June 7 Chase Account

My chase partner for the day was my actual partner (girlfriend), Alyssa. Although she had been on two other chases with me, the second being this past Thursday, both of them have been busts. We are both happy to say that the third was not the same, as we combined to be on a total of 5 tornado warned storms throughout our journey of central Iowa. We began the journey after I picked up Alyssa from Wallingford, IA and we headed south and east, grabbed some late lunch in Emmetsburg, then awaited for some solid initiation of storms. Several updrafts were trying throughout the area to finally get rooted, and it seemed like the place to do so would be in vicinity of Algona. After the first storm to reach that area became surface based and broke through any inhibition it quickly went severe and tornado warned over Kossuth, Winnebego, and Hancock counties. We unfortunately let that one go and wouldn't catch up to that one...

Our true chase began with two small cells just to the east of Emmetsburg, and watching them we decided to head north towards Fenton. As we neared Fenton on the backside of this storm we saw a few lowerings, however, no significant rotation was noted at that time. Within 10 minutes the two smaller cells seemed to complete their merger and we ended up with the tornado warning. We continued east directly behind, and eventually just south of the rotation noted on radar. However, continued development to the south and west began to interfere with this storm. We finally ditched our first tornado-warned storm at Crystal Lake, at that point deciding to position ourselves right ahead of the new tornado warned storm to our southwest. This storm was much better on radar, and also visually as broad rotation throughout the lowering was noted. A few smaller lowerings within this broad meso were noted just to the north of Wesley, no tornadoes though. We continued on this storm as it neared both Clear Lake and Mason City, taking a route just north of those towns allowed a nice view of the now rotating wall cloud to the north of town. Reports did come in of a brief tornado north of Mason City, however, neither Alyssa or I saw this occur. We continued on this storm, alongside of the rotating wall cloud, a few brief funnels, and the occasional 'spin-up' of dust. Not certain if any of these dust whirls were associated with the rotation above, or if they were occurrences of an RFD, or even just wind gusts with the constantly 'lining-out' storms. Either way, it does sound like at least one of the 'dust-whirls' was reported as a tornado, and until proven otherwise it will count towards the tornado count (a non-condensed tornado). Alyssa doesn't really want to count it, beings it wasn't the classic tornado, but it'll count.

Upon leaving this storm, we then began to slide slowly west, although nearing Clear Lake another storm became tornado warned near the Mason City Airport. At the time we were just a mile east of the airport, looking straight at this supposed rotation that was indicated by radar. We finished off a loop back around and followed this storm to the east of Mason City as it also became outflow dominant. At that point, the only storms that continued to be tornado-warned were a ways south and west of us. With over an hour of daylight left, we dove south towards these cells and intercepted the first tornado-warned cell near Galt. This storm was already outflow, but was a neat sight with rain-bands moving through and blue sky in the background. Unfortunately, with heavy rain already upon us, no good pictures or video were taken of this site (similar to much of the day).

This pretty much ended the day, as we dropped further south our potentially sixth tornado-warned storm of the day had its' warning expire and not reissued. Thus, we end our count with five tornado-warned storms as mentioned above. We once again met up with the TWISTEX crew near a field of wind turbines and gather up a few images of the underside of the shelf and the turbines. A few images may be added tomorrow or later date once they are uploaded to my computer...

Total Mileage: 420 Miles (Overnight in Ames and Return Included)
Total Road-Time: 7 Hours, 30 Minutes (Additional 2 hours, 45 minutes on June 8)
Chase Sights: One Tornado; Multiple Funnels & Rotating Wall Clouds; Wind Gust ~60 mph

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A Collection of 2008 Storm Chasing Images

Beings I've finally been getting some of my images online from the chasing that I've done over the past month, I thought I'd share. To view the complete collection of images, check out my 2008 Storm Chasing Gallery that I'll be adding to throughout the summer. All images below stretch from a May 22 to May 25 stretch that was spent on tornadic storms in the western half of Kansas.


Kansas Rope Tornado



Hoxie, KS Wedge Tornado



HP Supercell Panoramic



Quinter, KS First Tornado)



Central Kansas Wall Cloud

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More Weekend Storms

Well if two straight days of thunderstorms isn't enough for portions of the state, there will only be a one day break before another round of severe storms hits Iowa. Last night saw another round of severe weather, mainly over the southern half of the state, and the most significant once again occurring over the southwest quarter where more tornadoes touched down. Early afternoon storms over portions of NE/SD and northwest Iowa brought the first warnings of the day, mainly for large hail and damaging winds; as well as flash flooding. These storms were just one ingredient that likely hampered additional development along the warm front in northern Iowa during the later evening hours. Storms that initially fired in Kansas worked northeastward and entered extreme southwest Iowa by the late evening hours with the threat of large hail, winds, and tornadoes. Just after 7 PM a tornado touched down just across the Iowa border to the east of Nebraska City, KS. As storms continued to move east/northeastward additional tornadoes were reported near Randolph, Cumberland, Creston, Monroe, and Kellogg. Other than tornadoes a few tornado reports near Ames & Boone (Nickel-Sized Hail), and several damaging winds with the relatively weaker thunderstorms. The damaging winds were likely a combination of not only thunderstorm strength, but the environmental wind fields were also very strong, leading to these high winds. Damage was even reported behind these thunderstorms with the strong environmental wind fields, measured gusts from Spencer were upwards of 58 mph; and a gust measured at my home near Terril reached 68 mph.

Temperatures today range from the mid 60s in northwest Iowa under mostly cloudy skies, to the mid 80s in the southeast under clear skies. Winds are still strong today from the southwest, 15-30 mph on average with higher gusts likely throughout the state. Highs today should be just a degree or two higher than current temperatures indicate. Lows overnight should range from the upper 50s to upper 60s from northwest to southeast; winds should begin to subside and switch to more of a southerly direction under partly cloudy skies. Weekend temperatures will have highs in the upper 70s to lower 90s on Saturday from northwest to south; highs on Sunday from northwest to southeast will range from the mid 70s to upper 80s. Lows overnight in the mid 50s to upper 60s for both Saturday and Sunday night. Thunderstorms likely during the day and night on Saturday, with additional thunderstorms throughout the day on Sunday and Sunday night. Severe weather chances for both days, the best chance on Saturday which is described in more detail below.

Saturday, June 7 Severe Weather Possibilities
A cold front will enter the state during the morning or early afternoon hours from the north/northwest and continue southward into the state. This front throughout the day will decelerate with time, potentially even becoming stationary across the state in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will more likely develop along this front in the afternoon, with strong instability in place with very warm temperatures and dewpoints pushing the 70-mark. The threat of these thunderstorms will likely pose for all threats of severe weather, however, the best chance for tornadoes does look to exist over the western half of the state during the late afternoon and evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds do look to be the greater threat, but discrete storms may pose the tornadic threat as mentioned. Timing will see thunderstorms initially develop over MN/WI and the northeastern quarter of the state during the mid-afternoon. Late-afternoon and evening expansion of thunderstorms over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will then occur an hour or two later, with a potentially higher severe weather threat.

The SPC has the area under a slight risk, with probabilities of 30% and hatched indicating an enhanced severe threat over nearly the entire state. Later outlooks may upgrade this area to a moderate risk if conditions do warrant and updates to the blog will reflect that. Although the chase yesterday busted, depending on how the morning satellite and forecasts look, it may be worth another chase in Iowa tomorrow!

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June 5 Severe Threat & Chase

The 8 AM SPC severe weather outlook has upgraded a large portion of the plains to a high risk, with the upgrade coming on the heals of increased damaging wind potential. The setup is very unique for this time of year, as the features in the mid and upper-levels are more like an early spring severe weather outbreak. These features, combined with early summertime thermodynamics will make for a nasty outbreak for severe weather. The large question in place is due to the early spring-like features of the wind fields, with a lot of shear, but overall unidirectional wind fields in mid to upper levels will result in fast storm motions and a push for more linear storms. This is the reason behind the high risk upgrade, as it is felt that as storms evolve into a potentially bowing linear structure that a significant damaging wind event may occur.

Despite this feeling, the tornado threat with storms is still quite high, and wording still includes the potential for long-track and significant tornadoes. The surface features will become better defined as we reach the afternoon hours, currently it is believed that the surface warm front has already surged northward and has situated along a line from near Sioux City eastward to Davenport given latest surface analysis. The low pressure is currently in northwest Kansas, pressure falls have already begun across central Nebraska and will pull this low north/northeastward. A dryline/cold front will be pulled to the south of this low and will also serve as a focal point for storm development late this afternoon. Other storms may develop along the warm front, nearly stationary front, draped approximately along its' same location now.

Chase Forecast: I won't be traveling far from my home area, with the warm front featured dead-center across northwest Iowa I can't venture far away from that feature. Although storm motions aren't the most favorable, given the amazing shear values it is likely that storms will quickly rotate and potentially produce tornadoes. I believe development should occur along the warm front late this afternoon, along with additional development along the dryline in central Nebraska and southward. Storms in each area can become tornadic, parts of the region, especially northwest or northern Iowa may see more than one round of storms. Initial development along the warm front will eventually either move north or be overtaken by a broken line of storms moving off of the dryline in the nighttime hours. This second line will also have potential of significant damaging winds...

Will be watching how things evolve, may either vote to head slightly west from the Spencer location that I'm currently at... Or may not need to move anywhere if warm front can fire throughout.

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June 4 Severe Weather

11:22 PM Update: The tornadic threat for Iowa is not completely over, however, the storm that has been a prolific tornado producer for several hours has finally looked to lose its' power. Although still severe warnings exist across the state, no tornado warnings exist at the moment. A few isolated severe storms do exist across the state, currently over Hardin, Sac, and Crawford counties. The previous tornado warned storm is still severe warned and covers Warren county. A bow echo line of storms is moving east capable of mainly damaging winds that is running from near Adair, IA to the south of Corning, IA... This may likely be the last update on tonights severe threat, as the thoughts now shift towards tomorrows' event which may be another day of tornadoes in Iowa.

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10:30 PM Update: I have not been able to track the storms as they have went through the state, however, I feel that the post below definitely was warranted given the tornado reports that I've seen thus far. Several reports of tornadoes stretch along a line from Mills county eastward through Montgomery, Adams, Union, and now entering into portions of Clark, Madison, and Warren. This one cell has continued to move mainly eastward and has nearly continuously been a tornado producer. Other storms in the state are severe warned, this includes several counties in southwest Iowa as a bow echo is beginning to catch up to the tornadic supercell. Other isolated cells in west-central Iowa and north-central Iowa are also severe warned with the capability of producing large hail and damaging winds. Please stay tuned to local media or your weather radio as many are heading to bed...

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5:45 PM Update: A new tornado watch has been issued for a large portion of Iowa, roughly the southern half of the state. This tornado watch has been issued based on a warm front that is situated across the state. Storms are likely to fire along this warm front as the evening progresses, the storms will be able to produce large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. This tornado watch will remain in effect until midnight tonight...

Currently, a severe warned storm for large hail is within Adams county. While a stronger and tornadic storm has entered Mills county, the storm entering Mills county has strong rotation and has had a reported tornado previously. Other storms, including the storm already going in Adams county will have the potential to also become tornadic. Numerous other small cells do appear on Des Moines NWS radar, roughly along a line from Omaha to Bloomfield, IA. Anywhere along and north of this line may see severe or tornadic storms within the next several hours... Please watch your local news stations or listen to your weather radio for continued updates.

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Chase Forecast: June 5

With the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak increasingly likely over parts of Iowa, specifically western Iowa, I will be on my way to the storms throughout the afternoon tomorrow. Latest SPC discussion indicates that there are some questions still to the evolution of the forecast, and in the storm evolution once they do fire tomorrow afternoon. Nonetheless, as the SPC also mentions, it does appear that a 'Significant/damaging event' will take place over the plains tomorrow.

Forecast models continue to have some struggles with the placement of surface features, most notably the warm front and low pressure positions. Last nights' consensus was to have the low placed in eastern South Dakota by 00z, with warm front extending eastward through South Dakota and into southern Minnesota/Wisconsin. This mornings' model runs took a slightly more west and south approach, leading to the extension of the moderate risk in the latest SPC day 2 westward. The 12z NAM indicated good timing on the 500mb jet and vorticity axis in correlation to 00z and the likelihood of storm initiation. The placement of the warm front was oriented from southwest to northeast, unlike previous model runs, and stretched from northeast Nebraska, along the IA/MN/SD intersection and then into southern Minnesota. The low pressure center at this time seemed to be much further south, in vicinity to the Norfolk, NE. This solution would still yield significant severe weather, it would however move the risk to mainly eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, and not include portions of SD/MN as much as previously thought.

The 12z GFS run is slightly east when compared the NAM in the 500mb jet and vorticity axis. This does not have a negative effect though, as the overall setup remains the same with good support throughout the levels for thunderstorm development in the late afternoon and evening hours. The surface setup with the GFS model run indicated less of a change when compared to last nights' runs. Low pressure still centered along the NE/SD borders in vicinity to Yankton, SD. Associated warm front extends east/northeast from the low over southeast South Dakota and into southern Minnesota. This is much more in line with current SPC forecasts and remains fairly consistent with previous models, thus is likely the favored model currently.

Ideal target area will be anywhere along a line from near Yankton, SD southward along the dryline throughout eastern Nebraska. This line is likely to include areas such as Norfolk, NE; Columbus, NE; Grand Island, NE; Hastings, NE; etc... My current chase plans include the morning at KICD Radio in Spencer, IA before departing in the early afternoon to head westward. Dependent on where the surface features are placed, continue west near the SD/IA border or drop south along highway 60 towards the Sioux City area. More updates are likely tonight and tomorrow regarding the severe weather threat both late tonight across Iowa, and the threat for tomorrow.

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Severe Weather Outbreak

The state of Iowa is looking at three straight days of potentially significant severe weather. Today, or more likely, tonight will see a large complex of storms move into southwestern Iowa with the potential for both large hail and significant damaging winds. Storms today should fire across central Nebraska and Kansas, congealing into a MCS during the evening hours as it nears the Iowa and Nebraska borders. The extreme southwestern counties in the state may have a chance at an isolated tornado is storms can stay discrete for a longer period of time. The main threat with these storms should be damaging winds and large hail, with the best threat over southwest Iowa. The remainder of the state may still see thunderstorms during the overnight hours, with the potential for severe storms throughout. More updates on this threat may be posted during the evening or early overnight as the system is able to become better defined.

Tomorrow (Thursday) will see the northwest half of the state under the potential for significant severe weather, including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A warm front to the north of the state, across southern Minnesota, with low pressure system in eastern South Dakota. A dryline and cold front will also be positioned from extreme eastern South Dakota through eastern Nebraska and then into central Kansas, Oklahoma, and even Texas. Although storms may be ongoing in the morning hours across portions of SD/NE/MN/IA, they are expected to clear off by the afternoon hours. Given clearing skies, strong instability should be present across the entire warm sector (south of warm front and east of dryline/cold front). The combination of strong instability and lift with associated fronts should allow storm development during the afternoon hours, with other storms developing further south along the dryline being more discrete due to a strong cap.

The storms expected across Iowa are likely to be supercellular, with very large hail and tornadoes being the main threats given strong shear at both low and mid-levels. Eventually the storms may congeal into another complex of storms, however this is not likely until they reach the eastern half of the state. Initial storms are being said to have the potential of long-lived, strong tornadoes. Thus, would definitely keep an eye and ear to the weather for tomorrow across parts of Iowa and adjacent areas.

Just a brief mention for Friday, as mainly a cold front passage over eastern Iowa will likely be capable of producing severe weather during the afternoon and evening hours. Although all modes of severe weather seem likely, the best threat will probably be large hail and especially damaging winds. More on this threat will be available as it nears...

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Thunderstorms & More Thunderstorms

As you can tell by the title, those thunderstorms are not going to stop. During the overnight hours, a fairly weak wave of energy moved across the plains states allowing for thunderstorm development. As the storms continued to move across the state of Iowa, a bowing line of thunderstorms became evident across central Iowa. This bowing line of storms continue to move through the remainder of the the state, affecting mainly southeast Iowa during the morning hours as well. Reports throughout the night had mainly damaging winds involved with this line of storms, although a few hail reports were received near LeMars, IA and then again around the Des Moines metro, and its' surrounding. These storms have since moved out of the state, however, still posing a severe weather threat for parts of Illinois, and should continue to do so for the remainder of the day.

Back to the forecast, the risk for severe weather across the state of Iowa is nearly a guarantee for both Wednesday and Thursday. Currently both days are still highly variable when it comes to model consistency, so the area of most concern is hard to define even for tomorrow. Currently it is believed that a warm front will extend east/northeast from a low in northern Kansas. This warm front will set the stage for thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours, potentially closer to the low as a substantial capping may be in place over the remainder of the warm sector. With developing storms likely in central/eastern Nebraska, shear values remain substantial to warrant a belief of supercells capable of both very large hail and tornadoes. As the thunderstorms move into areas along the Missouri River and into Iowa during the evening and early overnight, cooling should take place at mid-levels to allow continued development and growth of thunderstorms. A large complex of storms (MCS) is likely to travel across the state, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Currently, the best threat for this MCS should be over the southern half of the state, however, given current model inconsistencies this area is not well guaranteed. Later SPC outlooks within an hour, as well as tomorrows' early outlooks should be able to have a better handle on this storm system and I will update accordingly.

Thursday's setup looks even more favorable for significant severe weather across much of the state of Iowa, and other areas in the plains. The low pressure system should be situated in eastern South Dakota at the surface, with associated warm front across central Minnesota. A cold front and dryline will be located south of the low, draped across extreme eastern South Dakota and Nebraska, as well as central Kansas, Oklahoma, and even northern Texas. Substantial capping may be present to the areas south of I80, making thunderstorm development questionable through the evening hours. North of there however, expect significant instability and lift to allow thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the cold front and dryline. These thunderstorms are forecasted to have significant moisture and lift, combined with moderate to strong shear values. Indicating that supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely. This threat covers a vast majority of the state at this time, later outlooks and forecasts should be able to better define an area of enhanced severe weather with upgrades in risk category via the SPC are likely. Once again, updates on this situation will be posted as warranted...

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June 2 Severe Weather

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are currently working into western Iowa this morning in response to overnight convection in Nebraska. Other storms, some severe, are also moving southeastward from Nebraska into parts of northern Kansas at this time as well. Behind both of these clusters of showers/storms, it is expected to clear off over western and central Nebraska/Kansas. With a lesser extent of clearing currently expected over eastern Nebraska and over Iowa/Missouri. Where the sun can shine, moisture and heating should combine to allow sufficient instability for severe weather later this afternoon. The combination of this instability, and the sufficient shear values will allow for discrete storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The best threat currently looks to include a majority of Nebraska, northern Kansas, and potentially far northwestern Missouri.

For the state of Iowa, expect the showers and embedded thunderstorms to continue to slowly move across the state this morning. Leaving behind a fairly stringent cloud deck that will limit daytime heating over much of the state. The lack of heating will only allow for some elevated instability to occur this afternoon, thus do not expect additional thunderstorm development this afternoon. With the primary warm front situation over southern Nebraska, southeastward into portions of Kansas and Missouri, expect thunderstorm development north of the front this evening in Nebraska to work east/southeast into portions of Iowa. These storms tonight may be capable of damaging winds and marginally severe hail, however, given the lack of instability with currently cloud cover lingering for a majority of the day, the severe threat will be fairly limited.

Other updates may be posted later this afternoon if clearing can occur, leaving an increased potential for severe weather across the state.

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Severe Weather Threat

Another storm system moving into the plains will put the state under another risk of severe weather tomorrow, June 2. As mid-level winds become westerly in nature, indicating more zonal flow; low-level winds will be backed to the southeast and even east during the afternoon hours. This shift in winds with height will allow for sufficient shear values throughout portions of NE/KS/IA/MO for supercells. Low-level shear becoming enhanced with the easterly surface winds over portions of Nebraska, Iowa, and potentially other areas, for a tornado threat during the evening hours.

At the surface, a warm front will likely be positioned across extreme southern South Dakota and Minnesota, and also over portions of central/western Nebraska. To the south of this feature, expect mainly clear skies for the afternoon hours will provide sufficient instability for severe weather as well. Thunderstorms are likely to initiated over Nebraska and South Dakota during the late afternoon hours, moving into areas of Iowa and Missouri during the evening and overnight. The initial storms are likely be remain fairly discrete, with the potential for all modes of severe weather. With time the storms should congeal into a potentially significant MCS capable of damaging winds and hail, with a brief tornado still remaining possible.

More details on the position of the warm front, how well the area south of the front can clear, and what the trigger for convection to begin will become clear during the day tomorrow. It is expected that the SPC will upgrade the risk area to a moderate, for at least the area that is forecasted to receive the significant MCS during the evening and early nighttime hours. Another update can be expected late tonight or early tomorrow with more details on the locals expecting the more significant severe weather.

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