Recap of 4/10 - 4/11 Snow

Snows were quick to accumulate over portions of northern Iowa during the two day event, with other accumulations occurring as far south as I80. Des Moines set a new record for highest daily snowfall for a single day in April. No other records were broken that I am aware of, however other areas did come close to breaking the same record. As for the snow totals from this storm, first from the Sioux Falls CWA (northwest Iowa):

The FSD Storm Totals Snow Graphic shows the heaviest band of snowfall over extreme northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, where although just over 10 inches of snow may have fell significantly less actually accumulated and stayed on the ground. Jackson, MN received 8 inches of snow, with Ocheyden, IA with 7 inches. Several other areas in Dickinson/Clay counties received 6 inches of snow or slightly more... Out of the Des Moines area, Estherville reported 7 inches of snow actually accumulated. Mason City also reported just over 5 inches actually accumulated, various other amounts occurred throughout the state. Despite some of the more significant amounts that accumulated, most of the snow is now melted across the central third of the state. The northern third of Iowa may still have snow on the ground, but by the end of tomorrow if not by sunrise the snow will be nearly gone. Leaving behind the green grass that should once again begin to grow and have the look of spring.

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4/10 - 4/11 Winter Storm (Update #4)

Snow continues over the state into the early afternoon hours, although some areas of eastern Iowa and southwestern Iowa may still be seeing rainfall at this time. Advisories/Warnings remain the same over the state, although total accumulations have been backed down some. The accumulations aren't taking place quite as quick as they thought, seemingly the soil temperatures have stayed just warm enough to keep snow from accumulating rapidly. Northern portions of the state will still be looking at 4-8 inches, however the central third may only be looking at 1-4 inches instead of the previously forecasted 3-6. The snow is expected to weaken by tonight, with western Iowa seeing the snow end by 10 PM, central Iowa by 1 am and by sunrise tomorrow the snow should be out of eastern Iowa as well.

Latest reports include Mason City with 5 inches, Forest City with 4 inches. Out of the FSD forecast area, areas including in the heavy snow warning report 6-7 inches this morning. Just north of the border, Jackson, MN reported 8 inches of snowfall. These amounts will likely increase this afternoon adding on a few more inches before snow ends.

Once this storm departs the area, we finish off the week with temperatures in the 30s and 40s for highs, 20s and 30s for lows. The previous mentioned system that might affect the area on Friday has trended well south and doesn't look to be much of a concern at the moment now. Once that system is completely out of the plains by Sunday, the warm air surges northward and our highs look to increase dramatically by next week. A better look ahead once this system has ended and moved on...

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4/10 - 4/11 Winter Storm (Update #3)

Snow has continued over much of the northwestern half of the state this evening, with some snow totals coming in this evening. The northwest corner of Iowa looks to have 3-6 inches of snowfall already in place, much of the rest of the northern half of the state should begin to see the snow begin or changeover to snow later tonight or early tomorrow morning. No major changes to the forecast as far as totals go or the track of this system, thus not much else to talk about. Hopefully by tomorrow morning there will be some good snowfall reports coming in and give an idea of how strong this system may truly be.

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4/10 - 4/11 Winter Storm (Update #2)

Once again with a strengthening trend to the system and increasing cold air returning from the northwest, the snowfall forecast has increased and thus changes have been made to advisories/watches and now warnings! Areas of Iowa along the Minnesota border have the potential for nearly a foot of snow by the end of Wednesday. Other areas in the northern third of the state will see over a half foot of snowfall during the same time period. Even along a rough line of Sioux City to Ames to Davenport and northward are expected to see over 3 inches of snow and are in some sort of winter storm advisory. Areas just south of that line may still see snowfall, however under 3 inches is expected and thus no advisories have been issued for them. Travel conditions even with small amounts of snowfall will be treacherous, as slick conditions will prevail.

Currently, rain showers over the southern half of the state are underway. While snowfall has continued over the northwest corner of the state, mainly moderate although in Sioux Falls heavy snow was reported at 4 PM. Expect precipitation to increase overnight, with areas in the northern third of the state to see this change over to snow overnight. The rest of the state will see a changeover to snow during the morning hours tomorrow, with continuing snowfall throughout the day.

As for the latest on Advisories/Warnings across the state:

Snow Advisory -- Northwest Iowa
Heavy Snow Warning -- Northwest Iowa
Winter Storm Warning -- Northcentral & Northeast Iowa
Snow & Blowing Snow Advisory -- Central Iowa
Winter Weather Advisory -- East-Central Iowa

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4/10 - 4/11 Winter Storm (Update #1)

This mornings' model runs were completed a couple of hours ago and an interesting trend has taken place. Nearly every model runs went with a slightly strong low pressure system, thus heavier precipitation & nearly every model slid the cold air and system overall just a bit south. The heaviest snowfall is still expected across northern Iowa, as well as southern MN/eastern SD and further along the WI/IL border. This area has the potential for some very heavy periods of snow as well as significant accumulations by the end of tomorrow afternoon. Currently, Snow Advisories and Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the northern third of the state with the potential of 6-10 inches of snowfall within the next 30 hours. This mornings' models are within this range, although some slightly higher in localized areas and others are slightly weaker with the snowfall amounts.

With the southern trend for this system however, this means that the central third of the state will likely have more snowfall potential. A line from Sioux City to the Quad Cities is likely to be the main line of accumulating snowfall. Just south of this line, some snowfall overnight and tomorrow may be seen, although less than an inch of accumulation is expected. Other areas in between those mentioned above will see 2-5 inches of snowfall mainly during the day tomorrow.

Next update expected late tonight with updated forecast and snowfall amounts received.

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4/10 - 4/11 Winter Storm

Although the storm isn't completely winter, with a majority of the state seeing mainly rain throughout the duration of it. The headlines of the storm are going to be the potentially heavy and significant snows in the northern portion of the state. This morning has snow falling over mainly the northwest portion of Iowa, with moderate to heavy snow at times in areas of Estherville, Spencer & even Algona early this morning. This is expected to continue and increase in coverage during the day today and throughout the nighttime hours especially. In response to the expected heavy snowfall and potentially significant accumulations across the northern portion of the state the NWS has issued a couple of advisories/watches over the area.

Northwest Iowa -- Snow Advisory
Northeast Iowa -- Winter Storm Watch

As for the rest of the state, mainly rain showers expected throughout the afternoon as temperatures are just high enough to deter the snow from falling. However, by tonight and the temperatures fall there is the potential for snowfall across at least the northern half of the state. The central third of the state however is not likely to see accumulations as the snow will be fairly short lived and not heavy. Morning model runs indicate that the rain/snow line has not changed much, although precipitation may be slightly heavier than previous runs. Snow forecasts have not been completed yet, however areas that are under an advisory/watch are still likely to see the heaviest snow amounts. Expect updates throughout the day and tomorrow as the forecast changes and snowfall amounts begin to come in...

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Winter Returns?

The past couple of days have featured chilly temperatures with gusty winds, producing some very cold wind chills over the state. Yesterday's temperatures ranged from the mid 30s to upper 20s for highs, with lows yesterday morning in the mid 20s and mid-teens! This morning saw even colder temperatures across the state, from 13 in Estherville to 21 in Burlington. At least the highs today are warming up nicely, currently mid 30s to near 40 degrees across Iowa.

Besides the temperature difference from the previous weeks, another difference that will likely be occurring is a change in precipitation mode. Midweek last week into the weekend saw some areas of the state report light snow, this will likely occur once again with even some heavy snow possibilities. This system looks to come into play starting already on Monday and continuing into Wednesday. Models are indicating the potential for accumulating snow and the NWS is agreeing with this possibility, the bigger question is how much accumulation?? Difference in soil temperatures and rate of snowfall could change the forecast quite easily; some models show heavy band of snowfall putting down up to a foot of snow across the state while others are only putting down a couple of inches. Either way, it is a sight that a lot of people will likely not enjoy as 'spring' was already declared when highs were reaching the 70s and 80s only two weeks ago. Updates on this challenging forecast will hopefully be made early next week and as the system really bears down on the state.

Once this system passes, the next strong system isn't too far behind. Scheduled to effect the state starting on Thursday night and into Friday, thankfully this one doesn't look to have winter precipitation. Rather more of a springtime storm, with the potential of severe weather already being mentioned by Des Moines NWS. This system will have plenty of time to come into focus and look for it to be explained better in later posts...

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Storms Move Through

In the early nighttime hours last night storms quickly developed along the aforementioned warm front in previous posts. These storms began showing up near 9 PM and quickly developed into elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail. Lightning was prevalent throughout the skies last night around these storms, I did manage to head north of Ames and capture some shots of the distant lightning.

April 2 Lightning Gallery

Reports came in with these storms as they slowly made their way east/northeast into the nighttime hours. These storms began to weaken by 11 PM where most of the warnings were canceled for the cells in northern Iowa. However, by 1 AM another line was making its' way into the state that featured strong winds and did produce some warnings in southwest and southcentral Iowa. This line, along with other storms that formed in central Iowa moved off by sunrise and were nearly out of the state. Some lingering showers/thunderstorms in southeast Iowa remained. However, by Noon today only the extreme southeast corner of the state still had some light showers in their vicinity. Otherwise the rest of the state remains cloudy, with chilly temperatures or with chilly temperatures on their way. Currently the temperature range is from the lower 30s in northwest Iowa to the mid 60s in southeast Iowa, however winds from the northwest are picking up dramatically bringing in the cold air to those parts of the state that aren't quite yet in it.

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Severe Potential (4/2)

SPC has positioned a slight risk area directly over the state today, with the risk of large hail and isolated tornadoes. Warm front, currently just south of the state should move into the southern portion of the state late this afternoon. Strong heating gradient along this feature, with moisture return along and south of the front as well should setup the potential for surface based storms by this evening. With sufficient shear, rotating updrafts will be likely, enhancing the threat for large hail. Along the warm front, low level shear should be enhanced and thus an isolated tornado threat is also placed along the southern third of Iowa dependent on the exact location of the front. A decent cap will be over the area as well, so initiation of storms is somewhat questionable at this time.

By early nighttime hours, a shortwave coming in from the west will likely begin to affect the area as well. This will give the area sufficient lift for thunderstorm activity, not only along the front, but north of the front as well. North of the warm front, where surface instability will be lacking; elevated thunderstorms with large hail will be the main threat. Along the front, potential may still exist for surface based storms and thus a small tornado threat also exists in the early nighttime hours. Otherwise large hail will also be the most significant threat along the warm front as well.

Timing is a key in todays' setup, although either way thunderstorm activity should occur tonight over much of the state with severe storms possible. Thunderstorms may come in two rounds over some portions of the state, with severe weather being possible in both.

Chase Forecast: Chasing is not out of the question currently, dependent on warm front positioning and chase partners.

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3/31 Storms -- Another Round Expected

Yesterday saw the strong low pressure system work into the area and produce numerous showers and thunderstorms over the state. Some of which were severe and even tornado warned throughout the afternoon. Storm reports from the state mainly conclude that large hail and damaging winds were the main threats with the storms. Several of the storms had small hail with them, largest report in the state came in at 1.5 inches. Damaging winds were apparent with a line that moved through portions of central/eastern Iowa, no significant damaging wind reports were received. There were nearly a dozen or so tornado warnings issued yesterday for storms that showed rotation within the lower levels. None of those storms in Iowa ended up producing a tornado, however there were several reports of funnels with these storms that attempted to make it to the ground.

I did head out for a little joyride around Ames yesterday in the late afternoon as a broken line of showers/thunderstorms were heading over. Did get some slight rotation with the storm as it tried to get things together. But, nothing significant appeared throughout the storms life, although a fellow chaser did report a funnel spotter near Ames just as I was heading out. Shot a few pictures of the storm more as a test to the camera than to capture something interesting.

March 31 Gallery Page

As for the work week ahead, warm temperatures make their way in one last push tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 70s from north to south. A strong cold front will push across the state during the evening hours and produce some thunderstorm activity across the state, a small severe threat exists with the current forecast. By Tuesday you can really see the fronts' movement across the state with the northwest only reaching the lower 40s for highs with the southeast still potentially seeing some 60 degree readings before the front passes through. Wednesday and Thursday have temperatures ranging from 40 to 50 across the state, lows during that time expected in the 20 to 30 range. By the end of the week some moderation in temperatures begins with highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s and lows begin to stay just above freezing.

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