Labor Day Weekend Forecast

A wonderful weekend is in store for the 'end of summer' holiday weekend. Sunny skies with warm temperatures for the daytime should be in store for the entire state, and in fact, most of the northern plains. Highs today should be in the lower to mid 80s from east to west this afternoon, light winds and the warm sun will make it feel pretty warm. Overnight tonight expect lows in the lower to mid 50s throughout the state, once again under clear skies and calm winds. Your Saturday should be slightly warmer than today, highs from the mid 80s to upper 80s from east to west, could even see a 90-mark along the Missouri in southwest Iowa. Winds from the south at 10-15 shouldn't bother too many people and their activities. Saturday night lows with a little increased moisture, and with the aid of the wind, will be from the mid 50s in eastern Iowa to the mid 60s along the Missouri River. Sunday will have sunny skies once again, with a bit more fair weather cumulus during the afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s throughout the state; those southerly winds continuing at 5-15 mph. Sunday night lows will range from near 60 along the Mississippi to near 70 along the Missouri.

Your holiday forecast will be sunny and a bit breezy, with winds from the south at 10-20 mph. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s throughout the state, with a bit more humid conditions in place ahead of the oncoming weather system. Overnight lows in the 60s throughout the state will also show off the increased moisture to the state. A few more clouds may work into western Iowa as a cold front begins to push through the Dakotas.

The storm system that is likely to be our next weather maker will likely enter the state on Tuesday, and may last into the early hours of Thursday depending on the speed. Thunderstorms are a good chances with this system, the severe chances are still undetermined at the moment. More details on this system as it approaches early next week.

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Overnight Thunderstorms

Additional thunderstorms are once again developing just ahead of the cold front, from northeast Nebraska through portions of extreme northwest Iowa. Previous thunderstorms that were severe warned in northwest Iowa (Lyon county) moved northeast into southern Minnesota where some severe warned storms continued to occur.

This line of thunderstorms in portions of Nebraska and Iowa are becoming more organized, as the individual cells move east-northeast and the line slowly progresses nearly southeast overnight. One cell in the tail end of the line, currently in Wayne county, has become severe warned with the potential for three-quarter inch hail. Additional severe warnings may occur throughout the night with the potential for large hail, and damaging winds.

These storms may be slow to progress eastward tonight, due to the slow movement of the front and overall northeast movement of the individual cells. Storms may approach the northern I35 corridor around 1 AM; but may not reach areas such as the Des Moines metro until nearly sunrise tomorrow if they continue to develop southward. Current models and forecasts indicate that these storms may not extend any further south than approximately the highway 20 corridor. Additional updates on the storms isn't likely until early tomorrow.

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Wednesday's Storms Update #2

Thunderstorms moved across the state earlier today, providing some thunder and lightning for central and eastern Iowa. Clearing occurred behind this line as it rapidly deteriorated over eastern Iowa the past couple of hours. The sunshine has allowed for ample instability across western Iowa. Storms have developed near the weak front in extreme northwest Iowa, currently one is severe warned in northern Lyon county. Other storms are beginning to form both south and east of the severe warned storm, and may also be capable of large hail in the next few hours.

The SPC has issued a discussion stating that a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued within the next hour or two if storms continue to develop and become severe. Expect storms to move northeast at 25-35 mph throughout the evening... Later updates on the severe weather threat and watch issuance information may occur.

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Wednesday's Storms Update #1

A line of showers and thunderstorms is working across the state this morning. Currently they are located from the I35 corridor in the north, stretching south/southwest through Fort Dodge, Audubon, and down south of Omaha, NE. These storms do extend about 25 miles both east/west of the line of cities mentioned. Some impressive lightning currently in Ames with the leading edge of storms; and other embedded storms that also contain lightning. The strongest cells are currently featured in southwest Iowa, with radar indicating that they are producing some heavy rainfall. Some portions of west-central Iowa have seen over a half-inch from the line of storms earlier, Sioux City, Denison, and Harlan included.

Expect this line of storms to move to the southeast fairly slow this morning. Some clearing skies are likely to occur behind this line and ahead of the actual cold front, this may set the stage for some isolated severe weather this afternoon. The SPC has highlighted portions of western Iowa in a slight risk for the potential for a few storms being capable of damaging winds and large hail. This risk for severe weather won't likely be realized until the late afternoon hours, as continued heating and lift along the front are enough to initiate the thunderstorms. Later updates will address the timing and better define the potential areas to be affected.

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Wednesday & Thursday Thunderstorms

A cold front that is currently creating thunderstorms over the Dakotas will continue to move eastward through the nighttime hours. A few of these thunderstorms, or showers, may reach northwest Iowa by sunrise tomorrow. Although these showers and storms may not last too long beyond sunrise, their cloud cover is likely to stick just ahead of the front for a good portion of the morning. However, further ahead of the front and potentially along the front, clear(ing) skies should occur to allow the warm-up into the 80s over the state for highs.

This clearing along with increase in overall moisture with southerly winds, should allow for moderate instability ahead of the front in western and central Iowa. With continued frontal forcing, and some enhanced lift due to positive vorticity advection, thunderstorms do appear on the probable side. Although there are some negatives to the development of storms, it does appear that there will be sufficient moisture, instability, and lift to produce the storms. The severe threat with these storms appears limited by the lack of sufficient shear. Multicell clusters, or possible lines of storms along the front appear to be the main storm mode that could occur tomorrow. A few of the storms may be able to produce gusty winds, and some marginally severe hail during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Overnight lows on Wednesday should range from the mid 50s in northwest Iowa, to lower to mid 60s across the rest of the state. Showers and thunderstorms chances are in the forecast for all but extreme northwest Iowa. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday morning along the I35 corridor, with these chances shifting to the eastern third of the state by late afternoon. The severe weather chances once again seem quite low with the lack of overall instability, shear, and good lifting, along with others. Highs Thursday should be in the lower to mid 80s across the state; with overnight lows in the 50s across a majority of the state, a few low 60s are possible in southeast Iowa where the front is just moving through.

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Chilly Starts...

The past few mornings have definitely had the feel of fall, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50's throughout the state. Our neighbors up north (Minnesota) had freeze/frost warnings out last night, as lows dipped into the mid to upper 20's!! Tonight and following nights shouldn't be nearly as cool as the previous nights have been, with southerly winds increasing into mid-week we should see warming temperatures through Wednesday. Wednesday brings in the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the state, with a cold front moving into the state. More details on any severe weather chances with this event will come in later updates...

Today's highs should warm nicely under clear sunny skies, especially after our morning start of well below normal temperatures. Mid 70s to mid 80s should be expected from northeast to southwest, with winds slowly shifting around to east to southeast. Overnight tonight you could see lows in the upper 40s once again in northeast Iowa, otherwise lower to mid 50s across the majority of the state. Tuesday's highs will vary from the mid 70s to mid 80s once again, majority of the state in the 80s and southerly winds continue to pull some moisture back into the state. Tuesday night lows in the mid 50s over eastern Iowa, where the western half of the state should see upper 50s and lower 60s along the Missouri River. The warmer temperatures in the west should be attributed to stronger winds just ahead of the cold front, and the potential for some cloud cover overnight as the front approaches.

The cold front should be in the state by Wednesday's sunrise, with the potential for a few showers to be ongoing. Otherwise cloudy skies along the front as it continues to push east/southeast over the state during the afternoon hours. Highs on Wednesday should range from the upper 70s to mid 80s, mainly north to south. The best chances of precip through Wednesday afternoon should be for the northwest quarter of the state. Wednesday night will feature showers and thunderstorms possible over much of the state, the only dry areas through the night may be both extreme northwest Iowa and extreme southeast Iowa. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s...

The front is seemingly slow to move out, as precip chances linger of the eastern half of the state for Thursday. Highs should range from the lower 80s north to the mid 80s south. Iowa State's home opener football game against South Dakota State should be under partly to mostly cloudy skies, kick-off temperature at 7 PM in the mid 70s with fairly light winds. Thursday night's precip chances only include the southeast quarter of the state, with the chances being fairly minimal. Lows over the state from the mid 50s in the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast where some cloud cover will be lingering.

Friday marks the end of week 1 of school, plus the start of the Labor Day weekend. Highs expected to be within a few degrees of the 80-mark throughout much of the state under mostly sunny skies!

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Fall Semester 2008

My final post on the blog during the summer of 2008, as I return to classes at Iowa State University tomorrow. This upcoming semester looks like it will be fairly light as far as classwork goes, having only 3 classes: American Indian Studies, Synoptic Meteorology, and Dynamic Meteorology II. But, I also have a 'small' project called senior thesis that I will have to be working on throughout the semester. Other credits for this semester will come from my internship at KICD Radio over the summer. I will also be starting a new internship this semester, I will be a student volunteer at the National Weather Service office in Des Moines, IA.

With my three classes, internship, and senior thesis project, along with all of the other things I usually try to do I should stay fairly busy. I have a few other things that I will like to be doing throughout the semester, including getting some finalized chase summaries on my website, instead of just my blog like they are now. I also want to try to get some new photo galleries up, maybe revamping my current galleries, and editing some previous pictures. Not to mention my potential television debut this fall with the National Geographic show that I was a part of with Tim Samaras, and another mini-show that I believe will be aired on PBS this fall.

Plenty of things going on, and I will try to keep this updated with some of those stories along with your daily weather updates that everybody enjoys. Look forward to maybe having some more photography opportunities too...

Another update with this weeks' forecast is coming tomorrow! After a chilly start this morning...

Note: Almost forgot to mention this again, but thanks to all who visit as the blog surpassed the 10,000 visitor mark last week!

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Thunderstorms?!?

A cold frontal passage today will bring thunderstorm chances to a large portion of the state today. Some of these thunderstorms may be able to bring gusty winds, and small hail; however, these look to be few and far between. The SPC has only slated a 'See Text' for some portions of the state, meaning that the risk is fairly low. A small portion of northern Iowa is under a slight risk, meaning that we may see a storm or two become severe this afternoon/evening with marginally severe hail or damaging winds. Thunderstorms should continue to expand south and east through the nighttime hours, leaving central Iowa in the likely category for thunderstorms tonight. Storms may linger over the southeastern half of Iowa during the morning tomorrow, but give way to only afternoon cloudiness. The remainder of the weekend should be dry over the state...

Weekend temperatures should be quite seasonal, with highs today in the 80s throughout. Lows tonight will range significantly, depending on if you are ahead of the cold front to see the humid conditions continue or behind the cold front with clear skies. Upper 60s in southeast Iowa, with mid to upper 50s in northwest Iowa behind the front, this leaving the remainder of the state with lower to mid 60s. Saturday's highs should be in the lower to mid 80s from north to south across the state, with partly cloudy skies. Sunday's highs should range from the upper 70s to mid 80s from northeast to southwest, once again under partly cloudy skies. Lows for the weekend should range from the lower 50s to upper 50s, on a roughly north to south basis.

The next update to the blog will come from my apartment in Ames, IA as college starts back up on Monday. More information on semester 7 of 8 in the next update as well...

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Last Week of Summer?!?

Well, maybe not as far as the weather is concerned. But, many students are heading back to school mid-week this week, or are beginning next week, thus this is their last week of summer. Monday was a nice day for the state, seeing highs in the 80s and only some gusty winds to hamper any outdoor activities. Today should see highs in the 80s throughout the state once again, with the winds a little lighter. Lows tonight should be within a degree or two of the 60-degree mark. The skies should stay clear to partly cloudy for Wednesday and Wednesday night, highs expected to be in the 80s once again. Lows overnight should be in the lower to mid 60s as southerly winds pump some increased moisture into the state.

This increased moisture looks to bring in the chance of thunderstorms beginning on Thursday, and continuing into Thursday night. These chances are still fairly small, with them isolated over eastern Iowa during the day Thursday. Thursday night the isolated showers and storms will be possible over mainly the central and eastern thirds of the state. A more widespread and greater chance of showers and thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Friday night as a cold front begins to move into the state. The severe weather chances with any of these thunderstorms risks is unknown at this time, but may be more defined with later updates.

Temperatures during the latter half of the week should be in the lower 80s on Thursday, with the cloudy skies. Overnight lows on Thursday in the mid 60s due to the increased moisture and cloudy skies. Friday's highs will range throughout the 80s across the state, the wider range due to any lingering cloud cover or otherwise sunshine. We enter the weekend with lows on Friday ranging from near 60 in the northwest to the upper 60s in southeast Iowa.

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August 14 Storm Images

I was sent a few pictures of the storms that were rolling across portions of central Iowa last night by Rob Wadsworth, from Alta, IA. He managed to grab some nice images of the entire storm that was located over Hamilton county from near Pocahontas, IA. This storm was severe warned for a short while, with the potential to produce nickel sized hail and damaging winds. The only report from this storm was a measured 59 mph gust near Williams, IA.




Images courtesy Rob Wadsworth


I'm glad readers can enjoy the blog, and feel free to send me any stories/pictures that you have of storms while they are near you and you may also be a part of the postings here on the Iowa Chaser blog!

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