Snow Totals Through Oct. 29

The map below is courtesy of the Interactive Snow Information web page, it shows the latest snow depth information provided at 1AM this morning.  I have switched the views to a high contrast on the image to allow a little better detail, and you can see several locations of 16-20 inches and even isolated higher amounts.  Keep in mind that snow continued to fall through the night across other areas to the north and east, thus an updated map tomorrow may show accumulations in those areas.

The weather pattern seems to go quiet for a period after this system, with only a weak trough settling through the weekend across the northern plains and then a high pressure system working into the forecast for what looks to be the remainder of the week next week.  Our next big storm system appears in the GFS for the time frame of Nov. 10-12 give or take a few days dependent upon your location on the plains.  Check out the map and legend of the snowfall accumulations below:

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Oct. 28/29 Snowfall

Snow has been falling this morning in the mountain regions of the west, with upwards of 4-6" already being reported in several areas with an additional foot plus still to fall this afternoon and into tonight.  Two bloggers that may be of interest for those of you wanting to keep up with the storm in the Denver area can visit the Tornadoes Kick blog and the Carlson's Blog.  There may be some additional people, so just keep track of the links displayed in the right of the blog to watch for any mentions of snow.

In addition to the snow threat, further east onto the plains states will see the threat of severe weather!  Today's threat extends through the central plains including Oklahoma and Texas, and tomorrows threat is across the Lower Mississippi Valley regions of OK/TX/AR/LA.  Please check out the latest SPC updates and outlooks for more information on the severe weather threats across those aforementioned regions.

In the meantime, you can check out some of the model forecasted snowfall amounts through the next 72 hours across the mountainous west and the high plains of Nebraska and South Dakota.  Needless to say you can see why Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for much of those regions!

00z GFS CONUS Snowfall for 72hrs

00z NAM CONUS Snowfall for 72hrs

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Oct. 28/29 Storm System

A potent storm system will setup a closed upper-level low over the inter-mountain west during the morning hours tomorrow, that will continue to progress northeastward into the northern plains on Thursday.  This upper level low will evolve into a deep trough as the strong flow aloft pushes the closed low onto the plains.  This storm system will bring moderate to heavy snow across the mountainous west as well as the high plains of western Nebraska and South Dakota.  The system will also produce moderate and locally heavy rainfall across the rest of the central and northern Plains through Friday.  This heavy rainfall across the plains is definitely not a welcome site to most areas that continue to try to harvest crops and finish fall projects that have been hampered by intermittent rains throughout the past month.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across the mountainous west and high plains as snowfall should begin as early as tonight.  Total snowfall accumulations are likely to be in the 6-12 inch range across the high plains, and even higher in the mountain regions and in localized areas.  Widespread precipitation amounts greater than .25-.50 inches are likely across the plains, with localized areas of an inch or greater across the plains through Thursday.  As the event evolves expect widespread rains to also continue across the lower Mississippi River Valley from Thursday and Friday with amounts well above an inch.  This rainfall in conjunction with a secondary low that will likely form ahead of the continued deep trough.  Severe weather is possible across the central and southern plains as early as tomorrow and continuing through Friday.  Although details are still questionable, widespread damaging winds will likely be the main event given such dynamic and strong winds aloft.  Additional details and updates are possible for portions of the plains states as this system evolves.

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New Blog

I have begun the process of switching over to a new blog, and soon a new website.  Okay, maybe I shouldn't say soon as there may be a good amount of time before a new website is really complete enough to show to the world. 

But, I have imported all of the posts from my previous blog, Iowa Chaser, so as to not lose any of my previous storm chases, meteorological thoughts, and general updates.  I will soon post an update on my previous blog to be sure to let everyone know and to get links transferred over, etc.

In the meantime, I hope to begin to posting more regularly on this blog and keep you updated not only with my current meteorological thoughts, but the on-goings of my life in general.  Here's to more updates!

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Been A Long Time...

I kept telling myself that it had been a long time since I had gotten an update on the blog. And I figured as we start to see the first flurries of snow fall across northwest Iowa tonight that this is as good as time as any to give a nice little, welcome snow message.

I've been very busy as of late since my last updates... Been spending lots of time with my now nearly 5-month old son, as well as my new wife (got married last weekend). And trying to find work, applying for jobs, and actually working...

I shall try to get into a better routine now that a few things, like the whole wedding, are now crossed off the list. Hope those across the northwest half of the state can enjoy their snow flurries tonight and into tomorrow morning. Look for a few more shots of snow through the weekend before a warm-up looks to return to the state.

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Fall Already?!?

The past couple of days after a cold front passage have definitely had that fall feeling to them, with highs barely into the 70s for much of the state and lows being down into the 50s and even some 40s there in some portions of Iowa. The cool and calm nights led to some dense fog in low lying areas, but perfect nights for sleeping.

We'll begin to warm up today with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s along the Missouri River; and only into the mid 70s along the Mississippi. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 60s to the mid 50s from west to east marking the increase in moisture ahead of our next storm system. Monday's highs will make it to the 80s throughout the state, from the upper 80s to lower 80s from west to east. Moisture will continue to increase across the state ahead of our next storm system, keeping lows in the upper 60s to lower 60s from west to east. We'll see the cold front push through eastern South Dakota and into western Minnesota during the early morning hours on Tuesday, and likely bring showers and thunderstorms to the northern third of the state through the early afternoon hours on Tuesday. While a few severe storms can't be ruled out given sufficient instability and marginal shear, it does not appear to be much more than a marginal wind/hail threat at this time.

Beyond our cold front passage we'll once again see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and a few 80-marks through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s will make it a bit cooler than normal, but nothing that most will complain about given the nice sleeping conditions.

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Much Quieter

After a busy weekend for portions of the state we have set into a much quieter pattern for the remainder of the week, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the state. A weak ridge to zonal flow will be in place across much of the western two-thirds of the US through the end of the week. This is what will be leaving Iowa and much of the plains under sunny skies with warm temperatures. As we work into the weekend a trough enters the flow and will begin to affect the northern plains late Friday and continue through Monday. It is still too early to tell the thunderstorm threat, and specifically the severe weather threat with this disturbance.

Enjoy what seems to be the first full week of summer-like temperatures and conditions. Beyond our weekend disturbance long-range forecast models once again bring the jet stream well north and leave the plains in a weak ridge indicative of warm temperatures and mostly sunny afternoons.

A quick look back at Sunday's long lived supercell that progressed along highway 20 throughout the state, the Des Moines NWS has a nice page that shows a radar loop with storm reports. There is also a few pictures that were provided by the Fort Dodge Amateur Radio Association, you can check them out on the NWS page and below:

NWS Des Moines - August 9 Supercell Page

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August 9 Severe Weather Update #1

A morning supercell is moving through portions of central Iowa, currently just west of Fort Dodge capable of producing 1" to 3" diameter hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm has been severe for quite some time this morning, beginning near the Iowa/Nebraska border and moving east/northeast approximately 40 mph.

This storm has a history of producing 1" to 2" diameter hail and damaging winds, creating some blowing hail that has blown out windows of a home near Yetter, Iowa. The strongest part of this storm is expected to effect downtown Fort Dodge and may produce significant hail capable of producing damaging to vehicles, homes, and especially people.

Latest report from Callender indicates at least 60 mph winds, and close to 1" diameter hail that has caused roof damage and tree damage in town.

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Severe Weather Potential - August 7 Update #3

Despite the hopes for convection before sunset, it does not appear likely as sunset is within an hour or two and there is not even a watch issued for potential development. Some cumulus is occurring in the warm sector, however, temperatures at 700hPa have increased to 14C directly over the most likely area for development. This is suppressing any chance of convection until at least after sundown across the area...

Thunderstorm development is still possible along the front as the low level jet increases slightly and we see the decoupling of the boundary layer. The tornadic threat with this development will be fairly minimal, with a large hail threat, and a more likely damaging wind threat across portions of southeast South Dakota and then across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. An additional update is possible, but only if development can actually occur.

Once again Iowa has went and gone off to disappoint the severe weather lovers across the northern plains!

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Severe Weather Potential - August 7 Update #2

Convective inhibition remains strong, however, confidence has increased that the inhibition will yield to convection during the late afternoon or evening hours across portions of the warm front in South Dakota and Iowa. Thunderstorms that do develop are likely to be supercellular with the threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes given good low level shear and strong instability.

Just a short update... Expect to leave for a chase target in vicinity of Storm Lake, IA in approximately an hour. Storm initiation by 7 PM along the warm front in vicinity of prolonged strong low level convergence that is occurring in this area. Storms should follow this warm front, tapping into strong instability and good shear parameters leading to a continued tornado threat through 9 PM. Eventual evolution to a cluster or linear segments is expected beyond 10 PM with more of a damaging wind threat.

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