Cold Front

Currently the cold front that has slowly made its' way across the state is located from near LaCrosse, WI through Osceola, IA and continuing to the southwest through Kansas. This front had already entered northwest Iowa this morning, but has only made very slow progress throughout the day. Winds shift dramatically with the frontal passage, south or southwesterly flow ahead while north/northwest winds behind. Temperature range across the front is generally 10 degrees as it was throughout the day today. Despite this cold front, highs today ranged from the upper 60s in northwest Iowa to the upper 70s.

This frontal passage isn't likely to make it far, as it slowly moves through the remainder of the state overnight tonight and becomes stationary for the day. This will allow the warmer air to override the front and provide most of the state with abundant rain showers throughout the day on Thursday and into Thursday night. Low pressure is expected to finally begin to move the front by Friday evening after another day of rain showers. Some portions of eastern Iowa may still see lingering showers on Saturday, however by the evening the state should finally be clear of any precip.

Temperatures for the remainder of the week should still be quite mild, even considering the rain and clouds that are likely tomorrow through Saturday. Lows tonight from near 40 to lower 50s from northwest to southeast. Highs tomorrow in the 50s throughout, with lowest temperatures expected where the rain is likely to hold strong throughout the day. Thursday night and Friday night lows should range from the mid 30s in the northwest to the mid 40s in the southeasten quarter. Friday's highs likely in the upper 50s for both the northwestern and southeastern corners of the state; with the lower 50s expected through the rest of the state as showers continue. The warm air will once again enter the state on Saturday as that system moves out, highs expected to be in the upper 50s in the east to near 70 along the Missouri River.

Expect those warm temperatures, along with moisture to return over the weekend ahead of another strong system. Several NWS offices already mentioning the strong potential for thunderstorms and the possibility of a severe weather event over the Mississippi Valley early next week.

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Solid Spring Week

With a weekend of well below normal temperatures, cold rain, and snow across the state of Iowa it is great to look ahead and see what this next week has in store. Today was much improved over the previous two, with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 40s across the state. Tomorrow should once again see the drastic jump in temperatures, ranging from the lower 50s in the east to the lower 60s in the west. Lows Monday night in the 30s across the state, but should still be above freezing. Tuesday will once again see an increase in temperatures as a ridge takes hold of the central US. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s from east to west as southerly winds continue to be gusty from the south. Lows Tuesday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the state.

Mid-week looks to continue the streak of great spring temperatures, with a few spring-time thunderstorms also possible as a weak front lingers over the state. These thunderstorms and rain showers look to begin Wednesday night across much of the state, lingering through Thursday night in central and eastern Iowa. Eastern Iowa may even be lucky enough to potentially see some lingering into the day on Friday as well as the system just doesn't want to push out of the state.

Wednesday highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s from northwest to southeast; lows ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s respectively. Thursdays' highs may be hampered by some cloud cover and showers/thunderstorms over some portions of the state. However highs still expected in the 60s across the state; lows in or near the 40s. Fridays' highs and lows expected to range in the 60s and 40s respectively once again as the previous system clears out and we look to warm up even more for the weekend.

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April 10 Iowa Tornado Surveys

The National Weather Service offices in Des Moines and Davenport have completed their surveys' of several tornadoes that swept across southern Iowa on Thursday, April 10. In total there were 8 tornadoes that covered portions of six counties. Of the eight tornadoes, they were given the following EF-Scale ratings:

(3) EF-0
(4) EF-1
(1) EF-2

Luckily, no injuries or fatalities were reported with any of these tornadoes. To read the entire reports from both Des Moines and Davenport, please select one of the links below to be taken to the survey page.

Des Moines NWS Survey Page

Davenport NWS Survey Page

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Behind the Low

After yesterdays' extensive rainfall and severe weather that crossed through the state, the low pressure system is currently slowly moving over the state. The low became a cut-off low pressure system yesterday, indicating that it would likely move slowly as well as weaken. That is what current surface trends are indicating, as the lowest pressure has rose from 987 mb to 990 mb over the past 5 hours. The system will still have some showers and snow showers wrapped around the circulation that is likely to effect most of the state through this afternoon. Extreme northwest Iowa is still under a Winter Weather Advisory for snowfall accumulations in the 1-3 inch range. The heaviest snowfall has luckily stayed off into South Dakota and Minnesota.

Temperatures today will struggle, with a majority of the state actually seeing falling temperatures through the afternoon. Expect highs in the 30s and 40s for most of the state, likely to occur before Noon. Some snowfall may stick around through the night and last into tomorrow, with mainly flurries. Expect chilly temperatures through Saturday before we begin to warm up nicely for next week.

On the note of severe weather that occurred last night, the National Weather Service offices are conducting surveys throughout the day today. Once those are posted tonight I will try to also update the blog with all of the surveys and any other information about the severe weather on April 10.

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Tornado Warning(s) -- Southern Iowa

Update: 6:45 PM, Two tornado warned storms are moving over eastern Iowa with another round of thunderstorms possible as the evening progresses. I will be unable to provide updates in near 'real-time' for the remainder of the evening. Please listen to your local radio and TV for any updates throughout the evening if you are in an area for a potential severe weather threat.

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Update: 6:30 PM, Tornadoes warnings continue for two seperate cells. The first located and going through portions of Poweshiek and Tama counties. The second through Van Buren, Jefferson and Henry. Both storms are being indicated to have strong rotation via radar and may be capable of producing a tornado.

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Update: 6:16 PM, Law Enforcement is reporting a tornado on the ground 1 mile southeast of Lebanon, IA. This storm and tornado still moving northeast ~45 mph.

Poweshiek county now looking at a tornadic storm as strong rotation still evident on radar near Barnes City, IA. That storm is also moving northeast at 40 mph and may effect Deep River within the next 5 minutes.

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Update: 6:10 PM, A new tornado warned storm has entered the state of Iowa and has prompted warnings. This storm is located south of Keosaqua, IA and is moving northeast at 40 mph. This storm is expected to pass through portions of Van Buren, Jefferson, Lee, and Henry counties within the next 30 minutes. Please stay up to date via TV or radio for the latest updates on those storms.

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Update: 6:00 PM, Currently the storm is moving northward into an unfavorable environment for tornadoes. However, this storm still indicates signs of rotation and thus may still post a threat for tornadoes. Currently the strongest rotation is ~10 miles northeast of Oskaloosa, IA and moving northeast at 45 mph.

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Update: 5:50 PM, Spotters have recently reported only a funnel now just to the west/southwest of Eddyville approximately 5 minutes ago. This storm may still be capable of producing a tornado and has a history of doing so.

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Update: 5:35 PM, Spotters continue to report that a large tornado is on the ground near Albia (likely north) and is moving northeast ~50 mph. The NWS is indicating that this storm has heavy rainfall and the tornado may be rain-wrapped making it hard to see. Those in the path of this storm should seek shelter.

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Update: At 5:22 PM, Spotters continue to report a large and dangerous tornado near Albia, IA moving northeast at ~55 mph.

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Currently one strong cell is moving through Moravia, IA and quickly moving northeast at speeds up to 70 mph. This storm is expected to continue to move through Monroe county in south-central Iowa and into portions of Mahaska and Wapello counties.

The latest updates have indicated that a potentially large and dangerous tornado is on the ground and may have went through the town of Moravia. Some damage has been reported to at least one house and garage.

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Tornado Watch & Warnings

A complex of thunderstorms has worked its' way through north-central Missouri this afternoon, crossing the warm front and continuing into south-central Iowa currently. These storms are capable of producing tornadoes and thus warnings have been issued for several counties for the potential for tornadoes. Some small hail may also be a possibility with these storms. The storms are unique in that they are typically low-topped and fairly unimpressive on radar; however there is such a large amount of shear available that they are easily rotating.

The storms are moving nearly straight north, at speeds over 50 mph. Making them quite dangerous for anybody in the path of these storms. Luckily at this time only one tornado has been reported near Bethany, MO some time ago, however the storms are going to be capable of producing tornadoes for the remainder of the evening. A new tornado watch has just been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for portions of south-central and southeast Iowa until 11 PM tonight. Expect storms to continue to move into the favorable area throughout the evening, thus even after one storm passes through still stay on the lookout for additional storms that may be moving your way.

'Live' radar updates are being provided on the Iowa Chaser homepage, with images enhanced for those areas that are being affected by the current tornado warned storms.

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Very Windy & Stormy

I've awoke this morning to a dark apartment, as a fairly large power outage is occurring in Ames this morning. I'm unaware of how this outage occurred, but high winds may easily have something to do with it. Much of central Iowa has been listed under a Wind Advisory as winds are sustained 30-35 mph and gusting up to near 45 mph. These highs winds are likely to continue through the day and into this evening. A low pressure system is responsible for these very high winds and will continue to track into the state late tonight. With the low pressure system is going to come significant precipitation chances for the entire state, with heavy snows in extreme northwest Iowa to severe weather in the southeast.

Potential for severe weather looks to include anywhere south of a Dubuque to Omaha, NE line. Large hail and damaging winds are the leading threats, however isolated tornadoes are not going to be ruled out. The strongest of the storms look to occur well south of the state through southern Missouri and Arkansas. Another area of enhanced severe weather may also be possible in northwest Missouri and adjacent areas of Iowa. Residents of those areas should keep an eye out for any severe weather and listen to local TV or radio to stay updated.

For those in the northwest, expect rain beginning today, but a turn over to snow is likely this evening. Lyon county in northwest Iowa has been put under a Blizzard Warning, as snow totals upwards of 6 inches are likely with winds above 25 mph. Other adjacent counties in northwest Iowa have been put under a Winter Weather Advisory where 3-5 inches of snow may be expected. Other areas north of a Onawa, IA to LaCrosse, WI line should expect to see the potential for accumulating snow overnight tonight. Totals through those areas should be in the 1-3 inch range with the heaviest to the northwest.

Very active weather day in Iowa, more updates possible later if the potential for severe weather increases.

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Wind, Snow, Rain, Hail, & Tornadoes?

A very strong low pressure system is expected to track directly over the state tomorrow evening and overnight. To the south and east of this low pressure system, a warm front is expected to be pulled northward allowing warm and moist air to infiltrate portions of the state. As the low continues to move northeastward during the evening, a cold front should accompany it through the state. The combination of the fronts and low, along with the rest of the dynamics is going to produce a large threat for severe weather over the southeastern quarter of the state. While damaging winds and large hail are going to be main threats, tornadoes are also going to be possible with the extreme amounts of wind shear that are available to these storms. Currently the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this quarter of the state under a Slight risk, with a Moderate risk just along the MO/IA border that extends southward. Indications from the SPC lean towards the potential for an upgrade to high risk for portions of Missouri, Arkansas and other surrounding states. Portions of the moderate risk may extend into southeastern Iowa depending on the northward progress of the warm front. Either way, people in the southeast quarter of the state should be aware of this potential and after the tornado warning testing today with Severe Weather Awareness week people should definitely be on top of things and prepared.

On the other side of this system, precipitation is still likely as the front moves northeastward through the state and towards the Great Lakes region. Various winter weather watches and warnings have been issued for portions of WI/MN/SD/NE and Lyon county in extreme northwest Iowa. Lyon county could be seeing upwards of 6 inches of snowfall with this system, while areas just to the southeast of them could still see 2-6 inches of snowfall. Anywhere north of a line from LaCrosse, WI to Fort Dodge through Onawa, IA could see accumulating snowfall upwards of 2 inches. Areas south of that line may still see snowfall, mainly Friday morning, however accumulations more than an inch seem unlikely at this time. Even where only rain is expected, problems may exist with the aforementioned severe weather as well as flooding concerns as several inches of water may be seen for some areas.

Today is looking to be the last warm day until early next week, as cold air behind this upcoming system will keep us below the 50 degree mark. More updates tonight on the severe weather potential and accumulating snowfall potential may be expected.

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Beautiful Spring Day!

And it is about time we had one here over the entire state! Temperatures even at 11 am have rose up into the mid to upper 50s for the most part across the state, with much more heating to go we can expect to see temperatures to range from the lower 60s to the lower 70s by late this afternoon. Everybody better get outside and enjoy the weekend, as rain and thunderstorms, along with another chance snow will become likely throughout the next week.

I believe I'll be enjoying a softball game or two this afternoon, Iowa State vs #6 Texas A&M here in Ames. I may also try to get a few pictures of the events if I can, maybe post them up tonight for your enjoyment. Enjoy the day!

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Spring?!

We've been flirting with spring for the past couple weeks in Iowa, at times bringing highs up into the 50s across the state with warm southerly winds. But, then we'd have a system come through and bring behind it the cold air which of course allowed us to see more of that white stuff. Strangely enough, looking at the highs for Ames today in the map room of the Meteorology department here at ISU we noticed that we had yet to reach 60 degrees once this year! We look to break that streak potentially this weekend, if not this weekend there may be potential even next week. Several systems look to come through the state over the next week, including a potentially strong system next week.

Starting out with highs tomorrow, generally consistent across the state with mid and upper 40s under heavy cloudcover. Expect rain showers to cut through the southern half of the state during the afternoon and into the overnight. Areas of northern Iowa may see some isolated showers, however their chances are much lower than those in the south. Lows Thursday night in the upper 20s to mid 30s from northwest to southeast, some showers may remain in the area for the southeast as well. We'll rebound temperatures nicely for Friday with highs in the mid to upper 50s throughout. This gives way to lows in the lower and mid 30s for the overnight.

The weekend is going to start off great, with highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s under clear skies. The lows for Saturday night should stay above freezing for the entire state, mid 30s in the northwest to lower 40s throughout the southern half. It's a good thing the temps will be above freezing, as our next system is going to bring a low pressure system right across the state. Rain and potential thunder will last through Sunday, pulling out of the state during the early nighttime hours Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will range from the 40s north of the low in extreme northern Iowa to near 60 in the southeast where the warm sector of the system looks to be located. Sunday night lows from near 30 in the northwest to near 40 in the southeast.

We reach into the first half of next week with highs in the 50s and 60s across the state Monday through Wednesday. Lows expected in the 30s on Monday night, but some moisture return into the state will likely hold lows on Tuesday night in the upper 30s to 40s. From Tuesday through the next couple of days after will likely have chances of rain and thunderstorms with the next potentially significant storm system. Some talk has already started on next Wednesday for severe weather in the plains, more information on this and any changes in the forecast in later updates.

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