The Big Picture

The storm system that has been skirting areas of Iowa yesterday and today is making quite an impact in the central US. Yesterday, the system produced several severe thunderstorms across TX/MO and prompted a tornado watch over areas of Texas that are now being hit by winter weather that is being caused from this same storm. No severe weather to speak of today, at least not yet with this system. Instead, we have winter weather warnings/advisories issued from Texas through portions of OK/AR/MO/KS/IA/IL/IL/WI/MI and the potential for more as this system continues to move east, northeastward. For the latest image on what Warnings/Advisories that have been issued, check out the US Warnings Map from the NWS.

This system is capable of producing quite the winter weather, with such cold air behind it and the ability to bring in moisture from the gulf even behind it is leading to major storm system. Forecasting ice amounts of a tenth of an inch to nearly a half inch of ice are possible in areas of MO/IL and possibly southward as well. Snow amounts in some areas are going to well exceed a foot in central MO and surroundings, with the Kansas City NWS calling for over 16 inches of snow. Even areas of Oklahoma are watching for nearly a foot of snow to fall over today and into tonight. This system could very well be affecting some areas of central plains into tomorrow morning before moving off eastward to affect the northeast. Tomorrow’s update will likely feature plots of the snowfall that occurred today/tonight in those areas providing the NWS has them available.

As for the longer term future of this system, well it could once again be a severe weather producer. As it moves into the northeast, strong southerly winds ahead of it will be bringing up nearly 60 degree dewpoints. Thus providing the area with ample instability for severe weather tomorrow afternoon given daytime heating and moisture return. A line of thunderstorms should already be underway just ahead of the front as it reaches into PA/NY tomorrow afternoon. This line of thunderstorms is likely to intensify as it enters the northeast in the afternoon hours, providing the potential for very damaging winds given the speed of the storms and already high winds that are expected in the area. Strong bow echoes from this linear system may also give way for the potential for supercells as well, capable of a tornado or two given the strong low level shear via the low pressure system. This is something that is not certain as this time, but is being monitored by the Storm Prediction Center as a possibility. Areas of the northeast should definitely be on thel ookout as this system heads there way tomorrow…

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Winter Weather Advisory

Approximately the southeastern half of Iowa has been put under a Winter Weather Advisory for this afternoon/evening. Areas of central Iowa that have been put under this advisory by the Des Moines NWS are forecasted to have a mix of precip throughout the afternoon, turning over to all snow by this evening. Sleet and possible Freezing Rain are possible in those areas, no major accumulation is expected though. Snowfall may be decent at times, total accumulations of around an inch or so can be expected for areas of central Iowa. For the latest Winter Weather Product out of Des Moines, see this link.

Areas of southeast Iowa and eastcentral Iowa are also under a Winter Weather Advisory by the Quad Cities NWS. Their forecast indicates that freezing rain accumulations do seem likely this evening during the first half of the advisory. So essentially from 6 to 9 pm the potential is there for up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. The latter half of the advisory period that goes until midnight will see snowfall as the likely precip. No major accumulations of snow are expected, but an inch seems possible. Even this inch of snow on top of any type of ice could make for a very dangerous situation on roadways, etc. Thus any traveling tonight should be done carefully. For the latest Winter Weather Message from the Quad Cities NWS, see this link.

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Cold Front

The cold front is making its’ way through the state as I write, currently being marked out very well by a line of showers and occasional thundershower. Also coming along with this front is a very sharp drop in temperatures; the cold front came through the Ames area just after 5 pm. The front combined with the loss of the sun really allowed temperatures to drop quickly and they are still dropping now. Here is a cool graph from one of the Ames schools, courtesy of the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

Ames, IA 1-Minute Temperature Plot

Thus, with this passage of the cold front, tonights’ low temperatures should be in the teens for northwest Iowa. While areas of central Iowa should be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Areas of eastern Iowa may not see the cold front pass tonight, thus their lows could be in the 40s and even mid 50s in the extreme southeast. Highs tomorrow will not bounce up much, only lower 20s in northwest Iowa and near 60 where the cold front once again stalls out in the Dubuque to Cedar Rapids line. As this front passes, the precipitation will as well. Meaning areas of western Iowa and most of central Iowa should be done with the rain, although areas of eastern Iowa should see the rain holding on until Wednesday night. The snowfall forecast has dwindled for the most part with only dustings being likely over most of the state. Rain will be the most likely precip to fall over eastern Iowa, although some sleet/snow mix does seem possible tomorrow with any lingering precipitation behind the front. Eastern Iowa may see some of this mix by the time the rain dwindles on Wednesday night.

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Cold Front

The cold front is making its’ way through the state as I write, currently being marked out very well by a line of showers and occasional thundershower. Also coming along with this front is a very sharp drop in temperatures; the cold front came through the Ames area just after 5 pm. The front combined with the loss of the sun really allowed temperatures to drop quickly and they are still dropping now. Here is a cool graph from one of the Ames schools, courtesy of the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

Ames, IA 1-Minute Temperature Plot

Thus, with this passage of the cold front, tonights’ low temperatures should be in the teens for northwest Iowa. While areas of central Iowa should be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Areas of eastern Iowa may not see the cold front pass tonight, thus their lows could be in the 40s and even mid 50s in the extreme southeast. Highs tomorrow will not bounce up much, only lower 20s in northwest Iowa and near 60 where the cold front once again stalls out in the Dubuque to Cedar Rapids line. As this front passes, the precipitation will as well. Meaning areas of western Iowa and most of central Iowa should be done with the rain, although areas of eastern Iowa should see the rain holding on until Wednesday night. The snowfall forecast has dwindled for the most part with only dustings being likely over most of the state. Rain will be the most likely precip to fall over eastern Iowa, although some sleet/snow mix does seem possible tomorrow with any lingering precipitation behind the front. Eastern Iowa may see some of this mix by the time the rain dwindles on Wednesday night.

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Wet & Cold Forecast

A quick forecast for the state of Iowa through the end of the week this week. Starting off with temperature forecasts tomorrow, where lower 50s in the northwest will be in place, but south of the warm front some mid 60s are likely in the southeast portion of the state. Lows tomorrow should be very variable depending on the location of the cold front. Some locations in northwest corner may drop down to near 20 degrees and possibly lower! While areas in the central portion of the state hold in the 30s, the southeast corner of the state with the help of cloudcover and south winds may hold temperatures in the mid 50s for lows! Those temperatures shouldn’t rise too much though no matter where you are, with highs in the lower 20s in the northeast and near 60 in the southeast corner. Temperatures should drop throughout the day and into the night, where the lowest temperatures of the season will be felt in the state. Lows in the west and central portion of the state should be in the teens, while eastern portions of the state should be in the 20s and a couple near 30 marks along the Mississippi. Highs on Thursday begin to rebound, ranging from near 20 to the lower 30s from northwest to southeast. Friday will continue the moderation of temperatures, where mid 30s in the southeast can be found and upper 20s in the northwest.

Precipitation should be found in some form or another, whether its’ rain, snow or sleet and a drizzly fog over the state throughout until Wednesday night. By Wednesday night, precipitation should move off to the east for the most part where the forecasts currently have the rain/snow showers lingering just a bit through the day on Thursday. This is likely just a precaution for the forecast and we should see the precip move out during the morning on Thursday and Thursday night at the latest along the IA/IL border.

As for the type of precipitation, well we should see rain for the most part until early Wednesday morning where snow may begin to fall in the western portion of the state. By Wednesday afternoon, the western half of the state could be seeing a rain/snow mix or snow. Wednesday evening should see the transition in the east, where some freezing rain could be possible as well. Otherwise Wednesday night should see an all snow forecast in the state, although precip could likely be at an end in the west. Any precipitation that can hold in the area during the day on Thursday will likely be falling as snow, as the cold air has taken hold by then.

As for snowfall amounts, by Wednesday evening only areas of western Iowa should see any type of snow at all. Only accumulations coming west of a Mason City to Creston line. Amounts nearing an inch or so could be seen in northwest Iowa by then, otherwise maybe a half inch near the Mason City area. While areas of southwestern Iowa could be looking at only a dusting of snow. Plenty of rain may be seen in the eastern portion of the state though, but this doesn’t seem to be a major concern at the moment as to how much rain will fall.

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Last Weekends’ Weather

Well just a quick review of what happened over the weekend weatherwise and what is continuing into the week on this Monday and Monday night. Saturday was a good day, seeing ‘decent’ temperatures and overall not to bad of a day from what I remember. Sunday was a different story, waking up to see a dense layer of fog throughout the state that continued into the night. This fog was helped along with the drizzle and actual thunderstorms that moved into the area by evening. The cold weather and cold ground prompted several counties in northwest Iowa to go under a Freezing Rain Advisory for a while. Even with the rainfall, the warm front was laid out across the state and thus the same weather exists when this morning began and is still occurring now as we head into Monday night.

Dense fog has existed throughout the day, with visibilities being anywhere from less than a 1/4 mile to around a mile or two in other parts of the state. Currently a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the northwestern half of the state, where fog should continue throughout the night and into the morning with visibilities down to near zero in some areas. Other areas south of the front and where the Fog Advisory has not been issued will still have foggy conditions, but will also be looking at thunderstorms! Several strong cells are featured across the state right now just south of the warm front that cuts the state nearly in half from northeast to southwest.

Another update will be posted in a short while, featuring the forecast for the rest of the week for Iowa.

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Beautiful Thanksgiving Day!

Forecast for the entire Northern Plains looks like it will be quite the day as far as weather is concerned. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the upper 50s and possibly a 60 degree reading in the south to just the mid 50s across northern Iowa. Beings a lot of people are hitting the road for their Thanksgiving to visit family, I’ll give an update on more of the surrounding states as well. Nebraska should see temperatures from the lower 60s in northern sections to the mid 60s in the south. Kansas and Missouri should both range from the lower 60s to upper 60s throughout their respective states as well. To the east of Iowa, Illinois temperatures should range from the lower 50s near Chicago to near 60 degree marks in much of the rest of the state. Wisconsin should see mid 50s in the south, while northern sections may struggle a bit to reach the 50 mark, but otherwise at the lowest a couple of upper 40s for highs. Minnesota should see lower 40s in the northernmost sections of the state, while upper 40s become likely through areas of Duluth to Fargo. South of their highs for Thanksgiving should remain in the lower to mid 50s in the rest of the state. South Dakota highs should be near 60 in the south and west, while other sections of the state remain in lower to mid 50s. North Dakota should be fairly steady across the state, with mid 40s in the northern half to a couple of 50 degree marks in the southern half.

Only precipitation chances should be limited to the western sections of North Dakota and extreme western areas of South Dakota. This is where some possibility of rain/snow showers has been forecasted, amounts seem to be very light, so drizzle or flurries seems to be the better wording. Otherwise the rest of the northern plains looks to stay dry for the day. That area of precip should continue to move eastward, affecting mainly areas of ND and into MN on Friday, still nothing heavy expected at this point. Temperatures for the weekend look to slowly drop as cold air makes’ its’ way into the plains. By Sunday, highs should range from near 50 in southern Iowa/Nebraska to only the mid 20s in northern ND/MN. Precipitation chances don’t seem to jump up to much with this next system, although I suggest to keep a watchful eye on the forecast for Monday/Tuesday next week as this system could affect some areas of the plains.

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Winter Still Coming…

First off I need to mention extreme areas of northwest Iowa as well as adjacent areas to the west are under a Freezing Rain Advisory tomorrow morning. The latest text on that advisory for the nearby area can be found here.

This has been in the forecast for quite a few days, each day in which there should be a better idea of what is going to happen is completely opposite. Models came together a few days ago and had a decent idea, making most forecasters believe that they have caught on and should begin to hone in on the solution. Well since that day they have slowly trended warm, cold and now back to warm this morning. Along with trending the low pressure system further to the south with each of the last 4 or 5 runs. Well, tonights’ models’ are going to keep that trend alive, pushing it even 50 miles further south and going opposite temperature wise again, this time going fairly cool.

The lows track was always stated as being important to what type of precipitation you are going to get, well the low is on a current track to pass through Kansas into northern Missouri by Friday morning. This is slower than previously thought and much further south, given trends and current pressure drops in the south the low should begin to take shape over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles tonight and continue to take shape through the day tomorrow as it finally starts to move into southcentral Kansas. By Thursday is should continue to slowly move across Kansas and enter into Northern Missouri early on Friday as it weakens and dissolves into the normal flow during Friday afternoon. The strength of this low is hard to figure out, as it seemingly fluctuates its’ strength over time. With it being a stacked cold core low, once it enters into the central plains it shouldn’t be able to last much more than 48 hours before falling apart completely.

As for the precipitation around this low, currently large amounts of rain/freezing rain and snow are falling across Texas/Oklahoma and Kansas as well as the intermountain areas. Also looks like some light areas of freezing rain are already possible over areas of NE/SD and potentially into IA/MN early morning tomorrow. Tomorrow should features snow across Texas and Oklahoma panhandles’, as well as extreme western Kansas, Colorado and western Nebraska. Freezing rain looks possible just east of that area, through central Nebraska, western Kansas and into eastern portions of the panhandles. During the night on Wednesday and into Thursday snow should continue to move north, putting areas of central/western Nebraska, northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado and into southern South Dakota. Freezing rain looks possible along a line from 50 miles west of Sioux Falls, SD up to Minneapolis, MN and anywhere 100 miles north/south of that line. Thus, putting northwest Iowa in a shot for a tenth or two of freezing rain by latest forecasts…

If you would like a quick forecast made by me, be sure to leave a comment and I will try and answer it with the latest forecast for you. Thanks… Another update sometime tomorrow with the latest on warnings in the area and updated forecasts.

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Thanksgiving Break Forecast!

Well, at least the college students will have all of next week off and I know most people will get the latter half of the week off. So, how about a nice first forecast for the vacation week! Keep in mind with the forecast beings such a long range one that it will likely change somewhat, hopefully this will be a good enough rough idea to what is likely to happen over the next week.

The drive home for the college students shouldn’t be too bad, some sunshine which will allow highs ranging from near 50 in southern Iowa to the lower 40s across northern sections. Friday night should see lows drop from the upper 20s in eastern Iowa to the upper teens in northwestern Iowa. The weekend should hold highs of the lower 40s across the state on Saturday, continuing the lower 40s in the east on Sunday, while the west should see a slight warmup to the mid to maybe upper 40s. Lows during the weekend should range from the upper teens in the northwest to the upper 20s in the southeast during Saturday night. Sunday nights’ lows should be fairly uniform across the state; in the mid to upper 20s throughout.

The first half of the week should see high temperatures slowly rise. Northeastern portions of the state should see upper 40s on Monday, with near 50 in Tuesday and lower 50s by Wednesday. Southwestern portions of the state should start out in the mid 50s, slowly working their way up to near 60 by Wednesday. Other areas of the state should see temperatures within those same ranges. Lows early in the week should be somewhat uniform across the state, ranging from the lower 30s to the mid 30s.

By the time vacation time comes around for everybody, temperatures actually look as if they might fall back down a bit. Although this is a long ways out, temperatures currently look to fall a couple of degrees for Turkey day. I’ll hopefully get an update sometime early in the week next week, hope this does some good for now.

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Snowfall Amounts

Updated @ 1:30 PM

Snowfall amounts through the northern portion of Iowa are well above what was expected last night and even this morning. As the system moved through the area, sufficient moisture and some instability in the atmosphere actually allowed for some strong thunderstorms in the state. Some of the thunderstorms were even included in the snowfall across the state, several reports of thundersnow have been seen. Total amounts for snow are significant in some areas, a list of some of the higher amounts in areas listed below.

Worthington, MN: 4 Inches
Jackson, MN: 5 Inches
LuVerne, MN: 1 Inch

Sibley, IA: 1 Inch
Cherokee, IA: 4 Inches
Spirit Lake, IA: 5 Inches
Spencer, IA: 6 Inches
Sioux Rapids, IA: 6 Inches
Storm Lake, IA: 4 Inches
Emmetsburg, IA: 9 Inches
Swea City, IA: 6.6 Inches
Thompson, IA: 10 Inches
Ames, IA: 1 Inch
Des Moines, IA: 1 Inch

Several other reports of snow throughout northeast IA/southeast MN and into Wisconsin. Many of those reports ranged from 4-8 inches of snow, more still falling in some of those locations now. Several winter storm warnings were issued, along with heavy snow warnings, winter weather advisories, snow advisories, etc… Very impressive first winter storm that went across the state today, I do have some pictures from the ISU Dorms of the snow falling and what it currently looks like after the snow has now stopped. Those are linked below:

Snow Falling in Ames
Ames Snowfall

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Nov. 9 Winter Storm (Forecast #1)

This is forecast #1 for the winter storm possible on mainly November 9th across MN/IA/WI. For now, looks like through Midnight, snow flurries to some moderate snow could occur in SD and in southwest MN. Otherwise rain and rain/snow mix in northwest Iowa. As we head overnight, heavier precip should fall throughout SD and into IA/MN. It should remain as mostly rain through IA, with mainly snow in MN and heavier snow possible in SD. By sunrise the snow should make its’ way into northern IA and also start to become heavier in MN/WI. Continuing through the noon hour heavier snow should begin throughout the northern 2/3rds of Iowa as well as southern MN and all of WI, that should continue through most of the afternoon and evening possibly. By tomorrow night we should see the snow taper off in all but WI…

Potential Snow Amounts:

Pierre, SD: 0-1 Inch
Aberdeen, SD: 0-1 Inch
Sioux Falls, SD: 0-1 Inch

Pipestone, MN: 0-1 Inch
Minneapolis: 0-1 Inch
Mankato, MN: 2-4 Inches

Sioux City, IA: 0-1/2 Inch
Ft. Dodge, IA: 1-2 Inches
Waterloo, IA: 1-2 Inches
Dubuque, IA: 0-1/2 Inch

LaCrosse, WI: 4-6 Inches
Wausau, WI: 4-7 Inches

As you can see, heavier snow amounts will likely be found in southeastern MN and into WI. Otherwise, a big mix of precip will be found across Iowa, as you could see quite a variance in the amounts forecasted depending on how quickly it turns over. Difficult forecasting situation, but definitely worth the watch as some areas of the northern plains are likely to see their first significant snowfall. To keep up with the latest discussion please read the forums thread, or the Watches/Advisories thread.

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McCarney Resignation

Well, the time came, after all of the weeks of talk throughout Cyclone Nation the time came that head coach Dan McCarney announced that he will resign once this years’ games are complete. In case you are unaware of what may have led up to this, a quick review. 2004 & 2005 saw the ISU football team make tremendous efforts to win the big 12 North title. But, both times coming down to the final regular season game in which Iowa State led, they failed to finish it off. With expectations high with tremendous offensive talent, the team struggled this year, barely winning over Toledo in the home opener in 3OT’s; Squeaking by UNLV and by Division II team Northern Iowa… Add on top the toughest schedule in Cyclone history and one of the toughest in the nation this year and the team now sits at 3-7 on the year. No bowl game even in sight for a team that was expected to put up a great fight for the big 12 north title once again this year.

But, those are the negatives of the McCarney era! McCarney was brought into the program over 12 years ago to turn around a team that hadn’t had consecutive winning seasons since, well nobody can really remember! He did turn the program around, put it on the map as it has been said throughout the season looking back on things. Making Iowa State a potential contender for conference titles and a name often heard in the bowl season for the first time in its’ history. A complete losing program, declared to be one of the worst in the nation is now a fairly respected team. This has all been done thanks to his work here, which shouldn’t go unnoticed. A lot of the things that are being said are probably things that you will hear all the time from people, but I still gotta say what I feel. Honestly, I thought that McCarney would be here for one more season, that one last hope with Meyer and Blythe next year for them to do something great. But, that was before this latest weekends lashing from a Kansas team which was probably and simply unacceptable by the programs’ standards. With all of the talk throughout the fans, you knew it was coming… Although even through all of the weeks of talk to the players, staff and even to McCarney and his staff, it was consistently said that it would be the end of the season before something was done. The only thing that is the mystery to me was why it was made at this time, why not wait until the end of the season or was their finally to much pressure on everybody to hold back the obvious thing that was likely to occur. Don’t know and that was never really explained from what I heard at the conference…

All in all… Coach Mac had a great tenure here at Iowa State, I hope he is still shown respect from the Cyclone fans for all that he really has done for the program. It was time to move on and that is what has happened… I hope that the last two games for the Cyclones finish off on a positive note and can get the things rolling for next season as that is what we have to look forward too now as Cyclone fans. I can’t wait to see what the Pollards’ staff can bring in for a head coach and staff next year. I’m sure I missed over quite a few things that I wanted to say, but either way, I got my point/review across. Thanks for reading…

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