Football Forecast

It is that time of the week again, high school football across the state of Iowa will get underway tomorrow evening. And Saturday is the big intra-state rivalry game of Iowa State vs Iowa! I've decided to try something new out this week, so not only will I give the forecast for both Iowa and Iowa State and their game, but showcase some of the top games in the state for high school. But, first let's start off with Iowa State vs Iowa:

Pre-game festivities may be a little wet, with a good chance of showers throughout the morning hours. Temperatures should be in the mid 60s, with calm winds and cloudy skies. By kick-off we should see 68 degrees, winds variable under 5 mph, and once again some more isolated showers. Throughout the game, temperatures should slowly rise to near 70, with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers possible. Winds should remain variable, and under 5 mph.


Friday Nigh Football Forecast:

Class 3-A
#5 Marion (2-0) vs. #7 Central DeWitt (2-0)
The first of four forecasts of two top 10 teams in their class facing off. The kick-off temperature of 70 degrees will feel nice, dropping to 65 by game end. Mostly cloudy skies, but with occasional showers likely. Winds generally easterly, under 5 mph.

Class 2-A
#1 Solon (2-0) vs. #9 Wilton (2-0)
Sticking around our Cedar Rapids & Iowa City areas, this match-up should start off with a temperature near 70 degrees, dropping to 66 degrees. Mostly cloudy skies with the occasional rain showers slowly the pace of the game here as well. Winds will be generally from the east, but too light to matter (under 5 mph).

Class 1-A
#1 Aplington-Parkersburg (2-0) vs. #8 Grundy Center (2-0)
A-P is showing that they can recover from anything thrown at them, with the tornado earlier this summer, the team is off to a great start and is even going to be featured on NBC in the coming weeks. The kick off should yield a temperature of 69 degrees, with a steady drop to 64. Mostly cloudy skies will prevail, however, only a slight chance for a shower or two during the game. Winds should be northeasterly, but under 5 mph.

#3 West Lyon (1-1) vs. #10 Lawton-Bronson (1-1)
Off to northwest Iowa, will lead us to Inwood, IA; home of the West Lyon Wildcats. Game should start off with a temperature near 68, dropping down to 62 by game end. Skies should be partly cloudy, thus should stay dry if you are at this game. Winds like the rest of the state should be light and variable.

Eight-man
#3 North Sentral Kossuth (2-0) vs. Graettinger-Terril (2-0)
Staying in northwest Iowa for this match-up in 8-man, with G/T being ranked in another poll, plus it being my high school will lead me to forecast this game. A 68 degree kick-off temperature will drop to 63 by the end of the game. Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, but the northwest half of the state should stay dry during game time. Winds once again light and variable.

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September 11 Showers/Thunderstorm

4:45 PM Update: A band of showers and an isolated thunderstorm continues to develop across portions of central and western Iowa. Currently this line extends from near Grundy Center to the southwest through Ames, to Guthrie Center and then expands to include a good portion of the southwest corner of Iowa. You can check out the latest radar/satellite combination on the Iowa Chaser homepage.

These showers/thunderstorms continue to develop and move northeastward over time this afternoon and into the early nighttime hours, likely expanding in coverage. The strongest storms are in southern Nebraska currently, and thus the heaviest rainfall amounts with these storms may still come later for southwestern Iowa. Heavy rain and a few rumbles are likely to be the strongest that the storms become, total rainfall amounts should range between a quarter of an inch to an inch in some locations.

A few current rainfall totals:

ISU Campus: 1.10
Brooklyn: 1.01
Waterloo: 0.99
Cedar Rapids: 0.91
Spencer: 0.74
Sioux City: 0.62
Ames Airport: 0.48
Dubuque: 0.36
Mason City: 0.33
Ottumwa: 0.10
Des Moines: 0.01

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Warmer and Wetter

After last nights' well below normal temperatures of mid 30s to lower 40s, including a record tying low in Ottumwa, IA, we'll be on our way back up in the temperature side of things. However, this will come with increased south winds and thus increased moisture. Meaning that we can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms over at least part of the state beginning on Wednesday night and continuing through Saturday night.

Tonight's lows should range from the low 40s in eastern Iowa to the lower 50s in western Iowa. This difference in lows will likely be a result of some stratus clouds moving into the western third of the state. These clouds may hang around somewhat during the day tomorrow, with at least other fair weather cumulus developing much like today. This mix of clouds will keep temperatures in the range of 70s from northeast (low 70s) to southwest (upper 70s).

Wednesday night will have the first wave move just north of the state, which may lead to some scattered showers or thunderstorms over mainly northwest Iowa. Lows overnight should range from the low 50s in eastern Iowa under clear skies, to the lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies in western Iowa. Additional energy coming off of the trough located along the Rockies will continue to pose the potential for more showers and thunderstorms across much of the state. These showers/thunderstorms and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the lower to mid 70s throughout the state. These showers and thunderstorms should become limited to the southern half of the state for Thursday night, with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s from north to south across the state under mostly cloudy skies.

The trough that briefly stalled near the Rockies will begin to move onto the plains during the day on Friday, and move through the state overnight into Saturday. This will leave very little time between rounds of showers/storms for the state. Increased chances begin on Friday afternoon and continue through Saturday afternoon for a majority of the state. By Saturday evening, the showers/storms should be over mainly eastern Iowa and ending for the entire state by Saturday night. Temperatures on Friday should be in the lower to mid 70s across the state. Lows overnight in the mid 50s in northwest Iowa to near 60 across much of southern Iowa. Saturday's highs should be fairly even throughout the state, ranging from the low 70s to mid 70s. We'll end the week with overnight lows dropping once again into the 50s throughout the state.

So a quick first glance at your Iowa State vs Iowa football game has a chance of showers or isolated thunderstorm throughout game-time. Temperatures should be near 70 at kick-off and only increase a couple of degrees, winds luckily will be fairly light at 5-10 mph, mainly southerly.

Notes: Another update to the forecast is likely on Thursday, and a final forecast for the Iowa State vs Iowa football game will be made on Friday.
You may also notice some visual changes to the blog, as I decided to expand the width and separate the blog posts with a more defined line.

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Wet & Chilly

Not a bad day today with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures around the 70-degree mark here in Ames. Other portions of the state have seen occasional showers this afternoon, with cooler temperatures at those times. These conditions will be even worse come tomorrow afternoon, where the rain will be more heavier and widespread, and the temperatures even cooler. Thankfully it will be a one day occurrence, after which we'll warm up slowly and see some sunshine before more chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Mostly cloudy skies throughout the state tonight will keep low temperatures a little warmer. Expect showers to begin to move into the western third of the state by sunrise, and slowly overtake the state into the afternoon hours. Lows overnight should range from the mid 40s in northwest Iowa to the mid 50s in southeast Iowa. With mostly cloudy and/or rainy skies throughout the day tomorrow across the state, highs will be extremely hampered. The state will see highs only in the upper 50s or lower 60s, with northerly winds 10-20 mph. The rain, and most of the cloud cover, will be limited to eastern Iowa during the early nighttime hours. By sunrise the state should have partly cloudy skies throughout, with the temperatures dropping quickly.

Monday night lows will be very chilly, the coldest since springtime, as upper 30s to mid 40s will be present throughout the state. The mention of frost has been thrown around a few times in various weather discussions, but if it does occur it will be very localized and most likely in north-central Iowa.

Beyond Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday should see only partly cloudy skies and warming temperatures ahead of our next storm system. Tuesday's highs in the mid 60s to near 70 from east to west across the state, with winds turning southerly with time. Tuesday night lows will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s from east to west again, with those southerly winds having a good effect in western Iowa. Wednesday's highs will be in the 70s throughout the state, from east to west in gradient. Wednesday night begins the next chance of precipitation in the form of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Lows overnight should be in the mid 50s to near 60 from northeast to southwest across the state...

More details on Wednesday and Thursday rainfall in later updates... The next update will also have a first look at the Iowa State vs Iowa football forecast for Saturday!

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College Football Forecast (Iowa State & Iowa)

Iowa State vs. Kent State
6:00 PM -- Ames, IA

Partly cloudy afternoon skies will allow highs in the lower 70s for the tailgating before the game. Kickoff temperatures are likely in the upper 60s with a light westerly wind of 5-10 mph. As the game continues into the evening, temperatures will drop to near 60 as the Cyclones near a victory. Winds are likely to continue to be fairly light at 5-10 mph, but may shift more southerly. A few showers may begin to move near the stadium by the end of the game, but it will definitely become cloudier as the game goes on. A bit chilly, with the potential for some sprinkles late in the game, but it should be an exciting game nonetheless.


Iowa vs Florida International
11:03 AM -- Iowa City, IA

A chilly morning for tailgating, with temperatures rising from the mid 50s into the mid 60s by kickoff. Winds throughout the game should vary from northwest to southwest, at mainly 5-10 mph. Partly cloudy skies should allow the sunshine to peak through at times, allowing temperatures to near 70 degrees as the game nears end. A nice forecast for what should be an easy win for the Hawkeyes...

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Friday Showers

A weak wave and associated support allowed for a complex of showers to move into the state this morning, and continued to move east/northeast over the state this afternoon into this evening. These showers continue to bring light rain to northeast Iowa this evening, but should move out later tonight. Tonight's high school football games shouldn't see too much of an effect by these showers, unless of course you are in northeast Iowa. The rest of the state should just be chilly and a bit wet from previous rainfall.

The next chance of rainfall as mentioned in previous posts will come Saturday night, over mainly western Iowa. This rainfall will continue during the day on Sunday over much of the state, with chances over the state on Sunday night as well. Highs over the weekend in the mid 60s to mid 70s; lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

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Rain's Already Away

Although forecasts indicated that Gustav may have kept some rain into eastern Iowa tonight, the rain from the remnants is already in eastern Illinois. Gustav moved quicker to the northeast than models had forecasted, thus leaving the state with less rain and a shorter time period in which it fell. Total rainfall amounts ranged from a few hundredths in central Iowa to over 2 inches in areas like Keokuk, Fort Madison, and the Quad Cities. With the cloud cover also moving out quicker than expected, lows tonight will likely range from the mid 40s to lower 50s from northwest to the southeast, however, a majority of the state will be in the 40s.

The weekend will be a mix of mostly cloudy skies, and isolated showers. Skies should be mostly cloudy across the state, with the mix of showers coming in mainly Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Saturday should be in the lower 70s throughout the state, with lows overnight dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s from northwest to southeast. Sunday's highs will vary from northwest to southeast once again, as the trough moves into the state, allowing another cool down in the temperatures. Highs in the mid 60s for northwest Iowa, lower 70s for north-central and northeast Iowa, and lower to mid 70s across the southern half of the state. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s from mainly northwest to southeast.

As mentioned, small chances for showers will be in the forecast for much of the weekend. The best chance does look to be for Saturday night, however, don't be surprised to see isolated showers across the state at any time during the weekend.

Look for the forecasts for both the Iowa State and Iowa home football games this weekend in tomorrow's update.

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Good ol' Gustav

The remnants of the tropical system formerly known as Gustav finally began to move northward this afternoon. This northward track will take them into Missouri, and then into western Illinois, as it picks up speed into the Great Lakes area by Friday. Gustav still has plenty of moisture associated with the low pressure center, as up to 5 inches or even more is possible over portions of MO/IA/IL. Besides the rainfall, the clouds over a large portion of the state will keep high temperatures well below normal tomorrow.

Additional shortwaves will move over the northern plains into this weekend, giving us small chances of showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the next week, with the potential for a few nights of well below normal lows if clear skies and calm conditions occur. For now, we'll look in on the details of what Gustav will have to offer.

Light rain to moderate showers will move into the state tonight, southeast of a Des Moines to Waterloo line. The heaviest rain will occur in the southeast corner of the state, with a rapid decline in rainfall amounts as you move northwest. Tonights' lows will range from the mid 40s in northwest Iowa, to the mid 50s in southeast Iowa where the cloud cover and rain will be occurring. The rain will continue southeast of a Creston to Des Moines to Waterloo to LaCrosse, WI line during the day tomorrow. Highs will range from the lower 70s in the western third of the state, where clear skies may likely prevail. The central and eastern thirds of the state will be socked with cloud cover, leaving temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday night will have the rain moving out, with only light showers remaining to areas that are east of Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the state, with plenty of chilly air filtering in.

Friday into the weekend will see the next system making its' entrance and likely producing showers and a potential thunderstorms. Highs aren't likely to make it above the mid 70s, with lows dropping into the 40s and 50s across the state. More details on the weekend in tomorrow's update.

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Warm Labor Day... Thunderstorms!

What a great weekend! It was nice and warm, actually above average with some of the highs today (Monday) reaching into the upper 80s and 90s throughout the state. Albeit windy during the festivities, the sunshine and temperatures allowed for some amazing outdoor times I'm sure. The overnights through the holiday weekend were on the chilly side, with clear skies and calm conditions quickly occurring after sunset, the lows dropped into the 50s for a majority of the state. Those chillier nights did mean one thing though, great campfire weather!

With the warm weather, and strong winds from the south, this led to some influx of moisture to the state that really hasn't seen more than a few days of solid rain over the entire previous month. A cold front sparked off numerous thunderstorms across the central Dakotas and central Nebraska. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued earlier this evening as a few storm in north-central Nebraska were capable of damaging winds. The storms have weakened with sunset, now scattered showers and thunderstorms exist behind the cold front that is moving across the plains. These storms and showers should continue through most of the overnight, and also redevelop with the sun tomorrow during the late-morning and afternoon hours.

The cold front should move into northwest Iowa during the morning hours tomorrow, with showers and thunderstorms following quickly along or just behind the front. Portions of northwest Iowa may see the best rainfall from the frontal passage as some of the upper level support may still be present during the morning hours. As the front continues to sag southeastward during the day, the upper level features are being displaced to the north. This, along with a few other factors, will likely cause the showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours to remain below severe thunderstorm limits. The total rainfall with the front may also decrease when compared to tonight's and the morning showers/storms. The front and its' showers/storms should be placed from northeast to southwest across the center of Iowa by tomorrow evening. Through the evening hours, and into the overnight, the showers and thunderstorms are likely to become very isolated and even nonexistent as you stretch south. Cloudy skies should be present throughout the southeastern half of the state during the overnight hours, with a shower or two possible.

As for temperatures tonight and into mid-week. Overnight lows tonight should be mild, ranging from near 70 in the southeast to near 60 in the northwest. Some sticky or humid conditions may be present over central and eastern Iowa, as dew points are also into the 60s. Tomorrow's highs will have a wide spread, as the cold front captures northwest Iowa before heating can occur while the southeast portions of the state receive another above average day of temperatures. Northwest Iowa behind the front should see only low 70s, while the southeast corner of the state will once again reach the 90-mark. Everywhere in between should see the upper 70s to mid 80s, as the cold front reaches across the state. Tuesday night temperatures just ahead of the front in southeast Iowa should be in the lower 60s. Across the the diagonal half of the state, lows should be in the 50s. The northwest portion of the state will have the strong influx of cool air, with lows dropping into the 40s.

Looking through the rest of the week, expect highs in the lower to mid 70s, and lows mainly in the 50s. The next chance of precipitation comes in on Friday and may last through the weekend, being widespread across the state. More details on the latter half of the week in later updates!

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Hurricane Gustav

Hurricane Gustav has made landfall this morning along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, at approximately 8:25 central the eye wall came onshore near or just west of the Grand Isle, Louisiana. The storm made landfall as a category two hurricane, with winds sustained at 110 mph, and should weaken through the day and into the overnight hours. The eye is now just about half-way onshore, with a majority of the outer bands to the north of the eye and already affecting areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Besides areas receiving the damaging winds from the hurricane, several tornado warnings exist as the outer bands continue to spin around the center. A few reports of tornadoes have already been received by the NWS offices in New Orleans, and Mobile, AL.

Plenty of other coverage going on out there today to tune into. I do currently have my radar operating and uploading online to view if you wish:

Latest Image
Loop: Flash Player or Java

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