Spring has Arrived!

Well the official start of spring occurs today, with temperatures around the state rising quickly thanks to the southerly winds and abundant sunshine. Highs should range from near 50 to the mid 50s, with lows tonight only dropping to the lower to mid 40s. Both of these are above normal for the current time of year. Continued advection of warm air and moisture should continue on Wednesday, allowing highs to range from 60 to near 70 potentially. Of course the mention of increased moisture should allude to something, that is the chance of precipitation. Luckily, the wintery stuff looks to have come to an end and the chances of not only rain showers, but thunderstorms have came into the picture! The chances for rain/thunderstorms should continue from tonight and Wednesday night into Thursday monring and then another round during the weekend. This weekends round should range from Saturday night through the rest of the weekend and possibly into the beginning of the work week. Once again, those chances look to include the risk of thunderstorms over the state. Temperatures during this time don't look to fluctuate greatly, with highs consistently in the 50s and 60s. Lows should range from upper 30s and mid 40s in the first half, while the weekends' lows stay in the 40s and 50s.

As mentioned, the risk of thunderstorms during the forecast period makes for another good conversation piece. The heavier rain may cause some flooding as rivers are already fairly high in several areas across the state. One of the better risks, at least in the mind of several who read the blog is the risk of severe weather over the area. Wednesday evening/night looks to be the first risk, with the SPC already including much of Iowa in a slight risk and increased probabilities of severe weather. This mornings outlook increased to a 30% probability over the state, risks of large hail & damaging winds are the main ones. Tornado threat doesn't look to be great, but as of now it cannot be ruled out to have a storm or two become capable. A more in depth post on the risks tomorrow will likely come out later tonight. The second risk of potential severe weather is rumored to come next week. The specifics of this one are widely up in the air, but a watchful eye on the extended model runs does show a good system next week. I'll refrain from any comments on that one, as it will change undoubtedly. Look for the first severe weather forecast of the year tonight as the risk comes in Wednesday.