

Will be busy watching the storm progress this afternoon, with an update possible later tonight...

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Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Update #2

Models continue to paint a winter storm over portions of the Southern/Central Plains, however the track and specifics on precipitation totals are still in question.  Both this mornings (12z) model runs and this afternoons (18z) continued to slow the systems progress and hence pull the system further north across parts of Kansas and Missouri.  At the same time, a strong arctic high will progress southward and situate itself over the Northern Plains for the same time frame as the upcoming winter storm.  This will lead to a very tight northern gradient of snowfall amounts, with a 50 mile north/south range of no snow to upwards of 6 inches likely.  The question that continues for most forecasters is where this line will be located at, will it be along/near I70 over Kansas and Missouri like the latest models anticipate, or will it be further south along Highway 54 as initial forecasts indicated?  With this northward progression of the snowfall totals this leads to a further north progression of the sleet and freezing rain totals as well.  Indicating that parts of extreme southern Missouri may see some initial precipitation fall as sleet rather than snow. Thus, a lot of questions remain in play for this system, especially with the system remaining out of reach by the upper air analysis for the forecast models.

We'll once again be waiting to see tomorrow mornings' model runs as they should finally begin to have data from at least portions of the system moving out of the Baja.  For now the previous forecasts are going to have a tendency to be pushed further north, leading the heaviest axis of snow to occur from the Texas Panhandle east/northeast into northern Oklahoma and into southern Missouri. The heaviest band of sleet/ice is expected to occur from central Oklahoma into northern Arkansas, which is especially a change for portion of northern Arkansas that previously were looking at upwards of 8" of snow and are now viewing 2-4" and ice amounts of greater than a 1/4".  Of greater concern is the northward extent of the snow, which as mentioned previously will come on a very sharp gradient.  What makes this situation even more difficult, or easy, depending on what you want to believe is the large amounts of dry air that are being brought down with the arctic high pressure over the Northern Plains.  RH values near 850hPa are going to be below 20% over much of Missouri and adjacent areas on Thursday evening! Now given the dynamics and good warm/moist air advection across southern Missouri and adjacent areas this shouldn't be much of a problem, although limiting the first couple hours of precipitation to saturate this dry layer. The problem arises further north where the winds are likely to stay northeast or easterly at best at 850hPa leading to only dry/neutral advection at best. Areas that cannot get winds turned to the southeast are not likely to overcome this dry air at 850hPa and thus will are not likely to see any accumulating precipitation.  I've included this nice image below to give you an example using the BUFKIT data at KMCI (Kansas City Intl), and a cross-section from northeast Nebraska into north-central Arkansas (thus including Omaha, Kansas City and Springfield). You can see on the BUFKIT overview (on the left) that through Thursday evening we are never able to completely saturate and theoretically allow precipitation to fall. The cross-section to the right shows a good reason why, valid at Thursday 6PM you can see the relative humidity given by the black contours, and frontogenesis in the colored image. The frontogenesis will aid in saturating the layer below, however if you were to watch the loop of the image you would see that it is only strong enough to overcome the area to the south of Kansas City. Leaving KC along the edge of near-saturation and still having RH values of less than 30% at/near 850hPa.

In the end, areas to the south of I70 appear to have the chance at accumulating snow, with areas along I70 at least having the chance of seeing snow occurring. Snowfall amounts near/along I70 will likely be less than an inch, with a rapid increase to the south where nearly 6" of accumulation may be seen 25 miles north of the Highway 54 axis of KS/MO. Exact values and locations still subject to change of course...  I may get an update in tomorrow morning, otherwise expect a quick update sometime tomorrow evening before this system really gets going over the Plains.

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Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30 Update #1

A major winter storm continues to be forecasted for areas of the Southern and Central Plains...

Just a quick update this morning, with a more expansive update likely this evening as the storm begins to take shape across the Southern High Plains.  Significant icing continues to be likely across areas of north-central Texas into central Oklahoma, and perhaps into parts of northern Arkansas as well.  Significant snowfall is also still on track over the Texas panhandle, northern Oklahoma, southern Kansas, and into northern Arkansas/southern Missouri.  Snowfall amounts of at least 8" seems likely, with widespread areas of TX/OK also seeing amounts greater than a foot and isolated areas perhaps seeing 18"!  Other areas of Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas may see amounts greater than 8" and isolated amounts nearing a foot.  Forecast models are beginning to have more data on this storm system, and thus we may see some changes in forecast intensity/track by this afternoon and especially this evening.  Some minor trends that I noticed this morning included a slightly further north track, and the best intensity occurring further west over TX/OK rather than the corners of TX/OK/MO/AR.  If this trend continues, than more areas of KS/MO may see this heavier snow...  While it still remains further south than the Kansas City metro and the St. Louis metro, it is much closer than previous forecasts indicated.  Any push further north may put these areas at least under a chance of accumulating snow for late Thursday and  Friday.  This afternoon/evening update will address any trends that the models take today...

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Winter Storm: Jan. 28-30

A major winter storm is still expected to impact portions of the Southern and Central Plains states in the Thursday-Friday time frame.  Forecast models continue to be in fair agreement that a low pressure system will form in the High Plains regions of NM/TX and continue east/northeastward over Texas and into Arkansas/Louisiana and points eastward before making its' way northward over the Appalachian Mountains.  This low pressure system will have ample gulf moisture to work with, that is currently moving northward over southern Texas.  This along with good warm air advection is setting the stage for a significant winter storm not only in terms of snowfall amounts, but the potential for significant freezing rain and sleet over portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas.  Further north, strong cold air advection with the presence of an arctic high over the Northern Plains will push the precipitation type to all snow over parts of southern Kansas, southern Missouri, northern Oklahoma, and extreme northern Arkansas. Current snowfall forecasts of 6-12" are likely in these regions with the potential for some isolated higher amounts given the dynamics and strong warm/cold air advections taking place.

Ahead of this system, a series of weak shortwaves will give the portions of NE/IA/KS/MO a shot at some brief snow flurries or showers tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Areas of north-central and eastern Missouri are in the best position to see these light snow showers, however, accumulations should still remain at a dusting at best.

Regarding the positioning of our Thursday/Friday winter storm, areas south of a Liberal, KS to Wichita, KS to St. Louis, MO line will see snowfall. With the heaviest axis of snowfall likely falling 50 miles north/south of a Woodward, OK to Winona, MO line. Along this heaviest snow axis, 6-12" with isolated higher amounts appear possible. Also of concern will be the potential for significant sleet and freezing rain, with this axis coming 50 miles north/south of a Altus, OK to Jonesboro, AR line.  These are initial positions of heaviest snow/ice axis', as this system is still coming onshore.  Morning model runs should have a much better idea on this system, as sporadic changes could still ensue with the forecast models.  An additional update tomorrow morning will address if any sporadic changes have been made...

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Iowa Blizzard - Jan. 25

Conditions across the state of Iowa have deteriorated rapidly throughout the day, causing many roadways across central and western Iowa to be closed due to blowing snow. Roadways that are not 'officially' closed are still advised no travel as plows have been pulled off of the roadways and rescue in the case of an incident will be near impossible. As of 2PM the Iowa DOT and Iowa State Patrol were in the process of closing I-35 from Clear Lake to Ames due to a number of incidents along that stretch of interstate and to avoid any additional wrecks. Blizzard Warnings will continue through 9 PM or Midnight for many of the counties in western and central Iowa due to the continued blowing snow.  Less than an inch of new snow is expected through the remainder of the afternoon, but the 2-5 inches of accumulation that has fell since last night is creating blizzard conditions across these areas.  Winds from the northwest will continue at 25-45 mph with some higher gusts, creating near zero visibility into the nighttime hours. Winds should begin to subside during the overnight and continue to do so through the day tomorrow.  Nonetheless, expect hazardous driving conditions to continue into the afternoon hours tomorrow as road crews will need several hours to clear roadways that have drifted shut. Reports from some counties indicate drifts upwards of three feet high are occurring on state and county roads.

Once again, there are several reports of stranded/disabled vehicles across the state, many of which may not have rescue for several more hours. If you do not have to travel, please do not do so!

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Blizzard Warning!

Several NWS offices have issued a Blizzard Warning for portions of the northern Plains including western Minnesota, and much of western Iowa.  These blizzard warnings continue until this evening as snowfall of light to moderate intensity should continue through much of the afternoon.  Although accumulations of only 1-2 inches at most is expected, strong winds of 30-40 mph with gusts upwards of 50 mph will likely create hazardous conditions.  While snow is falling, these winds will create white out conditions on most roadways, and in some areas may also cause drifting of the blowing snow.  As the snow moves out of the area this evening conditions should improve, although a ground blizzard situation could ensue with the new snow left on the ground.  Expect storm total accumulations of 2-5 inches across central Iowa, with 1-3 inches likely across extreme western Iowa.  Lesser amounts are possible across eastern Iowa, and northern Missouri through this evening, although the strong winds may create some hazardous driving conditions.

The Iowa DOT is beginning to advise no travel for several major highways, and have begun to pull plows off of the roads in some areas due to the zero visibility and drifting of snow.  Once again...  Winter just does not want to end across these regions!

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Winter is still going...

I was kind of amazed this morning at all of the comments regarding how winter just does not seem to want to end across the Plains, especially the northern Plains.  Even comments from students across Iowa indicate that they would rather just go to school than continue with their snow days, this comes as they realize they will have so many days to make up that their summer will likely be cut in half.  This is true today as light to moderate snow continues to fall across the northern Plains, areas of the Dakotas/Minnesota/Wisconsin continue to see snow fall, and northeast Nebraska into western and central Iowa are also seeing an additional 1-2" of snow today.  While these amounts are not challenging to most people, northwest winds continue at 30-40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, creating blowing snow and hazardous wind chills and driving conditions.  This snow will thankfully come to an end later this afternoon and evening for most areas, with perhaps a few lingering flurries for the overnight for these areas and places a little south (northern MO).  We'll get a dry day on Tuesday, and for early Wednesday for most areas...

The next storm system will come into play late Wednesday through early Friday for areas of the central Plains.  Current forecasts indicate that this system will mainly impact areas of southeast Kansas, southern Missouri and areas of the Tennessee & Ohio Valley's.  Although areas farther north may still see precipitation, Kansas City may see a wintery mix on Wednesday and the same goes for areas of central Missouri (Columbia & Jefferson City).  A warm front will become situated over southern/central Missouri as a low develops over the high plains regions of Texas/Oklahoma.  This warm front will allow precipitation to begin across southern Missouri and adjacent areas by the evening hours on Wednesday.  The initial precipitation type will be the questionable one, as we could see either rain or freezing rain; and perhaps a mix of sleet before the precipitation should change over to snow by Thursday afternoon.  The changeover to snow will occur as the low slides to the south across Arkansas, allowing additional cold air to filter in.  Timing and exact locations are still difficult at the moment, but confidence is becoming fairly high that areas of southern Missouri will see a wintery mix of precipitation from Wednesday evening into early Friday.  Additional updates regarding the end of today's light snow and the midweek storm system tonight.

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