A Short Break

The severe risk of the 29th wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been over the state of Iowa. Although several tornado reports were received during the early nighttime hours, thankfully the storms did not have a lot of energy to work with. No injuries or fatalities were reported with these tornadoes that occurred mainly in the southern two-thirds of the state. Damage surveys were completed for tornadoes that occurred over Clarke, Warren, Lucas, Marion, Mahaska, and Dallas Counties yesterday (May 30), they can be found here. Other reports of tornadoes over parts of central Iowa were received late Thursday night while a line of storms were making their way across the state. No surveys have been completed for these storms, although some damage was reported with these tornadoes or straight-line wind events.

Currently the only threats that we have over the state are some of the flooding that is occurring and did occur. Yesterday saw major flooding occurring across portions of Ames, IA near campus of Iowa State and over other areas of town. Moderate flooding is continuing today in vicinity to Marshalltown, Des Moines, Colfax, and Van Meter. Minor flooding is also occurring across a large portion of the rivers in central and southern Iowa. This flooding should subside as warm temperatures and clear skies allow for plenty of evaporation.

The clear skies and warm temperature are much improved for the forecast instead of cloudy skies or severe thunderstorms. Of course, most people who follow the weather during the months of June in Iowa it is only a matter of time before the warm temps and clear skies give way to stormy weather once again. Some small thunderstorm chances are in the forecast for the weekend, however our next big storm system looks to come in for Monday which may bring in the chance for severe weather once again. Looking even further ahead in the forecast brings in mild temperatures, mainly 70s and 80s, with another strong storm system coming into the forecast for the Thursday time frame.

Temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s across the state, slight chances of thunderstorms through in the evening and early overnight. The best chance for these thunderstorms will be over the northeast quarter of the state, an isolated severe storm is also not be ruled out at this point. Lows tonight in the mid 50s to lower 60s from north to south across the state, with once again the slight chance of a thunderstorm over mainly northeast Iowa. Sunday's highs in the lower and mid 80s throughout the state as winds shift from northerly to more westerly (10-20 mph); Another great weekend day as we enter the month of June. Overnight lows on Sunday will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, increasing moisture as winds begin to shift southward will also yield to slight thunderstorms chances for western Iowa overnight.

The southerly winds, increasing moisture, and the movement of another storm system towards the plains states will give way to another chance of severe weather over the state on Monday and Tuesday. Although both chances will become better defined in the coming days, it appears that all modes of severe weather (hail, wind, and tornadoes) may be possible. More details on these severe threats as the events become better defined...

I'm currently also going through the hundreds of photos from the chase trip last week and early this week. I hope to have a majority of those online tomorrow morning sometime and will likely make a special post to reflect those additions.

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May 29: HIGH RISK in Iowa/Nebraska

6:25 PM Update: Several clusters of thunderstorms are currently affecting portions of southeast South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, and central Kansas. A line from approximately Kearney, NE to Grand Island, NE is currently being affected by a line of storms that are capable of producing tornadoes. These storms have had a history of producing tornadoes and may continue to do so as the night progresses. Additional thunderstorms are expected across eastern Nebraska, and western Iowa as we enter the nighttime hours. Currently, it is believe that the severe threat will continue late into the night, as the storms have the capability of tornadoes, large hail, and especially damaging winds. More updates are possible as storms begin to enter the state...

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The SPC has put areas of western Iowa under a high risk of severe weather for this afternoon, evening and even overnight. Other large portions of the state are under a moderate or slight risk for severe weather as well. Today's setup includes a warm front that is likely to be draped near the Missouri River Valley, a dryline across central Nebraska and a low pressure system in northern Nebraska or southern South Dakota. The combination of these surface features, along with warm temperatures and high dew points within the warm sector will combine to produce strong supercell thunderstorms. With wind fields being favorable for both low level shear and overall storm relative shear values, the risk of tornadoes is high. Storms should develop late this afternoon along the dryline in central Nebraska, with additional development possible along the warm front or other convective boundaries in the warm sector likely in the late afternoon.

Storms should move mainly east or northeast, typically between 20-35 mph. These storms should be able to remain discrete throughout the afternoon, evening and early nighttime hours. While remaining discrete, the risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and potentially strong tornadoes will exist across eastern Nebraska and northwestern Iowa. Overnight, storms will congeal into a large MCS, capable of producing strong damaging winds, large hail and the potential for tornadoes. This MCS will evolve over much of the state of Iowa during the overnight hours with these risks of severe weather.

This is a very dangerous situation that has been indicated by the forecasts, and by forecasts throughout the national weather service. People are going to be urged to pay very close attention to the weather as it may rapidly change and become increasingly dangerous. I will likely be out chasing in northwest Iowa, relaying reports to local officials if severe weather does occur. Hopefully we will have a safe day of severe weather across the area...

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May 21-27 Chase & Travel

Today finds the severe weather threat for the plains diminishing, with only minimal chances for severe weather and nearly no chance of significant severe weather. For this reason I am back on the road to Iowa (490 miles), currently traveling I70 near Salina, KS with under 6 hours of driving remaining. I will be going through plenty of video and pictures over the next few days from this past trip, all-in-all I believe I have 8 tornadoes, wind gusts over 100 mph, and 2"+ hail to show for the trip. It is by far the best chase I have been on and certainly glad that I was a part of the TWISTEX group for this event.

Other happenings on Sunday, including the Iowa tornado that went through Parkersburg and New Hartford areas are disappointed in the stand point that it was a deadly severe weather outbreak this past week. I have not even had time to look back at all of the events that took place even in Kansas, but I do know that people were killed in western kansas on Thursday and/or Friday. If you read through the information on the TWISTEX site and what we are doing, I'm certainly glad to be aiding in scientific research on storms, etc...

My previously scheduled time with TWISTEX has came to an end, and others are going to take in place my role that I had this past week. I will still continue to chase this season, likely throughout the northern plains outbreaks and local chases in my northwest Iowa region. Maybe I will meet up with the TWISTEX crew somewhere in the northern plains and enjoy conservations like I have this week. It was a great week with the storms and the people, so just to put out a nice thanks to Tim Samaras, Carl Young, Dr. Bruce Lee and Dr. Cathy Finley, Tony Laubach, Verne Carlson and his sons, and my fellow car-driver Chris Karstens. Enjoyed meeting several of the other chasers out there this past week, glad that I have not heard of any significant injuries to those that were out there during that crazy two day stretch.

Next chance of good severe weather looks to come on Thursday, with the theat even beting in the northern plains states of SD/NE/MN/IA! More updates on this threat in upcoming day(s).

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May 26 Chase

9:00 PM Update: Now filling up with gas in Stafford, KS and on our way back to Great Bend, KS where we began the day. Intercepted the storm to the east of Pratt, KS as it was tornado warned, however, not too much was observed with the storm going outflow dominant within a half hour of our arrival. Should get to Great Bend before 10 PM and get some supper there...

7:05 PM Update: The chase is already over for the day, dropping south from Great Bend ahead of a clump of thunderstorms until finally coming upon the tornadic warned storm near Greensburg, KS. The storm looked good at times, however once that occurred then the cell had to ingest another cell that was coming up from the south. After three or four cell mergers, the storm had finally had enough and went mainly outflow dominant. In the process of the chase, all four of the vehicles managed to run into golf ball sized and larger (2"+) hail. This managed to put cracks into 3 of the 4 vehicles windshields and dented all four. We'll review the HD video we had running in our dash to hopefully get a few vid-grabs of the hail. In the meantime, headed back to Great Bend, KS to spend the night and in-route to bust through a large line of... Actually now in-bound towards a tornado warned cell that also has tornado reported, so the chase is not quite over!

2:55 PM Update: Been watching the outflow for the past hour plus, it looks to have stalled out on a line from near Medford, OK through Great Bend, KS. Warm front just to the north, dryline well off to the west at this point which is only a small concern at this point. Current tornado watch has us fairly well centered in the middle of it currently...

1:25 PM Update: Sitting just outside of Larned, KS after eating at a local Pizza Hut in town. Now watching Tony Laubach taking some pictures of the local wildlife, cows and goats. After the morning discussion we were aiming more towards the KS/OK border, however now with the warm front positioned well north of the previous forecasts we are going to hold here. Outflow boundary to our east, moving west, may come into play later on this afternoon. Instability is amazing given the very warm and moist air that is present, hopefully the shear can also be realized with some backing winds. Some flat cumulus starting to develop, but feel that another hour or two should start to see the storms develop.

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May 25 Chase

8:10 PM Update: Heading back to Great Bend after today's chase, intercepted several tornadic cells although only one or two showed promise. Came away with several nice images of a rotating meso that was very low to the ground, and also of a nice shelf as the storms continued to gust out. As we sat well south of Rush Center, KS during the past hour we saw several outflow gusts that picked up dust from fields/roadways. Came away with some nice images of that event as well. Not as good as Thursday/Friday, but it wasn't expected to be and overall I didn't think it was a terrible chase. I am sad to hear that instead of the lining crap that we had here, northeastern Iowa got to see a nice supercell that unfortunately may have caused some significant damage.

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6:40 PM Update: Sitting south of Rush Center, KS on the edge of this lining out crap of a line here in Kansas. Doesn't look like much is going to happen here, but not quite over yet. Final update when we are on our way to the hotel later...

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1:00 PM Update: Tornado watch already issued for portions of western/central Kansas and already a few cells and good cumulus cloud fields showing up on radar and visible satellite respectively. We are currently still westward on I70 and look to remain so for the time being. TWISTEX blog was updated with the latest from Tim, today looks to hold some nice hope and tomorrow even better.

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8:00 AM Update: Already up, hopefully with others in the group doing the same, and getting ready to depart for a target in northwestern Kansas. The morning SPC update solidified are concerns about the area, as they introduced a moderate risk with 10% tornado risk, hatched as well for the threat of a potentially significant tornado once again. Sadly this doesn't look to venture too far from Thursday & Friday's storm paths that went through that same area. It isn't going to be the greatest of areas to chase, with the knowledge that all unpaved roads are not in the best of condition. I'm pretty sure that by the time this trip is done, I may very well know northwestern Kansas as good as my home area in northwestern Iowa!

The forecast does look promising, as a strong surface low develops and deepens during the afternoon hours in eastern Colorado. This will provide winds from the southeast over parts of western/central Kansas. These southeasterly winds will provide the area with enhanced low level shear to combine with substantial instability. A pseudo-warm front may be draped across northern Kansas, with dryline across western KS southward into the OK/TX panhandles. The best tornado play will be where the winds locally become southeasterly in response to the low, moisture pooling may also occur in the potential trip point region in western Kansas as well. Does not look to be a bad chase day in western Kansas though at this point.

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1:15 AM Update: After a one-day bust, hopes are not all that bad as at least two more days of chasing is in store for us in Kansas. More information on how tomorrow will play out and our plans will surface tomorrow morning, but currently it looks to be an early departure from Lincoln, NE in order to make a western Kansas target.

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May 24 Chase

8:15 PM Update: We moved slightly east mid-afternoon to the south of Aurora, NE to await the dryline that never came. The dryline ended up actually retreating to the west to the south of Grand Island or the I80 corridor and even north where the dryline was still moving east the storms struggled. Although several chasers/spotters reported a wall cloud or funnel, these reports came without warnings from the NWS so the validity of any rotation is suspect at this point. Maybe some more posts tonight once we look over some things from days past, and ahead for the next couple of days potential. Overall, today couldn't be as good as the past two and most chasers busted unless you were somehow lucky enough to be in northern Oklahoma.

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3:45 PM Update: Still awaiting some good signs of convection, some small cells to our northwest that may be able to do something. At this time however, they don't look like much. Still working on issues with the mesonets, etc., will hopefully be ready to go shortly as tornado watch has already been issued for the area.

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3:00 PM Update: Currently just to the south of Grand Island, awaiting the dryline to develop here in central/eastern Nebraska. Managing some minor repairs still, but doesn't look to be too much longer before we start to see something on the day. Definitely does not look to be as good as the past two, but hopes still good that we'll see something today! Overall the reasoning behind not as high tornado hopes includes the fact that overall shear is not as good, with more southerly flow at the surface to go along with southwesterly flow aloft. Instability (moisture) not as good either, but still sufficient.

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12:00 PM Update: Currently on the roads of Kansas, just south of Nebraska and our target area for the day in southeast Nebraska. Today doesn't seem nearly as good as the previous two, but the entire group is still confident that tornadic supercells will not be lacking today. Today may actually turn out slightly better to the fact that we won't have continual development and a training of tornadic supercells. Or this could also be a bad thing as if we lose the one tornadic storm, then there is nothing else to fall back on. Either way, today looks to be another solid day of chasing for many who have taken off this holiday weekend to get their storm chasing 'vacation'. Currently the best forecast will have a cold front over SD/NE with a dryline as well over parts of southern NE/KS/OK/TX. Surface winds from the southeast should favor convergence along these fronts with winds to the southwest or west. Instability should not be lacking, even though dewpoints are not nearly as high as yesterday in Kansas. Should not be quite as exciting or early as yesterday's beginning, so I should have another update later this afternoon.

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May 23 Chase

Several Updates will be posted within this post, the posts will be in chronological order with the most recent update being first. The time of the posts will be shown in bold for ease of use (All times are CDT).

12:45 AM Update: Another late update after another amazing day, at least 3 tornadoes (likely more) around the town of Quinter, KS. We began with a nice cone to the south and west of Quinter, which included a satellite tornado. We then captured at least two more tornadoes north of Quinter which included some intense moments with a strong RFD gust that came around and wrap around this tornado. Once this occurred, we were left with a large tornado in front of us in which was at least a mile wide if not greater. Once we managed to get out of that situation, we ended up not having any great road options to other storms to the south and were left with only some nice views of potential RFD's, etc... I'm sure there is plenty of video/pictures of all of those tornadoes that we captured as well. Today's chase facts included a total of 9 hours, 10 minutes of chasing and 269 total miles. Tornado count for the two-day adventure thus far is 7, potentially up to 9 after video review. More to go as at least two more days of chasing is left to go.

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3:15 PM Update: First tornado warning of the day to the south of Gove, KS once again. We are just north and getting ready to turn south to intercept the storm, very large hail is going to be a concern today. But, the bigger concern will undoubtedly be the tornadoes that are likely throughout the I70 corridor. Updates are not likely until we reach the end of the day now...

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12:15 PM Update: Just fueling up in Hays, KS and getting ready to depart and head northwest on I70 back fairly close to where we began the day yesterday. Today once again looks like a high quality chase day, with a dryline draped across western Kansas and a warm front across Kansas from northwest to southeast. The best threat of tornadoes looks to extend across Kansas, specifically northwest and north-central; then also over parts of western Nebraska. Spent the morning getting the car cleaned out after an adventure in mud, rain, etc... (Another story that I didn't mention last night). As for yesterday, if you are interested in some greater detail of what myself and a few others saw you can check out Chris Karstens Blog. That'll be it for this update, time to check out some maps for today and pick out a nice target, and also find some food.

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May 22 Chase

Several Updates will be posted within this post, the posts will be in chronological order with the most recent update being first. The time of the posts will be shown in bold for ease of use (All times are CDT).

12:45 AM Update: Spending the night in Hays, KS after a tremendous day of chasing throughout north-central Kansas. The day totaled ~8 hours of chasing fun while covering just over 300 miles (307 to be exact). We had kind of a late start out of Goodland today, but that turned out alright as we bagged at least 4 tornadoes around the Hoxie, KS area. One of the four included the multi-vortex that was near Hozie and was quite tremendous in its' circulation; ended up within a mile of that as it crossed highway 24. To the northeast of Hoxie along highway 23 also held some fun as we had two ground circulations develop within 100 yards of the mesonets. A solid day with a lot more stories then I have to offer tonight, all the more exciting as we still have at least 3 more days of chasing to go!

3:05 PM Update: Finally got outside of Goodland, KS after getting all of our mesonet problems and logistics out of the way. As we left we got a dose of some pea to just above dime sized hail and the storm went severe warned. Now headed east on I70 and then will likely dive south or await the arrival of a line of storms, which now include a tornado warned storm. Very windy, 35-45 knots on average, with plenty of tumbleweeds to catch in grills like Verne Carlson already has. The fun is about to begin with storm motions 40-50 mph and plenty of them. As stated, Verne Carlson is with the crew and actually has his live streaming online, check it out here.

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9:00 AM Update: With several hours of waiting on our hands, we are stuck looking at everything you can look at as far as model runs and mesoanalysis go. Samaras, Laubach, Carlson, and others should have to depart Denver by 11 AM CDT or within 2 hour to make it to Goodland, KS by 2 PM CDT as planned. Model forecasts from last night and this morning are liking a surging dryline, but I'm not sure if I want to believe whole-heartedly in that decision. The warm front is also shown to not be nearly as far north as previous forecasts, and although it should surge northward it has a question in how far north it may make it. I believe that we'll drop south from Goodland, maybe a bit east if the dryline does look like it will make that surge. Storm motion are expected to be nearly north, ranging from 30-40 knots, but any strong right-mover should be able to go northeast or maybe easterly at a pace of only 20 kts (I hope). I may throw in another update this morning once I hear word from Tim, otherwise look for the next update to come early/mid afternoon as we make our adjustments.

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8:00 AM Update Awoke to the sounds of constructions workers leaving the Super 8 here in Goodland, although I'm sure there are plenty of chasers around as well in town. The rumor that Colby, KS was chalked full of chasers was true, the Discovery/TIV/DOW circus group was staying at the Super 8 over there. Plenty of chasers out today and likely the remainder of the weekend as this is shaping up to be one of the better outbreaks of the year, with the addition of it being in extremely chaseable territory. Thus far the plan for today will include sitting back and relaxing here in Goodland until ~2 PM CDT when the remainder of the group will hopefully arrive. After that, we'll head off to our best target area which will likely come a bit south, maybe east, from where we are now in Goodland.

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May 21 Travel Day

Several Updates will be posted within this post, the posts will be in chronological order with the most recent update being first. The time of the posts will be shown in bold for ease of use (All times are CDT).


8:15 PM Update: We have arrived in Goodland, KS at the Super 8 which features only 2 more rooms left (both smoking). Lady at the front desk shared that Colby, KS hotel rooms were booked with various chasers so it was wise that we kept moving west and arrived here. Several severe thunderstorms just 50 more miles to the west, however no need to drive another hour to get to them and another hour back to a hotel room so we've stopped here and will likely spend the rest of the night looking at tomorrow's prospects and watching some television. This will likely be the last update until tomorrow morning when the May 22 chase post can get underway. Here are the details thus far from the trip:

May 20/21 Miles: 711
May 20/21 Time: 11 Hrs, 10 min

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5:15 PM Update: Although some thunderstorm activity has initiated along the dryline, we don't feel like a chase taking us further north is worth our time. With tomorrow's target likely be in northwestern Kansas, we've hopped off of I80 and are zigging and zagging down to McCook, NE where we will then likely continue into Kansas. Although this is likely to be a fairly long drive, this should set us up for nearly no driving for tomorrows' target. Both Tony Laubach and Verne Carlson have headed out today and are around the northeastern Colorado storms. We will be keeping an eye on storms as they continue to develop along the dryline, maybe a good show can be along our route?! Next update likely to come once we've reached our destination for the night.

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12:50 PM Update: On the road, getting all settled into our Cobalt, and enjoying the 200-some XM Satellite radio stations. The SPC expanded todays' risk in the far western regions with an increased hail threat as well. We should reach Ogallala, NE before 6 PM MDT and thus have time to view any storms that are in extreme southwest Nebraska and vicinity. The day 2 outlook from the SPC upgraded to moderate risk and had some nice wording in place, thus tomorrow looks like a great day for chasing in Kansas! Next update will likely be when we reach Ogallala, NE.

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8:15 AM Update: The ISU crew (Chris Karstens & Jayson Prentice) will depart today from Ames, IA and begin our journey out west for a several day event of severe weather. TWISTEX doesn't look to become operational until Thursday, with others arriving in Denver this evening. The ISU crew will treat this as a travel day, and a potential chase day if storms can fire along I80 in southwestern Nebraska or in extreme northeastern Colorado. Previous departure was expected to be around the current time, however with the severe threat being limited the departure from Ames has been moved back to ~Noon today. We may just leave slightly earlier than that, as the SPC has expanded the slight risk and latest RUC forecasts have some favorable parameters within our target area of traveling.

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Chase Forecast: May 21/22

TWISTEX will become active tomorrow as all involved prepare for several days of active severe weather in the western plains. Chris Karstens and I will depart Ames early tomorrow morning and hit I80 to the west through Nebraska, hopefully arriving mid-afternoon. Although Wednesday does hold some potential for severe weather, mainly for large hail, the day will mainly be a travel day unless something drastic can occur with the forecast. Nonetheless, the option will be there to go after a storm that may be able to form along the high plains of NE/CO, maybe Wyoming?

Wednesday should feature a deepening low over northeastern Colorado, which in response will allow for strong moisture return into the high plains. The corresponding moisture return will lead towards a very narrow axis of a warm sector just east and north of the low. Currently the SPC outlooks indicate the best chance being north and northeast of the low, with lesser concern on areas just east of the low. Further south along a trough, or pseudo-dryline the capping will be of major concern with very warm 700 temperatures and thus no risk has been outlined. The tornado threat is likely minimal with the lack of shear and overall instability that will be featured, thus a large hail threat is the main concern for this forecast. Likely to have multiple clusters of thunderstorms to the north of the low over the Nebraska panhandle and southeastern Wyoming where surface based CAPE values between 500-1500 J/kg will yield storms capable of producing large hail. Further south to the east and southeast of the low, while moisture and overall instability should not be a problem; 700mb temperatures of 11-15C will likely hamper development. This area may be an area to watch though, as if a storm can breach the capping inversion it does seem that conditions are favorable for severe storms as well. Beings the terrain of southeastern Wyoming is not that favorable, plus the idea that the threat on Thursday will also be near the NE/KS borders it does look like we'll play along the NE/CO/KS corners and hope for that rogue storm.

Thursday is coming together for a significant severe weather event along the high plains. Continued low pressure system in northeastern Colorado will continue to be in place, with the aid of a strong warm front and dryline will focus the severe weather threat.


Strong moisture return as indicated by the green arrows will continue throughout the day on Thursday, providing mid 60s dewpoints throughout the warm sector. Upper level support with good vorticity advection and strong divergence should be located across western Kansas and Nebraska. The best low level and overall shear does however seem to be limited the further south you go, indicated by the blue-lined area on the map. This confines the best tornado potential to the southwestern portions of Nebraska, with perhaps a good threat somewhat south along the dryline in the northern half of Kansas. Capping should be in place throughout the warm sector, however, a breakable cap does seem to be indicated by models over the northern half of Kansas and throughout Nebraska in the warm sector. Storm motions are likely to be north/northeastward, with any strong supercells being able to move east/northeast instead. For this reason, the best tornadic target area is likely to be placed in southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas along the dryline (indicated by black outline). Large hail seemingly will be the main threat of the day, with damaging winds also likely. A lot of time for details in the forecast to be worked out and I will continue to update the forecast tomorrow and on Thursday morning.

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