Severe Potential (4/2)

SPC has positioned a slight risk area directly over the state today, with the risk of large hail and isolated tornadoes. Warm front, currently just south of the state should move into the southern portion of the state late this afternoon. Strong heating gradient along this feature, with moisture return along and south of the front as well should setup the potential for surface based storms by this evening. With sufficient shear, rotating updrafts will be likely, enhancing the threat for large hail. Along the warm front, low level shear should be enhanced and thus an isolated tornado threat is also placed along the southern third of Iowa dependent on the exact location of the front. A decent cap will be over the area as well, so initiation of storms is somewhat questionable at this time.

By early nighttime hours, a shortwave coming in from the west will likely begin to affect the area as well. This will give the area sufficient lift for thunderstorm activity, not only along the front, but north of the front as well. North of the warm front, where surface instability will be lacking; elevated thunderstorms with large hail will be the main threat. Along the front, potential may still exist for surface based storms and thus a small tornado threat also exists in the early nighttime hours. Otherwise large hail will also be the most significant threat along the warm front as well.

Timing is a key in todays' setup, although either way thunderstorm activity should occur tonight over much of the state with severe storms possible. Thunderstorms may come in two rounds over some portions of the state, with severe weather being possible in both.

Chase Forecast: Chasing is not out of the question currently, dependent on warm front positioning and chase partners.