Potent System for Weekend

As mentioned in the previous post, this weekend holds some potential for a significant winter storm to go over the plains states. This system has been featured in the models for a while, but the exact location of this system has still been in limbo even in current forecasts. Nonetheless, the latest consensus is to bring a low pressure system out of the Rockies just south of Colorado and into the plains by Friday night. This low pressure system continues to the northeast moving near the MO/IA border by Saturday morning and then up towards the Great Lakes by Sunday. This low pressure system is accompanied by a very strong trough which will allow the low to strengthen considerably as it moves over the plains on Saturday into Sunday. Stronger low will likely mean a better chance for significant precip amounts not only along the fronts south/east of it but especially areas that are just north of the front where the deformation zone is setup. One thing this strong low will definitely bring with it is stronger winds, latest forecast discussion from Des Moines has pointed out that on the backside of the low may create blizzard conditions over Iowa.

This track just to the south of northern Iowa is likely to bring some of the heavier snow amounts to the area. Although any change with the track will of course bring a change to where the heaviest snow amounts fall. Areas that receive this heavy snow are likely to not only get the snowfall, but winds to go with it as a strong pressure gradient is likely to setup west of the low. Luckily this low is conjoined with the strong trough in the upper levels, meaning it won't stick around for long. Current timing of this system looks to effect Iowa mainly on Saturday, of course dependent on the amount of snow and wind behind it means it could continue to have some problems with transportation on Sunday while things get cleared off.

Other areas of the state may not only see the snow, but some mixed precip types are going to be possible along and just to the south of the low. A strong low means strong temperature gradients are likely to be present, meaning that some fairly warm temperatures are likely just to the east and south of the low. Freezing rain, sleet and even rain are all going to be possible along the plains states as this system is going to bring up that warm air to various areas along its' path.

Not going to get into the issue of how much snow and the exacts on locationing of this storm as it is still just too far out in the forecast. Would of course recommend a very close eye on this system as the weekend is likely one of the busiest of the year with Christmas coming next Tuesday. Will continue to have updates, hopefully daily, as to what the latest forecasts indicate with this system.