Wonderful Weekend!

Just when you think we might be getting into the thick of Fall and see the temperatures really tumble down, we get a week like this week has been. Although cold in the first half, we've warmed up very well and featured highs in the 70s across much of the state today. These above normal temperatures look to remain over the state through the weekend, allowing everybody a great opportunity to enjoy the nice weather at least one more time before the chilly temperatures return for good...

Highs for Friday will range from the mid 60s to near 70 from north to south across the state. These lows are slightly cooler with the weak cold front that will be entering the state, although likely stalling and becoming fairly diffuse over central Iowa. Friday night lows may have a wide range with some cloud cover possible over eastern Iowa. Either way, lows will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s from west to east. Saturday high temperatures will vary across the state with some clouds hampering highs over the northeast, but winds turning southeast will help the temperature rise slightly in western Iowa. Highs from the mid 50s in northeast Iowa, to the upper 60s over the southwest quarter of the state. Saturday night lows will be in the mid 40s to near 50 across the state, with some clouds keeping it mild. We finish of the weekend with Sunday highs in the mid 60s over northeast Iowa, to the upper 60s and near 70 across the rest of the state. Sunday night will have upper 40s and low 50s for the state, and we'll continue the mild temperatures into early next week before the next storm system arrives with a chance of rain!

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2009 Weather Calendars!

The Iowa State student chapter of the American Meteorological Society has completed our 2009 Weather Calendar! This is our main fundraiser for the year, in which the proceeds go towards several of the community outreach events that we do such as elementary school talks. The calendars are printed on glossy, card stock paper, and feature great images that were all taken by our members! Four of the images in this years' calendar are taken by yours truly, including the front cover photo.

If you wish to order a calendar, please email me at jaysonprentice(at)gmail.com or check out the web page that has been setup on our site.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/ams/calendarinfo.php

Thanks!

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Above Average Temperatures!!

At least for the highs for the remainder of the week, we'll see above average readings for nearly the entire state. The lows will hover from near normal, to above normal for the remainder of the week as well. The latter half of the week will see clear skies, making what appears to be a great Halloween night for the entire state.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s from north to south across the state. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s from east to west, as winds begin to become southerly to bring in even more warmth. Wednesday night lows in the mid to upper 30s across the state, with clear skies remaining. Thursday really warms up with southerly winds picking up 10-20 mph and some higher gusts. Highs in the lower 60s in northeast Iowa, to near 70 across the south and west. Thursday night is beggars night for many local communities, the evening forecast should see temperatures in the 50s and winds around 10 mph. Lows for Thursday night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s from northwest to southeast as a cold front begins to enter the state overnight. This cold front will hamper the high temperatures on Friday, with a few clouds finally making the forecast as well. Highs from the lower 60s to upper 60s from north to south, as winds shift to the northwest as the cold front passes through. As we enter the weekend, Friday night lows will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s from north to south.

More details on the Halloween forecast, and the entire weekend in Thursday's update!

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Severe Local Storm Conference Papers

The American Meteorological Society's Severe Local Storms Conference got underway today in Savannah, Georgia. This conference features nearly a full week of presentations about every type of severe weather imaginable, from hail, lightning and tornadoes, to hurricanes and climate relations to severe storms. I was not able to go to the conference this year, but have read through several of the papers that are available online through the AMS. I thought I'd share with you some of the ones that I have found interesting, these include the talks about TWISTEX 2008, the summer research project that I have been a part of the past two years. Another paper is on the Parkersburg, IA tornado which many people may enjoy to at least look at. Of course I will also be happy to share with you a paper that I am a co-author on! If you have any questions about the papers, please leave a message here or email me (jaysonprentice(at)gmail.com).


Synoptic environments and convective modes associated with significant tornadoes in the contiguous United States
by Thompson, Grams, & Prentice

TWISTEX 2008: In situ and mobile mesonet observations of tornadoes
by Karstens et al.

Thermodynamic and kinematic analysis near and within the Tipton, KS tornado on May 29 during TWISTEX 2008
by Lee, Finley, & Samaras

Mobile mesonet observations of an intense RFD and multiple RFD gust fronts in the May 23 Quinter, Kansas tornadic supercell during TWISTEX 2008
by Finley & Lee

The Parkersburg, IA tornado
by Marshall, Jungbluth, & Baca

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Windy & Chilly!!

After a cold front moved through last night, additional cold air was pushed into the state as a Canadian high pressure system scooted in behind the cold front and associated low pressure. These two pressure systems combined to give much of the plains some strong gusty winds today, and Iowa was definitely in the mix with a high wind warning issued for much of the state for this morning and afternoon. Wind gusts across the state were in the 50s and even 60s (mph), with sustained winds 35-45 mph. These winds have weakened with the sunset, and are currently only 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Besides the wind today, the temperatures which started out near 50 at midnight have continued to fall throughout the day despite the sunshine. The air aloft is cold enough that even surface temperatures near 40 are enough to create sporadic snow flurries across the state. Ames did see some snow flurries between 6-7 PM, and other portions of the state will continue to see these flurries through the overnight hours.

With the cold air from Canada rushing onto the plains states, you can expect that the temperatures for the next day or so will not be very warm. Tonights' lows will be kept a little warmer due to the winds, but will still results in a widespread freeze for the entire state (the first of the year for the entire state). The lower 20s are likely in northwest Iowa, and only the upper 20s for the 'warm' southeast portion of the state. Tomorrow highs will range from near 40 in the north to the mid 40s in the south despite the sun being prominent throughout the day. Overnight lows on Monday will be the coldest of the season by far, with the teens in northwest Iowa and only the mid 20s in southeast Iowa.

As winds switch to the west and southwest Tuesday into Wednesday we will start to see a nice warm-up. Tuesday highs in the mid 40s over northeast Iowa to the mid 50s over southwest Iowa. Overnight lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s from northeast to southwest across the state. The winds really shift to the southwest on Wednesday, continuing to bring in the warmth with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s from northeast to southwest. Upper 30s to lower 40s across the state on Wednesday night will finally get the entire state above freezing for a 24-hour period.

We'll warm up even more for Thursday, but another cold front coming down will keep the highs down for your Halloween weekend. A first look at your trick-or-treating forecast shows temperatures near 50 to the mid 50s from north to south across the state by 8 PM on Friday. More detail on the latter half of the week and Halloween forecast in later updates!

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October 23 Rainfall Totals

A couple of bands containing light to moderate rain moved across the state today, mainly before Noon for a majority of the state. North-central and eastern Iowa saw the rain stick around through the afternoon, although it was generally light. As the low pressure system wrapped up tightly it also brought it a significant dry slot that dried out the state this afternoon. It even allowed a few areas to see the sun during the afternoon hours, which got high temperatures a little higher than forecasted. Highs ranged from the mid 40s in northwest Iowa to the mid 50s in southeast Iowa. Currently, only a few light patches of rain remain over the state, and it should remain that way through most of the night.

Tonights' lows will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s from northwest to southeast. Additional rain showers may move into the state tomorrow morning, but mainly over the eastern half of the state as the low moves along the Iowa/Missouri border tonight. Expect most of the rain to move out before Friday evening, but a few lingering showers aren't out of the question in extreme eastern Iowa. Highs on Friday should be in the upper 40s and lower 50s throughout the state, with lows overnight in the mid 30s to near 40 from west to east. Luckily, the rain should stop by Friday evening with little in the way of additional accumulations from the rain tomorrow. The storm total rainfall through 10 PM tonight is below:

Sioux City - 2.87"
Lamoni - 2.20"
Estherville - 1.55"
Des Moines - 1.25"
Ames - 0.79"
Iowa City - 0.60"
Quad Cities - 0.52"
Ottumwa - 0.51"
Marshalltown - 0.43"
Mason City - 0.39"
Dubuque - 0.30"
Waterloo - 0.19"


Into the weekend, the forecast looks much better with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s from east to west. Sunny skies for the most part should give way to nice conditions for the Saturday college football games. Saturday night lows will range from near freezing in the northwest to near 40 in southeast Iowa. Saturday night will also see a quick moving cold front sweeping down into the state, and passing over the state by Sunday mid-morning. This cold front will be quite obvious in the high temperatures on Sunday, 40s are forecasted for the entire state. Winds on Sunday will also be howling from the northwest, 20-30 mph with gusts nearing 40 mph are possible. Look for a Sunday update to let you know how the Halloween week will be for the state of Iowa.

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October 22 Rainfall Totals

Moderate to heavy rain occurred through the morning hour throughout much of Iowa, with additional bands of rain moving through western and southern Iowa during the afternoon/evening hours. As we near the end of October 22nd, another band of light to moderate rain is working north/northwestward through much of western and central Iowa. Storm totals thus far have been fairly impressive, several areas have surpassed the two inch mark, with another night and day full of showers for them to incur. Beings the event isn't over yet, I won't go through a long list of reports, simply highlight a few of the airports across the state that have received the most.

Totals are 48 hour totals ending at 11 PM October 22

Lamoni - 2.11"
Sioux City - 2.10"
Estherville - 1.30"
Des Moines - 0.99"
Marshalltown - 0.37"
Ottumwa - 0.37"
Mason City - 0.25"
Waterloo - 0.05"
Iowa City - 0.04"
Quad Cities - 0.02"
Dubuque - 0.00"


Expect the rain to continue over western and central Iowa tonight, expanding eastward slowly to include eastern Iowa tonight and through tomorrow. The heaviest rainfall amounts through tonight and tomorrow should occur over central and eastern Iowa, thus the next storm totals update may be a little more even across the state. If you don't enjoy the rainy weather, you can always head west into Nebraska and Kansas where over a half foot of snow is forecasted/occurring!

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Let the Rain Begin!

Some light rainfall occurred over the afternoon hours in mainly western Iowa. A band of rain has continued to move into eastern Iowa, this is very narrow and is quite weak with rainfall amounts generally only a few hundredths. Another cluster of moderate rainfall has moved into southwestern Iowa, and should continue to move mainly east throughout southern and western Iowa. Additional rainfall should continue throughout the nighttime hours over all but extreme eastern Iowa. As the rain continues to wrap around a low pressure system that will be positioned well west of the state, the rain should continue through all but extreme eastern Iowa throughout the day tomorrow. The low pressure system will slowly move east/southeast overnight on Wednesday and through Thursday. The movement of the low will pull the showers over the western half of the state Wednesday night, and over nearly the entire state on Thursday. By Thursday night the showers will finally move out of all but southeastern Iowa, with the rain clearing the entire state by Friday afternoon. Rainfall totals may be quite heavy with the consistent rain; 1-2 inches over the eastern half of the state, and 2-3 inches possible over the western half of the state. Local areas may see even heavier amounts approaching 4 inches or greater... You can view the latest radar from central Iowa on the Iowa Chaser Homepage.

Under the cloudy skies for the next 3 days, the temperatures will be fairly steady. Lows only ranging from the mid 30s to the mid 40s tonight through Thursday night. Highs tomorrow in the lower 40s to mid 50s from west to east, with the upper 40s and lower 50s on Thursday. As the system clears the state on Friday we'll see temperatures rise to to the mid 50s to lower 60s from east to west...

Just outside of Iowa, the strong cut-off low pressure system will bring some very cold air through the plains. As the low moves over Nebraska, conditions are looking favorable for a strong winter storm to take place with winds in excess of 45 mph and snowfall amounts well over 6 inches! The winter storm may affect areas from O'Neill to Valentine, southward to Imperial and along I80 between North Platte and Grand Island. The winter precip will stay out of Iowa for now, but the winter-type air will once again make its' way down over the weekend.

Later updates will update the precipitation forecast, and contain some storm total precipitation amounts.

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Rainy Week Ahead

The weekend has been fairly enjoyable, with warm temperatures and mainly clear skies allowing temperatures to reach the upper 60s to upper 70s over Iowa. It was fairly windy this afternoon, with the southerly winds 15-25 mph across much of the state. A weak cold front has now entered the state, turning the winds to the north/northwest across northwest Iowa and increasing speeds to the 10-20 mph while the rest of the state has calmed a bit. The switch in winds will bring in a bit cooler air for tomorrow and for the rest of the week. Beyond this cold front passage, another strong system will be coming onshore tonight and work into and past the Rockies by Tuesday. This system is responsible for the title you see on this post, as it will bring in rain chances for the state beginning on Tuesday and potentially lasting the rest of the week!

Tonights' lows will range from the lower 40s in extreme northwest Iowa, to the upper 40s and lower 50s over the rest of the state. Highs tomorrow will be hampered by the cold front passage and associated cloud cover. Ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s from north to south over much of the state. Monday night will see low temperatures approaching freezing once again over some parts of the state. Mid 30s over northeast Iowa, mid 30s to lower 40s from northeast to southwest over the rest of the state.

A weak warm front from the next approaching storm system will begin to impact extreme western Iowa with rainfall by Tuesday afternoon. Clouds will work over the western half of the state throughout most of the afternoon. High temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 50s from east to west across the state. The rainfall will move over the entire western half of the state through the night, and approach the eastern half by morning. Lows overnight on Tuesday should be near 40 to the lower 40s throughout the state. Wednesday and Wednesday night will be rainy throughout the state, with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall. Highs on Wednesday will show the impact of the second cold front of the week; mid 40s over northwest Iowa for highs, increasing to the mid 50s over the southeast. Lows overnight will be helped by clouds and rainfall, but dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s from northwest to southeast.

The cold rain looks to continue on Thursday and Thursday night over a majority of the state. It should finally let up for the western half of the state Thursday night, and likely move out of the state entirely by the weekend. We'll try to warm up for next weekend, but it isn't looking too likely at the moment. Additional updates this week will focus on the rainfall amounts, and how cold of a rain (or snow?) we can get!

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Freezing!

Nearly everywhere besides the southeast quarter of the state saw freezing or below freezing conditions last night. The lowest temperature came from northwest Iowa, specifically near the Spencer and Sibley areas. Low temperatures reported there were 25 and 24 degrees respectively. My house near Terril, IA recorded a low of 25.7 degrees... An image of the automated reporting stations across Iowa and what they reported for lows this morning is below:




Look for slightly warmer temperatures tonight with some clouds moving into the state. It will still be calm, and temperatures are still likely to be pretty chilly when you awake and are heading to work tomorrow ranging from the mid 30s in eastern Iowa, to the lower 40s along the Missouri River. The weekend looks enjoyable, and after my dynamics test tomorrow afternoon I will be happy to post the weekend forecast for everyone to enjoy!

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