Severe Potential (3/31)

The day 2 outlook this afternoon from the SPC indicated that severe weather was a decent probability over the state tomorrow. Slight risk with 30% probabilities were the exacts, the first day 1 outlook on this event should be issued within 2 hours. Tonights' models are currently making their way into the picture, with the NAM already complete. GFS has been the favored model due to the better handling of the low position as well as frontal positions throughout the entire system this week. I'll hopefully post an update later once the GFS is complete as well as the day 1 outlook is released.

The setup tomorrow may not look spectacular when viewing some of the supercellular parameters, however with such a strong cut-off low pressure system that is winding its' way up into the area the severe potential definitely exists. Very strong lift and vorticity will work its' way into the area during the afternoon hours. Instability will be of interest, depending on how much sun can peak out in the early afternoon and get things warmed up. Shear values should be sufficient, especially along the boundary intersections and near the low. Large hail as well as damaging winds are the main threats mentioned at the moment, however the tornado risk will likely be there. A lot of problems pinpointing the risk as it is doubtful to be looking at a widespread event, better chance at localized areas being prime for the severe weather. Thus all of the state of Iowa, as well as northern MO and Illinois should watch this system to see where it sets up the best potential.

Update Likely Late Tonight... As Well As Early Tomorrow Morning...