Monday, August 4, 2008

Severe Weather: August 4

7:30 PM Update: Storms have moved out of the state of Iowa, and the state should stay clear of any strong storms for the remainder of the evening and into the overnight. The thunderstorms that previously began to develop over extreme eastern Iowa have since moved into northern Illinois. This line is currently a strong bow echo capable of 80 mph winds, and has also shown strong rotation on the northern bow of this storm. Warnings have been posted for the city of Chicago, and their entire metro area as this storm continues to track eastward at nearly 60 mph. Significant damage is possible from this storm as it moves into a very populous area, with plenty of people I'm sure unaware of the situation. Surprisingly the Cubs game which is on ESPN currently has also stated nothing about the storms moving in, which is going to impact the stadium within the next 45 minutes.

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5:00 PM Update: A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of eastern Iowa and will continue to be in effect until Midnight tonight. Currently a cluster of thunderstorms that is severe warned exists over portions of Delaware, Jones, Dubuque, and Jackson counties. These storms are capable of both large hail and damaging winds, and are moving to the east generally around 35 mph.

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8:15 AM Update: The line of thunderstorms has begun to fall apart, likely given an increasing amount of inhibition for this morning. As it began to fall apart in the western edge, it developed on the eastern edge of the previous line. This has led to a cell, or another small line to form and move mainly eastward that is capable of small hail and gusty winds. This is currently located along the Kossuth and Humboldt, and Hancock and Wright county lines. Movement is eastward at approximately 50 mph, although a severe warning does exist for this cell, there has been nothing more than pea sized hail and upwards of 30 mph gusts reported.

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6:50 AM Update: A line of severe thunderstorms has developed this morning, as is moving northeastward at this time. This line is located approximately from near Marcus, IA eastward to near Aurelia, IA. The warning is currently in effect for Buena Vista, Cherokee, and Plymouth counties until 7:30 this morning. Both large hail up to quarter-sized in diameter, and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph are possible with this storm. Expect this storm to enter portions of O'Brien, Clay and Palo Alto counties around 7:30 as it continues in northeastward movement around 30 mph.

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We will start the day with severe weather ongoing over portions of the state, northwest Iowa has scattered thunderstorms and a line of severe thunderstorms that extend from near the SD/IA border eastward to just to the north of Storm Lake. These thunderstorms are warned as they have the ability to produce quarter sized hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms are moving northeast at around 30 mph, and are expected to sustain themselves through the morning hours.

After this mornings' round of thunderstorms, expect sunny conditions to resume allowing the temperatures to rocket once again into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the state. This combined with dew points around the 70 degree mark will allow for a setup capable of severe thunderstorms this afternoon across the state. A surface boundary is expected to extend from west to east across the state of Iowa, as well as surrounding states this afternoon. This is expected to be in the vicinity of a line from Sioux City through Davenport across Iowa. Thunderstorms should develop along this surface boundary this afternoon, given good lift and strong instability that is in place. Other thunderstorms are expected to the west in Nebraska and South Dakota, which may also mean another round of thunderstorms for portions of the state during the later nighttime hours tonight.

Updates are likely throughout the day if any changes occur to the forecast, as well as when any watches/warnings are issued for the area.

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